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    [img]smileys/mad.gif[/img]my pensionfunds aredown this month!

    Comment



      Originally posted by Dermot G

      I'm not. I'm holding the stock. Sitting tight. Why is the graph a concern btw. Profits have been increasing by 25%+ p.a. for the last 15 years [img]smileys/confused.gif[/img]

      profits indeed have been very good hence the stock moving up more than 2,000% in the last 6 years-but thats history-the market seems to be doubting whether the good times will continue hence the sell off down to just below €9 before the recent rally to €12, which has petered out somewhat.

      I wont bore you with the techincal details of the chart dermot but basically it is saying that the short term trend is down and the long term trend which has sustained it for over 5 years is being tested on the downside.

      PE ratios mean nothing in this market-the market maybe pricing Anglo Irish at 5 or 6 just now, and that screams buy (fundamentally), but if their UK interests fail to add to 2008 profit as expected, along with their polish interests etc their PE going forward maybe construed a bit expensive! (im playing the devils advocate here)

      The market discounts future events. the@@@@SPAN style="font-weight: bold;"> only @@@@/SPAN>truth is the price!

      Having said all that, judging by its results and its predictions for the future-this is a good company, and technically, it maybe that the stock has been oversold (uncertainty creates fear in markets) down to its long term trend line where it has rallied from recently and if it tests it again it is to be hoped that it rallies again with a stronger and more sustained upward movement that would be very bullish....if it breaks its long term (upward) trend line-SELL
      This country will be one entire slum unless we get into action, in spite of our literary movements and Gaelic Leagues it is going down and down. There is no life or heart left in the country.

      Comment


        They have no Polish interests. Good post though. Rightly or wrongly I'm going to hold.

        Comment




          Some great posts here folks well done, some of them have opened my eyes anyway- LL, IreFor, DermotG, etc, especially so, but given the latest UBS recommendation to Foreign portfolio managers to get lighter in Irish stocks and also given Central banks forecasting of only 3% growth here next year- what do ye think at the mo for Irish Banks such as AIB???


          p.s. Looks like adage that October being for Bears and Christmas being for Bulls is holding true this year yet again, only thing is 20 days of November were also for Bears this year...
          ____________________________________________
          Munster were great when they were Munster.

          alas they are just north munster now.......
          ____________________________________________

          Comment


            I'd be wary of banks holding large residential mortgage books tbh. AIB/BOI/IL&P etc.

            I think the housing market is totally banjaxed and we've only seen the start of the fallout yet.

            Comment


              Even without a rate rise by the ECB, the banks are raising rates to customers. I think PTSB went up a few points during the week?

              Also the ECB gave their strongest hint ever that rate rises are on the horizon. Unless m3( the supply of money) is curtailed, inflation will run away with itself.

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              Comment


                Originally posted by Daithi


                Some great posts here folks well done, some of them have opened my eyes anyway- LL, IreFor, DermotG, etc, especially so, but given the latest UBS recommendation to Foreign portfolio managers to get lighter in Irish stocks and also given Central banks forecasting of only 3% growth here next year- what do ye think at the mo for Irish Banks such as AIB???


                p.s. Looks like adage that October being for Bears and Christmas being for Bulls is holding true this year yet again, only thing is 20 days of November were also for Bears this year...


                Why listen to UBS? They obviously know nothing about prudent investment, lending or banking.

                Comment




                  Originally posted by fitzy73
                  Even without a rate rise by the ECB, the banks are raising rates to customers. I think PTSB went up a few points during the week?

                  Also the ECB gave their strongest hint ever that rate rises are on the horizon. Unless m3( the supply of money) is curtailed, inflation will run away with itself.

                  do you still think the ECB will raise rates after the US and UK have just cut theirs? Asi understand it usually these follow each other no?


                  The only difference between me and a madman is that I'm not mad.
                  - Salvador Dali (1904-1989)

                  Comment


                    Originally posted by Daithi


                    Some great posts here folks well done, some of them have opened my eyes anyway- LL, IreFor, DermotG, etc, especially so, but given the latest UBS recommendation to Foreign portfolio managers to get lighter in Irish stocks and also given Central banks forecasting of only 3% growth here next year- what do ye think at the mo for Irish Banks such as AIB???


                    p.s. Looks like adage that October being for Bears and Christmas being for Bulls is holding true this year yet again, only thing is 20 days of November were also for Bears this year...


