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    #46
    Edinburgh cranked up the gears a bit, right decision to go for the posts there
    "The PRO12 is our domestic league, it's what you earn your bread and butter from; it's what pays the bills. We need to broaden our emphasis and get an understanding in Irish rugby that the domestic league from now on is most important and that's what qualifies you now for Europe.'' Garrett Fitzgerald, CEO Munster

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      #47
      Originally posted by Waterfordlad View Post
      Ok moving over

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        #48
        OK Montpellier are out and Edinburgh on 23 points have a home QF. They are out of Munster's reach so Munster must hope that an unlikely sequence of events will happen if they are to get a home QF.

        They must either catch the Pool One or the Pool Four winners.

        A win is necessary to do either.

        To catch the Pool one winners, Munster win with the Bonus to get to 22 points and hope that
        • Leinster get one point or none in Coventry and Toulouse get four points or fewer. If Leinster get two points, Munster must overcome Leinster's PD advantage of 98 - 64. If Toulouse get five, Munster must maintain their PD Advantage of 64-10. OR
        • Racing must get one point or none v Llanelli and Ulster get three points or fewer in Leicester. If Ulster get four points, Munster must maintain their PD advantage of 64-2.
        If Munster win without the bonus:
        • Leinster must get nowt in Coventry and Toulouse must get three points or fewer. If Leinster get one point, Munster must overcome Leinster's PD advantage of 98 - 64. If Toulouse get four, Munster must maintain their PD Advantage of 64-10. OR
        • Racing must get none and Ulster must get three points or fewer.

        Comment


          #49
          I have revised today's earlier three posts and consolidated them here.

          Tonight's win for Edinburgh simplifies things greatly

          At the moment, the set-up is as follows:
          Pos Team Points PD Tries Susp
          1 Glasgow 19 47 16 0
          2 Ulster 18 2 16 0
          3 Toulouse 17 10 14 0
          4 Exeter 13 22 14 0
          19 points is the new target for second place qualification.

          Leinster, Racing and Glasgow are, therefore, through.

          Exeter need to get as many points as possible and hope they are enough. If they win the Pool, they will qualify. As discussed above, 4-0, 5-1 or 5-0 would do that. Let’s say they beat Munster but not by enough to win the Pool. Winning 4-1 or 4-2 would put them on 17 points and hoping that Toulouse got no points (at home to Bath). Winning 5-2 would put them on 18 and
          • Toulouse getting one point or none OR
          • Ulster getting no points.
          would qualify them.

          If Munster were to lose and finish second, a similar scenario would face them. There are two possibilities. Munster get no points, and stay on 17. To progress, they would need Toulouse to get no points and Munster maintain their 64-10 PD advantage.

          If Munster get one point and get to 18 Points, then either
          • Toulouse get no points or one to send it to PD OR
          • Ulster get no points and Munster maintain their PD advantage of 64 to 2.
          would do.

          If Toulouse don’t overtake any of the second placed teams ahead of them they must stay ahead of whoever is second in Pool Two.

          If Toulouse get no points, Munster must win Pool Two and Exeter must get three points or fewer. If Exeter win the Pool, Munster must get no points and Toulouse must overturn Munster’s PD Difference of 64-17.

          One point for Toulouse puts them on 18. One from these two would do.
          • Munster must win Pool Two and Exeter must get four points or fewer. If Exeter win the Pool, Munster must get no points. If Munster get one point, Toulouse must overturn Munster’s PD Difference of 64-17.
          • Ulster must get no points and Toulouse must maintain their PD advantage of 10-2.
          Two points for Toulouse puts them on 19 and through . Leinster are also through.


          Ulster are in the second second placed spot at the moment. Unless they pass out Glasgow, they must either win their Pool or stay ahead of two of the second placed teams in the Three Pools behind them.
          If they get no points, they need one of the following to happen:
          • Munster win Pool Two and Exeter get four points or fewer. If Exeter get five points, Ulster must overturn Exeter’s PD advantage of 22-2.
          • Exeter win Pool Two with Munster getting no Points. If Munster get one point, Ulster must overturn Munster’s PD advantage of 64-2.
          • Toulouse get no points. If Toulouse get one point, it must be a try bonus and Ulster must overturn Toulouse’s PD advantage of 10-2.
          One point puts them on 19 points and through.

          Racing and Glasgow are through

          Comment


            #50
            Bravo Piquet.
            So, are we still going to Edinburgh?

            Comment


              #51
              Looks like it, unless there are some unexpected results tomorrow and Sunday.


              and there quite often are.

              Toulon won in Newcastle last night after all.

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                #52
                So, on the assumption we win and head the group, what would need to happen elsewhere for us not to be going to Edinburgh? thanks
                Offside Ref! He's being doing it all day

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                  #53
                  Originally posted by Eastender View Post
                  So, on the assumption we win and head the group, what would need to happen elsewhere for us not to be going to Edinburgh? thanks
                  Strike in Ryanair?
                  'twas wicked yousir!

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                    #54
                    There are four main ways that Munster can avoid going to Edinburgh.
                    • Don't qualify at all
                    • Get a Home Quarter Final
                    • Edinburgh don't finish fourth and Munster win the Pool.
                    • Edinburgh finish fourth and Munster qualify in second place.

                    At the moment, Saracens are top seeds on 23 and a PD of 85, Edinburgh are next on 23, 71, with Racing next on 21, 62, Leinster on 20, 98 and Munster on 17, 64.

                    (So as things stand, Munster are off to the RDS.)

                    Munster can still get a Home QF (See Post 48 above. but failing that, to avoid Edinburgh (but why would we want to?) needs slightly lesser foul ups by Leinster and Racing than described above.

                    If either Racing or Leinster or both, get two points or fewer, they will be behind Edinburgh.

                    If Saracens lose by 15 points or more and get no points, they will be behind Edinburgh.

                    If Munster win the Pool, they will play whichever one of them is fourth.

                    If Munster don't win the Pool and qualify in second,(see Post 49 above) they will be away to one of the top two seeds.

                    Personally, I can't see any of them happening.

                    I have rooms booked in the Place Hotel. Mind you, I can cancel them up to 48 hours before arrival.
                    Last edited by Piquet; 19th-January-2019, 12:13.

                    Comment


                      #55
                      Ryanair and Aer Lingus have a 24 hour ''fare hold'' option for a few euro of a charge....just sayin', like.

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                        #56
                        Thanks guys
                        Offside Ref! He's being doing it all day

                        Comment


                          #57
                          Originally posted by Eastender View Post
                          So, on the assumption we win and head the group, what would need to happen elsewhere for us not to be going to Edinburgh? thanks
                          Hard brexit, borders closed, civil war and William Wallace’s great great great grandson to declare war on the crown.

                          Comment


                            #58
                            Originally posted by lawrence View Post

                            Hard brexit, borders closed, civil war and William Wallace’s great great great grandson to declare war on the crown.
                            None of which I would rule out...

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                              #59
                              Glasgow doing their best but behind 24-19 at HT both teams have three tries already.
                              Munster – Champions of Europe 2006, 2008, 2019.

                              Comment


                                #60
                                Going away for the QF then!
                                Stay cool .None of us are in the brain trust,right!

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