Announcement

Collapse
No announcement yet.

President Trump - Season One

Collapse
X
 
  • Filter
  • Time
  • Show
Clear All
new posts

    Originally posted by Cowboy View Post
    It's clickbait.
    And I clicked. ****itanyway. :_explosion__rvmp_by
    "We will not walk in fear, one of another. We will not be driven into an age of unreason if we dig deep into our history and remember we are not descended from fearful men" Edward R Murrow

    "Little by little, we have been brought into the present condition in which we are able neither to tolerate the evils from which we suffer, nor the remedies we need to cure them." - Livy


    "I think that progress has been made by two flames that have always been burning in the human heart. The flame of anger against injustice and the flame of hope that you can build a better world" - Tony Benn

    Comment


      It's about the level of insight you'd expect from someone whose career is maintained entirely by outrage clicks.
      "It’s not the team you support, it’s the club you should support. The team on the pitch will ebb and flow because that’s the nature of sport. No team has ever been successful decade on decade. The club has the history and that’s the passion you should have."

      Comment


        Originally posted by whimpersnap View Post
        Don't underestimate how many people in Ireland love Trump and all his ****e.
        Havent met any myself (that have admitted it), hopefully they arent that widespread
        Last edited by Hugged Rugger; 8-January-2018, 08:48.
        "Some people don't know their easy lives... I wouldn't be so ungrateful" - Fiacre Ryan - #AutismAndMe

        Comment


          I received a PDF copy of a certain newly published volume of relevance to this thread over the weekend.

          If you think you'd like to receive same pm me with an email.

          Sent from my F3111 using Tapatalk

          Comment


            Originally posted by Balla Boy View Post
            The view was expressed here (by you and some others) that ongoing growth in the American economy pretty much assured Trump would be re-elected.

            I pointed out that getting to the election without a downturn would be unprecedented in over a century of American economics, and would beat the golden age of the post war American economy in the 50s and 60s for growth. At a time when the inflationary bubble in stocks already suggests that things are going awry, and when growth to date has required stimulus measures to kick it off.

            My view is that it is just about inconceivable that the US is going to put down another 3 years of uninterrupted growth. And that, therefore, Trump would have to go back to the country explaining his failure to deliver that.

            That is not a wild punt. It is you (as is your wont) who is insisting that things that have never happened before are equally probably to things that have happened with regularity and that both economists and business leaders accept are baked into the current economic model.

            I didn't say that the economy would be suffering from that downturn at the next election. I said that ongoing growth for that length of time was unsustainable, and that asserting it as a guarantor of his re-election was foolhardy.


            The conflict you imagine between that and saying that he may not stand for re-election for entirely different reasons really exists entirely in your own mind. And seems to be rooted in your failure to understand any of the arguments at hand.
            Fair enough, you believe, that based on historical precedent there will be a period of non growth before the next US election and Trump if he survives or stands for election - will have to explain that to the US electorate - and may not therefore in scenario get re-elected.

            The reason that I dont share that view is that Trump(should he survive) is much less likely to be deflected by any non economic issue in pursuit of sustained US growth.

            We shall see...
            Last edited by AdolphusGrigson; 8-January-2018, 09:21.
            ​​​​​​#GiveLeinsterTheHCupNow

            Originally Posted by mr chips
            AG gets the responses he does because he is a journalist..

            Comment


              Originally posted by AdolphusGrigson View Post
              Fair enough, you believe, that based on historical precedent there will be a period of non growth before the next US election and Trump if he survives or stands for election - will have to explain that to the US electorate - and may not therefore in scenario get re-elected.

              The reason that I dont share that view is that Trump(should he survive) is much less likely to be deflected by any non economic issue in pursuit of sustained US growth.

              We shall see...

              Economies don't contract because Governments deprioritise them. They contract because, well, they contract. The drivers in that cycle are inescapable.

              It is only ever a question of when, not if.

              The bulk of current economists are giving the current US growth period another 18 months to 2 years, longevity provided by the fact that initial growth was slow, coming out of a deep recession and stimulus measures have left cash in the economy.

              But saying there'll be a contraction isn't "based on historical precedent" in the way you imply. Apples fall out of trees. If I predict that the next apple will fall out of the tree, it won't fall because of "historical precedent".

