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This is the story with the pools and a possible QF

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    This is the story with the pools and a possible QF

    Right time for the maths.

    This is the story with all the pools and what the possibilities are after next weekend.

    Pool One
    • Saracens are on top with 18 points. A home win or draw against Edinburgh next weekend will see them win the pool.
    • Munster are in second on 15 points and have the possibility to finish on 20 points if we win with a BP next weekend against Racing at home.
    • If Edinburgh cause a huge upset and beat Sarries then a BP win would see us top the pool regardless if Sarries get a loosing BP or not. This is unlikely.


    Pool Two
    • Toulouse are top of the pool on 18 points. A win over the tigers next weekend will see them win the pool.
    • Leicester are second with 16 points.
    • The most points possible for the second place team in this pool is 20.


    Pool Three
    • Harlequins are top with 24 and are pool winners.
    • Biarritz are second on 14 and could finish on 19 if they get a BP win against Harlequins next weekend.
    • The most points the second placed team in this pool can get is 19.


    Pool Four
    • Ulster are top on 19 and are pool winners.
    • Northampton are in second on 14 and could finish on 19 if they a BP win away to Glasgow .
    • The most points the second placed team in this pool can get is also 19.


    Pool Five
    • Clermont are top and pool winners on 23 points.
    • Leinster are second on 15 and could finish on 20 points if they get a BP win away to Exeter.
    • The most points the second placed team in this pool can finish on is 20.


    Pool Six
    • Toulon are top on 23 points.
    • Montpellier are second on 18.
    • The most points the second placed team in this pool can finish on is 23.



    If Montpellier win or draw with or without a BP then they will guarantee themselves 7th spot. In this scenario if both Munster and Leinster get BP wins then it will come down to tries scored and points difference to decide which one grabs 8th. As it stands Munster have scored one more try than leinster and 18 more points.

    If Montpellier lose and Both Munster and Leinster win with BP's then both will qualify in 7th and 8th with again tries and points deciding who takes which spot.

    If either Munster or Leinster get a BP win and the other doesn't than the team that gets the BP win will go through.

    If neither Munster or Leinster get a BP win then it could get very messy with the possibility of 3, 4 or even 5 teams finishing on 19 points.

    So plain and simple if Munster get a BP win next weekend and score more tries than Leinster and Toulouse don't score four tries and a losing BP against the Tigers than we are through to the QF's.


    *As pointed out if Toulouse Lose with both a losing BP and a 4 try BP then they will finish on 20 points and most likely go through at the expense of Munster/Leinster if Montpellier win. If Montpellier lose in this scenario then it is between Munster and Leinster again for the last runner up spot.



    (I have gone through every possibility but am open to correction on any aspect of this)
    Last edited by BOK; 13th-January-2013, 18:11.

    #2
    Only chink to that is if Toulouse lose with 2 bps. Then we are out if Montpellier win

    Comment


      #3
      wouldnt be a bit surprised to see a draw in the montpelier toulon game with both going through, mont already have 15 tries.
      if its close in the last 20 expect a bore fest of kicking and a "surprise draw"

      Comment


        #4
        This is the story with the pools and a possible QF

        If Saracens draw and end on 20 , we could pass them on tries scored...

        Comment


          #5
          This is the story with the pools and a possible QF

          Originally posted by BlueMuff View Post
          Only chink to that is if Toulouse lose with 2 bps. Then we are out if Montpellier win
          Assuming we don't rack up a shed load of tries and overtake Toulouse's try count. V v v v unlikely....!

          Comment


            #6
            I have a feeling I'm gonna be sorry I posted this

            Comment


              #7
              This is the story with the pools and a possible QF

              Anyone fancy posting the try count as it stands for all the relevant teams?

              Comment


                #8
                Originally posted by 3Crowns3Stars View Post
                If Saracens draw and end on 20 , we could pass them on tries scored...
                IIRC head to head decides pool winner
                My computer thinks I'm gay
                What's the difference anyway
                When all the people do all day
                Is stare into a phone

                Comment


                  #9
                  This is the story with the pools and a possible QF

                  Originally posted by sewa View Post
                  IIRC head to head decides pool winner
                  Saracens/ Munster is a dead heat.
                  Tries / points diff

                  Comment


                    #10
                    This is the story with the pools and a possible QF

                    Originally posted by 3Crowns3Stars View Post
                    Saracens/ Munster is a dead heat.
                    Tries / points diff
                    I think...?

                    Comment


                      #11
                      Given the state of our attacking game, it is worth noting that if we don't get a bonus point we could still qualify if;

                      A - Edinburgh beat Saracens, or


                      B - Four of the five scenarios occur

                      (i) Toulouse either beat Leicester or lose by more than 7

                      (ii) Montpellier lose to Toulon by more than 7

                      (iii) Leinster (presuming they win) don't get a bonus, and either
                      - score equal to or less than the same amount of tries as we score against Metro, or
                      -don't get a bonus, score one more try against Exeter than we score against Metro, and beat Exeter by 19 points more than we beat Metro by.

                      (iv) Biarritz don't get a try bonus at home to Harlequins

                      (v) Northampton score 5 more tries against Glasgow than we score against Metro, or score 4 more tries than us and beat Glasgow by 46 points more than we beat Metro by.

                      Comment


                        #12
                        Originally posted by sewa View Post
                        IIRC head to head decides pool winner
                        but we are equal match points and tries on head to head with sarries, so we need more tries than them to win. (not that this scenario is likely, but come on Embra you rapidly improving team)
                        "We are going to hope to keep improving the environment in Munster. It’s about improving and setting standards where players and coaches can improve. Hopefully we can offer that more than just money.” Johann Van Graan 20/12/2017

                        Comment


                          #13
                          This is the story with the pools and a possible QF

                          If B(ii) occurs, then we only need 2 more of the B scenarios..,

                          Comment


                            #14
                            This is the story with the pools and a possible QF

                            Biggest risks to us could be 'fixed' results/ deliberate throwing of matches.
                            (I understand, btw, that we will benefit from a weak Racing team )
                            Quins could ( maybe should) send their weakest team to Biarritz as they are guaranteed a home QF.
                            This will allow Les Biarrots to accumulate 19 points and probably 20+ tries for.

                            Toulon could agree to let Montpelier to win by less than 7 to ensure both teams qualify....and Toulon to top the group ( home QF)

                            Exeter could throw the match too as there's nothing to play for but pride.

                            I cn't see the scots going easy on the English teams. Not to say they won't get walloped!
                            Last edited by 3Crowns3Stars; 13th-January-2013, 18:33.

                            Comment


                              #15
                              Originally posted by 3Crowns3Stars View Post
                              Anyone fancy posting the try count as it stands for all the relevant teams?
                              Montpellier 18 pts & 15 tries Home to Toulon
                              Toulouse 18 pts & 14 tries away to Leicester (Tigers must win to top the group)
                              Munster 15 pts & 9 tries home to Racing
                              Leinster 15 pts & 8 tries away to Exeter

                              BO 14 pts & 14 tries Home to Quins

                              Northampton 14 pts & 6 tries Away to Glasgow

                              May or may not be accurate-robbed from PR
                              "We are going to hope to keep improving the environment in Munster. It’s about improving and setting standards where players and coaches can improve. Hopefully we can offer that more than just money.” Johann Van Graan 20/12/2017

                              Comment

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