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Heineken Cup Round Four Review What Happens next

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    Heineken Cup Round Four Review What Happens next

    Pool One
    P W D L F A PD TF TA TB LB Pts Pos
    Leinster 4 3 0 1 87 41 46 8 4 1 0 13 6
    Northampton 4 2 0 2 65 84 -19 7 8 0 1 9 12
    Castres 4 2 0 2 53 62 -9 2 2 0 0 8
    Ospreys 4 1 0 3 55 73 -18 1 4 0 1 5
    Remaining Fixtures:
    Round 5 Castres v Leinster, Ospreys v Northampton.
    Round 6 Leinster v Ospreys , Northampton v Castres.

    A major slip-up by Leinster in Round Four but nowhere near being terminal. Six more points will win the Pool so it’s in their own hands. They could even wrap things up next time out by winning in Castres if the Ospreys beat Northampton.

    Northampton need things to go their way. Two wins would put them on 17 at least and hoping that Leinster lose one of their games or preferably both. They need to overtake Leinster having lost the Head-to-Head 4-5.

    Castres also need favours elsewhere to win the pool. They’re 0-4 down, level on tries and 8 points down from the RDS so their second priority (after the win) next time out v Leinster, is to turn that over. If they were to do that, they would go to Franklin’s Gardens in the last round at most two points behind Northampton and a victory could win the Pool, depending on what happens in the RDS between Leinster and the Ospreys.

    Ospreys are bottom but, believe it or not, are still in with an outside chance of winning out. Two wins would put them on 13 at least. If Castres beat Leinster and Northampton beat Castres, then all four teams would be on three wins each with bonus points and the various head-to heads deciding things. The Ospreys have won the Head-to-Head against Castres 5-4. They are 1-4, one try and seven points down to Leinster and 0-4, two tries and nine points down to Northampton in the respective head to heads. Given that they have only scored one try so far, it’s a big ask!

    As usual at this stage, a lot will depend on Castres’s attitude. If they decide to “focus on the T14” to use the euphemism, then the Ospreys become the Kingmakers.



    Pool Two

    P W D L F A PD TF TA TB LB Pts Pos
    Toulon 4 3 0 1 112 76 36 11 7 2 1 15 4
    Cardiff 4 3 0 1 86 86 0 7 9 1 0 13 9
    Exeter 4 1 0 3 89 95 -6 9 11 1 2 7
    Glasgow 4 1 0 3 75 105 -30 9 9 1 1 6
    Remaining Fixtures:
    Round 5 Exeter v Glasgow, Toulon v Cardiff
    Round 6 Cardiff v Exeter, Glasgow v Toulon.

    Toulon can win the Pool next time out with a win. Another win in Glasgow would get them a home Quarter Final on 23 at least.

    Cardiff need to win in Toulon and at home to Exeter in the last round to win the Pool. A draw
    in Toulon would also do but only if Toulon slip up in Glasgow.

    Exeter can still win the Pool but only with a Five pointer v Glasgow and Cardiff winning 4-0, or 4-1 next time out and a 5-0 over Cardiff in Round Six and Glasgow beating Toulon 5-0, 5-1, 4-0 or 4-1.

    Glasgow cannot win the Pool.

    Pool Three

    P W D L F A PD TF TA TB LB Pts Pos
    Toulouse* 4 3 0 1 106 46 60 15 3 2 1 15 2
    Saracens* 4 3 0 1 142 47 95 17 5 2 1 15 7
    Connacht 4 2 0 2 75 80 -5 5 9 0 1 9
    Zebre 4 0 0 4 24 174 -150 2 13 0 0 0
    Remaining Fixtures
    Round 5 Toulouse v Saracens Connacht v Zebre
    Round 6 Saracens v Connacht Zebre v Toulouse.

    * Some sources have Saracens top. This is wrong. Toulouse lead on the head to head at present.

    This Pool will be decided next time out in Toulouse. A win for either side will win them the Pool, barring a major turn-up in Round Six. The draw would favour Toulouse, with them leading the head to head 4-1, by one try and one point. [3-2 in a draw to Sarries would obviously put them one point ahead but they would have to match Toulouse’s points against Zebre when they play Connacht.]

    For Connacht to win the Pool they must win both remaining games with at least one bonus and hope that Toulouse and Sarries draw 2-2 and get no more points. 3-2 to Sarries would also do. If Connacht got two bonuses, a 4-1 or 4-2 win for Sarries would also do but Sarries mustn’t get any points v Connacht.


    Pool Four

    P W D L F A PD TF TA TB LB Pts Pos
    Clermont 4 3 0 1 95 53 42 11 4 2 1 15 3
    Harlequins 4 2 0 2 91 67 24 8 7 1 2 11 10
    Scarlets 4 1 1 2 83 115 -32 7 12 0 0 6
    Racing 4 1 1 2 50 84 -34 4 7 0 0 6
    Remaining Fixtures
    Round 5 Harlequins v Clermont Racing v Scarlets
    Round 6 Clermont v Racing Scarlets v Harlequins

    This Pool will be decided, in all probability, in The Stoop next time out. Clermont are 4-1, two tries and seven points ahead on the Head to Head.
    Any win or a 3-2 draw wins Clermont the pool. A 3-3 or 2-2 draw would leave them needing one point from the last round. A 2-3 draw would necessitate two points in Round Six.

