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Brexit referendum and negotiations 2016-19

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    Originally posted by Sulla View Post
    EU/Junker saying there will be no extension given, this is it This deal or No Deal
    So gaming this now.

    - This will be rejected by Parliament
    - Benn Act kicks in
    - Boris Forced by Parliament to ask for an extension
    - EU says 1 month extension but no renegotiation and only for an election - EU can do this as new Commission delayed for a month.
    - Boris then gets his fixed term majority (will Corbyn bite at this?) to go to the country based on his deal or no deal.
    - Corbyn runs on a confirmatory vote and further extension
    - Tories come back with a majority and a mandate for their deal/no deal - get Brexit done
    - deal passed by Parliament
    - UK leave at 11pm on 30 November

    Comment


      Originally posted by Sulla View Post
      EU/Junker saying there will be no extension given, this is it This deal or No Deal
      He didn't actually say that, plus it's his job to sell the deal. Also he doesn't actually decide whether an extension can be granted.

      I'm finding it hard to believe that there will be a majority for this deal. It'll require all the Tories who lost the whip, the ERG mob, the DUP and a good number of Labour MPs to vote through a deal that's worse (for the British) than the May deal.

      Equally the notion that a second referendum has enough traction is probably fantasy at this stage.

      ​​​​​​So, yet again, there is not a consensus for any way out of this mess. Groundhog Day, take 75.
      Last edited by fitzy73; 17th-October-2019, 18:20.
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      Comment


        Originally posted by redherring View Post

        Oh the irony that the DUP would use the GFA as leverage to veto the Brexit deal. It's a wonder any of them are married given all they know is No!
        Even better, Nigel Dodds saying a simple majority in Stormont on whether to keep the trading arrangements every 5yrs also goes against the GFA. The Unionists demand their undemocratic veto! Are they worried Unionists will no longer be near a majority again?
        Commemorate Nevin Spence here -
        http://www.mycharity.ie/event/munste..._nevin_spence/

        Comment


          Originally posted by Jackie Brown View Post

          Even better, Nigel Dodds saying a simple majority in Stormont on whether to keep the trading arrangements every 5yrs also goes against the GFA. The Unionists demand their undemocratic veto! Are they worried Unionists will no longer be near a majority again?
          I think they realise that many unionists will also vote to stay in the arrangement - and that is what worries them.

          Comment


            Originally posted by Sulla View Post
            EU/Junker saying there will be no extension given, this is it This deal or No Deal
            He has the better poker face and ultimately the better hand of cards imo

            He's just putting the wind up BoJo and his merry band of losers
            I am the million man.

            Comment


              Originally posted by Cowboy View Post
              He has the better poker face and ultimately the better hand of cards imo

              He's just putting the wind up BoJo and his merry band of losers
              Easy for JCJ to say that. The decision though lies with the 27MS. Plus JCJ is actually trying to help BJ get the deal.

              Comment


                Originally posted by The Last Stand View Post

                So gaming this now.

                - This will be rejected by Parliament
                - Benn Act kicks in
                - Boris Forced by Parliament to ask for an extension
                - EU says 1 month extension but no renegotiation and only for an election - EU can do this as new Commission delayed for a month.
                - Boris then gets his fixed term majority (will Corbyn bite at this?) to go to the country based on his deal or no deal.
                - Corbyn runs on a confirmatory vote and further extension
                - Tories come back with a majority and a mandate for their deal/no deal - get Brexit done
                - deal passed by Parliament
                - UK leave at 11pm on 30 November
                That was possibility 1.

                Possibility 2 is the deal passing and UK are gone on 31 October with the WA.

                Possibility 3 is that the deal does not pass and the extension is rejected - (perhaps other possibilities here but Bojo will try to avoid the legal route).

                Possibility 4 could be a vote for a confirmatory referendum on the BOJO deal. Could that get the required votes in parliament? Presumably a simple majority?

                Possibility 5 is a vote in Parliament to revoke Article 50. Unlikely with a pro Brexit PM and shadow PM.


                All in - this will run beyond the weekend I think.

                Comment


                  I've just looked at some indicative voting on Twitter which shows a result of 311 in favour and, unbelievably, 311 against.

