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Take out yer calculators kids

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    Take out yer calculators kids

    http://www.espnscrum.com/heineken-cu...te=pointstable

    Right, events today leave us on 11 points and 7 tries, and winning the group is out of our hands. We have to play Edinburgh away followed by Racing Metro at home. The highest we can finish on is 21 points, being two try bonus point wins.

    Here is how we fare compared to the other possible runners up.


    Pool 2
    Leicester lead the group on 14 points, followed by Toulouse on 13. Leicester have to travel to the Liberty Stadium to take on the Ospreys, and then play Toulouse at home. Toulouse play Treviso at home before their trip to Welford Road. We're relying on either Toulouse or the Ospreys to beat Leicester.

    Toulouse take on Treviso at home next. A win there would leave them on 17/18 points. Should they lose to Leicester, they will likely finish on 18/19.


    Pool 3
    Biarritz are second on 9 points. No threat from that group.

    Pool 4
    Castres lie second on 12 points. They have to travel to Northampton in round 5 and then play Ulster at home in their final group game. 2 difficult games for them, but if they pick up wins they will finish on between 20 and 22 points. We need them to slip up. A defeat in either leaves them with a maximum total point haul of 19.

    Pool 5
    Leinster are second on 10 points. I'm not jinxing anything here.

    Pool 6
    A real threat for us. Montpellier are on 13 points. They play Sale away and Toulon at home. 2 wins leaves them in a very strong position, at least 21 points. A defeat would mean their highest possible total is 20.

    Summary
    We're relying on other teams. Basically we need 2 of Montpellier, Castres or Leicester to slip up.

    (More detail to be added later)

    #2
    beat me to it , this was my post but reckon piquet will do a thorough examination of it (and better)

    as it stands

    harlequins 19
    toulon 18
    clermont 18
    ulster 15
    leicester 14
    saracens 14
    toulouse 13
    montpelier 13
    castres 12
    racing 12
    munster 11
    northampton 10
    leinster 10
    ospreys 9
    exeter 9
    biarritz 9
    connacht 8
    sale 4
    scarlets 2
    glasgow 2
    treviso 1
    cardiff 1
    edinburgh 0
    zebre 0

    Comment


      #3
      Looks to me like another all french final in Dublin
      "You were only supposed to blow the bloody doors off!"

      Comment


        #4
        If Montpelier can beat Toulon they would probably finish with a total of 21/22, so that would be one spot filled.

        If both leicester and Toulouse get maximum points in round 5, they will have 19 and 18 points respectively. If Munster finish on 21, then any result in the Leicester Toulouse game will see Munster finish ahead on points. I can't see Castres getting 9 points from their 2 remaining fixtures, so again 21 points would be enough. Leinster can get a maximum of 20 as can Northampton.
        So if we win our remaining games with bonus points, only Castres can finish ahead, providing they beat Northampton in Franklins gardens and secure a bonus point win over Ulster in their final pool match.

        Comment


          #5
          I'm confident we'll get out of this group yet.

          Comment


            #6
            We will get out with 20 pts no problem.

            Groups 3,4,5 aren't a danger to us. Leinster have scored very little tries so they aren't a threat really. One of the other 2 groups will sort itself out. Group 2 will hardly hit 20 pts. Main thing will be to avoid Clermont away for the Q's. Playing Quins would be a dream.

            Comment


              #7
              The key to Munster doing well in the HEC this year is Racing beating Sarries in round 5. I think we can qualify as one of the best runners up but that probably means a trip to Toulon or Clermont - and an away win against either of those teams is well beyond us at present. Our away form has been poor to say the least and we better hope that Edinburgh don't find a run of form between now and then.

