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Semi-Final Draw Is it rigged?

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    Semi-Final Draw Is it rigged?

    In short, I don't think so. there aren't enough data to state with any degree of confidence that the draw is rigged.

    In response to a query on another thread, I did some digging to look at the “luck of the draw” in deciding semi-final venues. A few points first:
    · The Semi-Final draws were made after the Group stages were over, when there were still eight teams left in contention.
    · It is unclear, from on-line sources, and from my memory how the venues for the first few Heineken Cups were decided. In any case, home venues were used in all cases ‘till 2000 when the concept of “neutral venues in the home Country of one of the competing teams” was introduced.
    · Looking at how many home semi-finals Munster played in is misleading, to a certain extent. In 2006, Munster were drawn away but played Leinster in Lansdowne. In 2012, they were drawn at home but lost the Quarter-Final.
    · A better way is to look at the draws in the individual years.
    2000: Toulouse or Montferrand v Munster or Stade Francais; Northampton or Wasps v Llanelli or Cardiff.

    2001: Stade Francais or Pau v Munster or BOPB; Leicester or Swansea v Gloucester or Cardiff.

    2002: Castres or Montferrand v Stade Francais or Munster; Leicester or Leinster v Bath or Llanelli

    2003: Toulouse or Northampton v Leicester or Munster; Leinster or BOPB v Llanelli or USAP

    2004: Munster or Stade Francais v Wasps or Gloucester; Toulouse or Edinburgh v Llanelli or BOPB

    2005: Stade Francais or Newcastle v BOPB or Munster; Leinster or Leicester v Toulouse or
    Northampton

    2006: Toulouse or Leinster v Munster or USAP; BOPB or Sale v Leicester or Bath

    2007: Leicester or Stade Francais v Llanelli or Munster; Wasps or Leinster v BOPB or Northampton

    2008: London Irish or USAP v Toulouse or Cardiff; Saracens or Opsreys v Gloucester or Munster.

    2009: Munster or Ospreys v Harlequins or Leinster; Cardiff or Toulouse v Leicester or Bath.

    2010: BOPB or Ospreys v Munster or Northampton; Toulouse or Stade Francais v Leinster or Clermont.

    2011: Northampton or Ulster v USAP or Toulon; Leinster or Leicester v BOPB or Toulouse

    2012: Munster or Ulster v Edinburgh or Toulouse; Clermont or Saracens v Leinster or Cardiff

    2013: Clermont or Montpellier v Harlequins or Munster; Saracens or Ulster v Toulon or Leicester

    2014: Toulon or Leinster v Munster or Toulouse; Ulster or Saracens v Clermont or Leicester

    2015: Toulon or Wasps v Leinster or Bath; Clermont or Northampton v Racing or Saracens.

    In the 16 years above, Munster qualified for 14 Quarter-Finals. Of those, they were drawn at home in 3 and away in 11. They lost three Quarter-Finals, ending up playing in 2 home Semi-Finals (one v Leinster) and 10 away Semi-Finals (one v Leinster)
    Taking the first three years, Munster played a French team in the Quarter-Final each year and were then drawn to play one of two French teams in the Semi-Final. If the draw was being fiddled to benefit France, you’d imagine that the French teams would have been kept apart in the draw, thus putting Munster into the other Semi-Final.
    In 2005, there were three French teams in different Quarter-Finals but only one of them got a home Semi-Final draw.
    The thing is, the draw in any given year is unconnected with the draw in any other year. If I toss a coin, the odds of it falling heads or harps is 50-50. If I toss it again, the second result is completely unconnected with the first. Over time, the results will end up 50-50. 14 draws, however are insufficient to establish this result.

    Summary:
    France England Ireland Wales Scotland
    In
    QF
    Home In QF Home In QF Home In QF Home In QF Home
    Draw SF Draw SF Draw SF Draw SF Draw SF
    00 3 2 1 2 2 1 1 0 0 2 0 0 0 0 0
    01 3 2 1 2 1 1 1 0 0 2 1 0 0 0 0
    02 3 2 1 2 1 1 2 1 0 1 0 0 0 0 0
    03 3 2 1 2 1 0 2 1 1 1 0 0 0 0 0
    04 3 2 1* 2 0 0 1 1 1 1 0 0 1 1 0
    05 3 1 1* 3 2 1 2 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
    06 3 2 1 3 1 0 2 1 1* 0 0 0 0 0 0
    07 2 1 0 3 2 2* 2 1 0 1 0 0 0 0 0
    08 2 1 0 3 2 2 1 0 0 2 1 0 0 0 0
    09 1 1 0 3 0 0 2 1 1* 2 2 1 0 0 0
    10 4 3 2 1 0 0 2 0 0 1 1 0 0 0 0
    11 4 0 0 2 2 1 2 2 1 0 0 0 0 0 0
    12 2 1 1 1 1 0 3 2 1 1 0 0 1 0 0
    13 3 2 1 3 1 1 2 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
    14 3 1 1 2 1 1 3 2 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
    15 3 2 2 4 2 0 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
    * Teams from the same country in one Semi-Final
    Last edited by Piquet; 20th-April-2015, 08:10.

