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Brexit referendum and negotiations 2016-19

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    If Labour more or less bury their useless Brexit policy, and if Johnson becomes "the Brexit Guy", then the utter boredom of the British public with all things Brexit may play nicely for Corbyn.

    But if this becomes a Brexit election, Labour are in big trouble.

    Comment


      Polls are fun but everyone knows that there is only one poll that actually counts. So it is interesting to see what that last few real polls say.

      In 2015 Cameron promises a referendum that he didn't expect to have to deliver in order to hold off the UKIP surge. In the actual election UKIP still took 3.8 million votes (12.6% of total vote). This was only a very small fall from the 4.3 million (26%) UKIP got in the 2014 EuroParl election, putting paid to the notion that EuroParl protest votes don't follow on in a general election. Despite this loss of votes to the right the Conservatives were helped to an overall majority by the total collapse of the Lib Dem vote ( down to 2.4 million in 2015 GE compared to 6.8 million in 2010. The lesson: Cameron and Crosby should have looked more that the 1.1 million that the LDs got in 2014 euros as a guide as much as they panicked about the 4.3 million for UKIP.

      In 2017 the LDs remained toxic, the Tories recovered seats in Scotland under Davidson, the UKIP vote collapsed due to Bexit being viewed as "done" posts A50 triggering and the Tories were united behind a single policy on Brexit - negotiate hard, deliver Brexit. They gained votes; up from 11.3 in 2015 to 13.6 in 2017 but lost their majority because Labour grew even more (9.3m in 2015 to 12.8 m in 2017).

      In 2019 Euro elections the Brexit Party (5.2 million), LDs (3.3 million) and Greens (1.8 million) surged at the expense of the big 2.

      What does all this mean for a December election?
      • LDs are recovering from 2014 but are still not as popular as they were in 2010. They are most likely to take Tory seats in the South of England and possibly some in Scotland and Wales if PC/Greens step aside.
      • The Brexit Party can do much much better than UKIP did in 2015. Getting over 4 million votes will have a major impact on seats in the north and midlands, it is hard to tell how much this will hit Labour also but my guess is that while Brexit Party may even win a couple of seats in hard leave areas that the increase in their vote will on balance help Labour to defend many seats, especially if the LibDems stand candidates down or don't back them in those seats with a remain backing Labour candidate.
      • Labour vote in London and some midlands cities could also be hit by a shift to the Greens and this can deliver seats to the Tories in Lab-Con marginals.
      All in all the election will be determined as much by the strategies of Brexit, LibDem and Greens as they are by how much the core vote holds up for Con or Lab (obviously a total collapse in one of the core votes as we saw in the Euro elections would override any other swings).

      Comment


        Great stuff AfH.

        I was considering creating a separate General Election thread but realistically this campaign will be fought almost entirely on Brexit, which is a shame because the Labour manifesto could really turn that country around. Corbyn will push hard to get their broader agenda into the minds of voters but it will be a struggle, people will concentrate on Brexit first. Labour will really have to hope the "renegoiate a deal then put it to the people" approach resonates, if that is indeed what their approach will be. It makes sense if that is the way the party goes but they need to be united on it and not get caught up in that "campaign for remain, #FBPE" crap.
        "It’s not the team you support, it’s the club you should support. The team on the pitch will ebb and flow because that’s the nature of sport. No team has ever been successful decade on decade. The club has the history and that’s the passion you should have."

        Comment


          The 'Monster Raving Loony Party' is the only sensible outfit left

          Comment



            The job of the remain campaign is now to facilitate a weight of tactical voting on an "anything but Tory" platform. I suspect we'll see the LDs true colours though - they'll attack Labour for electoral advantage even as it facilitates a Tory govt and a no deal Brexit.

            There's some risk that the "get it done" message gets traction with voters who aren't really aware of what happens next, but in theory Labour's position of a 2nd referendum on a renegotiated deal with Remain on the ballot is the sole route for any voter who wants their vote to facilitate remain.

            Anything can happen from here though. I fully believe that Johnson will prove to be a liability in the context of a GE campaign. He can't stand to the scrutiny, imo.

            And there are some really interesting political anorak questions that could have a real impact. How will the December vote impact the vote in University towns where students are registered but won't be there?

            Where will Farage deploy the Brexit Party? I suspect he'd happily weaken his 'great cause" to grab a few Westminster seats.

            Will the LDs stand aside anywhere? Maybe Brighton and Bristol for the Greens?

            Johnson is the great imponderable for me though. He's clearly a buffoon. The idea that some genius like engine lurked under all the flummery has been thoroughly exposed. But in an age of populist politics all he needs to do is make a cohesive bloc of the Brexit vote.

            A lot will be decided by the media. Will the stories about public money and blondes in love nests go away? Will anyone pin him on the money wasted on his preposterous Garden Bridge project? On his failings as Foreign Secretary? On his broken promises to date?