              Our key lies with players being fit Earls, Stander, Killer, TOD and maybe even POC. We need ball carriers and we need a game plan that suits the players. Picking an outhalf to kick the corners while the opposition lineout is perfect and your pack is losing the battle is not the right choice. Munster if they get out of the group need to pick an outhalf with a running threat who can get the back line moving. I don't know if thats Keatley or JJ but I do know its not ROG. That needs to be decided now and the choice at 10 stuck with until the end of Jan. If we qualify we should be playing on hard ground and it will suit our running game. I also think we need to make Zebo our first choice 15 - Felix has fantastic potential but due to injury he hasn't been able to realise that to date and is still struggling.
              \"God gave me the talent but the forwards gave me the ball\" - Jannie De Beer

              \"I hesitate to use words like spiritual or religious, but to see what rugby means to Munster people is very moving\" Shaun Payne

              I look back on 2008 at the Millennium Stadium as the highlight of my career because, although being capped by New Zealand and playing for the All Blacks was fantastic, this was special. - Doug Howlett

              Comment


                #8
                After time to reflect and calculate, i am fairly confident we can get out. Its definitely not as complicated as years gone by. Win our games and we have 19 and we'll see what happens

                Comment


                  #9
                  Originally posted by overthehillprop View Post
                  The key to Munster doing well in the HEC this year is Racing beating Sarries in round 5. I think we can qualify as one of the best runners up but that probably means a trip to Toulon or Clermont - and an away win against either of those teams is well beyond us at present. Our away form has been poor to say the least and we better hope that Edinburgh don't find a run of form between now and then.

                  Our key lies with players being fit Earls, Stander, Killer, TOD and maybe even POC. We need ball carriers and we need a game plan that suits the players. Picking an outhalf to kick the corners while the opposition lineout is perfect and your pack is losing the battle is not the right choice. Munster if they get out of the group need to pick an outhalf with a running threat who can get the back line moving. I don't know if thats Keatley or JJ but I do know its not ROG. That needs to be decided now and the choice at 10 stuck with until the end of Jan. If we qualify we should be playing on hard ground and it will suit our running game. I also think we need to make Zebo our first choice 15 - Felix has fantastic potential but due to injury he hasn't been able to realise that to date and is still struggling.

                  Toulon will muller cardiff at home and probably play a second team against montpellier away. That could let montpellier in.
                  I always knew Madigan was a closet Scrum Half. Ignore All things that suggest Continuity.

                  Comment


                    #10
                    Originally posted by The Outlaw View Post
                    Toulon will muller cardiff at home and probably play a second team against montpellier away. That could let montpellier in.
                    That sounds very probable - as you said Toulon will hammer Cardiff and at that stage they'll probably have a top-4 spot secured and a home QF so their final game against Montpellier won't have as much riding on it.

                    Anyway, away wins in France in any competition are as rare as Hen's teeth so Montpellier snatching that 2nd place QF spot looks probable.

                    Comment


                      #11
                      The one blessing is that Toulon are at home to Mont-de-Marson the following week, and away to Bordeaux the week after that, so hopefully they'll a decent team to Montpellier.

                      Comment


                        #12
                        I reckon 20 pts will be enough to get a best runners up spot (certainly for you, taking tries into account). Northampton won't reach that total and we (leinster) will struggle to get there. Even if Montpellier win their last 2 games, you should be capable of 9 pts from Edinburgh and Racing and take 8th spot.

                        Comment


                          #13
                          Originally posted by Cianostays View Post
                          I reckon 20 pts will be enough to get a best runners up spot (certainly for you, taking tries into account). Northampton won't reach that total and we (leinster) will struggle to get there. Even if Montpellier win their last 2 games, you should be capable of 9 pts from Edinburgh and Racing and take 8th spot.

                          away tie to clermont though
                          I always knew Madigan was a closet Scrum Half. Ignore All things that suggest Continuity.

                          Comment


                            #14
                            Originally posted by The Outlaw View Post
                            away tie to clermont though
                            hate to say this but away to Clermont could do serious damage to players confidence for the future.struggled today to get past their defence,dont look like scoring 4 tries in each of the last 2 games.
                            will ERC./SKY have the last 2 games for each team play at the same time as groups are tight?
                            To Dare Is To Do!!

                            Comment


                              #15
                              If Munster are to start thinking about bonus points they have to be a lot less predictable in attack.

                              Comment

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