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    #16
    Thanks for that Piquet.
    We booked our flights and accommodation for Edinburgh yesterday so you've reassured me about our decision.
    However Ryanair still dont agree and their prices have gone down since yesterday.....get in there lads before they read Piquet's post!!
    Now I just hope Im also right about Edinburgh not playing at home on Sundays.
    Last edited by Surveyor; 15th-January-2019, 21:46.
    'twas wicked yousir!

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      #17
      Originally posted by jagawayagain View Post
      Other than issues with who plays who, we have a playoff competition that has 5 teams from a 14 team league with 7 qualifiers, 2 from a 14 team league with 6 qualifiers, and 1 from a 12 team league with 7 qualifiers. Better performance by PRO14, worse by Top14, Permiership remains- despite the Nigel’s best endeavours, trailing badly (again this year). There’s a massive gulf between Saracens/Exeter and wasps, Bath, Leicester, Gloucester, Newcastle- can you imagine how the rest of the premiership would have fared? The irony is that by reducing the number of groups- Premiership teams have been less successful at qualifying for the play offs.
      possibly worth docking England three places two extra for the top 14 1 extra for the CL. Its what the fans want, a more competitive competition

      Seven social sins: politics without principles, wealth without work, pleasure without conscience, knowledge without character, commerce without morality, science without humanity, and worship without sacrifice



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        #18
        Originally posted by xRedmanx View Post
        I expect Glasgow to lose away to Saracens, Ulster to win in Leicester, and Toulouse to win at home to Bath. In this case, Glasgow would come last and play Saracens away. It would be between Ulster and Toulouse to come 6th and 7th and play Racing and Leinster. If Toulouse get 5 points but Ulster only get 4, it will come down to points difference, with Toulouse probably topping it. Ulster need a winning BP, or points difference Vs Toulouse, to avoid playing Leinster.

        So I expect:
        Saracens v Glasgow
        Racing v Toulouse
        Leinster v Ulster
        Edinburgh v Munster
        That's a massive incentive for Glasgow, with Sarries already qualified they could be vulnerable, unlike in a knockout QF.
        Munster – Champions of Europe 2006, 2008, 2020.

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          #19
          Originally posted by scotscor View Post
          possibly worth docking England three places two extra for the top 14 1 extra for the CL. Its what the fans want, a more competitive competition
          With an appropriate re-allocation of the money.

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            #20
            Originally posted by rathbaner View Post

            That's a massive incentive for Glasgow, with Sarries already qualified they could be vulnerable, unlike in a knockout QF.
            Saracens are only 4 points clear of Glasgow, which means if they lose, 4-0, 5-1 or 5-0 it will threaten their home quarter final route. Losing at all will almost certainly rule out a home semi. Saracens will aim to win.

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              #21
              Originally posted by xRedmanx View Post

              Saracens are only 4 points clear of Glasgow, which means if they lose, 4-0, 5-1 or 5-0 it will threaten their home quarter final route. Losing at all will almost certainly rule out a home semi. Saracens will aim to win.
              Barring a Montpellier win Glasgow are qualified, and may even do with an MP win, so other than the possibility of a home QF, they don’t have a lot to play for. They are in a bit of a tailspin, and Saracens is one hell of a place to have to go and correct that. A win there would set them up for the rest season, but I cannot see them doing it.

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                #22
                One betting oddity. ....although they have odds on the match bet365 do not have odds on the winners of Munsters group but do on all the others.
                ​​​​​​#GiveLeinsterTheHCupNow

                Originally Posted by mr chips
                AG gets the responses he does because he is a journalist..

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                  #23
                  Originally posted by jagawayagain View Post

                  Barring a Montpellier win Glasgow are qualified, and may even do with an MP win, so other than the possibility of a home QF, they don’t have a lot to play for. They are in a bit of a tailspin, and Saracens is one hell of a place to have to go and correct that. A win there would set them up for the rest season, but I cannot see them doing it.
                  Do they not need a LBP to be sure of qualifying? With Sarries already qualified their foot could well come off the pedal a little

                  ulster could overtake them And Montpellier could pass them out, leaving them and Edinburgh on 19
                  Last edited by lawrence; 17th-January-2019, 07:26.

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                    #24
                    Originally posted by lawrence View Post

                    Do they not need a LBP to be sure of qualifying? With Sarries already qualified their foot could well come off the pedal a little

                    ulster could overtake them And Montpellier could pass them out, leaving them and Edinburgh on 19
                    It only depends on a Montpellier win, otherwise Glasgow are safely through on 19 points in second. Glasgow will know before they play.

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                      #25
                      Morning Ireland reckon that Leinster have already qualified.

                      I don't think so.

                      I'll show later on today why not.

