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Brexit referendum and negotiations 2016-19

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    Easy, NI same as always. Scotland for Scots. England for (white ideally) Brits. And Wales for Brits.

    Comment



      I'm not a big believer in conspiracies, which I think generally suppose a level of competence and co-ordination that is beyond most organisations, but you have to look at the UK and wonder wtf is going on.


      The Sunday Times is running a story today about how Intelligence organisations are "furious" that Downing Street has supressed a report that names known Tory donors in relation to Russian electoral interference.

      At the same time, it's announced that the Met have decided to suspend their investigation on Johnson's use of public funds in relation to the Acari relationship until after the election. Because after someone has been elected to high office would seem the ideal time to establish whether they've abused high office.

      There's clearly a significant pressure at work in the UK system (be it consciously applied or self imposed) that is aligned not to putting the truth in front of citizens, but in protecting the interests of this administration.

      And the BBC and others are saying, essentially, **** all about it.


      Can you even begin to imagine the press response if a report into Corbyn's alleged relationships with Russia were sat on in the run up to an election?
      "We will not walk in fear, one of another. We will not be driven into an age of unreason if we dig deep into our history and remember we are not descended from fearful men" Edward R Murrow

      "Little by little, we have been brought into the present condition in which we are able neither to tolerate the evils from which we suffer, nor the remedies we need to cure them." - Livy


      "I think that progress has been made by two flames that have always been burning in the human heart. The flame of anger against injustice and the flame of hope that you can build a better world" - Tony Benn

      Comment



        Brexit Party have announced that they won't run in current Tory seats, and will "take the fight" to Labour. I'm not sure it stacks up as a strategy. Even in Leave constituencies, Labour has more Remain voters than Leave voters. If the BP draws Labour and Tory leavers at equal rates, it won't really tip Labour/Tory marginals in the Tories' favour. It would require Labour leavers to go to the BP while Tory leavers stay Tory. Which might happen, I guess, but overall I'd say it has more to do with the Farage's desire not to be seen to cost the Tories seats and potentially sink Brexit.

        It's going to be an interesting results night.
        "We will not walk in fear, one of another. We will not be driven into an age of unreason if we dig deep into our history and remember we are not descended from fearful men" Edward R Murrow

        "Little by little, we have been brought into the present condition in which we are able neither to tolerate the evils from which we suffer, nor the remedies we need to cure them." - Livy


        "I think that progress has been made by two flames that have always been burning in the human heart. The flame of anger against injustice and the flame of hope that you can build a better world" - Tony Benn

        Comment


          Originally posted by Balla Boy View Post
          Brexit Party have announced that they won't run in current Tory seats, and will "take the fight" to Labour. I'm not sure it stacks up as a strategy. Even in Leave constituencies, Labour has more Remain voters than Leave voters. If the BP draws Labour and Tory leavers at equal rates, it won't really tip Labour/Tory marginals in the Tories' favour. It would require Labour leavers to go to the BP while Tory leavers stay Tory. Which might happen, I guess, but overall I'd say it has more to do with the Farage's desire not to be seen to cost the Tories seats and potentially sink Brexit.

          It's going to be an interesting results night.
          Not fantastic news for Labour but much worse news for the Lib Dems I think. Swinson is targeting Tory remainers and would have hoped for Farage to split the Tory vote.

          Continues to look like a Tory majority is likely, which is upsetting. Almost a decade of crippling austerity, three years of utter incompetence on Brexit and a thick, bumbling racist as a leader, and still they're polling well out ahead. It just goes to show the power of controlling the message via mainstream media channels.
          "It’s not the team you support, it’s the club you should support. The team on the pitch will ebb and flow because that’s the nature of sport. No team has ever been successful decade on decade. The club has the history and that’s the passion you should have."

          Comment


            Originally posted by Jenta View Post

            Not fantastic news for Labour but much worse news for the Lib Dems I think. Swinson is targeting Tory remainers and would have hoped for Farage to split the Tory vote.

            Continues to look like a Tory majority is likely, which is upsetting. Almost a decade of crippling austerity, three years of utter incompetence on Brexit and a thick, bumbling racist as a leader, and still they're polling well out ahead. It just goes to show the power of controlling the message via mainstream media channels.
            YouGov have said they don't think it will have a major influence on the overall result, which is interesting. I think there's an admission of failure in it, really. He's lost his attempt to pressure the Tory party from the outside.

