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Round Four Summary, What now? Update Saturday Morning

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    Round Four Summary, What now? Update Saturday Morning

    General Points:

    Some things have been clarified, others have been made more complicated.


    · Munster need to win both their remaining matches but that may not be enough if other results go against them.
    · Leinster need to up their game significantly and for a load of results to go their way to qualify.
    · Ulster, despite their setback on Saturday, have still got matters in their own hands and should make it.
    · Harlequins Clermont and Toulon are motoring along nicely.
    · Montpellier are "near enough if good enough" to borrow a horse racing phrase.
    · Pool Two is tight with Leicester marginally ahead.

    Pool One

    Saracens are in the driving seat here. Even if they lose next time out and get two bonuses, then a bonus point win at home to Edinburgh would win them the Pool unless Munster win both their remaining matches, with a bonus in each and outscore Sarries by three tries or more. Eight points, will win them the Pool no matter what happens.

    Racing need to beat Sarries preferably depriving them of any bonus. Having done that, any win in Thomond would win them the Pool. If Sarries get a bonus in Round Five, Racing would need one in Thomond to be sure. If Sarries were to get two bonuses in Round Five, a Bonus for them in Round Six would squeeze Racing out in the head to head, unless Racing had gotten a bonus themselves in both Rounds Five and Six.

    Munster must win both their remaining games and hope that both of the others slip up. The most plausible scenario for this would be for Racing to beat Sarries next time out while Munster are winning in Edinburgh and then for Munster to beat Racing in Thomond in Round Six. Even this scenario might not be enough, depending on Bonus Points. Remember, the head to head between Sarries and Munster is dead level (5-5, 1-1 and 28-28) The next tie-breaker is tries scored in all Pool games (9-7 to Sarries at present) then Points Difference in all Pool Matches (62-28 to Sarries at present) If Munster were to win their last two matches, but get no bonuses, then one win and two bonuses for Sarries would win them the Pool.

    For Munster to win the Pool:


    · They must beat Edinburgh (A) (5-0, 1 or 2) and Racing (H) (5-0, 1 or 2) and hope that Sarries get six points or fewer from their games v Racing (A) and Edinburgh (H). If Sarries get seven points, Munster must outscore them by three tries or by two tries and overturn the Points Difference of 34 points in the last two matches.
    · If Munster only get one bonus, then Sarries must get five points or fewer from the two matches. If they get six, Munster must outscore them by three tries or by two tries and overturn the Points Difference of 34 points in the last two matches.
    · If Munster get no bonus, Sarries must get four points or fewer. If they get five, Munster must outscore them by three tries or by two tries and overturn the Points Difference of 34 points in the last two matches.


    Pool Two:

    Leicester lead at present and are the only team with matters in their own hands, but they must go to the Liberty before hosting Toulouse in Round Six, while both the Ospreys (A) and Toulouse (H) play Treviso. Were the Ospreys to beat Treviso, with the bonus, in the last round, and that's by no means certain, they would still only be able to overtake both Toulouse and Leicester if they have beaten Leicester 5-0 in the Liberty and then Leicester beat Toulouse 4-0. Leicester can win the Pool by getting a bonus in the Liberty and winning 5-1 or 5-0 in the last round. If Leicester win in the Liberty, Toulouse would probably need to win in Welford Road. Depending on how the bonuses (if any) went in Round Five, a draw might do them but it might have to be "3-2".

    Pool Three

    This Pool is the most straightforward of all the Pools. Harlequins on 19 points have the pool all but won. They'd need meltdown of EDIT: (you know who) in (you know when) proportions to lose it from here. One point is all they need from the visit of Connacht to confirm top spot. The most the second placed team in this pool can get is 19 points (see below) to do that, BOPB must win their last two matches, Zebre (A) and Harlequins (H) with a bonus in each.

    Pool Four

    Northampton's win in Ravenhill tightened up the standings here, but Ulster are still in charge of their own destiny. They entertain Glasgow next time out while Northampton host Castres and should maintain their five point advantage over Saints, leaving the Pool:
    Ulster 19/20
    Northampton 14/15
    Castres 13/14/15

    If Ulster get the bonus over Glasgow, it would be enough for them to win the pool, having beaten Saints 6-4 in the head to head, unless Castres get two bonuses in Northampton and beat Ulster 5-0 in the last round and turn over the 4-2 lead in Tries that Ulster have.

