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    Defecate or Mechanically explode time approaches

    **** or Bust time is here.

    Funnily enough, in Round Four, only two teams changed position between all five Pools. That happened in Pool Five where Connacht overtook Montpellier. All other teams stayed in the exact same position they had after Round Three. Eight Try Bonuses were earned, two of them by losing teams and four Losing Bonuses. One team, Leinster, have qualified already and three teams, Bath, Harlequins and the Ospreys, are formally out with another few gone in all but name.
    Pool One P W D L F A PD TF TA TB LB PTS Rank
    Leinster 4 4 0 0 139 62 77 20 7 3 0 19 1 Q
    Northampton 4 2 0 2 97 139 -42 9 18 1 0 9 10
    Lyon 4 1 0 3 70 63 7 9 5 1 2 7
    Treviso 4 1 0 3 76 118 -42 10 16 1 1 6
    Remaining Fixtures
    12th Jan 13:00 Northampton v Treviso, Leinster v Lyon
    18th Jan 13:00 (Irish time) Treviso v Leinster, Lyon v Northampton

    Nothing to see here. Leinster have become the first team ever to qualify for the Play-offs with two games to spare. They are ten points ahead of Northampton and have beaten them twice. All that remains for them is to drive on to ensure that, once the Pool stages are over, they won’t leave Dublin ‘till the final.

    Northampton must try and get over the trauma of what Leinster inflicted on them (just to recap Leinster 93 (14T) Northampton 37 (4T) over the two games) and beat both Lyon and Treviso to get as close to 19 points as they can. That would put them with a reasonable chance of going through in second place. Of course, they would then run the risk of having to go back to Lansdowne for the Quarter Final. They are in tenth spot at the moment but all of the teams above them in the race for second spot must play their respective Pool Leaders and Northampton don’t.

    Theoretically, both Lyon and Treviso are still in the competition but, of course, neither can win the Pool and their respective maxima of 17 and 16 points would only give them an outside chance of qualification. Of course, to get to those totals, they would each need a fiver v Leinster. Not. Going. To. Happen.
    Pool Two P W D L F A PD TF TA TB LB PTS Rank
    Exeter 4 4 0 0 122 60 62 16 7 3 0 19 2
    Glasgow 4 2 0 2 65 77 -12 7 9 0 1 9 9
    Sale 4 1 0 3 62 85 -23 7 11 0 2 6
    La Rochelle 4 1 0 3 63 90 -27 8 11 0 1 5
    Remaining Fixtures
    10 Jan 20:00 (Irish Time) La Rochelle v Sale
    11 Jan 15:15 Glasgow v Exeter
    18th Jan 17:30 Exeter v La Rochelle, Sale v Glasgow.

    Exeter are within touching distance of qualification. One point or more in Glasgow or Glasgow failing to get a fiver or getting a fiver but not overturning the Head to Head (Exeter lead 5-0, 34-18 and 4 Tries to 2) would qualify them. They will, of course, hope to drive on and get the Home Quarter Final and Semi-Final from here.

    Glasgow need two fivers, to overturn the Head to Head with Exeter and Exeter to get nowt in either game to win the Pool. Getting to 19 points would probably qualify them in second. Anything less would make them vulnerable.

    Sale and La Rochelle are all but gone. Neither can win the Pool. Two fivers would only have them on 16 or 15 respectively and in all probability out of the hunt for a Second placed spot.
    Last edited by Piquet; 11-January-2020, 19:17.

    #2
    Pool Three P W D L F A PD TF TA TB LB PTS Rank
    Ulster 4 4 0 0 94 63 31 12 6 1 0 17 5
    Clermont 4 3 0 1 152 77 75 20 11 3 1 16 6
    Harlequins 4 1 0 3 70 121 -51 7 15 0 1 5 O
    Bath 4 0 0 4 68 118 -50 7 14 1 2 3 O

    Remaining Fixtures
    10 Jan 20:00 Bath v Harlequins
    11 Jan 13:00 (Irish Time) Clermont v Ulster
    18th Jan 15:15 Ulster v Bath, Harlequins v Clermont.

    Given that neither Bath nor Harlequins have any further interest in this competition, the Pool will, in all probability, be decided in the Michelin on Saturday.

