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Round Three Review Round Four Preview

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    Round Three Review Round Four Preview

    General Points after Round Three:
    · Munster need to keep winning ( but we knew that already )
    · Leinster are still there but their lack of a bonus from their first two games and their try count of one could come back to bite them.
    · “Observe the sons of Ulster [plus guests] marching towards the Dodder” appears to be an appropriate play for the New Year. It’s not ‘till the beginning of summer that Trophies are given out, however.
    · Clermont, Toulouse and Toulon are motoring nicely.
    · BOPB’s cushy draw with an Italian team appears not to be as cushy as they thought.

    NB. As things stand and contrary to every table that this writer has seen so far, Munster lead Pool One, having “earned the most number of match points”. A draw next Sunday would leave Munster on top (unless Sarries get four tries and Munster don’t.)

    Pool One
    Munster would have preferred to have deprived Saracens of the losing bonus on Saturday but, in reality, having lost in the first round, they need to win next Sunday if the Pool is to be won. Sarries will probably beat Racing and Edinburgh in the last two rounds giving them a total of at least 18 not counting Round Four. A win over Munster would give them at least 22 and out of Munster’s reach, unless Munster win each of their last two games with the bonus and get two points in defeat in Vicarage Road. Any bonus for Sarries would definitely put them out of reach. 22 points would only be enough for a second place spot if results in other Pools were to fall kindly. As mentioned above, a 2-2 or 3-3 draw would leave the two teams level with Munster on top on the head to head. Assuming both teams win their last two games, bonuses, if any, would decide the Pool. Of course, Racing are by no means out of it yet. A win in Edinburgh would put them ahead of the loser in Watford and within striking distance of the winner. Wins in Paris and Thomond would put them through.

    Pool Two
    Toulouse did what they had to do against the Ospreys, matching Leicester’s bonus from Round Two. They need to win in the Liberty next time out to stay ahead of Leicester although the Tigers won’t have things all their own way in Treviso. If Leicester were to slip up in Italy and Toulouse win, Toulouse would be almost out of sight and able to clinch the Pool in Round 5 at home to Treviso. That slip up would also hamper Leicester’s hopes of a second place. To a certain extent, Ospreys are in a false position, having had to travel to both Leicester and Toulouse, although their inability to get a bonus in either game leaves them a little off the pace. Three wins from the last three would only put them on 20 maximum and needing both Toulouse and Leicester slip up again. Leicester need to win next time out in Italy and again in the Liberty to reach 18/19/20 and sett up a decider in Welford Rd. in Round Six. They would probably need to be within three of Toulouse going into this game, having lost 23(1T) – 9 in the Round One.

    Pool Three
    Harlequins are firmly in the driving seat here. A win with the bonus in Italy puts them on 19 and almost out of sight. Avoiding defeat v Connacht in Round Five would clinch the Pool. Biarritz messed up royally in Galway. The best they can do from here is 20 points. This might be enough for a second place spot but results elsewhere would have to go their way. Connacht are up against it, despite their heroics so far. Three wins would put them on 20/21/22 a total that ‘Quins can beat with wins over BOPB and Zebre. Unlikely to happen. In this writer’s opinion, only one team (‘Quins ) will get out of this Pool

    Pool Four
    Ulster are in the driving seat here. Six points ahead and with two home games up next against teams they have already beaten away. Two wins puts them on 22 points minimum, which may be enough to win the pool given that Castres must go to Northampton in Round Five. Even if Castres were to win their last three, the best they can end up with is 23 assuming bonuses all the way. Were Ulster to pick up a bonus, Castres would have to turn over a deficit from Round one of 5-0, two tries, and 24 points.
    Northampton need to win in Ravenhill next time out, ideally turning over a 5-0, four tries and 19 points deficit, beat Castres (H) in Round Five Glasgow (A) in Round Six and hope that either Glasgow in Round Five or Castres in Round Six do them a favour.

    Pool Five
    Clermont allowed Leinster to get a losing bonus but are now five points clear. Unless they lose 5-0 in Lansdowne, they will still be ahead going into the New Year. They will fancy themselves to get at least one bonus either at home to Exeter in Round Five or in Llanelli in Round Six to close out the Pool. Because of their failure to get any bonus in the opening two rounds, Leinster need to win big next Saturday, and hope to “out bonus” Clermont in the last two rounds. Their visit to Exeter in Round Six is a possible banana skin. Of course, three wins puts Leinster on 21 points minimum and in the running for a runners up spot.

    Pool Six
    Both French teams had away wins at the weekend and must be fancied to repeat the dose at home next time out to leave this pool a two horse race. They meet in Montpellier in Round Six with Toulon 5-0, five tries to one and 21 points ahead on the head to head.

    Second place

    The race for the two runners up spots is getting interesting. The highest possible second place totals in each of the Pools are

    Pool One: 23 Points ( A 3-3 Draw on Sunday and two “Fivers” each in the last two rounds would leave Munster on top and Sarries second both on 23 Points.)

    Pool Two: 25 Points ( “Fivers” for both Toulouse and Leicester in Rounds Four and Five and a 5-2 to Leicester in Round Six leaves Toulouse first on 25 and Leicester second on 25. )

    Pool Three: 23 (“Fivers” for both Connacht and Harlequins and a 5-2 to Connacht in Round Six. ‘Quins first and Connacht second, both on 23.

    Pool Four: 23 (Three “fivers” for Castres, two fivers for Ulster Ulster first on 24 min, Castres second on 23.)

