Brexit referendum and negotiations 2016-19

[tippete7trees]

The difficult thing here is that no one can be sure that the UK govt is acting in good faith. Is it really seeking a deal? Is it really intending for that deal to pass through Parliament? Or is it maneuvering to get a General Election, or to find a loophole to bypass the Benn act?

The ERG, Bannonite aligned lunatics that have taken over the asylum are fundamentally bad faith actors, which makes what happens next difficult to fathom.

Some things we can be certain of:

The ERG types are ideologically committed to a No Deal exit, whatever they say.

Johnson is not committed to anything, and will do whatever he calculates is best for him.

Labour and the Lib Dems remain opposed to a Hard Brexit for the rest of the UK, as does the SNP, so simply removing the Irish border question will not bring them onside.


So the questions become:

Will the ERG throw the DUP under a bus to get no deal for GB? (Yes, basically).

Is that a choice they'll be given or will there be other issues for them with the Johnson deal?

Have Labour really (as reported) told Labour MPs that if they vote for Johnson's deal they'll be deselected?

And is all of this simply a ruse for Johnson to run down the clock somehow and skirt around the Benn act?



Twitter rumbling was that the ERG have been asked to wave this deal through, with assurances that doing so negates the Benn act restrictions (the Govt will have a deal and therefore not have to act for an extension) but that (somehow) the Govt won't implement it.


It's impossible to tell, because the Govt is made up of committed liars who would sell their Granny.

That is interesting meditation on potential scope for Tory mendacity.
A few things I imagine are likely. Strategy is to keep options open so any final result is beneficial.
My instinct is not to extrapolate too far in giving credit for cunning to hard right. More likely, given laughable delusions about non solidarity of EU and fairyland concept of Tir na Murphys, and like all far right endeavours, cunning on tactics, special needs on strategy.
Boris does want deal, simplest path to his main goal, power for him.
Absolute no compromise from EU (no deal for EU small problem compared to effect of throwing small country under bus + reward for rebel UK for trouble making. This force Boris in end to concede everything.
Now trying to wriggle solution to square DUP question.
I have zero fear of 'No Deal' Brexit 'cos forces aligned against it overwhelming and any Cumming/Bannon strokes will be out manoeuvred by hook or by crook.
Extension coming my guess.

[JN.Allezdax.com]

Mouahahahahaha!

https://www.theguardian.com/politics...al-by-saturday

I'd rather laugh in a twitch than asking him for a life insurance!!!

[tippete7trees]

It appears that the DUP have been made an offer they cannot refuse. Or accept.

[tippete7trees]

DUP says NO

[Sulla]

UK & EU agree to a Deal... again


Now for the House of Commons...

[Viigand]

He doesn’t have the votes to pass it.

[mr chips]

DUP still say their stance hasn't changed. Plus there is the interesting issue of the case Jolyon Maugham is taking tomorrow, arguing that the deal can't legally be approved by Westminster at this time. Plus Labour have said that any deal will have to be subject to a second referendum. There are a few twists and turns in this yet.

[Sulla]

He doesn’t have the votes to pass it.

Agree to an afirmatory referendum and he does

[JN.Allezdax.com]

The game is not over till it is not over...

Hard brexiteers (****rage just explained the deal is not a Brexit! hahaha) refuse any deal, DUP do not agree, LibDems are more determined than ever against it, Corbyn said this is even worse than May's and he wants anyway to make a new referendum o accept or refuse it...
Mates, let's be connected on next saturday for the saga of the decade, in Technicolor and Westminsterscope: Crookxit... The revenge of the return of the Brexiteers!

[The Last Stand]

It is interesting:

- if the deal passes the HOC on Saturday then both Labour and the Tories will both be seen as responsible for any bad outcomes. Passing will need ERG, plus some Labour plus also the non no deal MPs. DUP will be in a tight place.

- Labour now seem to be moving towards affirmation of the deal by referendum which means formal extension request needed. Will they get support for this?

- if HOC hits an impasse then presumably the game is up. EU will not want this to go on forever and therefore an extension is not guaranteed.

[AwayFromHome]

It is interesting:

- if the deal passes the HOC on Saturday then both Labour and the Tories will both be seen as responsible for any bad outcomes. Passing will need ERG, plus some Labour plus also the non no deal MPs. DUP will be a tight place.

- Labour now seem to be moving towards affirmation of the deal by referendum which means formal extension request needed. Will they get support for this?

- if HOC hits an impasse then presumably the game is up. EU will not want this to go on forever and therefore an extension is not guaranteed.

The same configuration that passed the Benn Act could probably pass an Act requiring the deal to be put to a confirmatory referendum in December or January with an exit date in February/March and revoking A50 in February/March as the alternative. (Tricky campaigning by Labour in north-east could have the catchy slogan NO DEAL - REVOKE BORIS' EU SELL OUT.).

Would be difficult for Boris to claim that no deal exit in October is somehow better than the deal he himself negotiated being put to the people and enacted a couple of months later.

[The Last Stand]

The DUP say a resounding NO. Seemingly efforts to keep an all island economy and prevent a hard border “drives coach and horses through the Belfast Agreement”.

[AwayFromHome]

The DUP say a resounding NO. Seemingly efforts to keep an all island economy and prevent a hard border “drives coach and horses through the Belfast Agreement”.

They are not wrong, just hypocrites - they had no difficulty in renewable heat power coach and horses through the GFA when it was going through the parts that they didn't like. No that its headed for the parts they do like they are up in arms. The fundamental problem (as all reasonable people said in 2016) was that Brexit drives the coach and horses through the GFA no matter how its done. And like all multilateral outcomes the GFA is a house of cards, touch one part and the whole thing comes tumbling down.

[redherring]

The DUP say a resounding NO. Seemingly efforts to keep an all island economy and prevent a hard border “drives coach and horses through the Belfast Agreement”.

Oh the irony that the DUP would use the GFA as leverage to veto the Brexit deal. It's a wonder any of them are married given all they know is No!

[Sulla]

EU/Junker saying there will be no extension given, this is it This deal or No Deal