    Ulster finally got a Bonus to keep them ahead of Clermont. Ulster lead the Head to Head 4-1, 18-13 and by 2 tries to 1. A win would have them at least three points in front of Clermont and only needing two more in Ravenhill (v an uninterested Bath) to win the Pool. Any draw would keep them ahead of Clermont and a fiver in the last round would do the job. Losing 4-2 would have them one point behind Clermont and getting one more point v Bath (H) than Clermont get in the Stoop would be enough to win the Pool. Losing 4-1 or 5-2 would level up the Head-to-Head Match Points and Points Difference would be needed to split them. Ulster would be two points behind so would need either two or three points more than Clermont get to win the Pool depending on how the Head to Head worked out. A 4-0 or a 5-1 loss would have them losing the Head to Head, three points behind and needing to get four more than Clermont. 5-0 would leave then needing to get a fiver in the last round and hope that Clermont got nowt in the Stoop. Any win or probably a draw would be enough to qualify in second if the worst came to the worst.

    Clermont need to get ahead of Ulster to win the Pool. Beating Ulster, overturning the Head to Head and matching their points in the last wound would do nicely. They could afford to drop a point or two in the Stoop and still win if the Head to Head had been overturned.

    Harlequins and Bath are history. Their only functions from here out are to put up a good show. Their match in the Rec in Round Five is purely a “Contractual Obligation Fixture” Neither side will select more than a handful of Firsts for this or their last respective games.
    Last edited by Piquet; 7-January-2020, 16:14.

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      #3
      Pool Four P W D L F A PD TF TA TB LB PTS Rank
      Racing 4 3 1 0 131 77 54 17 11 3 0 17 4
      Munster 4 2 1 1 69 52 17 2 6 1 0 11 7
      Saracens 4 2 0 2 72 49 23 9 5 1 1 10
      Ospreys 4 0 0 4 62 156 -94 9 20 1 0 1 O

      Remaining Fixtures
      11th Jan 13:00 Ospreys v Saracens
      12th Jan 15:15 (Irish Time) Racing v Munster
      19th Jan 13:00 Saracens v Racing, Munster v Ospreys

      Let's assume, for the purposes of this analysis, that Saracens will beat the Ospreys 5-0.

      It’s still in Munster’s hands despite the poor decision making towards the end in Hendon. A successful kick at the death would have secured the Bonus and, more importantly, won the Head to Head. Never mind, we move on from here. Two bonus point wins will win the Pool for Munster on 21 points unless Racing get five points from their last two games (two in losing to Munster and three in a draw with Saracens.) In that eventuality, Munster on 21 would be ahead of Saracens (18 max) and would have more than enough to get a second placed spot.
      Only getting one Bonus would leave Munster on 20 and vulnerable to being caught (and overtaken on the Head to Head) by Saracens if they got two Bonus wins. In that situation, if Racing got three from their last two games, all three teams would be level on 20 points and the games between the three would decide things. At the moment, Racing have seven points from a fiver v Saracens and a draw in Thomond. If they get three more, they’ll be on 10. Sarries have none from the Racing game and five from the two Munster games. A fiver in the last round would have them on 10 also. Munster have two from the Draw with Racing and four from the Sarries games. If they were to get a Bonus win in Paris, that would put them on 11 and winning the Pool. Getting the Bonus in the last round rather than in Paris would leave the three teams on 10 points and Points Difference would decide. At present Racing are +20 with Munster on -2 and Saracens on -18. In order to win the Pool, Saracens would have to beat Racing by (39 points minus whatever Munster beat them by) divided by 2 (to catch Racing) and by 16 points more than Munster beat Racing by to catch Munster).
      Example: Munster beat Racing by 1, Munster now go to -1 with Racing on 19. Sarries would have to win by 19 points to get to +1 with Racing on 0 and Munster on -1.
      Munster beat Racing by five, say. Munster go to + 3 with Racing on 15. A 17 Point win over Racing would put them on -2 with Sarries on -1. They would have to win by 21 to overtake Munster.
      If PD were the same, Tries scored in the games between the three will count. At present Racing have seven, and Munster and Sarries have three each. That’s unlikely to be of much use to either Sarries or Munster, Racing having two games to improve their total and the others only having one.
      Another thing to look out for here, if the Rugby World Cup practice is followed, then once the Tie-breaking criteria have been used to identify a Pool winner, the other two teams will be separated by going back to the original criterion, the Head to Head.
      If Munster got the bonus in Paris and not in Thomond, they would win the overall Head to Head on 11.

