No announcement yet.

Panoramic View as we enter the final stages

  • Filter
  • Time
  • Show
Clear All
new posts

    Panoramic View as we enter the final stages

    Its **** or bust time for Munster but here is the overall vista

    Only two unbeaten teams remain. Only one of them has a 100% record. Treviso still have no points. 28 Bonus Points have been earned, 11 Try Bonuses and 17 losing Bonuses.

    Where teams are level on points in a Pool, the first Tie-breaker between the teams is the Match Points in the Head to Head fixtures between the teams. Unlike previous years, however, where the Match Points are level, the next tie-breaker is Points Difference rather than Tries Scored.
    Where teams finish level on points and are in different pools, Points Difference is again the first Tiebreaker. Tries are next, then the fewer cited players and finally Lots

    Pool One
    Clermont 4 3 0 1 100 61 39 11 5 1 1 14 3
    Saracens 4 3 0 1 80 67 13 9 7 1 0 13 7
    Munster 4 2 0 2 69 71 -2 5 7 0 2 10
    Sale 4 0 0 4 59 109 -50 6 12 0 2 2

    Remaining Fixtures:

    Round Five: 17th Jan 13:00 Saracens v Munster BT ; 17:30 Sale v Clermont Sky
    Round Six: 25th Jan 15:15 Munster v Sale Sky; Clermont v Saracens BT.

    OK, we’re almost at Squeaky Bum Time but not quite.
    Clermont are looking good to win the Pool. They have to be fancied to beat Sale next time out and if they do, any win over Saracens will put them through in first place on 22 points at least.

    Munster’s possible route to the Quarter Finals is set out clearly. Win in Barnet and Thomond, get 18, 19 or maybe 20 points and see how things end up. Winning the Pool is almost certainly out of range. To do that would require getting five points more than Clermont get and three points more than Saracens get in the last two rounds. While the latter can be achieved by winning in Barnet, the former requires Clermont to slip up either in Salford (unlikely) or at home to Saracens in Round Six (even more unlikely) Any loss in Barnet means Munster cannot win the Pool and makes their maximum total 17 which is unlikely to be enough for a second placed qualifying spot.
    A draw would only be of any use if Clermont slip up in Salford.

    Saracens need to beat Munster to maintain their chances of winning the pool but they’ll also need to win in Clermont to be sure, unless Clermont slip up.

    Sale are out. Their only function at this stage is as possible spoilers for Clermont (unlikely) or Munster

    Pool Two

    Harlequins 4 3 0 1 85 57 28 6 2 0 1 13 5
    Leinster 4 3 0 1 78 73 5 4 5 0 1 13 8
    Wasps 4 2 0 2 112 82 30 14 10 2 2 12
    Castres 4 0 0 4 59 122 -63 6 12 0 1 1
    Remaining Fixtures:
    Round 5;17th Jan 17:30 Leinster v Castres Sky ; 19:45 Harlequins v Wasps BT
    Round 6: 24th Jan 13:00 Wasps v Leinster BT ; Castres v Harlequins BT

    Leinster have maintained their interest in the competition but have lost the head to head over ‘Quins. They, therefore, need to get a point more than ‘Quins do in the next two rounds to win the Pool. They have Castres in the RDS next time out and will probably get a fiver. A win in Coventry in Round Six would win them the Pool if ‘Quins have slipped up in Coventry in the previous round. If not, 13 already + 5 against Castres + 4 in Coventry would get them 22 Points and into the Quarters in second place.

    Harlequins just need to match Leinster’s total in the last two rounds to win the Pool. Failing that, two wins will put them on 21 or 22 points and almost certainly through as a second placed team.
    Two wins for Wasps would probably win them the Pool, depending on how many Bonuses Leinster and Wasps get. Again, 20/21/22 would probably be enough to get through in second place.

    Castres are history.

