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    Originally posted by tippete7trees View Post
    So Leo and Boris issue a statement that they see a pathway to agreement.
    So, let's get real here. (1) There's no possibility of Leo agreeing to any sort of hard border. (2) Unlikely Boris is looking at Corbyn's continued custom Union. So it can only mean NI in the custom's Union. Are the ERG ready for that now they see no Brexit is likely? 'Cos if means Arlene under the bus. Possibly a slight twist - the customs union can only end when Nationalists and Unionists agree on that. Ipso fatso SF have a veto.
    Theresa May for slow learners.
    Now is the time that the Irish diplomatic corps must be at their most vigilant imho.

    Historically, it's always been at this 11th hour when the Brits have thrown in some slightly innocuous looking condition or whatever, that causes absolute mayhem in later years e.g. temporary NI border, etc,etc,etc.

    I'm not a Brit basher per se, but I'm not blind to her bratish tendencies either. Beware Ireland , stay close to the EU 26 on all negotiations, would be my earnest counsel.

    Other than that, great to see some progress apparently being made, which I gather is basically NI staying in the customs union, well about bloody time hey!!!
    Last edited by Daithi; 11th-October-2019, 07:06.
    ____________________________________________
    Munster were great when they were Munster.

    alas they are just north munster now.......
    ____________________________________________

    Comment


      Originally posted by Daithi View Post

      Now is the time that the Irish diplomatic corps must be at their most vigilant imho.

      Historically, it's always been at this 11th hour when the Brits have thrown in some slightly innocuous looking condition or whatever, that causes absolute mayhem in later years e.g. temporary NI border, etc,etc,etc.

      I'm not a Brit basher per se, but I'm not blind to her bratish tendencies either. Beware Ireland , stay close to the EU 26 on all negotiations, would be my earnest counsel.

      Other than that, great to see some progress apparently being made, which I gather is basically NI staying in the customs union, well about bloody time hey!!!
      Not too worried about Leo. NI in customs union, both DUP and SF both must agree to exit. EU 26 will not allow any compromise on single market.
      Main problem will be ERG and DUP.
      DUP will be a wailing and gernashing of teeth. They'll never get out of customs union until sea change in political architecture. Tantrums a coming.

      Comment


        Originally posted by tippete7trees View Post
        So Leo and Boris issue a statement that they see a pathway to agreement.
        So, let's get real here. (1) There's no possibility of Leo agreeing to any sort of hard border. (2) Unlikely Boris is looking at Corbyn's continued custom Union. So it can only mean NI in the custom's Union. Are the ERG ready for that now they see no Brexit is likely? 'Cos if means Arlene under the bus. Possibly a slight twist - the customs union can only end when Nationalists and Unionists agree on that. Ipso fatso SF have a veto.
        Theresa May for slow learners.
        EU will certainly agree with NI in customs union.

        DUP will obviously throw the mother of all tantrums in public (if it actually went through though they'd probably hold their 30% of the vote and 10 seats in Westminister, an election before a deal risks them losing 4 seats to mix of UUP/Allianc/SF and SDLP in different constituencies).

        One Nation Tory rebels would probably back it just to be done with the whole thing.

        Getting it through the House of Commons would require all 40ish ERG and 20ish Labour for a Deal MP either abstaining or voting for.

        I think Boris has actually put himself in a good position for the election. If he gets a deal through he can double down on his message of ending austerity and romp home.
        If he doesn't get this deal through nobody can claim that he didn't try to and it will also be difficult to target him on the pro no-deal side ass he can blame the Benn Act. He wouldn't need to go hard on no-deal in an election and frighten the moderates because he can say back-me, back my deal that the EU have already agreed and the Commons in blocking. That is a major selling point in an electorate where a large number of floating voters want to be out of the EU with a deal.

        It will be interesting to read in future whether this was Cummings strategy or whether Frost took more control in the past week.

        Comment


          Originally posted by tippete7trees View Post
          If that's the Mail (and we understand if you won't admit you read it in a moment of weakness)..............the only surprise is the number of respondents blaming Varadkar isn't 100%.
          The Express is as bad.
          I must confess to looking st the Mail Online - my secret filthy habit. But it's like picking a scab.... I enjoy how the comments mention "Irish Teabag little Lenny Verrucca" in what passes for mature debate! It reminds me of the playground behaviour of some Northern politicians comments of the "curry my yoghurt" type

          Comment


            Oh and as for Leo; he can also play this as a major win and even if the HoC torpedoes a deal he will always be able to show the DUP where the Westminister establishment places the Union with Northern Ireland in their priorities.

            Comment


              Hard to see the DUP accepting this. By far the biggest trader with NI is the UK. There will be custom checks and probable regulatory issues if the UK is outside. Over times the NI economy will align more and more with the Republic. This scares the bejazis out if the Red Hand Comanches. The ERG might turn on Boris and he'd need the opposition to get the deal through. Corbyn wants the UK to remain in the customs union so why should be save Boris' neck? Tory splits will be blamed more than Corbyn.