      Winning both their remaining games with no bonus would have Munster on 19 points and being caught by Sarries if they got four points v Racing or Racing if they got three more or both if both happened.

      Seven points would have Munster on 18 Points and if Sarries got three v Racing and Racing got two more, Munster would be out. Realistically, Racing would have to beat Sarries or draw with them 3-2 or 2-2 to allow Munster into second and if two of the second placed teams below Munster achieved their Maximum Points totals (19) Munster would be out. .
      Six Points would make things tighter still. Sarries max v Racing would one and Racing's zero.

      There are no circumstances whereby Munster can get five more points and win the Pool. they would only be able to progress if Racing held Sarries Match Pointless (In Hendon!!??) and 16 Points was enough to stay ahead of the three other second placed teams.

      Four points or fewer from here would eliminate Munster.

      The nightmare Scenario would have Munster beating Racing 4-2 and the Ospreys 5-x and Saracens beating the Ospreys 5-x and Racing 5-2. that would have Racing on 21 and Sarries and Munster on 20 with Sarries going through in second on the Head to Head.


      Five Points for Racing wins them the Pool on 22 Points.
      Any win, two draws a three point draw and a one point loss or two two-point losses puts Racing on 21 points, out of reach of Saracens and, at worst level with Munster and losing the Head to Head for Pool winners but, comfortably through in second place.
      Three points might be enough, depending on where they have been earned. If they involve a draw, that would certainly be enough. Two from a loss and another from another loss might also do, depending on whether the teams beating them get a bonus or not. (see the “three teams on 20” scenario above.)
      Two points would have them on 19 and, again, if they came from a draw, it might be enough depending on bonuses or their absence for the other teams.
      One point or none would be of no use, unless either Sarries or Munster, or both fouled up v the Ospreys.

      Two fivers for Sarries puts them on 20 points and either winning the Pool , in second or out, depending on how the other teams get on in their matches see above. They have won the Head to Head with Munster but trail the one with Racing by five match Points, twenty points and three tries.

      A five and a four for Sarries would put them on 19 and winning the Pool if Munster got eight points Racing got only one. If Munster got nine or ten and Racing two or more, they would be down in third and out.

      A five and a three would mean that Racing would have got at least two and be out of reach. Sarries would be third and out unless Munster for seven or fewer

      A five and a two would leave Racing out of reach and Sarries would be third and out unless Munster for six or fewer

      Five and one would have them out unless Munster got five or fewer and Five and none would put them out unless Munster got four or fewer.




      The Ospreys are out. Their only function from here is to act as possible spoilers for Saracens or Munster.
      Last edited by Piquet; 7-January-2020, 16:19.

      Comment


        #4
        Pool Four P W D L F A PD TF TA TB LB PTS Rank
        Toulouse 4 4 0 0 106 64 42 11 6 2 0 18 3
        Gloucester 4 1 0 3 97 99 -2 13 9 2 3 9 8
        Connacht 4 2 0 2 84 102 -18 10 14 0 0 8
        Montpellier 4 1 0 3 77 99 -22 7 11 0 1 5

        Remaining Fixtures
        11 Jan 15:15 Connacht v Toulouse 17:30 Gloucester v Montpellier
        19th Jan 15:15 (Irish Time) Montpellier v Connacht Toulouse v Gloucester.

        Two more points wins Toulouse the Pool. One more would do if Gloucester drop any Points and no points would be enough if Gloucester drop two points and Connacht drop one. 19 points would probably be enough for a second places spot, 18 points might be enough.

        Gloucester need to get two fivers from here (One away to Toulouse!!) and for Toulouse to get only one more point. If they get nine points, Toulouse must get none. 18 or 19 points might be enough for a Second placed spot.

