Announcement

Collapse
No announcement yet.

Brexit referendum and negotiations 2016-19

Collapse
X
 
  • Filter
  • Time
  • Show
Clear All
new posts

    Northern Ireland and Scotland are where the action is.

    England is doomed.

    Wales is irrelevant.

    Ireland (26 Counties) is working out how to cut its own throat. FG is governing by malign neglect.
    That will come a cropper sooner or later.
    Munster – Champions of Europe 2006, 2008, 2020.

    Comment


      Originally posted by rathbaner View Post
      Northern Ireland and Scotland are where the action is. - Two regions that are not economically viable on their own. NI is well flagged; a UK divorce for Scotland would be very difficult to negotiate from London fairly - they are vulnerable on North Sea oil and the defence industry, and the economy would have to make severe corrections to close a yawning budget deficit.

      England is doomed. On what basis? It a successful economy, is consistently pro-Brexit, and while it may have to make some significant adjustments post-Brexit, it has the resources to do this. The decade will hardly be a boom, but neither will it be doomed.

      Wales is irrelevant. Possibly, but not sure in what context.

      Ireland (26 Counties) is working out how to cut its own throat. FG is governing by malign neglect.
      That will come a cropper sooner or later. What's this got to do with Brexit?
      "I don't believe in fairytales," O'Connell once told me, "even though it feels like I've been lucky enough to live through a few. However it ends, I'll feel lucky."
      Donald McRae, Guardian Rugby, October 2015

      Comment




        The idea that Labour would have fared better as a full on Remain party just doesn't wash for me. Figures from Yougov today suggest that Johnson won the votes of 2/3rds of Tory Remainers, and 1/3rd of Labour leavers.

        The abiding lesson is that, come hell or high water, Tories are Tories.
        "We will not walk in fear, one of another. We will not be driven into an age of unreason if we dig deep into our history and remember we are not descended from fearful men" Edward R Murrow

        "Little by little, we have been brought into the present condition in which we are able neither to tolerate the evils from which we suffer, nor the remedies we need to cure them." - Livy


        "I think that progress has been made by two flames that have always been burning in the human heart. The flame of anger against injustice and the flame of hope that you can build a better world" - Tony Benn

        Comment


          Originally posted by Balla Boy View Post

          The idea that Labour would have fared better as a full on Remain party just doesn't wash for me. Figures from Yougov today suggest that Johnson won the votes of 2/3rds of Tory Remainers, and 1/3rd of Labour leavers....
          Well unfortunately we'll never really know cos Labour didn't come out as a 'full on Remain party'.

          When the Conservatives offered a clear badge for the electorate to hang their hat on i.e. 'Get Brexit Done' , Labour failed to offer a contrary position e.g. 'Lets Bin Brexit'.

          They were pathetic!!!

          ____________________________________________
          Munster were great when they were Munster.

          alas they are just north munster now.......
          ____________________________________________

          Comment


            Originally posted by Daithi View Post

            Well unfortunately we'll never really know cos Labour didn't come out as a 'full on Remain party'.

            When the Conservatives offered a clear badge for the electorate to hang their hat on i.e. 'Get Brexit Done' , Labour failed to offer a contrary position e.g. 'Lets Bin Brexit'.

            They were pathetic!!!


            We don't really need that to have happened to make an educated guess though.

            Labour's 2017 vote was split about 60/40 in favour of remain. They managed to hold onto 2/3rds of that Leave vote with an ambiguous position.

            2/3rds of Tory remainers were offered two alternatives. A Lib Dem party that was offering to revoke Article 50, and a Labour Party offering a second vote.

            They still voted for the party that unequivocally stated that it would definitely, hell or high water, leave.


            In the alternative scenario, Labour would have come out totally in favour of remain. They'd have had to retain every single one of the 2/3rds of their Brexit voters. Given that one third departed based on ambiguity, I think it's fair to say that a few more would have decamped based on a definite Remain platform.

            Then they'd have had to take every single point of the vote that the Lib Dems secured. All 11.6% of it.

            That would have brought them in at 43.8 to the Tories 43.6. No real way of telling how that would have broken out in seats.


            But those are the headline numbers. Labour would have had to wipe out - totally zero - the Lib Dems and retain millions of Brexit voters on a totally committed Remain campaign.