    Of course were Castres to win in Franklin's Gardens, they would be on 18 at least and a win in the last round would win them the Pool.

    Pool Five

    This pool is in a similar state to Pool Three, with Clermont out on their own eight points clear. Two more points will win the Pool for certain and you'd have to fancy them to get those next time out v Exeter having hammered them away in Round Two. Leinster are in serious trouble, on ten points and three tries. Their maximum total is 20 assuming two bonus point wins. At this stage, that looks unlikely. They should beat Scarlets (H) next time out but will be up against it in Exeter in Round Six.

    Pool Six

    Toulon power ahead here and are the second ranked pool leaders. They are five points ahead of Montpellier and host Cardiff in Round Five while Montpellier visit Sale. Toulon could maintain or even increase their lead with a bonus to win the Pool. If the gap is five or less, Montpellier could win the Pool by beating Toulon at home in Round Six. The head to head is in Toulon's favour, 5-0, 5-1 and 37-16.


    Second Place:

    The maximum possible totals for the second placed teams in each Pool are:

    Pool One 21 points. Munster (7 tries so far) or Saracens (9)
    Two “Fivers” for Munster and 2 and five points respectively for Saracens.

    Pool Two 21 Points Leicester (11) or Toulouse (9)
    “Fivers” for both in round five and a 3-2 draw in Toulouse's favour

    Pool Three 19 Points BOPB (10)
    Two ”fivers”

    Pool Four 22 Points Ulster (9) or Castres (5)
    “Fivers” for both in Round Five and 5-2 to Castres in Round Six.

    Pool Five 20 Points Leinster (3)
    Two "fivers"

    Pool Six 23 Montpellier (11) or Toulon (16).
    “Fivers” for both in Round Five and a fiver for Montpellier in Round Six.

    What I think will probably happen:

    Pool One:
    Munster win both matches with one bonus to get to 20. Sarries beat Racing 4-0 and Edinburgh 5-0
    Sarries 23
    Munster 20

    Pool Two:
    Ospreys beat Leicester 4-1 Toulouse beat Treviso 5-0. Ospreys beat Treviso 4-1 and Leicester beat Toulouse 4-1
    Toulouse 19 (5-4 on the head to head)
    Leicester 19
    Ospreys 17

    Pool Three:
    BOPB beat Zebre 5-0 and lose to 'quins 1-4 Connacht beat Zebre 4-0 and lose to 'quins 0-5.
    'Quins 28
    BOPB 15
    Connacht 12

    Pool Four:
    Ulster beat Glasgow 5-0 and lose to Castres 4-1 Northampton beat Castres 4-1 and beat Glasgow 5-0
    Ulster 21
    Northampton 19
    Castres 17

    Pool Five:
    Leinster beat Scarlets 5-0 and lose to Exeter 4-1 Clermont beat Exeter 5-0 and Scarlets 5-0

    Clermont 28
    Leinster 16
    Exeter 13

    Pool Six:
    Toulon beat Cardiff 5-0 and lose 4-1 to Montpellier. Montpellier beat Sale 4-0

    Toulon 24
    Montpellier 21

    If these predictions come through (but I'm only on 79% correct in Superbru that's 9½ per round) then the Quarters will be:

    Harlequins v Munster

    Clermont v Montpellier

    Toulon v Toulouse

    Saracens v Ulster.

    with Leicester, Northampton and Leinster in the Amlin.


    If all stays the same, the Quarter Finals would be

    Harlequins (19 Points, 21 tries) v Toulouse (13, 9)

    Toulon (18, 16) v Montpellier (13, 11)

    Clermont (18, 13) v Saracens (14, 9)

    Ulster (15, 9) v Leicester (14, 11)

    With Castres, (12, 5) Racing (12, 4) and Leinster (10, 3) going to the Amlin
    Last edited by Piquet; 12th-January-2013, 12:17. Reason: Spotted a few bloopers in Pool Two.