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                        #26
                        Originally posted by xRedmanx View Post

                        It only depends on a Montpellier win, otherwise Glasgow are safely through on 19 points in second. Glasgow will know before they play.
                        My comment begins ‘Barring a Montpellier win’...I think this is very unlikely. As things stand,

                        Glasgow have a points difference of 47, and have scored 16 tries, Montpellier 52 and 20 respectively- a Montpellier and Glasgow loss win means Glasgow are overtaken as a second place team. MP win means Edinburgh lose, and without a LBP, can afford to lose by up to 14 points more than Glasgow, Edinburgh currently have fewer tries scored (15), but points difference counts first. Advantage Edinburgh I’d say. The other possible second place qualifiers are Toulouse (17) who will surely win at home, but if they don’t get more than two points Glasgow go through (PD allows Glasgow to lose very heavily, by 40 points), advantage Toulouse; or Ulster, who would need more than a losing bonus point (an LBP takes them to 19 points, but their PD is then minus, allowing Glasgow can afford to lose by about 50 points), Ulster getting more than 2 points at Leicester is likely- advantage Ulster.

                        In short, Glasgow will be wishing Edinburgh well tonight- Edinburgh are all but there, and you’d expect atoulose to do the necessary- then it’s Ulster vs Glasgow for the last second place berth.

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                          #27
                          Originally posted by jagawayagain View Post
                          In short, Glasgow will be wishing Edinburgh well tonight- Edinburgh are all but there, and you’d expect atoulose to do the necessary- then it’s Ulster vs Glasgow for the last second place berth.
                          Ulster v Glasgow?? I could be misreading, but if Edinburgh win, Ulster Toulouse and Glasgow will probably all qualify in 2nd place?

                          Comment


                            #28
                            Tonight's win for Edinburgh simplifies things greatly

                            At the moment, the set-up is as follows:
                            Pos Team Points PD Tries Susp
                            1 Glasgow 19 47 16 0
                            2 Ulster 18 2 16 0
                            3 Toulouse 17 10 14 0
                            4 Exeter 13 22 14 0
                            19 points is the new target for second place qualification.

                            Leinster, Racing and Glasgow are, are therefore through.

                            Exeter need to get as many points as possible and hope they are enough. If they win the Pool, they will qualify. As discussed above, 4-0, 5-1 or 5-0 would do that. Let’s say they beat Munster but not by enough to win the Pool. Winning 4-1 or 4-2 would put them on 17 points and hoping that Toulouse got no points (at home to Bath). Winning 5-2 would put them on 18 and
                            • Toulouse getting one point or none OR
                            • Ulster getting no points.
                            would qualify them.

                            If Munster were to lose and finish second, a similar scenario would face them. There are two possibilities. Munster get no points, and stay on 17. To progress, they would need Toulouse to get no points and Munster maintain their 64-10 PD advantage.

                            If Munster get one point and get to 18 Points, then either
                            • Toulouse get no points or one to send it to PD OR
                            • Ulster get no points and Munster maintain their PD advantage of 64 to 2.
                            would do.
                            Last edited by Piquet; 18th-January-2019, 21:25. Reason: Taking tonight's result into account.

                            Comment


                              #29
                              If Toulouse don’t overtake any of the second placed teams ahead of them they must stay ahead of whoever is second in Pool Two.

                              If Toulouse get no points, Munster must win Pool Two and Exeter must get three points or fewer. If Exeter win the Pool, Munster must get no points and Toulouse must overturn Munster’s PD Difference of 64-17.

                              One point for Toulouse puts them on 18. One from these two would do.
                              • Munster must win Pool Two and Exeter must get four points or fewer. If Exeter win the Pool, Munster must get no points. If Munster get one point, Toulouse must overturn Munster’s PD Difference of 64-17.
                              • Ulster must get no points and Toulouse must maintain their PD advantage of 10-2.
                              Two points for Toulouse puts them on 19 and through . Leinster are also through.
                              Last edited by Piquet; 18th-January-2019, 21:16. Reason: Revised to take tonight's result into account

                              Comment


                                #30
                                Ulster are in the second second placed spot at the moment. Unless they pass out Glasgow, they must either win their Pool or stay ahead of two of the second placed teams in the Three Pools behind them.
                                If they get no points, they need one of the following to happen:
                                • Munster win Pool Two and Exeter get four points or fewer. If Exeter get five points, Ulster must overturn Exeter’s PD advantage of 22-2.
                                • Exeter win Pool Two with Munster getting no Points. If Munster get one point, Ulster must overturn Munster’s PD advantage of 64-2.
                                • Toulouse get no points. If Toulouse get one point, it must be a try bonus and Ulster must overturn Toulouse’s PD advantage of 10-2.
                                One point puts them on 19 points and through.

                                Racing and Glasgow are through
                                Last edited by Piquet; 18th-January-2019, 21:21.

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