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    Hanging on by a fingertip.

    Munster are still there...just.

    A number of favourable results are needed some probable, some improbable, we'll just have to wait and see.

    The current state of play is as follows
    Qualified In own Hands Need favours Need miracles Out
    Leinster
    Racing
    Exeter
    Toulouse
    Clermont
    Ulster Saracens
    Gloucester
    Northampton
    Glasgow
    Munster
    La Rochelle
    Lyon
    Treviso
    Sale
    Harlequins
    Bath
    Ospreys
    Connacht
    Montpellier










    This is the first year that this writer can remember that five teams have qualified for the quarter finals with a game to spare. The remaining three places are between seven others. As the weekend progresses, teams will migrate from the middle three Columns to the right or the left ones.
    Pool One P W D L F A PD TF TA TB LB PTS Rank
    1 Leinster 5 5 0 0 181 76 105 26 9 4 0 24 1 Q
    2 Northampton 5 3 0 2 130 159 -29 14 20 2 0 14 9
    3 Lyon 5 1 0 4 84 105 -19 11 11 1 2 7 O
    4 Treviso 5 1 0 4 96 151 -55 12 21 1 1 6 O
    Fixtures Saturday 13:00 (Irish Time) Treviso v Leinster; Lyon v Northampton

    Nothing to see here. Leinster have won the Pool Northampton are second.
    Pool Two P W D L F A PD TF TA TB LB PTS Rank
    Exeter 5 4 1 0 153 91 62 20 12 4 0 22 3 Q
    Glasgow 5 2 1 2 96 108 -12 11 12 1 1 12 10
    La Rochelle 5 3 0 3 93 113 -20 12 13 1 1 10 12
    Sale 5 1 0 4 85 115 -30 10 15 0 3 7 O
    Fixtures Saturday 17:30 Exeter v La Rochelle ; Sale v Glasgow.

    The draw in Glasgow won Exeter the Pool.

    Having lost the Head to Head, Glasgow need to stay ahead of La Rochelle to stay second in the Pool. Any win in Sale will do no matter what La Rochelle so in Sandy Park. Three points would only do if La Rochelle fail to get a fiver. Two points would do if La Rochelle fail to win. One point would necessitate La Rochelle getting two or fewer and no points would need La Rochelle to get one point or none. the Last two scenarios would have Glasgow eliminated altogether.

    La Rochelle must get two points more in Sandy Park than Glasgow get in Sale to get second place in this Pool. To have any further interest in the competition, they must win.
    Pool Three P W D L F A PD TF TA TB LB PTS Rank
    Clermont 5 4 0 1 181 95 86 22 12 3 1 20 5
    Ulster 5 4 0 1 107 92 15 13 8 1 0 17 6
    Harlequins 5 2 0 3 95 140 -45 10 18 0 1 9 O
    Bath 5 0 0 5 87 143 -56 10 17 1 3 4 O
    Fixtures: Saturday 15:15 Ulster v Bath; Harlequins v Clermont

    The only Pool whose Winners have not been decided.

    A win or a draw or a two point loss wins Clermont the Pool. One point would do if Ulster fail to get a fiver v Bath. No points would do if Ulster fail to win.

    Ulster must get four points more than Clermont to win the Pool.


    More later
    Last edited by Piquet; 16-January-2020, 18:56.

    #2
    Pool Four P W D L F A PD TF TA TB LB PTS Rank
    1 Racing 5 4 1 0 170 99 72 21 12 4 0 22 2
    2 Saracens 5 3 0 2 94 64 30 10 7 1 1 14 7
    3 Munster 5 2 1 2 91 91 0 8 10 1 0 11 11
    4 Ospreys 5 0 0 5 77 178 -101 11 23 1 1 2 O
    Fixtures Sunday 13:00 Munster v Ospreys; Saracens v Racing

    Racing have won the Pool.

    Any win, any draw or a two point loss gets Saracens second place in the Pool. One point would do if Munster fail to get a fiver. No points would do if Munster fail to win.

    Munster must get three points more than Saracens to get second. A fiver, with Saracens getting one points max. or a non-bonus win with Saracens getting no points are the only results that will do. Of course, this may not be enough to stay in the competition, see below.
    Pool Five P W D L F A PD TF TA TB LB PTS Rank
    1 Toulouse 5 5 0 0 127 71 56 14 7 2 0 22 4
    2 Gloucester 5 2 0 3 126 105 21 17 9 3 3 14 8
    3 Connacht 5 2 0 3 91 123 -32 11 17 0 0 8 O
    4 Montpellier 5 1 0 4 83 128 -45 7 16 0 1 5 O
    Fixtures Sunday 15:15 (Irish Time) Toulouse v Gloucester; Montpellier v Connacht

    Nothing to see here, either, Toulouse have won the Pool and Gloucester are second.