            Re: the Lib Dems, their chances come down to the willingness of Labour voters in LD/T marginals to vote for them. You're right though - hard to suspect that the likes of Johnson, IDS and others sitting on small majorities aren't slightly relieved, whatever the pollsters say.
            "We will not walk in fear, one of another. We will not be driven into an age of unreason if we dig deep into our history and remember we are not descended from fearful men" Edward R Murrow

            "Little by little, we have been brought into the present condition in which we are able neither to tolerate the evils from which we suffer, nor the remedies we need to cure them." - Livy


            "I think that progress has been made by two flames that have always been burning in the human heart. The flame of anger against injustice and the flame of hope that you can build a better world" - Tony Benn

            Comment


              It hasn't helped that the Labour party have been picking splinters out of their arse for the last two years about where they stood on Brexit. If they had come up with their current policy a few years it was a viable option, now it's too little too late. The only good that will come out of this election is that Milne and McClouskey will be consigned to the bin forever.

              Britain is utterly, utterly broken and will be f**ked sideways by a Johnson govt
              Last edited by fitzy73; 11th-November-2019, 22:06.
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              Comment


                Originally posted by Jenta View Post

                Not fantastic news for Labour but much worse news for the Lib Dems I think. Swinson is targeting Tory remainers and would have hoped for Farage to split the Tory vote.

                Continues to look like a Tory majority is likely, which is upsetting. Almost a decade of crippling austerity, three years of utter incompetence on Brexit and a thick, bumbling racist as a leader, and still they're polling well out ahead. It just goes to show the power of controlling the message via mainstream media channels.
                Also shows an inept leader of the opposition.

                Comment


                  Originally posted by The Last Stand View Post

                  Also shows an inept leader of the opposition.
                  It's actually hard to comprehend that corbyn hasn't seen this coming , his strategy has been all over the place over the last 2 years .
                  he has failed to nail down a position on the one issue that is dominating political discourse in the UK.
                  Of course it's more complex than just Brexit but in these days of social media led campaigns he is failing to connect with the electorate .
                  people dont read beyond the headlines anymore , they are swayed unfortunately by soundbites not by real debates on real issues.to see the Tories led by johnson and his erg so far ahead in polls has to be worrying for labour .
                  I really think the British people are being sleepwalked into a disastrous Brexit and there is still a real possibility of a no deal exit if Tories secure overall majority.

                  Comment


                    The unions keeping corbyn in there...
                    Any other competent soul would have nailed the tories...
                    He was as lame as a duck. Not the metaphorical lame duck either, but a real duck that was actually lame. Maybe from stepping on a land mine or something.

                    Comment


                      Originally posted by RED 49 View Post

                      It's actually hard to comprehend that corbyn hasn't seen this coming , his strategy has been all over the place over the last 2 years .
                      he has failed to nail down a position on the one issue that is dominating political discourse in the UK.
                      Of course it's more complex than just Brexit but in these days of social media led campaigns he is failing to connect with the electorate .
                      people dont read beyond the headlines anymore , they are swayed unfortunately by soundbites not by real debates on real issues.to see the Tories led by johnson and his erg so far ahead in polls has to be worrying for labour .
                      I really think the British people are being sleepwalked into a disastrous Brexit and there is still a real possibility of a no deal exit if Tories secure overall majority.
                      I don’t think the Tories will go for a no deal exit if they get their majority. They will ratify the deal, take the transition on offer and try to negotiate a Norway type agreement into the future (Canada plus). They know that they and they alone will own the fall out of a no deal. But make no mistake - they will be gone from the EU.

                      Comment


                        In an article of the Evening Standard, Nick Boles, ex-Tory MP and yesterday close to BJ had some nice words concerning the PM and his opponent Jeremy Corbyn... If they were never run down, now... The least we can say is that they are!


                        "In years to come, it will be known as the Appalling Choice of 2019. It will be cited alongside classical mythology’s Scylla and Charybdis — the one a six-headed monster and the other a whirlpool — spelling death and destruction for any passing ship. It will be recorded as the only election in modern times in which you wouldn’t trust either of the prime ministerial candidates to mind your children for an hour, let alone run the country.

                        In the blue corner, we have a compulsive liar who has betrayed every single person he has ever had any dealings with: every woman who has ever loved him, every member of his family, every friend, every colleague, every employee, every constituent.

                        As a senior member of his cabinet once put it to me: ‘You can always rely on Boris...to let you down’. His bumbling braggadocio disguises an all-consuming ego utterly without conscience, empathy or restraint.

                        In the red corner is a blinkered Pharisee, a man so convinced of his own rectitude that he sees no contradiction between his pious homilies about racism and equality and a lifetime of support for terrorists, murderers and racist thugs. Like all leaders of a totalitarian mindset, he is entirely uninterested in the lives of individual human beings. He cares only for classes and factions, and the struggle between abstract political forces
                        ."

