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Brexit referendum and negotiations 2016-19

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    You'd have to be legally blind not to see that the original backstop is Doris' only hope of a deal. Throwing Marlene, Tammy et al under the bus will put rocket fuel into a Scottish referendum. It's not clear that will shimmy through the House of Commons, it will throw centuries of the U.K. Status quo into serious uncertainty. The fractured state of MPs voting intentions makes the outcome dubious. You can't really poll MPs attitude to throwing the DUPEs under the bus because it would be too sensitive. What's missing from the calculus of posters here is appreciating the delusions of ERGistas that the EU will cave if a 'no deal' looks likely. This shambles is not some 4D chess game. They're thick, the ERGs. Extension is what's coming. Take it or leave it

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      Originally posted by RED 49 View Post

      This is the end game I have been predicting for some time.
      Johnson wants to be the man to deliver Brexit and doing so with a deal is much more favourable.
      Like all deals though the devil will be in the detail ,NI staying in the CM and the SM is not what the DUP want but if he can swing the votes watch Johnson throw them under his English bus.
      The detail will start on the 1st November once article 50 is up and the UK is out. There is no point in an extension for the EU because the polls indicate that they would then be dealing, post GE, with a Johnson government with a majority. If the Labour leader was remotely credible they might offer the extension but he isn’t, they know it, everyone knows it but Corbyn is too stupid/ arrogant to realise that a strategically shaved monkey in a suit would be more popular than him. There will be a deal agreed at the 11th hour.

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        Originally posted by the plastic paddy View Post

        The detail will start on the 1st November once article 50 is up and the UK is out. There is no point in an extension for the EU because the polls indicate that they would then be dealing, post GE, with a Johnson government with a majority. If the Labour leader was remotely credible they might offer the extension but he isn’t, they know it, everyone knows it but Corbyn is too stupid/ arrogant to realise that a strategically shaved monkey in a suit would be more popular than him. There will be a deal agreed at the 11th hour.
        Sorry PP this is nonsense the EU is already discussing the extension and it looks like it will be 6 months.

        They are expecting an extension request, have no serious problem with it and the consensus is 6 months will give a new gov times to settle in. It's no good just making things up in your head you need to keep abreast of real developments. Somebody has spooked you about Corbyn who's a sort of Satanic figure in your mind, most of that is right wing spin, he's not THAT feared. The City of London think he'd be better than a 'no deal' exit.


        Last edited by tippete7trees; 3rd-October-2019, 16:06.

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          Originally posted by tippete7trees View Post

          Sorry PP this is nonsense the EU is already discussing the extension and it looks like it will be 6 months.

          They are expecting an extension request, have no serious problem with it and the consensus is 6 months will give a new gov times to settle in. It's no good just making things up in your head you need to keep abreast of real developments. Somebody has spooked you about Corbyn who's a sort of Satanic figure in your mind, most of that is right wing spin, he's not THAT feared. The City of London think he'd be better than a 'no deal' exit.

          It isn’t a question of being spooked by Corbyn, he is unelectable unless the UK is literally in a bread line, which it isn’t. I am relaying how he is perceived by the population as a whole. Labour are 12 points behind this shambolic Tory non government in the polls. And any extension forced on Johnson will increase his popularity and increase support for Leave. I don’t think there is an appreciation of quite how angry the UK population is. I know they were deluded right from the start because it was never going to be possible for the whole of the UK and NI to leave the CU and SM without crashing out in a No Deal scenario, but they aren’t blaming Boris, they are blaming the “Remoaners” and the EU. It doesn’t matter how long the extension is, it will be contingent on a GE and I strongly predict, as do the polls that Boris and his reactionaries will win a majority. When they do they will take the UK out, Deal or No Deal.

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            Polls are unreliable for a variety of reasons. One of the things that's happening is people are venting their current feelings to pollsters which is skewing the numbers and when the election comes many will vote on a different criteria (often related to what's good for them). Some pollsters have given up, worried their credibility will be thrashed and others are changing their methods to focus on who is LIKELY to actually vote and who they voted for in the past. I suspect most of the anger in the election will be focused on the Tory party who are the architects and drivers of Brexit and their inability to unify themselves, making the UK look like circus clown act this type of weakness usually ends in a real spanking in an election. Most of the Tories can be quite into that sort of thing but they won't really enjoy it this time.

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              PP You keep saying a deal will be agreed, but how?

              As outlined above, the only chance of a deal before October 31st is for NI to stay in the SM and CU. Strategically it would be near impossible for the ERG to dump the DUP, and the political fallout will be massive. Plus anything that separates the DUP from the "mainland" will see riots on the streets of Belfast within minutes.