            "We will not walk in fear, one of another. We will not be driven into an age of unreason if we dig deep into our history and remember we are not descended from fearful men" Edward R Murrow

            "Little by little, we have been brought into the present condition in which we are able neither to tolerate the evils from which we suffer, nor the remedies we need to cure them." - Livy


            "I think that progress has been made by two flames that have always been burning in the human heart. The flame of anger against injustice and the flame of hope that you can build a better world" - Tony Benn

            Comment




              Basically, if two thirds of Tory remainers choose to vote for a Brexit party, then it's game over. If the margin in the country is 52/48 remain, then all remain voters have to cross the divide.
              "We will not walk in fear, one of another. We will not be driven into an age of unreason if we dig deep into our history and remember we are not descended from fearful men" Edward R Murrow

              "Little by little, we have been brought into the present condition in which we are able neither to tolerate the evils from which we suffer, nor the remedies we need to cure them." - Livy


              "I think that progress has been made by two flames that have always been burning in the human heart. The flame of anger against injustice and the flame of hope that you can build a better world" - Tony Benn

              Comment


                The SS Albion is still heading directly for the Hard Brexit iceberg. How's Doris going to spin that when the passengers see it looming out of the mists?
                Stand up for the Ulcer men

                Comment


                  The idea that Labour could campaign to simply revoke the Art 50 notice and completely ignore the result of the referendum is a bit odd to me. Unless people mean that they could have campaigned to revoke the notice and resubmit it once the "type" of Brexit was determined. Even then I'm not sure how that differs in practice from what they actually campaigned on.

                  As far as I can see they campaigned on the only platform that made any sense given the split nature of the party.
                  "It’s not the team you support, it’s the club you should support. The team on the pitch will ebb and flow because that’s the nature of sport. No team has ever been successful decade on decade. The club has the history and that’s the passion you should have."

                  Comment


                    The problems were, they
                    1. Put forward a leader who was about as attractive to the electorate as a dog kicking p@@$ off a nettle.
                    and
                    2. They2didn't campaign on the only issue that resonated with the electorate I.e. they tried health service & inequality but the electorate wanted Brexit taken care of, funny that, hey!? Given the 3 years of dramatics beforehand.

                    No excuses, Labour were pathetic.
                    ____________________________________________
                    Munster were great when they were Munster.

                    alas they are just north munster now.......
                    ____________________________________________

                    Comment


                      Originally posted by Daithi View Post
                      The problems were, they
                      1. Put forward a leader who was about as attractive to the electorate as a dog kicking p@@$ off a nettle.
                      and
                      2. They2didn't campaign on the only issue that resonated with the electorate I.e. they tried health service & inequality but the electorate wanted Brexit taken care of, funny that, hey!? Given the 3 years of dramatics beforehand.

                      No excuses, Labour were pathetic.


                      The NHS was the top polling issue for weeks in the GE. They could have done better, but not on the platform you’re suggesting.
                      "We will not walk in fear, one of another. We will not be driven into an age of unreason if we dig deep into our history and remember we are not descended from fearful men" Edward R Murrow

                      "Little by little, we have been brought into the present condition in which we are able neither to tolerate the evils from which we suffer, nor the remedies we need to cure them." - Livy


                      "I think that progress has been made by two flames that have always been burning in the human heart. The flame of anger against injustice and the flame of hope that you can build a better world" - Tony Benn

                      Comment


                        BB, whatever the polls may have said, the critical issue was, is & will be Brexit This is obvious.
                        ____________________________________________
                        Munster were great when they were Munster.

                        alas they are just north munster now.......
                        ____________________________________________

                        Comment


                          Originally posted by Daithi View Post
                          BB, whatever the polls may have said, the critical issue was, is & will be Brexit This is obvious.
                          Again, what would you have done differently on Brexit were you in control of Labour's campaign?
                          "It’s not the team you support, it’s the club you should support. The team on the pitch will ebb and flow because that’s the nature of sport. No team has ever been successful decade on decade. The club has the history and that’s the passion you should have."

                          Comment


                            Originally posted by Jenta View Post

                            Again, what would you have done differently on Brexit were you in control of Labour's campaign?
                            I'd have run with a different leader (like maybe an electable one), and on a 'Let's Bin Brexit' agenda, for starters.

                            Then I'd have hung the Brexit Banjax around Boris' thick neck and watch him drown in the sea of public opinion ... as he should have done imho.
                            ____________________________________________
                            Munster were great when they were Munster.

                            alas they are just north munster now.......
                            ____________________________________________

                            Comment


                              Originally posted by Daithi View Post

                              I'd have run with a different leader (like maybe an electable one), and on a 'Let's Bin Brexit' agenda, for starters.

                              Then I'd have hung the Brexit Banjax around Boris' thick neck and watch him drown in the sea of public opinion ... as he should have done imho.
                              Problem was Corbyn loves brexit
                              Commemorate Nevin Spence here -
                              http://www.mycharity.ie/event/munste..._nevin_spence/

                              Comment


                                British democracy needs a strong Labour leader

                                Corbyn’s replacement should ensure that the strong Conservative majority doesn’t run out of control
                                Ian Dunt

                                The battle for Labour isn’t just over the future of the left. It’s much deeper than that. It is about securing a functioning opposition in Britain.

