Announcement

Collapse
No announcement yet.

President Trump - Season One

Collapse
X
 
  • Filter
  • Time
  • Show
Clear All
new posts

    Originally posted by tippete7trees View Post

    You understand that bookies odds are predicated on betting patterns as opposed to what bookies might know (other than opening odds which are quite sophisticatedly calculated)?
    Punters in this part of the world are likely behind the curve and equally over impressed with the sort of luck Trump has had up to recently and he's acquired a bit of a misleading aura of invincibility.
    Oxford Economics is just 1 of many leading pollsters and forecasters who think now that not only is Trump doomed - cannot win given given where he's at now.
    And he's a going to take the Republicans Senate with him. Mitch McConnell is under water in pools in every single state other than his own where he's at evens.


    there certainly is an element of believing in Trumps ability to prove the pundits wrong and win where nobody can see him win. Call it "luck" call it superstition.
    But the fact that most pundits believe Trump CAN win in the current climate is disturbing
    I would not be so quick to write off the bookies odds - and remember they have Biden comfortably winning the popular vote. The ****ed up part is the electoral college
    Trump retains 2 of Pennsylvania, Wisconsin and Michigan from 2016 he wins. He could flip Minnesota. The board is small for him in terms of where he has to win. Maybe he has to invest to hold North Carolina, Arizona, Florida. All feasible.

    He has a big advantage in "enthusiasm" - in the recent ABC Wash Post poll Biden was +13 in All eligible voters but only +5 (the margin of error) for LIKELY voters (and yes its too early and national polls are not that big a deal but its still instructive)
    Rs (and not just Trump) have shown a willingness to fight dirty in elections to do anything they have to do to win. Anybody that has followed Trump up to this moment is all in and will stop at nothing. Republicans will shut down polling places. White goons will intimidate voters. Barr will turn the DOJ on community activists

    And if Putin was willing to invest in the 2016 election you can be sure he will put a lot more resources into 2020 and China and others wont be far behind

    I personally dont think Trump will win in November. But maybe he has a 30% chance.

    And I hate those odds in terms of the damage a second Trump presidency will do to the US and to the world.

    Last edited by Yatenga; 2-June-2020, 15:07.

    Comment


      Hes a symptom, there will be other, cleverer more mendacious attempts at the oval office if the yanks dont straighten their house out.
      I am the million man.

      Comment


        I suspect you are not up to date with polls now Yatenga. Gone very seriously against Trump in last week or so. Fox news has Biden 10 points ahead. GOP behind in most Senate seats up for election.
        Stand up for the Ulcer men

        Comment


          Mind, if Trump pulls it off, there'll be a pandemic of ulcers in the US.
          Stand up for the Ulcer men

          Comment


            Originally posted by tippete7trees View Post
            I suspect you are not up to date with polls now Yatenga. Gone very seriously against Trump in last week or so. Fox news has Biden 10 points ahead. GOP behind in most Senate seats up for election.
            The ABC Wash Post poll was May 25-28. The discrepancy that bothers me is between Likely voters and registered voters/eligible voters. When you poll likely voters Biden leads narrows significantly. Any remaining Trump supporter is all in at this point.
            Just this morning the evangelical leaders have been waxing lyrical about yesterdays photo op, The Knights of Columbus (conservative lay Catholic group) have invited Trump to the National Shrine in Washington DC for later today (as I write this). The Catholic Bishop of DC has fired off a press release condemning this (he doesnt control the shrine)
            its figuratively an open culture war that could literally turn into a war - Trump will do nothing to descalate this. He fiddles while the US burns.
            https://www.washingtonpost.com/relig...le-protesters/

            Comment


              Agree with a lot of that Yatenga.
              Stand up for the Ulcer men

              Comment


                America is in deep deep trouble always had problems like most countries but with Trump at the helm he's going to ignite the divisions.
                Excellence is hard to keep quite - Sherrie Coale

                Comment


                  I'm hopeful we will see a groundswell of 'new' voters, entirely borne from the mess he's made for the last 3 years.

                  Also what needs to be highlighted is Bidens cabinet, the orange wanker has made it a throne and he has a court of nodding heads. Biden needs to show his tenure will bring the best and brightest in to those positions that trump has fired or failed to fill all along.

                  Like an actual working white house again
                  I am the million man.

                  Comment


                    Originally posted by Yatenga View Post

                    If anything his numbers are skewed the other way. Where I live in Northern Virginia he has little support, 20%? 30% - but few of those would admit to supporting him such is his toxicity. And among my circles - friend, colleagues etc. he has zero support

                    But you dont have to go far from here to see Confederate flags flying and I have inlaws (mainly white, middle class, church goers and some higher income traditional conservatives) who are quiet supporters.

                    He has succeeded in creating an us v them among his supporters, a siege mentality, where they feel they have no choice but to support him. This is Religion v Atheism, pro life v pro choice, traditional v modernity, White v Colored, Anglo Saxon v Latino,
                    What is fascinating is where the Catholic Church will go, and where the traditional Republican "liberal Protestants will go. The Episcopal Bishop of Washington (whose Church members are 40% Republican) has condemned him. Cardinal Dolan (the worst kind of Catholic Bishop) has said he understand the community of faith like no other president

                    But he does not have to win the popular vote. He will not win the popular vote. He could win the electoral college. If he wins the electoral college it will likely be a record in terms of % of the popular vote to win the presidency. Right now he is evens with the bookies to win the presidency. I believe some of that money is based on knowing that HE WILL DO ANYTHING TO WIN.
                    Thank you for the detailed perspective- am trying to follow this closely- but found this really helpful.