    Pool Three
    Toulon 4 3 0 1 95 64 31 9 5 0 1 13 4
    Leicester 5 3 0 2 101 100 1 11 11 1 0 13 9
    Llanelli 5 2 0 3 87 108 -21 8 14 0 0 8
    Ulster 4 1 0 3 68 79 -11 8 6 1 1 6
    Remaining Fixtures:
    Round 5: 17th Jan 15:15 (Irish) Toulon v Ulster Sky
    Round 6: 24th Jan 17:30 Ulster v Leicester Sky; Llanelli v Toulon Sky

    Toulon are in pole position here. Six points from the last two games makes them uncatchable.
    It is still possible for Ulster to qualify, but they need to beat Toulon away and Leicester at home and get eight points more than Toulon do, two points more than Llanelli do and either three points more than Leicester do or turn over the head to head over Leicester. This is unlikely, to say the least. Ulster’s maximum total is 16 which won’t be enough to get a second placed spot.

    Leicester might catch Toulon, but of course Toulon would have to slip up to allow this.
    Last edited by Piquet; 17th-January-2015, 09:25.

    Pool Four
    Toulouse 4 4 0 0 82 62 20 7 4 0 0 16 1
    Glasgow 4 2 0 2 72 54 18 6 3 1 1 10 10
    Bath 4 2 0 2 91 75 16 8 11 1 1 10
    Montpellier 4 0 0 4 53 107 -54 6 9 0 2 2
    Remaining Fixtures:
    Round 5: 18th Jan 13:00 Glasgow v Montpellier Sky; 15:15 (Irish) Toulouse v Bath BT
    Round 6: 25th Jan 13:00 Bath v Glasgow BT ; Montpellier v Toulouse Sky.

    Toulouse are the only 100% team left in the competition and are even further ensconced in Pole position than Toulon are. Five Points from here wins them the pool. you would fancy them to win both their remaining matches, end up on 24 points minimum and be at home in the Quarter Finals.

    Glasgow have a good chance of getting second place in this pool purely on the basis of not having to play Toulouse any more. They do have to travel to the Rec in Round Six, though.

    Two wins for Bath would put them on 18. They have to travel to Toulouse so maybe not.

    Ideally for Munster, Toulouse would beat Bath who would then beat Glasgow leaving both of the latter out of the running for the last second placed spot.
    Montpellier are out.

    Pool Five
    Northampton 4 3 0 1 150 41 109 22 4 3 0 15 2
    Racing 4 3 1 0 83 54 29 7 6 0 0 14 6
    Ospreys 4 1 1 2 81 78 3 8 8 1 1 8
    Treviso 4 0 0 4 32 173 -141 4 24 0 0 0
    Remaining Fixtures:
    Round Five: 18th Jan 17:30 Ospreys v Northampton BT; Racing Metro v Treviso
    Round Six: 24th Jan 15:15 Northampton v Racing Metro BT; Treviso v Ospreys Sky

    Unless Racing slip up badly on Sunday, all will be decided in Round Six in the Gardens. Even if Northampton lose in the Liberty getting nowt and Racing get a fiver, a win for Northampton in the last round would be enough as long as they overturn the head to head ( 4-0, +9 and 2 Tries to one to Racing )

    Ospreys might still win this Pool with fivers in both their remaining matches but that would require Northampton and Racing to get no points in Round Five and to draw 2-2 or 3-2 to Racing in Round Six. A 3-3 draw would be OK if Ospreys beat Northampton by 29 Points or by 28 points and five tries.
    Treviso are out.
    Whoever comes second in this Pool will probably get a second placed spot. See below.

    At present, the Rankings are as shown in the right-hand column.

    The Quarter Finals would be:

    Toulouse v Leinster
    Northampton v Saracens
    Clermont v Racing
    Toulon v Harlequins.
    Last edited by Piquet; 17th-January-2015, 09:07.


      The race for second place.

      At present, the Teams that are concerned in the second placed race are as follows:
      Pool Team P Pos Points PD
      5 Northampton 4 1 15 109
      5 Racing 4 2 14 29
      1 Saracens 4 2 13 13
      2 Harlequins 4 1 13 28
      2 Leinster 4 2 13 5
      3 Leicester 5 2 13 1
      2 Wasps 4 3 12 30
      4 Glasgow 4 2 10 18
      4 Bath 4 3 10 16
      1 Munster 4 3 10 -2
      3 Llanelli 5 3 8 -21
      It is, of course, not as simple as that.
      If Racing win their last two matches, they will win their Pool and Northampton come into the reckoning with 15 points plus whatever they get from the Liberty on Sunday plus whatever they get when losing to Racing. 20, say, and a massive PD.