    Given that Clermont host Racing in Round 6 and the recent form/attitude of the latter, Harlequins need to beat Clermont to have any realistic hopes of Pool victory. Not any win will do, though. 5-0, 5-1 or 4-0 would do nicely, putting them ahead in the table in the former case and in the head to head in the latter two. 5-2, 4-1 or 4-2 would still leave Clermont ahead in the table. Of course ‘Quins would also have to beat Scarlets in Llanelli.

    For Scarlets to win the Pool, they must win get bonus point wins in both games, hope that ‘Quins beat Clermont depriving Clermont of any points and that ‘Quins get a maximum of five points from the last two games.

    A similar task confronts Racing although in their case ‘Quins may only get four maximum and Clermont may get one.

    Pool Five

    P W D L F A PD TF TA TB LB Pts Pos
    Ulster 4 4 0 0 130 27 103 13 2 2 0 18 1
    Leicester 4 3 0 1 106 71 35 11 7 2 1 15 8
    Montpellier 4 1 0 3 81 91 -10 9 8 1 1 6
    Treviso 4 0 0 4 16 144 -128 1 17 0 0 0
    Remaining Fixtures
    Round 5 Ulster v Montpellier Treviso v Leicester
    Round 6 Leicester v Ulster Montpellier v Treviso

    If Ulster beat Montpellier next time out going to 22/23 points they will, in all probability be qualified, if not necessarily in first place. A win for Leicester in Treviso would put them on 19/20 points and in a strong position to qualify also. The Round Six game between the two would then just decide in which positions they qualify.

    #2
    Pool Six
    P W D L F A PD TF TA TB LB Pts Pos
    Munster 4 3 0 1 103 64 39 11 5 1 1 14 5
    Gloucester 4 2 0 2 70 76 -6 7 6 0 1 9 11
    Edinburgh 4 2 0 2 71 87 -16 7 10 0 0 8
    Perpignan 4 1 0 3 78 95 -17 7 11 1 2 7
    Remaining Fixtures
    Round 5 Gloucester v Munster Edinburgh v Perpignan
    Round 6 Munster v Edinburgh Perpignan v Gloucester

    Munster need six more points to win the Pool. Five would do if they are won v Gloucester. Four would also do but only from two draws.

    Gloucester need to beat Munster 5-0 and match their points total in Round Six. Any other victory would leave them behind Munster and needing to win in Perpignan and hoping that Munster failed to beat Edinburgh. Of course, in this latter scenario, Gloucester might be passed by Edinburgh.

    Edinburgh need two wins ideally with two bonuses to get two points more in their fixtures than Gloucester get in theirs. (Gloucester won the head to head 5-4) If they get no bonuses, Munster must only get two points in their last two games, if they get one bonus, Munster may get three points and if they get two bonuses, Munster may get four points.

    Two wins would win the Pool for Perpignan provided Munster get no points in the last two rounds. If they get one bonus, Munster may get one point If they get two bonuses, Munster may get two points.

    As shown on the last column in each Pool Table, The Team rankings are:

    Points Tries PD
    1 Ulster 18 13 103
    2 Toulouse 15 15 60
    3 Clermont 15 11 42
    4 Toulon 15 11 36
    5 Munster 14 11 39
    6 Leinster 13 8 46
    7 Saracens 15 17 95
    8 Leicester 15 11 35
    9 Cardiff 13 7 0
    10 Harlequins 11 8 24
    11 Gloucester 9 7 -6
    12 Northampton 9 7 -19
    The Quarter finals, therefore would line up:

    Ulster v Leicester (Poolmates)
    Toulouse v Saracens (Poolmates)
    Clermont v Leinster (ouch)
    Toulon v Munster (ouch)

    with Cardiff, Harlequins and Gloucester going into the Amlin.

    Comment


      #3
      Great work, i can see this being used by hacks all over in the next few weeks.

      We really really need to get a win in Glaws to have a chance in the knock-outs. Playing Toulon or whoever in killarney is a far better idea than playing them in montpellier, and hope that we get a home semi final, then another home final in cardiff with nigel in charge......

      Comment


        #4
        To get a home Quarter-Final, Munster need keep winning and hope that at least one of the teams above them lose. Ulster and Toulouse losing are of no use, Leicester and Saracens would go first in their Pools and be ahead of Munster. It has to be Clermont or Toulon. Of the two, I think Clermont (away to Harlequins, home to Racing) are more likely than Toulon (home to Cardiff, away to Glasgow) to lose.

        Comment


          #5
          Gwan Quins!!!

          Comment


            #6
            of course, Munster also need to stay ahead of Leinster!!

            Comment


              #7
              We owe Toulon a beating in Toulon.

              Comment


                #8
                Originally posted by glorob View Post
                We owe Toulon a beating in Toulon.
                Big time.


                An ambush is long overdue.
                I am the million man.

                Comment

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