                  It's much, much tighter than I thought. This abomination might actually pass.
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                  Comment


                    Originally posted by fitzy73 View Post
                    I've just looked at some indicative voting on Twitter which shows a result of 311 in favour and, unbelievably, 311 against.

                    It's much, much tighter than I thought. This abomination might actually pass.
                    Seemingly (source Mary Regan In Twitter)!it is ranging from a defeat by 3 votes to a win by 1. Labour rebels + Tory independents will be key.

                    Comment


                      Boris needs all the Tory rebels plus nearly all any Labour potential rebels. Can't see that happening. Extension coming.

                      Comment


                        For any DUP members who may log on here. What's different from May's Deal

                        https://www.theguardian.com/politics...l-actually-new
                        Nulla semper amicus, servivit mihi, in iniuriam mihi neminem quem non persolvi

                        Comment


                          Can't find where I was reading about it a few days ago, but THIS is what I was talking about in relation to a legal case being brought attempting to declare the deal unlawful.

                          Meanwhile, Scotland’s highest court is to hear a fresh challenge from anti-Brexit campaigners as they seek to have Johnson’s agreed deal with the EU declared unlawful, arguing that it contravenes legislation – originally amended by the Brexiter Jacob Rees-Mogg – that prevents Northern Ireland forming part of a separate customs territory.

                          Jolyon Maugham QC, the director of the Good Law Project, who has spearheaded a series of court challenges to the UK government over Brexit, is seeking an interdict from the court of session in Edinburgh that would in effect suspend the deal, which parliament is due to debate in a historic sitting on Saturday, as well as a court order to ensure that the full, final text is put before MPs if they do vote on the deal as planned.

                          Lawyers for Maugham will tell the court on Friday morning the deal contravenes section 55 of the Taxation (Cross-border Trade) Act 2018, which states that it is “unlawful for Her Majesty’s government to enter into arrangements under which Northern Ireland forms part of a separate customs territory to Great Britain”.

                          Lord Pentland will hear the case. Maugham’s legal team insist that section 55 is “crystal clear” and that any form of differentiated deal for Northern Ireland will contravene it.

                          On Twitter, Maugham confirmed that he would ask the inner house of the court on Monday to order the prime minister to apply for an extension to article 50 until 31 January under the Benn Act, or send the letter itself.

                          Lord Carloway, Scotland’s most senior judge, has already cleared time for an emergency hearing at noon on Monday, as part of an earlier action by Maugham along with the Scottish National party MP Joanna Cherry and Dale Vince, the millionaire owner of the Ecotricity green energy company.

                          Maugham tweeted: “The prime minister’s desire to meet his short-term political objective of leaving on 31 October, after three and a half years, cannot trump the need for proper scrutiny of a 500+ page document with epochal consequences for Great Britain, Northern Ireland and the EU.”
                          Tis but a scratch.

                          Comment


                            Originally posted by mr chips View Post
                            Can't find where I was reading about it a few days ago, but THIS is what I was talking about in relation to a legal case being brought attempting to declare the deal unlawful.
                            I would be interested to see where this goes.

                            The U.K. Parliament voted to activate article 50 which put the 24 month timetable which has now been extended for a further 6 months. There has been debate after debate in Parliament on the May deal which is a very close cousin of the BOJO deal (marriage close in Royal family terms), and Parliament will have a say on any future relationship.

                            Comment


                              Whether Johnson wins or loses this vote seems irrelevant. Either way, he is likely to win the subsequent election. Looks like a huge victory for the ERG, who will get their hard Brexit in 2020, minus Northern Ireland.

                              Comment


                                I've heard Macron fell from his sit, Barnier emptied a bottle of single malt, Juncker wines in the EU parliament toilets, Tusk bought a house in the septentrional Siberia...
                                Told you: Till the game is not over, it's not over.
                                Last edited by JN.Allezdax.com; 19th-October-2019, 13:57.
                                The Scots (originally Irish, but by now Scotch) were at this time inhabiting Ireland, having driven the Irish (Picts) out of Scotland; while the Picts (originally Scots) were now Irish (living in brackets) and vice versa. It is essential to keep these distinctions clearly in mind (and verce visa).

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