    #2
    Quins V Munster tallies with Thornley's " mature reflection" this week.
    Munster – Champions of Europe 2006, 2008, 2019.

    Comment


      #3
      Re: Round Four Summary, What now?

      So much depends on that Racing Sarries game. If Sarries win, will Racing throw in the towel and send a second team ?

      We could actually do 10 points in such a scenario.
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        #4
        A quarter final in France v Toulon or Clermont would be good.

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          #5
          great summation ! does anybody know what are the criteria for best two runners up if say 3 or 4 second place teams finish level on 20 or so points?

          Comment


            #6
            Originally posted by RED 49 View Post
            great summation ! does anybody know what are the criteria for best two runners up if say 3 or 4 second place teams finish level on 20 or so points?

            http://www.ercrugby.com/eng/heinekencup/rules/index.php
            Quarter-finals qualification if clubs are equal:
            Clubs in the same pool
            (ii) if clubs are equal on points and the clubs are in the same pool, then qualification/ranking will be based on the two matches played between the clubs concerned:
            (a) the club which has earned the most number of match points from the two matches (four points for a win, two points for a draw and bonus points).
            (b) the club which has scored the most tries in the two matches.
            (c) the club with the best aggregate points difference from the two matches.
            Clubs from different pools (if still unresolved)
            (iii) if the clubs have not played each other previously in the pool stage, qualification/ranking will be based on:
            (a) the number of tries scored in all pool matches.
            (b) aggregate points difference from all pool matches.
            (c) the club with the fewest number of players sent off and/or suspended in all pool matches.
            (d) toss of a coin.
            Clubs ranked 1 - 4 will have home advantage. The Quarter-Finals will be:
            Club 1 v Club 8; Club 2 v Club 7; Club 3 v Club 6; Club 4 v Club 5

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              #7
              Originally posted by glorob View Post
              A quarter final in France v Toulon or Clermont would be good.
              Good?
              Hello friends in Brussels. Baldy here

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                #8
                Quinn's away please with the winner getting us a home draw for the semi and revenge against ulster then we beat Clermont in the final in dublin. Simple.

                Comment


                  #9
                  Pool Four results last night mean:

                  • Ulster have won the Pool. They are five ahead of Northampton and ahead 6-4 on the head to head and so cannot be caught.
                  • 19 points is the highest possible second placed total in this Pool and is only achievable if Northampton beat Glasgow next week with the bonus.



                  Monpellier's bonus point win last night, keeps Pool Six alive for the moment and means that the highest possible second place total in this pool is still 23 points. This will happen, as stated above if Toulon get at least five points from their last two games ( Cardiff (H) and Monpellier (A))and Montpellier set five from their last match. Of course, if Toulon were to win or draw in Montpellier, then the second place total would be 18 plus whatever Montpellier get from that game, a maximum of 21 but probably less than that.

                  Comment


                    #10
                    I believe we will qualify as best runner up and have an away quarter final against Clermont or Toulon.

                    Comment


                      #11
                      Originally posted by glorob View Post
                      I believe we will qualify as best runner up and have an away quarter final against Clermont or Toulon.
                      we'll need a bp from somewhere i reckon. right now, i wouldn't even be confident of 2 wins.

                      Comment


                        #12
                        Racing 7-0 up...cant decide if thats good or bad for us

                        Comment


                          #13
                          Re: Round Four Summary, What now? Update Saturday Morning

                          Originally posted by cjbotha View Post
                          Racing 7-0 up...cant decide if thats good or bad for us
                          Good. We would have a great chance to top the group if Racing win. Don't want them getting a bonus though.
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                            #14
                            4 - 0 win terms of points to racing today would be ideal

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                              #15
                              Originally posted by fitzy73 View Post
                              Good. We would have a great chance to top the group if Racing win. Don't want them getting a bonus though.
                              i dont think it matters if they get a bp. no matter what, if we beat edinburgh and them, we'll finish above them*.

                              no match points for saracens would be nice.

                              edit: *unless they were to score 4 tries while losing in TP and we didn't.

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