                                For five years, that opposition has been absent. Without it, British political life has collapsed into grim lunacy. There has been no effective scrutiny of Brexit. There has been no viable alternative government, allowing for the Conservatives to veer off into ever-more-crazed reactionary positions on issues such as human rights and immigration.

                                The problem of the absence of an opposition led to the massive 80-strong Tory majority Boris Johnson secured at the election. But it in turn threatens to make that victory even more damaging. Without some sort of parliamentary scrutiny, a government this strong will run completely out of control.

                                So there is a supreme importance that Labour gets the right leader – not just for its own interests, but for those of British democracy in general.

                                It goes without saying that the Corbynite wing of the party is already trying to prevent that from happening. It is expected to announce the timetable of the leadership campaign on January 6th. The speed is noteworthy. The faster they can move, the fewer new members can join the party to wrestle away some of their control.

                                The January 6th date is important. Under Labour rules, only new members who join up to two weeks after that date can vote in the leadership election. But even if enough moderate members do join, there are still structural advantages to the Corbyn camp. Rules put in place in 2018 required any candidate to get the support of either 5 per cent of constituency Labour parties or three affiliate bodies, two of which must be trade unions, comprising 5 per cent of affiliate membership.

                                It’s a complex system, typical of the late-night trading structure under which Labour operates. But it allows the Momentum – the Corbynite party-within-a-party – and large unions to try to stitch up the race between them, with non-favoured candidates scrambling to secure the remaining support left over.

                                The Corbynites will likely bet all their chips on Rebecca Long-Bailey and Angela Rayner. Neither candidate has much to recommend them except for their loyalties. It is extraordinary that anyone could base their political judgments on that type of quality right now, given the severity of what has just happened and the implications for Britain’s poorest communities. But anyone following the Labour far left in recent years will be unsurprised by it. Only purity matters.

                                Impressive candidates

                                There is hope though. Some of the candidates who are starting to emerge from other wings of the party are impressive. Lisa Nandy was a Brexit-sympathetic MP throughout the last few years, constantly trying to find compromises and understand how to reflect the vote of her constituents without sabotaging their livelihoods or giving a free rein to the Tories. Jess Phillips is a passionate remainer whose authenticity and commitment meant that voters even in her leave-voting seat didn’t punish her for it. She is funny and morally clear-sighted – one of the few MPs you could imagine voters wanting to see more of. Keir Starmer is a highly intelligent and forensic politician, capable of hurting Johnson on his weak grasp of detail. He is a grown-up in a toddlers’ playground.

                                These figures are not important because of the views they hold. At the moment, none of them has really started to articulate any policy proposals for where Labour finds itself. What matters is that they are intellectually present. They are thinking. They are capable of imagination.

                                That sounds like faint praise, but then the standards are set incredibly low. They are up against a wing of the party that almost seems to pride itself on a lack of self-awareness or introspection.

                                This trend goes further than just the Corbyn supporters though. Moments such as this, in the ashes of disaster, when a period of “reflection” – as politicians like to call it – is called for, are highly revealing. You can look around and see who actually is reflecting and who is just falling back on their designated position.

                                So some Brexit-supporting MPs blame everything on the second-referendum commitment, ignoring the fact that Labour support fell among remainers and would have fallen much harder without it, losing seats like Putney, Canterbury, Sheffield Hallam and many more. Some New Labour-era MPs demand a return to centrist orthodoxy, ignoring the fact that individual radical policies were often very popular and that the Tories themselves have moved to a form of Keynesian economics.

                                These are all rote answers, learned as if by heart, without any proper thought behind them.

                                What’s needed instead is an ability to see what did in fact work in Corbynism, what worked in centrism, even what worked for the Conservatives.

                                Labour doesn’t need to be caught on the Brexit hook anymore. It is happening. The debate will now move from whether it should take place to how it is taking place, in which they can unite people around the instinctively British proposition that whatever it is is not very good at all. Nor do they need to be caught on the Corbyn hook, with all the moral disaster of his association with anti-Semitism and the calamitous personal approval ratings that entailed.

                                There’s a fresh start available. It is pretty much the only positive thing one can say about Labour. If they are imaginative and intellectually honest and concerned primarily with how to win, they can make the most of it. There is no reason at all, in this volatile political climate and with a prime minister as unreliable as Johnson, that they cannot be back in power in five years.

                                But there will be plenty of people within Labour who will be set on preventing that happening. The task right now – the first task for anyone with an interest in a progressive Britain – is to defeat them.

                                Ian Dunt is editor of political news website politics.co.uk

                                Comment

                                Working...
                                X