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    Originally posted by AwayFromHome View Post

    Repeating it endlessly on an obscure internet chat forum doesn't make it true, even if it makes you feel better. The polls haven't turned on him in any discernible way. I have given you a link above with this evidence. Can you provide real evidence that the polls are looking worse for him than a year ago?

    I believe that Trump is a disaster for the world but wishing him away isn't going to solve anything. If the Dems put up someone who fails to ignite the imagination of both their base and the swing voters (and that is genuinely a tall order) then Trump will be in the running to be reelected. I am not claiming that this scenario is a roaring certainty - just that it is more credible than the one where he collapses and is replaced by Pence before the next election
    I don't think you are grasping how thoroughly incompetent Trump is. One of the reasons he's a menace is the combination of ignorance with unshakable self belief. Even without Mueller's investigation he's doomed. As has been mentioned he's had huge luck that no major domestic or international crisis has hit him yet. Incompetence is the one thing that will destroy any political career. Funnily many hold the fantasy that a 'successful' business man will go well as a political leader. 2 different animals. He will destroy himself and it will be soon. Not because many wish this. It's a common sense assessment of how he will behave as he gets himself more boxed in. He's not made of Teflon.
    Last edited by tippete7trees; 13th-September-2018, 10:51.

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      Originally posted by tippete7trees View Post

      I don't think you are grasping how thoroughly incompetent Trump is. One of the reasons he's a menace is the combination of ignorance with unshakable self belief. Even without Mueller's investigation he's doomed. As has been mentioned he's had huge luck that no major domestic or international crisis has hit him yet. Incompetence is the one thing that will destroy any political career. Funnily many hold the fantasy that a 'successful' business man will go well as a political leader. 2 different animals. He will destroy himself and it will be soon. Not because many wish this. It's a common sense assessment of how he will behave as he gets himself more boxed in. He's not made of Teflon.
      hey, come back here with those goalposts kid!

      I'm not debating either his competence or the danger that it poses to every aspect of world affairs. I'm merely pointing out that his poll numbers haven't dropped significantly in the nearly two years since he has been elected. His base is stubbornly behind him.

      You rightly attack him for basing his decisions on his own "coomon sense" without reference to evidence. However you then go off and do exactly the same thing yourself. For the third time where is the evidence to say that his approval rating is falling to 20% as you claimed? That evidence isn't there therefore making assumptions on the basis of it is delusional. You could say in fact it is driven by a "combination of ignorance with unshakable self belief".

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        Good luck with your faith that Trump will win in 2020. Study the polls yourself. The demographic he's lost won't come back and his base wouldn't be enough to get him elected. Now, the idea that Trump uses 'common sense'.........that IS delusional LOL. He uses what he calls gut instinct............ in a narcissist, not wise. Have a read of the VOX piece a few posts ago, gives some idea of the clouds gathering over him. A haaaaard rains a gonna fall.

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          Originally posted by tippete7trees View Post
          Good luck with your faith that Trump will win in 2020. Study the polls yourself. The demographic he's lost won't come back and his base wouldn't be enough to get him elected. Now, the idea that Trump uses 'common sense'.........that IS delusional LOL. He uses what he calls gut instinct............ in a narcissist, not wise. Have a read of the VOX piece a few posts ago, gives some idea of the clouds gathering over him. A haaaaard rains a gonna fall.
          I don't have faith that Trump will win. I have concern that he will win.

          Frankly you are being illogical and cherry picking evidence and opinions that suit your own bias rather than taking a critical look at all the facts.

          For the umpteenth time I don't like Trump. I do however realize that his base is holding quite firm based on the evidence I have seen and have quoted for you to assess. I also realize that incumbents get a polling bounce closer to the election as voters start having to compare to a real flesh and blood alternative (again based on independently assessed evidence from over a half century of polling).

          For the last time can you please point to EVIDENCE for your claim that he has a 20% approval rating? I'd be delighted to see that this was true but I haven't seen any evidence of that.