                    I read a very ineresting piece on why the traditional 'janaury effect' would not occur this year aboput 2 weeks back....Id persoanlly keep clear off all Irish banks over year end at this stage myself......
                    Seas suas agus troid!

                    Comment


                      Originally posted by glorob
                      Originally posted by Daithi


                      Some great posts here folks well done, some of them have opened my eyes anyway- LL, IreFor, DermotG, etc, especially so, but given the latest UBS recommendation to Foreign portfolio managers to get lighter in Irish stocks and also given Central banks forecasting of only 3% growth here next year- what do ye think at the mo for Irish Banks such as AIB???


                      p.s. Looks like adage that October being for Bears and Christmas being for Bulls is holding true this year yet again, only thing is 20 days of November were also for Bears this year...


                      Why listen to UBS? They obviously know nothing about prudent investment, lending or banking.


                      A bit of a stupid post that 1....1 section of their business(like the rest of the markets) has done really poorly this year mtm wise...you cant taint an entire group based on that though.
                      Seas suas agus troid!

                      Comment




                        Originally posted by fitzy73
                        Also the ECB gave their strongest hint ever that rate rises are on the horizon. Unless m3( the supply of money) is curtailed, inflation will run away with itself.

                        Fitzy ,that statement from the ecb(and a few subsequent from certain members) is, how do I put this, basically they talking through their holes.......Ive posted a page or two back on this already,and my comments from them hold firm...you can also add the slowing major economies of Europe like Germany, rate rises,in any form,would be crazy. Fair enough the ecb seems to have taking over the old German CB attitude of controlling infaltion being their only goal, but sending Europe into recession ,and a potentially serious one, can not be on their cards...we,along with numerous major investment banks, are happily forcasting a rate drop by the ecb, correlated highly to how quick the fed moves...Europe can not handle the dollar rate at its current levels, let alone with further depreciation if we fail or seriously lag any further us rate cuts.....Expect the ecb to have to cut at least once early next year, despite them trying to paint ad ifferent picture and scare the markets with some hawkish comments that they have control of anything....
                        Seas suas agus troid!

                        Comment




                          some comments on the fed move yesterday-or lack of...for those of ye interested:





                          Media Reports Suggest Possibility of Near-Term Fed Discount Window


                          Actions


                          Multiple media reports suggest Fed action to increase attractiveness of


                          discount window borrowing is likely before the end of the month,


                          possibly "within days." If validated by Fed action, this would address


                          one of the two areas of market disappointment with today's FOMC


                          statement-but credibility issues would remain.





                          KEY POINTS:


                          1. Today's Fed statement was clearly a major disappointment to markets.


                          Although the Fed cut the funds rate 25 basis points as we and others


                          expected, it disappointed the market in two ways: a) the accompanying


                          policy statement did not acknowledge clearly that weaker growth is the


                          primary risk to the US economy, b) no separate action was taken to


                          address money market strains via the discount rate, other than the


                          customary lock-step move of the discount rate in line with the funds


                          rate.


                          2. However, over the past few hours, multiple media outlets -


                          including CNBC, Reuters, and the Wall Street Journal - have reported


                          that Fed officials are considering action to ease credit and money


                          market strains, which would address the second of these two


                          disappointments. Specifically, the WSJ noted that Fed officials


                          "continue to consider ways of using various tools - including the


                          discount rate - to combat banks' unwillingness to lend even to each


                          other, which they view as a threat to economic growth. The central bank


                          could take action within days."


                          3. The sudden and consistent message from different journalists


                          suggests an orchestrated effort to get a message out to the markets.


                          Why the apparent shift? Either a) Fed officials had been thinking along


                          these lines, but wanted a clear separation between actions to address


                          the balance of growth and inflation risks (the FOMC's changes to the


                          funds rate) and actions to address liquidity issues in the market (the


                          Board of Governors' option to cut the discount rate) or b) the


                          intensity of the market's reaction to today's statement convinced


                          officials to backtrack. Given the abruptness of the change and the


                          apparent concern with getting the message out to the markets, the


                          latter appears more likely.