              Economic expansions don't carry on forever. They just don't.

              And you continue to ignore the fact that this economy has been growing for an almost unprecedented length of time already. Already the third longest on record. It's likely to become the longest - that will give it 18 months.

              At that point, it won't matter what Trump or anyone else does. A recession will happen. His only hope on that front is that somehow the economy defies gravity until after the polls close. If he's running at all.

              No one - Goldman Sachs, Morgan Stanley, whoever - think that that will happen.

              And whether your anti-economist reverse snobbery allows for it or not, the people at Goldman Sachs know a lot more about making money than you or me.
              "We will not walk in fear, one of another. We will not be driven into an age of unreason if we dig deep into our history and remember we are not descended from fearful men" Edward R Murrow

              "Little by little, we have been brought into the present condition in which we are able neither to tolerate the evils from which we suffer, nor the remedies we need to cure them." - Livy


              "I think that progress has been made by two flames that have always been burning in the human heart. The flame of anger against injustice and the flame of hope that you can build a better world" - Tony Benn

              Comment


                Originally posted by Balla Boy View Post
                Economies don't contract because Governments deprioritise them. They contract because, well, they contract. The drivers in that cycle are inescapable.

                It is only ever a question of when, not if.

                The bulk of current economists are giving the current US growth period another 18 months to 2 years, longevity provided by the fact that initial growth was slow, coming out of a deep recession and stimulus measures have left cash in the economy.

                But saying there'll be a contraction isn't "based on historical precedent" in the way you imply. Apples fall out of trees. If I predict that the next apple will fall out of the tree, it won't fall because of "historical precedent".

                Economic expansions don't carry on forever. They just don't.

                And you continue to ignore the fact that this economy has been growing for an almost unprecedented length of time already. Already the third longest on record. It's likely to become the longest - that will give it 18 months.

                At that point, it won't matter what Trump or anyone else does. A recession will happen. His only hope on that front is that somehow the economy defies gravity until after the polls close. If he's running at all.

                No one - Goldman Sachs, Morgan Stanley, whoever - think that that will happen.

                And whether your anti-economist reverse snobbery allows for it or not, the people at Goldman Sachs know a lot more about making money than you or me.
                Comparing apples and oranges is one thing but comparing apples and economies is another - and comparing proper science (where predictability rates are very good) like (Newtonian) physics with improper sciences like Economics (where predictability rates are not good ) quite another too. As the old chestnut goes - Economists have predicted 10 out of the last 3 recessions.

                People should trust experts and currently it would be doing a great disservice to the rest of the field to include economic forecasters in that.

                As I say we shall see..
                ​​​​​​#GiveLeinsterTheHCupNow

                Originally Posted by mr chips
                AG gets the responses he does because he is a journalist..

                Comment


                  Originally posted by AdolphusGrigson View Post
                  Comparing apples and oranges is one thing but comparing apples and economies is another - and comparing proper science (where predictability rates are very good) like (Newtonian) physics with improper sciences like Economics (where predictability rates are not good ) quite another too. As the old chestnut goes - Economists have predicted 10 out of the last 3 recessions.

                  People should trust experts and currently it would be doing a great disservice to the rest of the field to include economic forecasters in that.

                  As I say we shall see..
                  The idea that predicting that a growth cycle will end falls into the vague end of economic forecasting is utter nonsense.

                  We'll see, as you say. And it will turn out that yet another of your "great unknowables" was actually pretty much known by the people you were disputing it with.
                  "We will not walk in fear, one of another. We will not be driven into an age of unreason if we dig deep into our history and remember we are not descended from fearful men" Edward R Murrow

                  "Little by little, we have been brought into the present condition in which we are able neither to tolerate the evils from which we suffer, nor the remedies we need to cure them." - Livy


                  "I think that progress has been made by two flames that have always been burning in the human heart. The flame of anger against injustice and the flame of hope that you can build a better world" - Tony Benn

                  Comment


                    Originally posted by Balla Boy View Post
                    The idea that predicting that a growth cycle will end falls into the vague end of economic forecasting is utter nonsense.

                    We'll see, as you say. And it will turn out that yet another of your "great unknowables" was actually pretty much known by the people you were disputing it with.
                    I always speak "nonsense" of course...