    If nothing changes from here, the Playoffs would be:

    Quarter Finals Leinster v Gloucester
    Racing v Saracens
    Exeter v Ulster
    Toulouse v Clermont


    Semi Finals

    Leinster/Gloucester v Toulouse/Clermont in Ireland if Leinster win, in France otherwise.

    Racing/Saracens v Exeter/Ulster in France if Racing win, in Ireland if Saracens and Ulster win, in England if Exeter and Saracens win.

    Last edited by Piquet; 16-January-2020, 18:55.

    Comment


      #3
      So, if we get the bonus and a decent winning margin against Ospreys, to finish ahead of us:

      Gloucester probably have to win in Toulouse.
      Saints have to win in Lyon.
      Glasgow probably need a bonus point win in Sale.

      I’d actually be surprised if two of those three results come off, so we’re still in with a shout of a place.

      Probably the least likely result to go our way is Sarries v Racing, but you never know.

      Comment


        #4
        didn’t realise Racing have a good chance of getting Sarries.
        This will cause them to up their game. Sarries have knocked them out ?2/3 times in the last few years. They will not want them coming to La Defense fully loaded for a quarter final. I still don’t think Racing have enough to beat Sarries in London as they will almost def put out a full team. Should be a good game though.

        Comment


          #5
          Originally posted by Munsterboy View Post
          So, if we get the bonus and a decent winning margin against Ospreys, to finish ahead of us:

          Gloucester probably have to win in Toulouse.
          Saints have to win in Lyon.
          Glasgow probably need a bonus point win in Sale.

          I’d actually be surprised if two of those three results come off, so we’re still in with a shout of a place.

          Probably the least likely result to go our way is Sarries v Racing, but you never know.
          I don't think that the results Munster needs are all that improbable, tbh. Racing want home games b/c they are so suited to that pitch so they're going to go to Allianz guns blazing. They can do a job on Saracens. Going away to France is never easy for the English teams. Toulouse are fighting with Racing, Exeter and Clermont for a top 2 seed so they're probably going to beat Gloucester; Glasgow are up and down as evidenced by drawing with Exeter yet losing to La Rochelle at home previously. Unlikely for it to all break Munster's way, but that's why they play the games.
          Last edited by Finnegan79; 16-January-2020, 18:32.

          Comment


            #6
            Originally posted by Finnegan79 View Post

            I don't think that the results Munster needs are all that improbable, tbh. Racing want home games b/c they are so suited to that pitch so they're going to go to Allianz guns blazing. They can do a job on Saracens. Going away to France is never easy for the English teams. Toulouse are fighting with Racing, Exeter and Clermont for a top 2 seed so they're probably going to beat Gloucester; Glasgow are up and down as evidenced by drawing with Exeter yet losing to La Rochelle at home previously. Unlikely for it to all break Munster's way, but that's why they play the games.
            I agree. Think Gloucester will come away empty handed from Toulouse, and Saints won’t beat Lyon in France either. Glasgow might beat Sale but a BP win is a stretch.

            Hopefully Donnacha and Zeebs will be encouraging their team mates to help us out. :)

            Comment


              #7
              I think Ospreys will have their strongest team of the season. Tipuric and Scott Williams back, wyn Jones and North one game in.. 3 weeks to next game

              Comment


                #8
                Thanks PK great posts and analysis and explanations as always.

                I have to agree with MB, as good as Racing are, I don't see them going to London and getting a result v Sarries when the chips are down for Sarries. It will be worth a watch but I don't expect a Racing win unfortunately..... we,ll see though ;)))

                p.s.. how sweet to grab qualification from the jaws of defeat from mercenaries like Sarries..... it would be classic Munster in many ways.... :))))
                ____________________________________________
                Munster were great when they were Munster.

                alas they are just north munster now.......
                ____________________________________________

                Comment


                  #9
                  Bookies have Saracens and Glasgow as strong favourites.
                  "Fineen Wycherley was everywhere. When I watched this video back late on Saturday night I half expected to look up from my laptop to find him in my kitchen ' TRK Nov 3rd 2019 following Cardiff v Munster

                  Comment


                    #10
                    One of the UK podcasts worked through their predictions and ended up expecting a Saracens win (4-0) and ending up with them playing Exeter at Sandy Park (now that would be interesting)

                    Sent from my SM-G965F using Tapatalk

                    Comment


                      #11
                      Originally posted by In Joe we trust View Post
                      One of the UK podcasts worked through their predictions and ended up expecting a Saracens win (4-0) and ending up with them playing Exeter at Sandy Park (now that would be interesting)

                      Sent from my SM-G965F using Tapatalk
                      I’d love to see that. Blood and sand. Twould be like ancient Rome.