              Comment


                https://youtu.be/ZVYqB0uTKlE
                ____________________________________________
                Munster were great when they were Munster.

                alas they are just north munster now.......
                ____________________________________________

                Comment


                  Meaningwhile........back in the Loony world championships.......it seems Boris' cunning plan was: no border on the island of Ireland but a nebulous unicorn border down the Irish Sea. With the UK gov to compensate NI businesses for any losses due to the new trading regimes.
                  Looka, this is looking in the wrong place for the wrong solution.
                  The real solution is: (1) An extension (2) An election (3) A 2nd referendum and Brexit cancelled.
                  P.S. Loyalists threatening to bomb Limerick. At last, says Tobyglen.

                  Comment


                    Originally posted by tippete7trees View Post
                    Meaningwhile........back in the Loony world championships.......it seems Boris' cunning plan was: no border on the island of Ireland but a nebulous unicorn border down the Irish Sea. With the UK gov to compensate NI businesses for any losses due to the new trading regimes.
                    Looka, this is looking in the wrong place for the wrong solution.
                    The real solution is: (1) An extension (2) An election (3) A 2nd referendum and Brexit cancelled.
                    P.S. Loyalists threatening to bomb Limerick. At last, says Tobyglen.
                    Interesting logic from the loyalists; UK votes to leave EU without any idea how to do this. Plan goes tits up. Let's bomb Limerick.

                    Comment


                      .....
                      Last edited by ustix; 14th-October-2019, 07:36.
                      Gwan Joe!!

                      Comment


                        Originally posted by Viigand View Post
                        As long as Corbyn stays as Labour leader, the Conservatives will win.
                        Saw this elsewhere, an unelected monarch that costs the taxpayer billions, opening parliament with a tory party election manifesto, on behalf of an unelected prime minister with no majority.
                        But yea lets depose corbyn...

                        Comment


                          Originally posted by desert man View Post

                          Interesting logic from the loyalists; UK votes to leave EU without any idea how to do this. Plan goes tits up. Let's bomb Limerick.
                          More anti-Cork bias
                          When things go wrong, blame McGahan

                          Comment


                            Looks like there's gonna be a Brexit deal.... well I'll be darned:
                            - may's deal
                            - custom's border down the Irish sea
                            - NI effectively staying in the customs union to be fully aligned with ROI
                            - NI backstop only

                            What's especially amazing about all of this is that it looks like Arlene & the joyfuls are going to go along with it!? Apparently as a result of this & a few labour supporters it will then be able to pass thru the HOC....

                            It's a bit (very) like Brexit for slow learners tbh....
                            Last edited by Daithi; 16th-October-2019, 11:36.
                            ____________________________________________
                            Munster were great when they were Munster.

                            alas they are just north munster now.......
                            ____________________________________________

                            Comment


                              They're tantalising us with hints of Boris making concessions and a deal being close but it might still be as 'impossible' as before re DUP opposition. Boris would happily throw Arlene under the bus but that seemingly would lose him the votes needed to get it through the HOC. If through legalese gymnastics NI stays in the UK customs area but regulation wise conforms to EU the customs regulations (with the U.K. Gov compensating businesses for additional costs) you still need thorough control of goods coming into NI (from the UK and further afield)along with certainty about its onward destination. How can you do that? How can you guarantee that UK cut price goods don't feed into cross border smuggling? Boris is desperate to get a deal and avoid an extension because an extension risks a transformation of the political landscape and no Brexit likely. Plus finish him off also. Will the ERG throw the DUP under the bus. Be interesting to see if they do but I'd bet against it.

                              Comment


                                The difficult thing here is that no one can be sure that the UK govt is acting in good faith. Is it really seeking a deal? Is it really intending for that deal to pass through Parliament? Or is it maneuvering to get a General Election, or to find a loophole to bypass the Benn act?

                                The ERG, Bannonite aligned lunatics that have taken over the asylum are fundamentally bad faith actors, which makes what happens next difficult to fathom.

                                Some things we can be certain of:

                                The ERG types are ideologically committed to a No Deal exit, whatever they say.

                                Johnson is not committed to anything, and will do whatever he calculates is best for him.

                                Labour and the Lib Dems remain opposed to a Hard Brexit for the rest of the UK, as does the SNP, so simply removing the Irish border question will not bring them onside.


                                So the questions become:

                                Will the ERG throw the DUP under a bus to get no deal for GB? (Yes, basically).

                                Is that a choice they'll be given or will there be other issues for them with the Johnson deal?

                                Have Labour really (as reported) told Labour MPs that if they vote for Johnson's deal they'll be deselected?

                                And is all of this simply a ruse for Johnson to run down the clock somehow and skirt around the Benn act?



                                Twitter rumbling was that the ERG have been asked to wave this deal through, with assurances that doing so negates the Benn act restrictions (the Govt will have a deal and therefore not have to act for an extension) but that (somehow) the Govt won't implement it.


                                It's impossible to tell, because the Govt is made up of committed liars who would sell their Granny.
                                "We will not walk in fear, one of another. We will not be driven into an age of unreason if we dig deep into our history and remember we are not descended from fearful men" Edward R Murrow

                                "Little by little, we have been brought into the present condition in which we are able neither to tolerate the evils from which we suffer, nor the remedies we need to cure them." - Livy


                                "I think that progress has been made by two flames that have always been burning in the human heart. The flame of anger against injustice and the flame of hope that you can build a better world" - Tony Benn

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