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Brexit referendum and negotiations 2016-19

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    BB that poll also showed the Tories +3 points.

    Average polling in the last week is


    CON: 38.6%
    LAB: 27.4%
    LDEM: 15.4%
    BREX: 9.8%

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      Originally posted by fitzy73 View Post
      BB that poll also showed the Tories +3 points.

      Average polling in the last week is


      CON: 38.6%
      LAB: 27.4%
      LDEM: 15.4%
      BREX: 9.8%
      I was referring more to the volatility than anything, to be honest. I just think this GE is a bit of a free for all, and any confident predictions of outcome likely to be wishful thinking.

      No one can really rule out the possibility of Johnson, Corbyn or both imploding, either party descending into factional warfare or one scandal or another engulfing someone.

      Already we have Farage saying that he's not going to stand as a candidate. What will that do to the Brexit Party vote?

      At some point, Swinson will be squeezed on not just her own voting record, but the records of the Tories she's welcomed into the Lib Dems over the last couple of months.

      And the campaign proper hasn't even started yet.

      My gut still tells me that a Lib Lab coalition is the most likely outcome, but I recognise that I'm judging that by rules of thumb that are probably obsolete themselves (incumbents tend to see a reduction in vote share, the Lib Dems never deliver on polling projections, and the personal performance of leaders on the campaign trail has largely decided every election since Blair's resignation).
      "We will not walk in fear, one of another. We will not be driven into an age of unreason if we dig deep into our history and remember we are not descended from fearful men" Edward R Murrow

      "Little by little, we have been brought into the present condition in which we are able neither to tolerate the evils from which we suffer, nor the remedies we need to cure them." - Livy


      "I think that progress has been made by two flames that have always been burning in the human heart. The flame of anger against injustice and the flame of hope that you can build a better world" - Tony Benn

      Comment


        The polling is all over the place, that's for sure.

        Brexit is the predominant theme for the elections but a few commentators are noticing a bounce for other matters ike the NHS, climate change etc. Labour generally poll well well in non Brexit issues,, and I think Corbyn will wipe the floor with Johnson on the TV debates.

        For me the single biggest "WTF" is the amount of pro remain incumbent MPs being challenged by other pro remain party in a marginal area. With votes inevitability fading away from the Brexit Party to the Tories, it's incredibly stupid for strong pro remain candidates to stand against each other.

        A hung parliament is about the best I'm hoping for.
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          Well I think the only credible outcomes are a Tory majority or a hung parliament. There really is no pathway for Corbyn to a majority unless some absolutely outrageous scandal about Boris breaks in the next few weeks (and it would have to be beyond that pale outrageous even for him, i.e. a non-negotiable resigning offense leaving the Tories in total disarray)

          For anyone with any form of progressive streak (or even an ounce of humanity) that reality has to be a bit depressing and it has to count as a fairly damning indictment of Corbyn. The Tories have had 10 years making a mess of society and now they are running on a platform of deliberately making a mess of the economy for no good reason other than "furriners and sovereignty". If Milne can't construct a campaign that dismantles this nonsense then we can label his battle of wits with Cummings as a case of "Dumb and Dumberer".

          Comment


            Originally posted by AwayFromHome View Post
            Well I think the only credible outcomes are a Tory majority or a hung parliament. There really is no pathway for Corbyn to a majority unless some absolutely outrageous scandal about Boris breaks in the next few weeks (and it would have to be beyond that pale outrageous even for him, i.e. a non-negotiable resigning offense leaving the Tories in total disarray)

            For anyone with any form of progressive streak (or even an ounce of humanity) that reality has to be a bit depressing and it has to count as a fairly damning indictment of Corbyn. The Tories have had 10 years making a mess of society and now they are running on a platform of deliberately making a mess of the economy for no good reason other than "furriners and sovereignty". If Milne can't construct a campaign that dismantles this nonsense then we can label his battle of wits with Cummings as a case of "Dumb and Dumberer".


            There are issues beyond the party that are driving some of this though. Corbyn got 40% of the national vote in 2017. That's more than Cameron got in 2015 or 2010. 5 points more than Blair got in 2005. The same as Blair got in 2001. 3% less than Blair got in his 1997 landslide.


            So he's amassed a national vote higher or on a par with the winners of 4 general elections.

            When you look at May, and her catastrophic campaign, delivering 1% less of the vote than Blair in 97 and not getting a majority, there's clearly oddness afoot in how the electorate are behaving.

            There's a lot of discussion about how a Labour majority would be a gimme under another leader. But I think the reality is that the Brexit situation gives the Tory vote a hard floor of about 40%.