                      Comment


                        #12
                        Originally posted by Munsterboy View Post

                        I’d love to see that. Blood and sand. Twould be like ancient Rome.
                        We could buy up Salaries tickets en masse, travel over and shout for Exeter
                        Gwan Joe!!

                        Comment


                          #13
                          The fight for the three remaining qualifying spots is pretty straightforward from one viewpoint and complicated from all others.

                          The current rankings are as shown:

                          No Team Pts PD Tries
                          1 Leinster Q 24 105 26
                          2 Racing Q 22 71 21
                          3 Exeter Q 22 62 20
                          4 Toulouse Q 22 56 14
                          5 Clermont q 20 86 22
                          6 Ulster 17 15 13
                          7 Saracens 14 30 10
                          8. Gloucester 14 21 17
                          9. Northampton 14 -29 14
                          10 Glasgow 12 -12 11
                          11. Munster 11 0 8
                          12 La Rochelle 10 -20 12
                          Ulster ( 17 Points, PD 15, 13 Tries) have two routes to qualification, winning the Pool or more likely coming second and staying in the top three second placed teams. To win the pool, they must get four points more against Bath than Clermont do at the Stoop. Failing that, any win or a three point draw would put them on 20 points at least and ahead of all the other chasers. A Two point draw would leave them on 19 points and a PD of 15 and hoping that no more than two of the following happen:
                          • Sarries get a fiver
                          • Gloucester get a fiver
                          • Northampton get a fiver and win by 45 points or 44 points matching Ulster's tries in the last round.
                          Two points in a loss would leave the same scenario but would reduce the magnitude of the necessary Northampton win by at most seven points.

                          One point would have them on 18 and hoping that no more than two of the following happen:
                          • Sarries, get four points or more.
                          • Gloucester get four points or more
                          • Northampton get five or get four and win by 45 minus whatever Ulster lost by or 44 minus what they lost by if they match Ulster's tries.

                          If Ulster get no points, they would be on 17 and hoping that no more than two of the following happen:
                          • Saracens get three or more.
                          • Gloucester get three or more.
                          • Northampton get five or four or three winning by 45 minus what ulster lost by or 44 minus what they lost by if they match Ulster's tries.
                          • Glasgow get a fiver and win by 28 minus what Ulster lose by or 27 scoring three tries in the last more than Ulster do.

                          Saracens (14, 30, 10) need firstly, to come second in their Pool see above. They then must avoid being overtaken by two of the teams below them or if they are, they must overtake Ulster.

                          If Sarries get a fiver v Racing, then they will qualify unless all of the following happen:
                          • Ulster get three points or more.
                          • Gloucester get a fiver and win by ten points more than Saracens do or win by nine points more and maintain their Try advantage of seven.
                          • Northampton get a fiver and win by 60 points more than Saracens do or win by 59 points and maintain their Try advantage of four.
                          Four v Racing would leave Sarries through unless all of the following happen:
                          • Ulster get two points or more.
                          • Gloucester get a fiver or four points winning by ten points more than Saracens do, or win by nine points more and maintain their Try advantage of seven.
                          • Northampton get a fiver or four points and win by 60 points more than Saracens do or win by 59 points and maintain their Try advantage of four.
                          Three v Racing would leave them through unless three of these happen:
                          • Ulster get one point or more.
                          • Gloucester get four or five points.
                          • Northampton get four or five points.
                          • Glasgow get a fiver and win by 43 points or win by 42 and maintain their try advantage of one.
                          Two points would leave them through unless two of these happen:
                          • Gloucester get three points or more.
                          • Northampton get three points or more.
                          • Glasgow get a fiver and win by 43 points or win by 42 and maintain their try advantage of one.
                          One point might do but only if it were enough to get second in the pool (See above) and only one of the following happen.
                          • Gloucester get two points or more or one point overturning the nine point advantage of Saracens or equals the PD and maintains their try advantage of seven.
                          • Northampton get two points or more or one point and overturn the 59 point advantage of Saracens or equals the Pd and maintain the try advantage of four.
                          • Glasgow get four or five points.
                          • La Rochelle get a fiver and overturn the 50 point advantage of Sarries.
                          No point would only do if firstly, they need to get second in the Pool (see above) and then only one of the following happens:
                          • Gloucester get one point or more or none overturning the nine point advantage of Saracens or equal the PD and maintains their try advantage of seven.
                          • Northampton get one point or more or none overturning the 59 point advantage of Saracens or equal the PD and maintain the try advantage of four.
                          • Glasgow get three points or more.
                          • La Rochelle get a fiver or four points and overturn the 50 point advantage of Sarries.