                          4. At any rate, some action on the discount rate now looks to be a


                          realistic possibility before the end of the month, and could well come


                          before the end of the week. This could consist of one or more of the


                          following actions: a) a cut in the discount rate, bringing the spread


                          with the funds rate down to 25bp or possibly a bit less, b) an


                          extension of the term of discount window loans from 30 days to 60-90


                          days, c) further loosening of collateral requirements. In our view, two


                          or more of these options would look more credible as a sort of


                          "liquidity package"; a standalone discount rate cut or tweaking of


                          terms would appear feeble.


                          5. Although a move on the discount rate would assuage some of the


                          disappointment from today's action, it will not completely resolve the


                          market's disappointment. First, the FOMC's unwillingness to acknowledge


                          clearly that the balance of risks lies to the downside would remain.


                          Second, the clumsiness of this about-face will cost the Fed some


                          credibility, and that will make the job of Fed officials that much


                          harder in the months ahead.
                          Seas suas agus troid!

                          Comment


                            Originally posted by LLCOOLJ14
                            Originally posted by glorob
                            Originally posted by Daithi


                            Some great posts here folks well done, some of them have opened my eyes anyway- LL, IreFor, DermotG, etc, especially so, but given the latest UBS recommendation to Foreign portfolio managers to get lighter in Irish stocks and also given Central banks forecasting of only 3% growth here next year- what do ye think at the mo for Irish Banks such as AIB???


                            p.s. Looks like adage that October being for Bears and Christmas being for Bulls is holding true this year yet again, only thing is 20 days of November were also for Bears this year...


                            Why listen to UBS? They obviously know nothing about prudent investment, lending or banking.


                            A bit of a stupid post that 1....1 section of their business(like the rest of the markets) has done really poorly this year mtm wise...you cant taint an entire group based on that though.


                            What is stupid about my post?


                            UBS lost €10,000,000,000 I believe. Describing this as one section of their business doing really poorly this year is a bit of an understatement.

                            Comment



                              €10,000,000,000!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

                              That's an astronomical amount of dosh to loose. I'd go as far as to say the entire business is poorly run, and the top management inept.

                              Is this a subprime lending issue? If so the proverbial dog with a mallet would have known such lending was suicidal.

                              ...and as for the equity analysts and researchers. They are lemmings. I'd go as far as to say they are not capable of making a resonable call going against the consensus. If they advised to buy or even hold shares in co's exposed to the clearly ludicrous subprime lending market, what value have they?

                              I repeat - lemmings.



                              Comment


                                LL, respect your opinion but ...

                                The ECB's raison d'etre is to control inflation. I disagree about slowing economic activity - France recently reported a significant rise in output. Germany isn't exactly tanking either. Further, I think reducing rates is exactly what got us into this credit crunch mess in the first place - albeit that any reduction would not bring the rates back to 2003 levels.

                                Not sure if you work for an Irish bank, who are praying to mammon for rate cuts, or a European one, who are more conservative. Below are some of the comments post last ECB meeting notes.

                                @@@@SPAN ="post">
                                "History suggests that the economy has to be at a virtual standstill
                                for the ECB to cut rates," Ken Wattret, economist at BNP Paribas, is
                                reported to have said on Thursday.




                                "The bottom line is that Trichet is telling us that he is not
                                raising rates now, but if inflation increases, he will not hesitate to
                                do so," said Kathy Lien, a currency strategist at DailyFX.com.




                                Bank of America European economist Holger Schmieding said that
                                given the ECB's focus, "it would take a major downward surprise on
                                economic growth to trigger a rate cut debate in Frankfurt." Schmieding
                                commented on the fall in Eurozone retail sales in October: “If you look
                                at what people worry about, it is not jobs – it is prices.”




                                UniCredit analyst Aurelio Maccario added: "We see almost no chance
                                that the bank will seriously think about cutting rates anytime soon."@@@@/SPAN>

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                                Comment

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