      Of course, if Racing were to lose in the Gardens, their max would be 14 plus whatever they get from (probably ) beating Treviso (H) 4, say, plus whatever they get when losing to Northampton 1, say, leaving them on 19 and a PD in the 30s or 40s.

      If Munster win their last two matches, then they will be on 18 at least and Saracens will be on whatever they get when losing tomorrow plus what they get in the Michelin in Round Six. 17 max.

      Would that be enough for Munster ? Not to pass out the Pool 5 runners up.

      Let’s look at Pool 2.

      If Leinster keep winning, they’ll be on 21 points at least and could either win the Pool or be second.
      The same goes for ‘Quins.

      If Wasps beat both Leinster and ‘Quins, they’ll be on 20 points minimum and would win the pool unless Leinster or ‘Quins or both got all available bonuses.

      In that, latter scenario, given that both Leinster and ‘Quins are playing Castres, you’d have to think that one or both of them would get a fiver, putting them on 18 each plus what they would get from losing to Wasps 1, say, leaving one or both of them on 19.
      That would be ahead of Munster.

      Pool 3.
      Leicester are on 13. The most they can get is 18 which necessitates a fiver in Ravenhill next week. Possible, I suppose but unlikely. Of course should Toulon implode and only get four points from here, 18 would win the pool. Llanelli are history.

      Pool Four.
      Both Glasgow and Bath can get 20 points maximum. In Bath’s case this involves getting a fiver in Toulouse on Sunday (unlikely) and another at home to Glasgow in Round Six. A more likely scenario is one or none and four or five respectively leaving them on 14 to 16.
      Glasgow have the “easier” ” task, not having to play Toulouse, but will hardly get a fiver in Bath. They are more likely to be on a similar total to Bath.
      If they do win in Bath they would be on 18 at least.

      Wins for Toulouse in Round Five and Bath in Round Six would be ideal for Munster.


      · Munster need to get two wins to get second place.
      · If they manage that, they need to be ahead of two of the other Pool Runners-up to qualify.
      · They are unlikely to be ahead of the Pool 2 and 5 Runners up.
      · They are likely to be ahead of the Pool 3 runners up.
      · They need Toulouse to beat Bath and Bath to beat Glasgow to be sure of being ahead of the Pool 4 Runners up.
      · Bonus points would also help.

      We'll know a lot lot more on Sunday night.
      Last edited by Piquet; 17th-January-2015, 09:05. Reason: Included Friday's match.


        The placings from the various leagues and the various seeds are
        League 1 2 3 4
        LNR 3 1 0 2
        Pro12 0 3 2 2
        PRL 3 1 3 1
        Seed 1 2 3 4
        1 2 3 0 0
        2 0 1 2 2
        3 2 0 2 1
        4 1 1 1 2
        Of the top five seeds from the draw, two, Toulon and Northampton are leading their pool and three, Saracens, Leinster and Glasgow, are second.
        The other Pool leaders are Clermont and Harlequins from Pot Three and Toulouse from Pot Four.


          You think I'd be used to you pulling this information out like that but I am in awe every time.
          Tic-Toc. POC and DOC. Stop the clock.


            Piquet,well done, someone with that much info.must surely know where a ticket can be sourced,on the national express from stansted. All human life is here.


              My clairvoyant abilities still say that Clermont blow up in Sale tomorrow. You read it here first. :-)
              "We will not walk in fear, one of another. We will not be driven into an age of unreason if we dig deep into our history and remember we are not descended from fearful men" Edward R Murrow

              "Little by little, we have been brought into the present condition in which we are able neither to tolerate the evils from which we suffer, nor the remedies we need to cure them." - Livy

              "I think that progress has been made by two flames that have always been burning in the human heart. The flame of anger against injustice and the flame of hope that you can build a better world" - Tony Benn


                I was thinking that today too..
                He was as lame as a duck. Not the metaphorical lame duck either, but a real duck that was actually lame. Maybe from stepping on a land mine or something.


                  Originally posted by at home in the stands View Post
                  Piquet,well done, someone with that much info.must surely know where a ticket can be sourced,on the national express from stansted. All human life is here.
                  I'd say if you get into as many pubs as you can tonight and in the morning where Munster Fans are gathered and hustle. Talk to as many people as possible let them know you are looking for a ticket. Barstaff too.

                  YOu never know what might turn up.

                  Keep an eye on here as well.