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Brexit referendum and negotiations 2016-19

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    Originally posted by AwayFromHome View Post

    Most of that is Westminister/anorak bubble talk in reality. Very few people will be swayed by it in the ballot box. Swinson needs to keep her profile up in the next two weeks to avoid irrelevance. Media bookers and headline writers will love to see her attack Corbyn so it will continue for a short while. I hope she stays on the "we are better" side of the line than slipping over into "they are awful". Its also worth noting that Labour haven't helped by saying a vote for LD is a vote for another austerity coalition - you can't expect Swinson not to hit back at that.

    BBC had 3 first time candidates being interviewed on Parliament Sq last night and the LD was far more vicious to Labour than vice versa. I genuinely don't think that this is a good look.

    My biggest worry is the current LD polling high among 18-34 year olds (22% in this group against 17% overall). That cohort is more likely to vote by principle than tactically (which benefited Corbyn in 2017 and Labour are polling at 43% for this group still). If that 22% for LD holds it will impact some urban constituencies and at a guess this is more likely to hurt Labour than LDs

    It will be interesting to see how the rather duct taped Tory position holds together. Are the ERG going to go out to bat for Boris's deal? He'll have to commit to implementing that agreement in the event that he wins a a majority, I'm guessing.

    Which means Boris has got to go to the polls defending what is basically no deal for GB, and explaining how a border down the Irish sea works.

    I'm not sure he thrives with that sort of detail, to say the least, and it opens up his flank to the Brexit Party.

    Labour and the other parties have to find a way of exploiting that as a wedge issue.



    The other interesting oddity about this election is the number of MPs not standing for re-elecion. 55 now in total, including Amber Rudd and other high profile exits.

    "We will not walk in fear, one of another. We will not be driven into an age of unreason if we dig deep into our history and remember we are not descended from fearful men" Edward R Murrow

    "Little by little, we have been brought into the present condition in which we are able neither to tolerate the evils from which we suffer, nor the remedies we need to cure them." - Livy


    "I think that progress has been made by two flames that have always been burning in the human heart. The flame of anger against injustice and the flame of hope that you can build a better world" - Tony Benn

    Comment


      A stupid question from me, why does Johnson want a general election?
      He was as lame as a duck. Not the metaphorical lame duck either, but a real duck that was actually lame. Maybe from stepping on a land mine or something.

      Comment


        He hopes that he'll get a full majority in the Commons and that he'll wipe the opposition out to make brexit done. And being now the the cantor of Brexit, he thinks the situation is the best to get back the majority Theresa May and then he lost in the last months.
        The Scots (originally Irish, but by now Scotch) were at this time inhabiting Ireland, having driven the Irish (Picts) out of Scotland; while the Picts (originally Scots) were now Irish (living in brackets) and vice versa. It is essential to keep these distinctions clearly in mind (and verce visa).

        Comment


          Originally posted by i_like_cake View Post
          A stupid question from me, why does Johnson want a general election?
          He's lost any semblance of a parliamentary majority, with his own MPs losing the whips and the new withdrawal agreement flinging the DUP under the bus.

          He's ahead in the polls, as the Brexit vote is largely behind him while remainers are split across Labour, Lib Dems, SNP, Plaid, Greens. No idea where remainer Tories go now.

          His bet is that a quick fire election campaign with enough obfuscation of his record to date a narrative of the champion of Brexit confounded by an out of touch parliament will be enough to win him a GE.

          Cameron won a Parliamentary Majority with 36.9% of the vote in 2015. Leave is currently polling 47% or so in notional polls for a 2nd ref.

          He can see a path to a parliamentary majority if he can avoid bleeding votes to the Brexit Party.
          "We will not walk in fear, one of another. We will not be driven into an age of unreason if we dig deep into our history and remember we are not descended from fearful men" Edward R Murrow

          "Little by little, we have been brought into the present condition in which we are able neither to tolerate the evils from which we suffer, nor the remedies we need to cure them." - Livy


          "I think that progress has been made by two flames that have always been burning in the human heart. The flame of anger against injustice and the flame of hope that you can build a better world" - Tony Benn