                    I do appreciate a quality debate.
                    ​​​​​​#GiveLeinsterTheHCupNow

                    Originally Posted by mr chips
                    AG gets the responses he does because he is a journalist..

                    Comment


                      The current boom will end - when is the key question. Looking at historical trends gives some sense of timing, but not the whole picture. What is pretty sure is the longer the bull run goes, the sharper the correction.

                      The cupboard is looking pretty bare for the next recession - low interest rates, printing money have been done. There is some suggestion that during the next recession we might see negative interest rates, which will be a fairly radical step.

                      http://www.telegraph.co.uk/business/...top-economist/
                      Last edited by fitzy73; 8-January-2018, 13:36.
                      Please support Milford Hospice. Click here to donate.

                      Comment


                        Originally posted by AdolphusGrigson View Post
                        I always speak "nonsense" of course...

                        I do appreciate a quality debate.


                        No you don't. You far prefer to sound off baseless assertions and then move the goalposts when you're proved wrong.


                        Quality debate is wasted on you, and when that's pointed out you resort to shroud waving about being talked down to.


                        And somehow you imagine that all of this isn't visible to just about everyone.


                        And you do, on the whole, spout nonsense. I can't remember you saying anything erudite or interesting about anything.
                        "We will not walk in fear, one of another. We will not be driven into an age of unreason if we dig deep into our history and remember we are not descended from fearful men" Edward R Murrow

                        "Little by little, we have been brought into the present condition in which we are able neither to tolerate the evils from which we suffer, nor the remedies we need to cure them." - Livy


                        "I think that progress has been made by two flames that have always been burning in the human heart. The flame of anger against injustice and the flame of hope that you can build a better world" - Tony Benn

                        Comment


                          Originally posted by fitzy73 View Post
                          The current boom will end - when is the key question. Looking at historical trends gives some sense of timing, but not the whole picture. What is pretty sure is the longer the bull run goes, the sharper the correction.

                          The cupboard is looking pretty bare for the next recession - low interest rates, printing money have been done. There is some suggestion that during the next recession we might see negative interest rates, which will be a fairly radical step.

                          http://www.telegraph.co.uk/business/...top-economist/

                          I think the slow rate of growth will be a bit of a life saver. I wouldn't expect a massive correction, to be honest, as the actual growth in the economy has been moderate, if sustained.

                          But you're right that there'll be little to be done are riding it out.

                          That's not that unusual though. In the UK recession of the 90s interest rates were reduced to an "emergency" 6%...
                          "We will not walk in fear, one of another. We will not be driven into an age of unreason if we dig deep into our history and remember we are not descended from fearful men" Edward R Murrow

                          "Little by little, we have been brought into the present condition in which we are able neither to tolerate the evils from which we suffer, nor the remedies we need to cure them." - Livy


                          "I think that progress has been made by two flames that have always been burning in the human heart. The flame of anger against injustice and the flame of hope that you can build a better world" - Tony Benn

                          Comment


                            Originally posted by Balla Boy View Post
                            No you don't. You far prefer to sound off baseless assertions and then move the goalposts when you're proved wrong.


                            Quality debate is wasted on you, and when that's pointed out you resort to shroud waving about being talked down to.


                            And somehow you imagine that all of this isn't visible to just about everyone.


                            And you do, on the whole, spout nonsense. I can't remember you saying anything erudite or interesting about anything.
                            lols x 10
                            ​​​​​​#GiveLeinsterTheHCupNow

                            Originally Posted by mr chips
                            AG gets the responses he does because he is a journalist..

                            Comment


                              Stop clicking each other's bait lads perhaps
                              I am the million man.

                              Comment


                                Ireland as ever will be polite and nice to Donald, like with the Iraq war, if Yankee planes need a bit of refuelling then of course Shannon is yer only man and you can park neutrality for less awkward issues.

                                Of course if you build your economic strategy around attracting Yankee companies it would not be wise to pish off the commander in chief or whatever Donald calls himself.

                                Leo will be doing the Leprechuan/Guinness routine on the 17th March shure as eggs is eggs.

                                No choice really.
                                ​​​​​​#GiveLeinsterTheHCupNow

                                Originally Posted by mr chips
                                AG gets the responses he does because he is a journalist..

                                Comment

                                Working...
                                X