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            I was referring to the mere 27% who strongly approve of Trump as opposed to the 40% + who strongly disapprove. The 60% + is the number who support Mueller..

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              Trump Defies the Law of Presidential Approval Ratings

              Commanders in chief are typically buoyed by a healthy economic climate. Not so with this president. OLIVIA PASCHAL SEP 12, 2018
              Donald Trump’s presidency has broken just about every conventional rule of American politics, but this one’s a doozy: Almost every other first-term president who’s had an economy this strong has also had an approval rating above 50 percent. Trump’s? It’s at about 38 percent, according to an average of three polls released this week by CNN, Quinnipiac University, and NPR/Marist.
              Despite a healthy August jobs report, an economy that’s the strongest it’s been in more than a decade, unemployment hovering at 3.9 percent (near May’s 18-year low), and the highest level of consumer confidence since 2000, in recent weeks Trump’s approval numbers have just kept going down. They’re significantly lower than former President Barack Obama’s approval rating at the height of the Great Recession in the fall of 2009, which hovered around 50 percent even as nearly 10 percent of Americans were unemployed.

              The culprit isn’t widespread ignorance about the surging economy. A recent poll from Quinnipiac found that 70 percent of registered voters would describe the state of the nation’s economy right now as “excellent” or “good.” A full 65 percent of Americans expect economic conditions to be good a year from now, the highest number in years, according to a CNN poll released Monday. And many Americans are giving Trump, not Obama, credit for the state of the economy, says Karlyn Bowman, a public-opinion analyst and a senior fellow at the conservative American Enterprise Institute. “It’s definitely his economy now,” she told me. So what’s going on?

              The most obvious explanation is the scandals that have rocked the Trump administration from day one. “There’s been an unbelievable torrent of bad news from Donald Trump, and that takes a toll,” said Alexander Coppock, a political-science professor at Yale who researches public opinion and polling. “There’s a constant stream of bad things coming from the White House.”

              In recent weeks, what already seemed like an oversaturated presidential-scandal market got even more full. Between convictions for the Trump associates Michael Cohen and Paul Manafort, and the dirty laundry aired in Bob Woodward’s new book, Fear, and an anonymous New York Times op-ed—both of which allege widespread discontent with the president within his own White House—it’s been a rough few weeks for the administration. And it’s taking a toll. Coppock says commentators who call Trump a “Teflon president” who’s immune to criticism or scandal are missing a key point: His approval ratings are “historically low, and have been for the entirety of his presidency.”

              There’s always a new low for the Trump White House.

              According to the Quinnipiac poll, registered voters don’t trust the president: Sixty percent said he’s not honest, up two percentage points from July. They think his own administration is undermining him: Fifty-five percent said they believe the Times column alleging that senior administration officials are “working behind [Trump’s] back.” And they’re not confident he’s fit to serve as president: Fifty-five percent of registered voters told Quinnipiac just that, including 42 percent of white voters without a college degree.

              If the never-ending scandals are harming Trump this badly, there’s a case to be made that the economy is the only thing keeping his numbers as high as they are. Looking at the data from this new batch of polls, this might be the case. According to the CNN survey, Trump’s disapproval rating among Americans when it comes to the economy is 44 percent, 14 points better than his overall disapproval rating. Meanwhile, almost half of Americans in that survey—and, crucially, half of those polled who self-identify as independent—approve of how he’s handled the economy.

              How much credit Trump deserves for the strong economy is up for debate. As his predecessor, Obama, noted in a speech last week, job numbers have been increasing for several years. Writing in the National Review, Michael R. Strain said the Trump economy is “mostly … a continuation of previous trends,” though he credited Trump with increasing small-business optimism and bumping up the GDP. But even some left-leaning commentators, notably Vox’s Matthew Yglesias, have argued that the economy’s strength is at least partially due to the help corporations got from the tax cuts Trump signed into law late last year. “There’s no rational basis for denying that Trump providing a little extra fiscal boost is helping get us to full employment,” Yglesias wrote on Tuesday.