        Connacht’s lack of bonus points has them on the verge of elimination. They need two fivers from here, for Toulouse to remain pointless, Gloucester to get 8 points or fewer and to beat Toulouse by more than 15 or by 15 and by three Tries to win the Pool. 18 Points, their Maximum, might be enough to get a second placed spot but it mightn’t be enough to get second place in the Pool, depending on how other matches end up, given that they have lost the Head to Head with Gloucester.

        Two fivers for Montpellier would get them second in the Pool if Toulouse beat both Connacht and Gloucester but 15 Points ismost unlikely to be enough for a Second Place spot.
        Team PTS PD Tries
        1 Leinster 19 77 20
        2 Exeter 19 62 16
        3 Toulouse 18 42 11
        4 Racing 17 54 17
        5 Ulster 17 31 12
        6 Clermont 16 75 20
        7 Munster 11 17 7
        8 Gloucester 9 -2 13
        9 Glasgow 9 -12 7
        10 Northampton 9 -42 13

        Quarter Finals
        Leinster v Gloucester
        Exeter v Munster
        Toulouse v Clermont
        Racing v Ulster

        Gloucester replace Glasgow.

        Semi Finals
        Leinster/Gloucester v Racing/Ulster

        in Ireland if Leinster win or if Ulster and Gloucester win, in France if Gloucester and Racing win.

        Exeter/Munster v Toulouse /Clermont

        in England if Exeter win, otherwise in France.
        Last edited by Piquet; 7-January-2020, 16:43.

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          #5
          I see......
          Anybody who sees a psychiatrist would want their head examined. &nb sp;Henry Ford

          Comment


            #6
            Thanks for all the hard work Piquet - informative stuff!
            Erse end of nowhere

            Comment


              #7
              So, what your saying is we have a chance!!
              To The Brave & Faithful ......

              Comment


                #8
                Second place positions

                It looks likely that the top two second placed teams will come from Pools Three and Four.
                In Pool Three, Ulster and Clermont are on 17 and 16 Points respectively. They play each other next and then finish up by playing one of the other two teams in the pool, both of whom are eliminated already. It is probable that both of them will win one of their last two games to go to 20 points, out of reach of the three teams in second place, Gloucester, Glasgow and Northampton whose maximum score is 19 points.
                Similarly, the presence of the third eliminated team, the Opsreys in Pool Four makes it likely that two (and possibly three, see above) of the teams in that Pool will reach 20 Points.

                That leaves three teams going for the last spot.

                Northampton can’t win their Pool and the other two need to maximise their Points and hope for massive favours in other games if they are to win their Pool. They will probably end up second in their respective Pools, unless they slip up and are caught by a team below them. Two, Glasgow and Gloucester, must play their Pool leaders so the possibility of them slipping up is real, particularly in Gloucester’s case with them having to travel to Toulouse in Round Six.

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                  #9
                  Most likely.
                  ​​​​​​​
                  Munster & Connacht out.

                  Leinster v Saracens & Exeter v Ulster.
                  ​​​​​​#GiveLeinsterTheHCupNow

                  Originally Posted by mr chips
                  AG gets the responses he does because he is a journalist..

                  Comment


                    #10
                    Mods, despite my best efforts, the Justification on my tables above are all over the place.

                    Could one of ye do a job on them please? All the numbers should be right justified, all the team names left justified, please.

                    Comment


                      #11
                      Just tried doing that but it won't co-operate for me either Piquet, sorry.
                      Thread is now a sticky though.
                      Tis but a scratch.

                      Comment


                        #12
                        Great work mate, thanks. We’ll get 5 vs the ospreys at home and really it’s just a question of beating Racing away on sunday. Massive ask.

                        Comment


                          #13
                          A win by 27 points and 4 tries would do us nicely anyways.

                          Comment


                            #14
                            Fabulous work Piquet

                            We are still in with a chance. Win the last two games 5-0 and we are through :) Happy Days.

                            I will say this only once--------Come on Ospreys
                            "Fineen Wycherley was everywhere. When I watched this video back late on Saturday night I half expected to look up from my laptop to find him in my kitchen ' TRK Nov 3rd 2019 following Cardiff v Munster

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                              #15
                              We’re ****ed then
                              Nulla semper amicus, servivit mihi, in iniuriam mihi neminem quem non persolvi

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