            I've seen him rattled. And it isn't impressive. I've just not got any great faith that the British Press has the will to rattle him.
            "We will not walk in fear, one of another. We will not be driven into an age of unreason if we dig deep into our history and remember we are not descended from fearful men" Edward R Murrow

            "Little by little, we have been brought into the present condition in which we are able neither to tolerate the evils from which we suffer, nor the remedies we need to cure them." - Livy


            "I think that progress has been made by two flames that have always been burning in the human heart. The flame of anger against injustice and the flame of hope that you can build a better world" - Tony Benn

            Comment


              Originally posted by RED 49 View Post
              I wouldnt rule out labour doing better than expected.
              Tories will pitch is as a Brexit vote but Corbyn has plenty areas to attack too.
              NHS, fair living wage, workers rights , for the many not the few was a good slogan last time out and he only has to point to the erg and also to all the economic forecasts that have said that johnsons deal will be an economic disaster for UK.
              Corbyn though and labour in general will need to be crystal clear on what they want from any potential deal that they may negotiate if they got into power and if they would put it back to the people .
              And that's very dangerous territory. Defining what they see as a "good Brexit" in terms of renegotiation is very hard to do while courting remain votes.

              At the very least they're going to have to decide whether they would agree to Common Market membership.
              "We will not walk in fear, one of another. We will not be driven into an age of unreason if we dig deep into our history and remember we are not descended from fearful men" Edward R Murrow

              "Little by little, we have been brought into the present condition in which we are able neither to tolerate the evils from which we suffer, nor the remedies we need to cure them." - Livy


              "I think that progress has been made by two flames that have always been burning in the human heart. The flame of anger against injustice and the flame of hope that you can build a better world" - Tony Benn

              Comment


                Originally posted by Balla Boy View Post
                Labour's position of a 2nd referendum on a renegotiated deal with Remain on the ballot is the sole route for any voter who wants their vote to facilitate remain.
                I would prefer to see Corbyn in No. 10 than Swinson (I'd prefer Starmer to either of them and actually could live with McDonnell as a necessary antidote to a decade of austerity), but to give a blanket statement that voting Labour is the best for remain in the context of a long post on tactical voting is nonsense.

                In many constituencies voting PC, SNP, or LD is a far better use of a vote if you want to stop Brexit. In fact given the FPTP post system if somebody's life mission is to stop brexit then in certain very specific constituencies then the best option would be knocking on doors for the Brexit Party is targeted parts of town.

                Originally posted by Balla Boy View Post
                Where will Farage deploy the Brexit Party? I suspect he'd happily weaken his 'great cause" to grab a few Westminster seats.
                .......

                A lot will be decided by the media.
                By instinct I'd agree 100% about Farage but I've been thinking that he has been very quiet in the past 2 weeks so I had a look at the BP twitter feed and they are pumping out anti Boris deal announcements, so either the media are choosing not to pick it up or Farage is not pushing hard to be heard. I'm not naturally a conspiracy theorist but the lack of media profile for Farage in the run up to this deadline is a marked contrast to his profile in February/March.

                Comment


                  Originally posted by AwayFromHome View Post

                  I would prefer to see Corbyn in No. 10 than Swinson (I'd prefer Starmer to either of them and actually could live with McDonnell as a necessary antidote to a decade of austerity), but to give a blanket statement that voting Labour is the best for remain in the context of a long post on tactical voting is nonsense.

                  In many constituencies voting PC, SNP, or LD is a far better use of a vote if you want to stop Brexit. In fact given the FPTP post system if somebody's life mission is to stop brexit then in certain very specific constituencies then the best option would be knocking on doors for the Brexit Party is targeted parts of town.



                  By instinct I'd agree 100% about Farage but I've been thinking that he has been very quiet in the past 2 weeks so I had a look at the BP twitter feed and they are pumping out anti Boris deal announcements, so either the media are choosing not to pick it up or Farage is not pushing hard to be heard. I'm not naturally a conspiracy theorist but the lack of media profile for Farage in the run up to this deadline is a marked contrast to his profile in February/March.


                  Fair point. I should more accurately have said "a vote that facilitates a Labour led Govt".

                  Any remain voter in a seat that Labour have a good chance of winning should be voting remain.

                  Any remainer in a seat they're unlikely to win should vote for the party most likely to beat the Tories.


                  I'm genuinely worried by the obtuseness of the "Labour isn't a real remain party" noises coming out of some remain types, calling now for ideological purity rather than a practical route to a second referendum.
                  "We will not walk in fear, one of another. We will not be driven into an age of unreason if we dig deep into our history and remember we are not descended from fearful men" Edward R Murrow

                  "Little by little, we have been brought into the present condition in which we are able neither to tolerate the evils from which we suffer, nor the remedies we need to cure them." - Livy


                  "I think that progress has been made by two flames that have always been burning in the human heart. The flame of anger against injustice and the flame of hope that you can build a better world" - Tony Benn

                  Comment


                    Originally posted by Balla Boy View Post



                    Fair point. I should more accurately have said "a vote that facilitates a Labour led Govt".

                    Any remain voter in a seat that Labour have a good chance of winning should be voting remain.