            "We will not walk in fear, one of another. We will not be driven into an age of unreason if we dig deep into our history and remember we are not descended from fearful men" Edward R Murrow

            "Little by little, we have been brought into the present condition in which we are able neither to tolerate the evils from which we suffer, nor the remedies we need to cure them." - Livy


            "I think that progress has been made by two flames that have always been burning in the human heart. The flame of anger against injustice and the flame of hope that you can build a better world" - Tony Benn

            Comment


              Originally posted by AwayFromHome View Post
              Well I think the only credible outcomes are a Tory majority or a hung parliament. There really is no pathway for Corbyn to a majority unless some absolutely outrageous scandal about Boris breaks in the next few weeks (and it would have to be beyond that pale outrageous even for him, i.e. a non-negotiable resigning offense leaving the Tories in total disarray)

              For anyone with any form of progressive streak (or even an ounce of humanity) that reality has to be a bit depressing and it has to count as a fairly damning indictment of Corbyn. The Tories have had 10 years making a mess of society and now they are running on a platform of deliberately making a mess of the economy for no good reason other than "furriners and sovereignty". If Milne can't construct a campaign that dismantles this nonsense then we can label his battle of wits with Cummings as a case of "Dumb and Dumberer".
              Boris has been caught giving a job, and a lot of money, and to a bit on the side pretty young wan whilst he was Mayor London. It's barely registered on the news scale.

              He could fire bomb Norn Iron and Tories would still vote for him.
              Please support Milford Hospice. Click here to donate.

              Comment


                Good Friday agreement working well up north, UUP, DYP, SDLP, SF and the Alliance have all decided to not run in key constituencies so making the the GE to be a straight Remainer vs Brexiter shoot out, or in other words Nationalist vs Unionist
                Nulla semper amicus, servivit mihi, in iniuriam mihi neminem quem non persolvi

                Comment


                  Sinn Fein pulling out of the North Down contest to facilitate a candidate whose husband was the Chief Constable of the RUC is something that would not have happened even five years ago.
                  Tis but a scratch.

                  Comment


                    Originally posted by Balla Boy View Post


                    I don't think Corbyn is the most competent man I've ever met, but the idea that there's no discernible difference between him and the flagrantly dishonest, incompetent and corrupt Johnson is baffling to me.



                    All I'm really confident of is that we haven't yet seen the story that will decide this election. There's a lot bubbling away, but to recap the current runners and riders:

                    - Vote Leave, and by association Johnson, Gove and Cummings, have been referred to the Crown Prosecution Service by the Met Police with a view to bringing criminal charges for breaches in electoral law.

                    - Ian Lucas, Labour MP who sits on the DCMS committee, says that he has seen written evidence that Johnson and Gove knew of the overspend, and that Cummings said so.

                    - Dominic Grieve, who Chairs the Cross Party Intelligence and Security Committee, has accused Johnson of deliberately witholding publication of the committee's report on Russian interference in UK elections, including influence on the EU referendum and large scale donations to the Conservative Party.

                    - The Sunday Times is running a story today regarding Cumming's activities in Russia in the 90's. A whistleblower approached the Labour front bench who have formally asked for disclosure of Cumming's level of security vetting.

                    - Tom Watson has described DCMS's report that found the award of 100k of public money to Jennifer Arcuri's company while Johnson was sleeping with her a "whitewash" and seems to be going after it.



                    It's hard to avoid the sense that Johnson is up to his eyes in all sorts of ****e. This is a man who, famously, has failed in interviews to confirm how many children he has fathered.

                    The polls are all well and good, but wherever it comes from I'll be genuinely surprised if this election isn't heavily influenced by some sort of scandal.
                    Zero doubt in my mind that Johnson is infinitely worse than Corbyn but I think that has more to do with the failings of Johnson than any positives about Corbyn. I think its rare in history for UK politics to have such spectacularly poor leadership: Cameron, May, Johnson & Corbyn. That could be a reflection of a failure of the political class in general, or just dumb luck.

                    Comment


                      Today, Rory Carroll, the correspondent of the Guardian in Ireland wrote this:

                      "Loathing of Brexit united remainers and finally broke Northern Ireland’s binary nationalist v unionist divide. Well, so it seemed for a few heady days. Last week Steve Aiken, the incoming leader of the Ulster Unionist party (UUP), upended convention by ruling out an electoral pact with the Democratic Unionist party (DUP). As an opponent of Brexit Aiken said he felt duty-bound to run candidates in all 18 constituencies to give pro-remain unionists an alternative to the DUP.
                      Even in north Belfast, he said. Meaning Aiken was willing to split the unionist vote and give Sinn Féin’s John Finucane a better chance of taking the seat from the DUP’s deputy leader, Nigel Dodds.
                      An audacious move that prompted swift backlash. Unionists inside and outside the UUP protested. Suspected loyalist paramilitaries threatened retaliation against the UUP.
                      At the weekend Aiken caved and said his party would skip north Belfast, giving Dodds, the DUP’s Brexit policy architect, a clear run at sweeping up unionists, be they leavers or remainers.
                      The DUP, in turn, will give the UUP a clear run in the marginal seat of Fermanagh and south Tyrone.
                      The moderate nationalist SDLP then announced it too would stand aside in north Belfast to boost Finucane’s chances. (See 12pm.) The stated reason is to let remain voters rally around a single candidate, even one who would abstain from Westminster. The other reason is to pressure Sinn Féin to stand aside in south Belfast and boost the SDLP’s chance of nabbing the seat from the DUP.
                      Unionism and nationalism, remain and leave, all simmering together in a Northern Irish stew."