    #2
    So Piquet, how many draws are required to be statistically significant?
    "We are going to hope to keep improving the environment in Munster. It’s about improving and setting standards where players and coaches can improve. Hopefully we can offer that more than just money.” Johann Van Graan 20/12/2017

    Comment


      #3
      What about the ambient temperature of Jean Pierre's boules?
      The Beatings Will Continue Until Morale Improves

      Comment


        #4
        Originally posted by FORWARD.... View Post
        So Piquet, how many draws are required to be statistically significant?
        you need to give it a right good toss for your balls to even out 50-50!
        Tic-Toc. POC and DOC. Stop the clock.

        Comment


          #5
          Steady.....
          "There are a lot of points that we’ve left behind and this is with a young group. That probably tells you what they’re capable of and that they’re a very good side.

          Probably next year or the year after next they will take some stopping"

          Anthony Foley, May 2016. Axel RIP

          Comment


            #6
            I have a problem. All that brilliant work on the stats and all I can focus on is the 'form' instead of 'from' in the last sentence. I think I need to relax.
            Last edited by Taran; 19th-April-2015, 22:13. Reason: Because I can't form a proper sentence when writing on this Internet thing.

            Comment


              #7
              were we not at home in 2006?
              I'm pretty sure that in 2000 anyway, and I think for a few years afterward the semi draws took place after the quarters, not after the groups
              Seven social sins: politics without principles, wealth without work, pleasure without conscience, knowledge without character, commerce without morality, science without humanity, and worship without sacrifice



              Comment


                #8
                It is rigged.

                Comment


                  #9
                  Politics beat statistics. BOPB proved that when they were in their pomp and the ERC were bending over backwards to keep them interested in the competition.

                  I don't think there's any need to bend the rules for the French now. I think their top clubs at least have bought in to the European Cup, you can see that in the fans - silence for the kicker at Racing Metro FFS - and the players - Abendenon name checking winning in Thomond Park on TV when he said "we really feel this is our year". It was the H Cup he was talking about.

                  Jesus we really owe Clermont a battering. I hope we get them next year.
                  Munster – Champions of Europe 2006, 2008, 2019.

                  Comment


                    #10
                    Originally posted by scotscor View Post
                    were we not at home in 2006?
                    I'm pretty sure that in 2000 anyway, and I think for a few years afterward the semi draws took place after the quarters, not after the groups
                    Away.
                    Ceterum censeo INM irrumandum esse.

                    Comment


                      #11
                      I think the final is a fair representation of where clubs are in European standings, the two best teams in Europe are in the final on merit, not through any rigging of the semis, it's more likely the pools that are rigged to favour the Nigel's. But the last eight and four show that really the English clubs are ****e.
                      psychoanalysis is wasted on the Irish; Sigmund Freud

                      Comment


                        #12
                        Originally posted by scotscor View Post
                        were we not at home in 2006?
                        I'm pretty sure that in 2000 anyway, and I think for a few years afterward the semi draws took place after the quarters, not after the groups
                        No, we were (at least I was) resigned to an away trip to France until our good friends from Dublin beat Toulouse.

                        Comment


                          #13
                          Originally posted by rathbaner View Post
                          Politics beat statistics. BOPB proved that when they were in their pomp and the ERC were bending over backwards to keep them interested in the competition.

                          The numbers are against you, BOPB were drawn at home three times and away five times out of eight.

                          Comment


                            #14
                            Originally posted by Piquet View Post
                            No, we were (at least I was) resigned to an away trip to France until our good friends from Dublin beat Toulouse.
                            Offaly hurler slow off the mark?

                            No change there, then...
                            Ceterum censeo INM irrumandum esse.

                            Comment


                              #15
                              Ye weren't that quick off the mark yesterday, yeerselves!

                              Winning the last ten minutes 1-6 to a point looks like ye were taking a leaf from the Offaly Playbook n'est pas?

                              The original post related to the fact that no-one outside Donnybrook thought Leinster would win in Toulouse.

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