          Comment


            This whole story is a process of destruction.
            - How could Cameron rid himself of his opposition in the party?
            - How could GB rid of themselves of EU, and now, right or wrong, but it's my opinion, how can GB rid themselves of NI?
            - How could all the racist prats get rid of people from abroad, and in this bunch, I include all who are sons and daughters of immigrants who were welcomed in the past and who (the sons and daughters) support Brexit refusing the entry of new people from abroad today?
            - How can Scotland rid themselves of England?
            - How could Johnson's clique and ERG rid themselves of Theresa May?
            - How can BJ rid himself of all kind of oppositioin in and out of the party?
            - How could the Tories rid themselves of John Bercow?
            - How can Corbyn get rid of the Labour remainers?
            - etc etc etc...
            And all that drives to an EU that waits to get rid of all this shambles when it is pulled in opposite directions, In a period where we are meaning less and less on the planet, economically, politically, diplomatically, in the domain of rtificial IntelligenceI, in the domain of the preservation of our environment, because instead of letting EU evolve we are stuck in the straitjacket of our national and regional egoisms. It was time to let EU strongly evolve, not to weaken it.
            I dunno for you, but as 200% europaist, married with a german women, with binational children I lost any hope in all that ****. The future promises to be dark.
            The Scots (originally Irish, but by now Scotch) were at this time inhabiting Ireland, having driven the Irish (Picts) out of Scotland; while the Picts (originally Scots) were now Irish (living in brackets) and vice versa. It is essential to keep these distinctions clearly in mind (and verce visa).

            Comment


              The current polling is grim reading for remain. I haven't seen Labour over 25 or the Tories under 36. Most polling showing the Tories at ~40.

              They need Johnson to blow up.
              Please support Milford Hospice. Click here to donate.

              Comment


                The only positive outcome of this election will be that one of Johnson or Corbyn will resign at the end of it. What chance the Brits could get rid of both of them in one election?

                Comment


                  Originally posted by Yatenga View Post
                  The only positive outcome of this election will be that one of Johnson or Corbyn will resign at the end of it. What chance the Brits could get rid of both of them in one election?

                  I don't think Corbyn is the most competent man I've ever met, but the idea that there's no discernible difference between him and the flagrantly dishonest, incompetent and corrupt Johnson is baffling to me.



                  All I'm really confident of is that we haven't yet seen the story that will decide this election. There's a lot bubbling away, but to recap the current runners and riders:

                  - Vote Leave, and by association Johnson, Gove and Cummings, have been referred to the Crown Prosecution Service by the Met Police with a view to bringing criminal charges for breaches in electoral law.

                  - Ian Lucas, Labour MP who sits on the DCMS committee, says that he has seen written evidence that Johnson and Gove knew of the overspend, and that Cummings said so.

                  - Dominic Grieve, who Chairs the Cross Party Intelligence and Security Committee, has accused Johnson of deliberately witholding publication of the committee's report on Russian interference in UK elections, including influence on the EU referendum and large scale donations to the Conservative Party.

                  - The Sunday Times is running a story today regarding Cumming's activities in Russia in the 90's. A whistleblower approached the Labour front bench who have formally asked for disclosure of Cumming's level of security vetting.

                  - Tom Watson has described DCMS's report that found the award of 100k of public money to Jennifer Arcuri's company while Johnson was sleeping with her a "whitewash" and seems to be going after it.



                  It's hard to avoid the sense that Johnson is up to his eyes in all sorts of ****e. This is a man who, famously, has failed in interviews to confirm how many children he has fathered.

                  The polls are all well and good, but wherever it comes from I'll be genuinely surprised if this election isn't heavily influenced by some sort of scandal.

                  "We will not walk in fear, one of another. We will not be driven into an age of unreason if we dig deep into our history and remember we are not descended from fearful men" Edward R Murrow

                  "Little by little, we have been brought into the present condition in which we are able neither to tolerate the evils from which we suffer, nor the remedies we need to cure them." - Livy


                  "I think that progress has been made by two flames that have always been burning in the human heart. The flame of anger against injustice and the flame of hope that you can build a better world" - Tony Benn

                  Comment




                    Just a slight further note on how far through the looking glass UK politics now is.

                    Last week, the President of the United States appeared on a radio phone in show hosted by a leader of one of the parties competing in this election, offered his endorsement to Johnson as his favoured candidate and gave public support to the idea of an electoral pact between the Conservative Party and the Brexit party, while giving warnings of what a "bad place" Labour would take the country to.