    Pool Five: 24. (Three “fivers” for Leinster, Two “fivers” for Clermont. First place decided on how many points Clermont get in Lansdowne.)

    Pool Six: 23 ( Three “Fivers” for Montpellier, two fivers for Toulon. First place decided on how many points Toulon get in Montpellier. )

    If everything were to stay the same as now, the Quarter Finals would be:
    Harlequins (14 Pts, 14 Tries) v Leinster (9, 1)
    Clermont (14, 12) v Leicester (10, 9)
    Ulster (14, 9) v Munster (10, 6)
    Toulouse (13, 9) v Toulon (13, 7)
    With Saracens (10, 8), Montpellier (8, 7) and Castres (8, 4) going into the Amlin.

    #2
    Just bumping this to keep it active. Thanks Piquet.
    Regarding the match points 'confusion' (if you find it confusing, there is no hope for the rest of us), is there any precedent of two teams ending up on the same points, that would explain how the teams were ranked?
    "We are going to hope to keep improving the environment in Munster. It’s about improving and setting standards where players and coaches can improve. Hopefully we can offer that more than just money.” Johann Van Graan 20/12/2017

    Comment


      #3
      Originally posted by FORWARD.... View Post
      Just bumping this to keep it active. Thanks Piquet.
      Regarding the match points 'confusion' (if you find it confusing, there is no hope for the rest of us), is there any precedent of two teams ending up on the same points, that would explain how the teams were ranked?
      Ulster/Biarritz 2010/11?

      Comment


        #4
        There are many examples. It's only the wording of the rules that's confusing. their application is well established. As HenryFitz has said, Ulster and BOPB were level in '10/11 on 22 points. BOPB won 5-0 in Biarritz (35 -15 and four tries to two) and Ulster won 4-1 in Ravenhill (9-6 no tries ) BOPB, therefore won the head to head 6-4 on "Match Points"

        In 2005/6, Sale and Munster were level on 23 Sale won in Stockport 4-0 but Munster won 5-0 in Thomond to win the Pool 5-4 on "Match Points".

        As recently as last year, Clermont and Ulster were level on 20, the Match Points were 5-5 but Clermont won on Tries scored, 2-1

        In 2010/11 Perpignan and Leicester were level on 22 Perpignan won the head to head 6-3. (4-1 and 2-2)

        In 2007/8 Clermont and Munster were level on 19 Munster won 6-4 (5-0 and 1-4)

        In 2003/4 Munster and Gloucester were level on 24 Munster won 5-4 (5-0 and 0-4)

        In 2006/7 Leicester and Munster were level on 23 points. The Match Points were 5-5 (4-1 and 1-4) but Leicester won on tries 3-2.
        Last edited by Piquet; 12th-December-2012, 20:55. Reason: Added in Leicester Munster from 2006/7

        Comment


          #5
          Without sounding anti leinster I dont see them getting a 5-0 against clermont, they have overplayed their performance last weekend and missing key players might catch them yet, personally i dont see them winning the group.

          Comment


            #6
            Some good reading' there. Maybe you should be a columnist for the Independent

            Comment


              #7
              Originally posted by blaa-head View Post
              Maybe you should be a columnist for the Independent
              No. Possibly the Times or "The Paper" but not the Indo.

              Of course none of them have asked me so the question doesn't arise.
              Last edited by Piquet; 13th-December-2012, 08:50.

              Comment


                #8
                Let's see if anyone picks up on Piquets rankings i.e. Munster leading the table on match points. Piquet will know where to send the bill then.
                "We are going to hope to keep improving the environment in Munster. It’s about improving and setting standards where players and coaches can improve. Hopefully we can offer that more than just money.” Johann Van Graan 20/12/2017

                Comment


                  #9
                  Update after Friday's games:

                  Pool One: Racing lead the Pool on Twelve Points. A "2-2" draw tomorrow would leave a three-way tie at the top with Sarries and Munster level on seven points in the games between the three. Sarries and Munster would be separated by the number of tries scored in the matches between the three teams, then points difference then tries scored in the overall pool and then points difference in the pool overall. ( at present Sarries have three tries, Munster two and Racing two)

                  Pool 3: BOPB's failure to get the try bonus means their maximum possible total is 19. Harlequins will win the pool with six more points from their last three games. Five would do if one of them is against BOPB in Round Six. BOPB are unlikely in the extreme to get a second placed spot with 19 points.

                  Comment


                    #10
                    What does today's results mean for us?

                    Comment


                      #11
                      Originally posted by Paddy Whac View Post
                      What does today's results mean for us?
                      The chance to have a little chuckle at our neighbours expense (though knowing that they could ultimately be fighting for the same runner up spot as ourselves)

                      Comment


                        #12
                        Originally posted by Call999 View Post
                        The chance to have a little chuckle at our neighbours expense (though knowing that they could ultimately be fighting for the same runner up spot as ourselves)
                        How right you were
                        "There are a lot of points that we’ve left behind and this is with a young group. That probably tells you what they’re capable of and that they’re a very good side.

                        Probably next year or the year after next they will take some stopping"

                        Anthony Foley, May 2016. Axel RIP

                        Comment


                          #13
                          Originally posted by FORWARD.... View Post
                          Let's see if anyone picks up on Piquets rankings i.e. Munster leading the table on match points. Piquet will know where to send the bill then.
                          Picked up by Sky.

                          Of course, we are now even on match points and tries but not on overall points
                          "We are going to hope to keep improving the environment in Munster. It’s about improving and setting standards where players and coaches can improve. Hopefully we can offer that more than just money.” Johann Van Graan 20/12/2017

                          Comment

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