                    Any remainer in a seat they're unlikely to win should vote for the party most likely to beat the Tories.


                    I'm genuinely worried by the obtuseness of the "Labour isn't a real remain party" noises coming out of some remain types, calling now for ideological purity rather than a practical route to a second referendum.
                    Most of that is Westminister/anorak bubble talk in reality. Very few people will be swayed by it in the ballot box. Swinson needs to keep her profile up in the next two weeks to avoid irrelevance. Media bookers and headline writers will love to see her attack Corbyn so it will continue for a short while. I hope she stays on the "we are better" side of the line than slipping over into "they are awful". Its also worth noting that Labour haven't helped by saying a vote for LD is a vote for another austerity coalition - you can't expect Swinson not to hit back at that.

                    BBC had 3 first time candidates being interviewed on Parliament Sq last night and the LD was far more vicious to Labour than vice versa. I genuinely don't think that this is a good look.

                    My biggest worry is the current LD polling high among 18-34 year olds (22% in this group against 17% overall). That cohort is more likely to vote by principle than tactically (which benefited Corbyn in 2017 and Labour are polling at 43% for this group still). If that 22% for LD holds it will impact some urban constituencies and at a guess this is more likely to hurt Labour than LDs

                    Comment


                      Thanks for the figures above AfH, makes sober reading.

                      Digging a bit further, I can see that based on 650 seats elected in 2017, only about 110 have a margin of 10% or less between 1st and 2nd.

                      I'm already seeing remain v remain candidates coming out - Sam Gyimah is standing for the LDs in Kensington, against a remain Labour incumbent who has a majority of 30. The LDs are also putting a strong candidate up in Uxbridge and South Ruislip (Johnsons constituency) against a Labour candidate who has a real chance of unseating Johnson. Absolute madness.

                      Meanwhile there are reports that the Brexit Party will enter into a pact with the Tories not to run a candidate in places where they haven't a hope, and the Tories will do the same in marginal northern English constituencies.

                      Remain / people vote just cannot get their **** together, and unless Johnson blows up - which is a possibility - I can't see anything other than a large Tory majority.
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                      Comment


                        Originally posted by fitzy73 View Post
                        Thanks for the figures above AfH, makes sober reading.

                        Digging a bit further, I can see that based on 650 seats elected in 2017, only about 110 have a margin of 10% or less between 1st and 2nd.

                        I'm already seeing remain v remain candidates coming out - Sam Gyimah is standing for the LDs in Kensington, against a remain Labour incumbent who has a majority of 30. The LDs are also putting a strong candidate up in Uxbridge and South Ruislip (Johnsons constituency) against a Labour candidate who has a real chance of unseating Johnson. Absolute madness.

                        Meanwhile there are reports that the Brexit Party will enter into a pact with the Tories not to run a candidate in places where they haven't a hope, and the Tories will do the same in marginal northern English constituencies.

                        Remain / people vote just cannot get their **** together, and unless Johnson blows up - which is a possibility - I can't see anything other than a large Tory majority.
                        You may well be right, but then again you also accepted the received wisdom that Dominic Cummings was a cross between Svengali and Rasputin with the forensic mind of Niels Bohr so there's always that....

                        But seriously, the early signals do start to give me the same worries as you and Balla. What is worse is that it may even be a Tory majority without much of a One Nation rump to counterbalance the loonies. I'd be tempted to laugh if I didn't have family in the country.

                        Comment


                          Originally posted by fitzy73 View Post
                          Thanks for the figures above AfH, makes sober reading.

                          Digging a bit further, I can see that based on 650 seats elected in 2017, only about 110 have a margin of 10% or less between 1st and 2nd.

                          I'm already seeing remain v remain candidates coming out - Sam Gyimah is standing for the LDs in Kensington, against a remain Labour incumbent who has a majority of 30. The LDs are also putting a strong candidate up in Uxbridge and South Ruislip (Johnsons constituency) against a Labour candidate who has a real chance of unseating Johnson. Absolute madness.

                          Meanwhile there are reports that the Brexit Party will enter into a pact with the Tories not to run a candidate in places where they haven't a hope, and the Tories will do the same in marginal northern English constituencies.

                          Remain / people vote just cannot get their **** together, and unless Johnson blows up - which is a possibility - I can't see anything other than a large Tory majority.
                          "Never trust a Liberal" - Balla Boy, May 2010.
                          "It’s not the team you support, it’s the club you should support. The team on the pitch will ebb and flow because that’s the nature of sport. No team has ever been successful decade on decade. The club has the history and that’s the passion you should have."

                          Comment


                            Originally posted by AwayFromHome View Post

                            You may well be right, but then again you also accepted the received wisdom that Dominic Cummings was a cross between Svengali and Rasputin with the forensic mind of Niels Bohr so there's always that....

                            .
                            Cummings was twarted not by parliament, but by a cohort of people lead by Jolyon Maugham.

                            Prologuing parliament was a genius idea!






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                              Is it over yet?
                              I am the million man.

                              Comment


                                Originally posted by Cowboy View Post
                                Is it over yet?
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