                    No one really thought that this was an unusual thing.
                    "We will not walk in fear, one of another. We will not be driven into an age of unreason if we dig deep into our history and remember we are not descended from fearful men" Edward R Murrow

                    "Little by little, we have been brought into the present condition in which we are able neither to tolerate the evils from which we suffer, nor the remedies we need to cure them." - Livy


                    "I think that progress has been made by two flames that have always been burning in the human heart. The flame of anger against injustice and the flame of hope that you can build a better world" - Tony Benn

                    Comment


                      Originally posted by Balla Boy View Post

                      Just a slight further note on how far through the looking glass UK politics now is.

                      Last week, the President of the United States appeared on a radio phone in show hosted by a leader of one of the parties competing in this election, offered his endorsement to Johnson as his favoured candidate and gave public support to the idea of an electoral pact between the Conservative Party and the Brexit party, while giving warnings of what a "bad place" Labour would take the country to.

                      No one really thought that this was an unusual thing.
                      I saw a lot on social media criticising this, with particular reference to what Farage said when Obama spoke about Brexit (a far lighter intervention). Although - far less than there should have been in the mainstream media.

                      But the US has form for many decades in intervening in elections - usually in Soith American jurisdictions. I think this shows how far the U.K. has fallen.

                      Comment


                        Getting endorsed by Trump is the political equivalent breaking of breaking the mirror after tripping over a black cat while being being attacked by an albatross.

                        Comment


                          Saw Johnson on Sophie Ridge this morning and he was barely coherent.
                          Munster – Champions of Europe 2006, 2008, 2020.

                          Comment


                            Originally posted by Balla Boy View Post


                            I don't think Corbyn is the most competent man I've ever met, but the idea that there's no discernible difference between him and the flagrantly dishonest, incompetent and corrupt Johnson is baffling to me.



                            All I'm really confident of is that we haven't yet seen the story that will decide this election. There's a lot bubbling away, but to recap the current runners and riders:

                            - Vote Leave, and by association Johnson, Gove and Cummings, have been referred to the Crown Prosecution Service by the Met Police with a view to bringing criminal charges for breaches in electoral law.

                            - Ian Lucas, Labour MP who sits on the DCMS committee, says that he has seen written evidence that Johnson and Gove knew of the overspend, and that Cummings said so.

                            - Dominic Grieve, who Chairs the Cross Party Intelligence and Security Committee, has accused Johnson of deliberately witholding publication of the committee's report on Russian interference in UK elections, including influence on the EU referendum and large scale donations to the Conservative Party.

                            - The Sunday Times is running a story today regarding Cumming's activities in Russia in the 90's. A whistleblower approached the Labour front bench who have formally asked for disclosure of Cumming's level of security vetting.

                            - Tom Watson has described DCMS's report that found the award of 100k of public money to Jennifer Arcuri's company while Johnson was sleeping with her a "whitewash" and seems to be going after it.



                            It's hard to avoid the sense that Johnson is up to his eyes in all sorts of ****e. This is a man who, famously, has failed in interviews to confirm how many children he has fathered.

                            The polls are all well and good, but wherever it comes from I'll be genuinely surprised if this election isn't heavily influenced by some sort of scandal.
                            Since he's been PM, we've had the Arcuri scandal, parliament being prologued, that being ruled illegal, their die in a ditch date of October 31st coming and going.

                            Despite all that, the Tory polling has remained solid, in fact increasing a few % points.

                            I genuinely don't think there is a scandal big enough to take these ****ers down.
                            Please support Milford Hospice. Click here to donate.

                            Comment


                              When Corbyn is the alternative, the Conservatives could be led by the Stay Puft Marshmellow Man and still comfortably beat Labour.

                              Comment


                                Originally posted by Viigand View Post
                                When Corbyn is the alternative, the Conservatives could be led by the Stay Puft Marshmellow Man and still comfortably beat Labour.
                                Like Theresa May didn’t? The Tories are only the incumbent because they bought DUP support.

                                Labour gained 6 points in 2 days in the last Yougov polling
                                i suspect you’re letting your preferences obscure your analysis.
                                "We will not walk in fear, one of another. We will not be driven into an age of unreason if we dig deep into our history and remember we are not descended from fearful men" Edward R Murrow

                                "Little by little, we have been brought into the present condition in which we are able neither to tolerate the evils from which we suffer, nor the remedies we need to cure them." - Livy


                                "I think that progress has been made by two flames that have always been burning in the human heart. The flame of anger against injustice and the flame of hope that you can build a better world" - Tony Benn

                                Comment

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