                    Comment


                      Originally posted by Yatenga View Post

                      there certainly is an element of believing in Trumps ability to prove the pundits wrong and win where nobody can see him win. Call it "luck" call it superstition.
                      But the fact that most pundits believe Trump CAN win in the current climate is disturbing
                      I would not be so quick to write off the bookies odds - and remember they have Biden comfortably winning the popular vote. The ****ed up part is the electoral college
                      Trump retains 2 of Pennsylvania, Wisconsin and Michigan from 2016 he wins. He could flip Minnesota. The board is small for him in terms of where he has to win. Maybe he has to invest to hold North Carolina, Arizona, Florida. All feasible.

                      He has a big advantage in "enthusiasm" - in the recent ABC Wash Post poll Biden was +13 in All eligible voters but only +5 (the margin of error) for LIKELY voters (and yes its too early and national polls are not that big a deal but its still instructive)
                      Rs (and not just Trump) have shown a willingness to fight dirty in elections to do anything they have to do to win. Anybody that has followed Trump up to this moment is all in and will stop at nothing. Republicans will shut down polling places. White goons will intimidate voters. Barr will turn the DOJ on community activists

                      And if Putin was willing to invest in the 2016 election you can be sure he will put a lot more resources into 2020 and China and others wont be far behind

                      I personally dont think Trump will win in November. But maybe he has a 30% chance.

                      And I hate those odds in terms of the damage a second Trump presidency will do to the US and to the world.
                      I fear you are right- and I’m very sceptical that Biden can really withstand a sustained attack- and he’ll get plenty.

                      Comment


                        Originally posted by Cowboy View Post
                        Click image for larger version

Name:	4500.jpg?width=620&quality=85&auto=format&fit=max&s=35aad4f4e11d6ecf90cf53c91da9ba92.jpg
Views:	76
Size:	42.1 KB
ID:	2599739
                        Click image for larger version

Name:	Screen-Shot-2020-05-31-at-6.56.58-PM.jpg?resize=1800,1200&w=1200.jpg
Views:	61
Size:	114.4 KB
ID:	2599772


                        He might be a doddering old man, he has compassion.
                        I am the million man.

                        Comment


                          https://youtu.be/rHh0-FDwo-8

                          Every election since 2016 has been a failure for Trump.
                          Stand up for the Ulcer men

                          Comment


                            https://www.theguardian.com/us-news/...p-evangelicals
                            Youve heard of the Moonies.
                            Meet the Loonies.
                            Stand up for the Ulcer men

                            Comment


                              I really like this - great graphic design

                              Click image for larger version

Name:	2EE5353B-CA1A-4222-9A42-689D4E2F2F80.jpeg
Views:	69
Size:	20.2 KB
ID:	2599778
                              "There are a lot of points that we’ve left behind and this is with a young group. That probably tells you what they’re capable of and that they’re a very good side.

                              Probably next year or the year after next they will take some stopping"

                              Anthony Foley, May 2016. Axel RIP

                              Comment


                                Originally posted by jagawayagain View Post

                                I fear you are right- and I’m very sceptical that Biden can really withstand a sustained attack- and he’ll get plenty.
                                Trumps only path to re-election is chaos. I am less worried about personal attacks on Biden (even though they will be ugly as he seeks to drag Biden down to his level so people think its a lesser of two evils choice) but that he will do everything he can to generate chaos - rioting suits him, anarchy suits him, violence suits him
                                it suits him that tens of thousands of poor black and brown people will die of COVID, it suits him that states go bust, it suits him that poverty and thus crime mounts, it suits him that rioters take to the streets
                                And there are plenty of wealthy white people who will give him hundreds of millions to campaign.
                                He will create American carnage so he can convince voters that he is all that stands between them and chaos
                                One of the few things we have going for us right now it that at heart he is a coward. And a lazy one at that. But the enablers around him like Barr, Pompeo and Pence are beyond redemption. Also they are religious zealots (Barr a traditionalist Roman Catholic, Pence and Pompeo evangelical), and truly believe in what they are doing. They are capable of anything. And I mean anything

                                On Monday the highest Justice official in the country cased Lafayette Square personally, saw peaceful protestors and gave orders for the square to the cleared. He is the person responsible for upholding the constitution and executing the laws of the country.
                                The highest military officer in the country donned fatigues and walked with the president for a photo op


                                On the streets of DC last night you had something called "DOJ police". Paramilitaries. Most people didnt even know they existed
                                https://twitter.com/dfriedman33/stat...932738/photo/1
                                They report to Barr. To the president
                                Today you had Federal Prison Service Riot Police guarding buildings.
                                https://www.npr.org/2020/06/01/86705...se-to-protests
                                The Customs and Border Patrol are getting involved and Trump has been building them up to be a kind of Praetorian Guard

                                I live in Arlington, across the river from DC. Our county police normally support the DC police in large events.
                                The County publicly withdrew their police on Monday night after the sweep of Lafayette Square
                                The White House proposed taking over control of the DC police on Monday (DC is technically under Federal Jurisdiction)

                                The whole point of all this is not necessarily a military takeover (although that would be nice), its to create chaos and destabilize the country using "law and order" as a pretext , create conditions where he can increase his chances of winning an election as the strongman needed to take back control of the street.




                                Comment

                                Working...
                                X