                          Gloucester (14, 21, 17), being in eighth spot at the moment, must stay ahead of all those below them or if they are overtaken, they must overtake either Ulster or Saracens (or preferably both)

                          Five points for Gloucester qualifies them unless all of the following happen:
                          • Ulster get three points or more.
                          • Saracens get a fiver and maintain their nine points PD advantage. If the PD ends up level, Sarries must score seven tries more than Gloucester.
                          • Northampton get a fiver and win by 51 points more than Gloucester do or win by 50 points and score four Tries more than Gloucester.
                          Four points would put them through unless all of the following happen:
                          • Ulster get two points or more.
                          • Saracens get a fiver or four points maintaining their nine points PD advantage. If the PD ends up level, Sarries must score seven tries more than Gloucester.
                          • Northampton get a fiver or four points and win by 51 points more than Gloucester do or win by 50 points and score four Tries more than Gloucester.
                          Three would do unless three of these happen:
                          • Ulster get one point or more.
                          • Saracens get three points or more.
                          • Northampton get four or five points.
                          • Glasgow get a fiver and win by 34 points or win by 33 and score seven Tries more than Gloucester do.
                          Two would do unless two of these happen
                          • Saracens get two points or more. OR Saracens fail to get second in Pool 4 and Munster get a fiver and overturn the 21 point PD advantage. If the PD ends up level Munster must score ten Tries more than Gloucester.
                          • Northampton get three points or more.
                          • Glasgow get a fiver or four and win by 34 points or win by 33 and score seven tries more than Gloucester do.
                          One would do if only one of the following happen.
                          • Saracens get two points or more or one point maintaining their nine points PD advantage. If the PD ends up level, Sarries must score seven tries more than Gloucester. OR Saracens fail to get second in Pool 4 and Munster get a fiver or four points and overturn the 21 point PD advantage. If the PD ends up level Munster must score ten Tries more than Gloucester.
                          • Northampton get two points or more or one point and overturn the 51 point advantage of Gloucester or win by 50 points and score four Tries more than Gloucester.
                          • Glasgow get four or five points. Or Glasgow fail to get second in Pool Two and La Rochelle get a fiver and overturn the 41 point advantage of Gloucester if the PD ends up equal La Rochelle must score six tries more than Gloucester.
                          No point would only do if only one of the following happens:
                          • Sarries get one point or more or none maintaining their nine points PD advantage. If the PD ends up level, Sarries must score seven tries more than Gloucester.OR Saracens fail to get second in Pool 4 and Munster get four or five points or three points and overturn the 21 point PD advantage. If the PD ends up level Munster must score ten Tries more than Gloucester.
                          • Northampton get one point or more or none overturning the 51 point advantage of Gloucester or equal the PD and maintain the try advantage of four.
                          • Glasgow get three points or more or two points and overturn the PD advantage of 33 of Gloucester if the PD ends up even, Glasgow must score seven tries more than Gloucester. OR Glasgow fail to get second in Pool 2 and La Rochelle get a fiver or four points and overturn the 41 point advantage of Gloucester if the PD ends up equal La Rochelle must score six tries more than Gloucester.
                          More later.

                          Comment


                            #14
                            So it seems very probable to me that Toulouse will beat Gloucester. Probable that Northampton will beat Lyon. That Munster will bp Ospreys with a decent score is also probable
                            We then need both Racing to win and Glasgow not to BP sale.
                            Both reasonable but not probable
                            Overall I think we should be about 5-1, maybe 9-2 to qualify.
                            Seven social sins: politics without principles, wealth without work, pleasure without conscience, knowledge without character, commerce without morality, science without humanity, and worship without sacrifice



                            Comment


                              #15
                              Anyone got official odds?
                              Seven social sins: politics without principles, wealth without work, pleasure without conscience, knowledge without character, commerce without morality, science without humanity, and worship without sacrifice



                              Comment

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