              But this relative confidence in Trump’s economic maneuvers doesn’t seem to extend to his actions in the international economic sphere. Fifty-three percent of respondents to the CNN poll said they disapproved of Trump’s handling of foreign trade, 3 percent more than in the same poll last month. The trade war between China and the United States could help explain these numbers; it’s destabilizing many American industries, and as the United States prepares to impose $200 billion worth of additional tariffs on Chinese products, there’s no end in sight to the barrage of back-and-forth tariffs.

              Two months out from Election Day, it’s unclear what effect Trump’s unpopular presidency will have on the midterms—and whether the strength of the economy will help counteract it. An NPR/Marist poll released Wednesday found support for Republicans plummeting in key parts of the country: Midwestern voters have swung 13 points in favor of the Democrats since July, small-town voters by 11 points, and rural voters by six points. If the trade war in particular starts to go south, Bowman said, it could have major consequences. “Some people say that, as they go out and talk to a lot of these people who are being affected by the tariffs, that they want to give Trump a little more time,” she said. “If it begins to really hurt, of course it could hurt him in the fall in a lot of very important places.” We want to hear what you think about this article.

              Submit a letterto the editor or write to letters@theatlantic.com.
              I am the million man.

              Comment


                Originally posted by tippete7trees View Post
                I was referring to the mere 27% who strongly approve of Trump as opposed to the 40% + who strongly disapprove. The 60% + is the number who support Mueller..
                So, cherrypicking numbers that suit the desired outcome. The reality is that you don't need to strongly approve of someone to tick the box for them on election day. Trump's overall approval rating is consistently above 40%. None of the absolutely crazy **** that he has said or done has caused that number of waver - that should be frightening.

                Even if Trump were to be taken down by Mueller it indicates to all aspiring President's that there is a huge voting pool that will lap up the kind of crap that Trump throws out. Unlike Brexit that voting pool is not over 65 so it will be something that can be tapped into in 2020, in 2024 and in 2028 and beyond. Trump may go this year, he may lose an election in 2020 he may last until 2024 but the underlying problem of white nationalism in the US is not going to disappear when he does.

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                  You seem to be obsessed with the 'simple' polls numbers but polling is much more sophisticated now than in times past. You also need to look at the demography of those for and against. Further, you cannot compare Trump's polls to previous trends as there's never been anybody like him in modern times. (1) he's not within a zillion miles of being a skilled politician (2) he's very very dumb about complex scientific, economic and social issues. That's clear now to the swing voters. The reason why he can say he could shoot somebody on 5th Ave and not lose support is not because his base think the sun shines out of his asbo............it's because they are the ilk who would also shoot their opponents gladly if they thought they could get away with it. The key with his demography is he's lost the swing voters who gave him a chance in protest at many things they blamed on the orthodox politicians. He cannot recover them because they now see they were stupid to support such a clown. His KKK fans are too dumb to appreciate how disastrous in reality their policies are but the swing voters are gone. He only won through luck with the electoral college system and some targeting by nefarious actors in a few key constituencies. He will not get those bonuses again - in fact as the medium term effects of his economics emerge, his numbers will plummet more (if he's still there). As far as others trying his 'brand'........rubbish. One good thing out of this is he's destroyed that brand. Your rationale that I'm looking through bias is silly I'm not on any of their sides. I know enough about economics to see how dumb (and self serving) he is. Disaster certain. You seem to have leaning towards conspiracy theories and this invariably produces fairy world analysis of events.

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                    Manaphucked has flipped, he might get to wear socks again after all
                    Paul Manafort: Trump's ex-campaign chair strikes plea deal with special counsel
                    • Manafort is expected to plead guilty in Washington DC trial
                    • Robert Mueller submits new filing outlining charges

                    Jon Swaine in New York
                    @jonswaine
                    Fri 14 Sep 2018 14.44 BSTLast modified on Fri 14 Sep 2018 14.48 BS
                    Paul Manafort is expected to plead guilty.
                    Paul Manafort is expected to plead guilty. Photograph: Yuri Gripas/Reuters
                    Paul Manafort, Donald Trump’s former campaign chairman, is preparing to plead guilty in a Washington court on Friday to avoid a second trial on further criminal charges.