                        "Compulsive liar"... Ha ha ha! And considering that the Brexit rowdy is another, it's hard to imagine that there's no alliance between the BP and BJ's clique despite the fact taht both declared there is no. And remembering what Farrage declared about BJ's deal, it's hard to imagine that there isn't any strategy to put a no-deal brexit on the front of the scene again if Tories win the election and get the majority.

                        Independency of Scotland nears... And the reunification of your isle too, mates!


                        Last edited by JN.Allezdax.com; 11th-November-2019, 22:06.
                        The Scots (originally Irish, but by now Scotch) were at this time inhabiting Ireland, having driven the Irish (Picts) out of Scotland; while the Picts (originally Scots) were now Irish (living in brackets) and vice versa. It is essential to keep these distinctions clearly in mind (and verce visa).

                        Comment


                          Originally posted by The Last Stand View Post

                          I don’t think the Tories will go for a no deal exit if they get their majority. They will ratify the deal, take the transition on offer and try to negotiate a Norway type agreement into the future (Canada plus). They know that they and they alone will own the fall out of a no deal. But make no mistake - they will be gone from the EU.
                          I genuinely think they will go no deal. The ERG lot were bought on the back of "get the WA over the line, then we will back you". A shed load of moderate Tories are either standing down or standing as independents. Their replacements are by in large v right wing ERG types.

                          Johnson will be under severe pressure within his own party to go nuclear and no deal. He's fully onboard the Bannon "burn it down to build it back up" bandwagon.

                          People see this election as the end of Brexit, but I'm reading it as just the start of something much, much worse.
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                            Originally posted by fitzy73 View Post
                            It hasn't helped that the Labour party have been picking splinters out of their arse for the last two years about where they stood on Brexit. If they had come up with their current policy a few years it was a viable option, now it's too little too late. The only good that will come out of this election is that Milne and McClouskey will be consigned to the bin forever.

                            Britain is utterly, utterly broken and will be f**ked sideways by a Johnson govt
                            No. On a point of information - Shirley, you would have to get off the fence to pull the splinters out of your arse.

                            Comment




                              I really disagree about the analysis of how Corbyn and Labour have managed the Brexit situation. I think they've played a very difficult hand reasonably well, but people neglect the complexity of their position.

                              Somewhere in the region of 40% of Labour's vote at the last election voted for Brexit. A vote that, for all the failings in the referendum itself, won a majority in favour of leaving.

                              My view has been consistent since that point - that it would only be possible for anyone (Labour included) to advocate effectively for an alternative position once the Tories had tried and failed to implement the Brexit that had been promised.

                              If Labour had declared for Remain prior to this point (or even now) they'd have lost a swathe of voters but also, as importantly, would have handed the Tories a narrative of obstruction and anti-democratic wrecking.

                              And so Labour have had to let this process run. The current position is only viable because two Tory PMs (3 if you count Cameron) have been unable to deliver an acceptable outcome. There wasn't even a Brexit on the table to oppose until earlier this year.

                              Whatever about his personal approval ratings or whether he seems to people to be a credible PM, I'd need a lot of convincing that Corbyn's Labour could have navigated this process any better than they have. They've arrived at a GE offering Remainers a route to do just that while being able to look their Leave voters in the eye and tell them that they gave the Govt the opportunity to deliver.



                              More broadly on polling, with Brexit as it is, I don't see how the Tories could have failed to hold onto the vote bloc they have. In 2017, Corbyn delivered a higher share of the vote than Blair delivered in two of his victories. The idea that another leader would generate a 10% swing out of somewhere is often cited (Labour should be 20 points ahead in the polls etc) but completely ignores the fact that such a performance is absolutely unprecedented and (realistically speaking) mathematically impossible.
                              "We will not walk in fear, one of another. We will not be driven into an age of unreason if we dig deep into our history and remember we are not descended from fearful men" Edward R Murrow

                              "Little by little, we have been brought into the present condition in which we are able neither to tolerate the evils from which we suffer, nor the remedies we need to cure them." - Livy


                              "I think that progress has been made by two flames that have always been burning in the human heart. The flame of anger against injustice and the flame of hope that you can build a better world" - Tony Benn

                              Comment


                                BB this and May's administration are the worse British govts since the WW2. They have been given free reign by an opposition whose position, even to those who are relatively politically astute, was a quagmire of pivots and half baked ideas. Remember the six tests? I'd say half the Labour MPs struggled to know what the hell that was about.

                                Labour has been pulled asunder by Milne and McCluskey. Just as a coherent narrative was emerging, McCluskey would go on a solo run and lurch the party back into another existential crisis.

                                Labour may have done better then expected in the last election, but that was off the back of one of the most inept Tory campaigns in a few generations. Labour still lost that election.

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