                      Add to this that Sinn Fein will back remainers ( https://www.theguardian.com/politics...neral-election )...

                      I'll be very interrested by what will happen in NI AFTER the general election. Your opinion? Hoping anyway there won't be any return of the violence in this part of the island...


                      The Scots (originally Irish, but by now Scotch) were at this time inhabiting Ireland, having driven the Irish (Picts) out of Scotland; while the Picts (originally Scots) were now Irish (living in brackets) and vice versa. It is essential to keep these distinctions clearly in mind (and verce visa).

                      Comment


                        Originally posted by Yatenga View Post

                        Zero doubt in my mind that Johnson is infinitely worse than Corbyn but I think that has more to do with the failings of Johnson than any positives about Corbyn. I think its rare in history for UK politics to have such spectacularly poor leadership: Cameron, May, Johnson & Corbyn. That could be a reflection of a failure of the political class in general, or just dumb luck.
                        I don't think it is either.

                        If you put aside difference of views on what is the "right" thing to do (which is a mater for elections) and limit the discuss just to are people honest about their intentions and are the competent to deliver on them if in power then on the Conservative side Grieve, Hammond, Guake, Rudd, Greening etc are all highly competent and honest (as a stretch I think even Javid and Gove could look honest and competent in better company). On the Labour side McDonnell, Starmer, Long-Bailey and Rayner are also honest if their competence in power has yet to be fully tested (and remember that Khan and Burnham have chosen for their own reasons to be mayors rather and MPs while David Milliband bowed out early after his brother won the leadership).

                        Dumb luck on the other hand would suggest that the British people are not willingly making these choices

                        Comment


                          Originally posted by AwayFromHome View Post

                          I don't think it is either.

                          If you put aside difference of views on what is the "right" thing to do (which is a mater for elections) and limit the discuss just to are people honest about their intentions and are the competent to deliver on them if in power then on the Conservative side Grieve, Hammond, Guake, Rudd, Greening etc are all highly competent and honest (as a stretch I think even Javid and Gove could look honest and competent in better company). On the Labour side McDonnell, Starmer, Long-Bailey and Rayner are also honest if their competence in power has yet to be fully tested (and remember that Khan and Burnham have chosen for their own reasons to be mayors rather and MPs while David Milliband bowed out early after his brother won the leadership).

                          Dumb luck on the other hand would suggest that the British people are not willingly making these choices
                          Johnson would sadly probably win an American style primary if that was the way UK parties chose their leaders; I dont think Corbyn would

                          Comment


                            Originally posted by Yatenga View Post

                            Johnson would sadly probably win an American style primary if that was the way UK parties chose their leaders; I dont think Corbyn would
                            Corbyn was more or less elected Labour leader (twice!) through a primary like system.
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                            Comment


                              Originally posted by JN.Allezdax.com View Post

                              I'll be very interrested by what will happen in NI AFTER the general election. Your opinion? Hoping anyway there won't be any return of the violence in this part of the island...
                              Obviously this election is, for a variety of reasons, one of the least predictable for years if not decades, but for the time being let's assume that the polls are an accurate forecast and the Tories are returned to power with a functioning majority, and they proceed to implement Johnson's withdrawal agreement. If that happens, one meagre positive in the sea of negativity is that the threat of dissident republican violence will be somewhat diminished as there shouldn't be border posts of any description for them to target. However, the introduction of a de facto customs border at the ports between GB and NI is something that many of the more strident on the unionist/loyalist side will seek to manipulate in order to create a sense of panic among their "no surrender" diehards about their identity and status being under threat.

                              From outside NI, the perception is generally that people here are either unionist or nationalist, and there isn't much recognition of the fact that there are many who may have originated from one or the other, but who have long outgrown those clothes. These people are not a majority, but they are a substantial and ever-growing cohort. These people will have no strong opinions about NI's constitutional status, but nevertheless understand the damage to their interests this Brexit deal will cause - particularly those within the business and farming sectors - and many will see closer ties with the Republic and therefore the EU as the most pragmatic way to mitigate the damage. Depending on how badly Brexit impacts on the current status quo in farming, business and just ordinary life for those who are used to crossing between the two jurisdictions whether socially or for work, it could well be enough to make the difference in a subsequent border poll. This could take place much sooner than anyone would previously have expected. Perversely, this could add to the paranoia of the hardline rump on the unionist/loyalist side, and it's entirely possible that even after a democratic vote in which a majority on both sides of the border here, however slim, end up choosing a reunited Ireland, the "forever loyal" brigade could choose to "defend Ulster", with bloody consequences.
                              Tis but a scratch.

                              Comment


                                Originally posted by fitzy73 View Post

                                Corbyn was more or less elected Labour leader (twice!) through a primary like system.
                                Labor has a few hundred thousand members. In the US when you register to vote you are given the option of registering as a Dem, as a Republican or as an Independent. With no obligations in terms of dues, or expectations. That way you have a voice in primaries. There are people who live in districts that lean strongly one way or the other who register with the majority party even if it doesnt align with their political views so as to have a voice in the primary. The proportions go up and down and right now there are significantly more registered Dems thans R but very roughly you would have 1/3 of adult population as each

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