                    A new filing outlining charges against Manafort was filed to court in Washington DC on Friday morning by Robert Mueller, the special counsel.

                    The filing strongly indicated that Manafort had reached an agreement with Mueller, who had been preparing to prosecute him in Washington DC this month on charges including conspiracy, money laundering and witness tampering.

                    Manafort, 69, was last month convicted of eight counts in a fraud case brought by Mueller’s office in Virginia. The veteran Republican operative could be sentenced to decades in prison for those crimes. The agreement brings an end to several weeks of negotiations between his lawyers and Mueller’s team. He was scheduled to appear in court at 11am on Friday, an entry in the court docket said.

                    Attorneys for Manafort did not respond to requests for comment.

                    It was not clear whether Manafort had agreed to cooperate with Mueller’s inquiry into Russian interference in the 2016 election. He was previously reported to be resisting Mueller’s demands for information relating to Trump in return for a deal.
                    Before joining Trump’s campaign, Manafort worked extensively for pro-Kremlin politicians and oligarchs in Ukraine. Mueller’s team has been investigating whether his connections in the region are linked to Russia’s attack on the 2016 US election. US intelligence agencies have concluded that Russia worked to boost Trump’s campaign.

                    Following Manafort’s conviction in Virginia, Trump said he felt “very badly” for Manafort and praised him for refusing to become a cooperating witness for the government like the president’s former legal fixer, Michael Cohen, who separately pleaded guilty in New York to tax fraud, bank fraud and a campaign finance violation.

                    Trump’s attorney, Rudolph Giuliani, was quoted on Thursday saying that the president’s team remained in “open communication” with Manafort’s as part of an agreement to share information, renewing speculation that Trump may pardon the former aide for his crimes.

                    “There’s no fear that Paul Manafort would cooperate against the president because there’s nothing to cooperate about and we long ago evaluated him as an honorable man,” Giuliani told Politico.

                    Manafort has been in jail for almost three months after his bail was revoked. Mueller’s team alleged that Manafort tried to tamper with witnesses in his case by contacting them and attempting to coordinate testimony. He was also charged with failing to register as a foreign agent.
                    I am the million man.

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                      Not clear yet but you'd have to suspect some form of cooperation on the Russian conspiracy. Observers have been saying for a long time that the Washington charges are a 'slam dunk' for Mueller so why would Mueller give him any respite unless..........he got something really useful to him. If he has completely flipped Julie Fanny is toast, Toad in the hole LOL. Apparently Trump hasn't really slept much since the NY Times op-ed, completely paranoid not having a clue who wrote it and suspecting everybody. De sparks will start flying now!
                      BTW, Manafort is surely smart enough to see that Trump is a goner anyway and the chances of the pardon wheeze are the long odds. Take his medicine - he's surrendering a huge amount of assets in this plea and will have to do jail time too - and put his Ostrich shirt on the pedigree runner Mueller.
                      Last edited by tippete7trees; 14th-September-2018, 15:39.

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                        Manafort must have something good for the prosecutor to agree to a deal, he was looking at the rest of his life in prison if every charge stuck.
                        "It’s not the team you support, it’s the club you should support. The team on the pitch will ebb and flow because that’s the nature of sport. No team has ever been successful decade on decade. The club has the history and that’s the passion you should have."

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                            https://twitter.com/ShimonPro/status...23611353198592

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                              If Manafort is going to cooperate on the Russian investigation any plea deal will not permit him to be selective in his answers and briefings. He'll have to be fully candid on all questions.


                              https://twitter.com/ShimonPro/status...32968799244290

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                                BBC confirming that Manafort will cooperate on the Russia investigation.

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