              From the EU side, nothing less than NI being in the CU and SM will be rejected by Brussels.

              If I were a betting man, I'd have a few bob in the EU giving the UK a 2 year extension to go and have a long, hard look at themselves.

              Edit

              Also consistent polling for the last 6 months has shown remain getting 55 - 60%. The "remoaners" are the majority..The FPTP electoral system can give the Tories a majority in parliament though.
              Last edited by fitzy73; 3rd-October-2019, 16:56.
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              Comment


                Originally posted by fitzy73 View Post
                PP You keep saying a deal will be agreed, but how?

                As outlined above, the only chance of a deal before October 31st is for NI to stay in the SM and CU. Strategically it would be near impossible for the ERG to dump the DUP, and the political fallout will be massive. Plus anything that separates the DUP from the "mainland" will see riots on the streets of Belfast within minutes.

                From the EU side, nothing less than NI being in the CU and SM will be rejected by Brussels.

                If I were a betting man, I'd have a few bob in the EU giving the UK a 2 year extension to go and have a long, hard look at themselves.

                Edit

                Also consistent polling for the last 6 months has shown remain getting 55 - 60%. The "remoaners" are the majority..The FPTP electoral system can give the Tories a majority in parliament though.
                Those polls are credible, the ones showing the Tories miles ahead aren’t.... The reason why a GE has been rejected, twice, by Parliament is because Turkeys don’t vote for Christmas and MPs know that the FPTP vote extrapolates in favour of Brexit. Also worth bearing in mind that the pre 2016 vote polls showed a similar support for Remain. I think Leave would win again in the unlikely event there is another referendum.
                Last edited by the plastic paddy; 3rd-October-2019, 17:25.

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                  Originally posted by the plastic paddy View Post

                  Those polls are credible, the ones showing the Tories miles ahead aren’t.... The reason why a GE has been rejected, twice, by Parliament is because Turkeys don’t vote for Christmas and MPs know that the FPTP vote extrapolates in favour of Brexit. Also worth bearing in mind that the pre 2016 vote polls showed a similar support for Remain. I think Leave would win again in the unlikely event there is another referendum.
                  If the reason an election was rejected twice was fear of a Brexit win, why is the opposition going for an election as soon as the extension is certain?

                  Comment


                    Originally posted by tippete7trees View Post
                    Polls are unreliable for a variety of reasons. One of the things that's happening is people are venting their current feelings to pollsters which is skewing the numbers and when the election comes many will vote on a different criteria (often related to what's good for them). Some pollsters have given up, worried their credibility will be thrashed and others are changing their methods to focus on who is LIKELY to actually vote and who they voted for in the past. I suspect most of the anger in the election will be focused on the Tory party who are the architects and drivers of Brexit and their inability to unify themselves, making the UK look like circus clown act this type of weakness usually ends in a real spanking in an election. Most of the Tories can be quite into that sort of thing but they won't really enjoy it this time.
                    As the northern working class fella painting my windows observed yesterday about Corbyn, “he is never going to get in, he refuses to sing the National anthem”. Doesn’t worry me but that is a ludicrous position for a politician. People voted for him last time because they wanted to clip May’s wings and they could vote for Corbyn safe in the knowledge he wouldn’t get in, that he got close means they won’t make the same mistake again. Remainers will flock to the Lib Dem’s and Greens Leavers will flock to Johnson, deserting Farage in the process. But, as I say, I don’t think we will see a GE for a while because I think there will be a deal done and the UK will “Leave” before the RWC is up.

                    Comment


                      Originally posted by tippete7trees View Post

                      If the reason an election was rejected twice was fear of a Brexit win, why is the opposition going for an election as soon as the extension is certain?
                      Because that is the only means of creating a coalition to stop a No Deal, but I will believe it when I see it. Corbyn won’t agree to anyone but him as leader, safe in the knowledge the MPs won’t vote for it and he will get the No Deal he wants.
                      Last edited by the plastic paddy; 3rd-October-2019, 17:55.

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                        Sorry PP, the idea that Corbyn wants 'no deal' is, let's be blunt, delusional.

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                          Interesting that the PSNI have said they will have no part of policing any border infrastructure. Very unusual to make an intervention which could be seen as so overtly political, but entirely understandable.
                          Tis but a scratch.

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                            Doris is stupid. Trump has got away with murder because he's enabled by a deranged Republican Party. Luckily for the Brits their legislators are largely sane. So Trump style tactics won't work for Doris. It seems he trying to foster uncertainty and keep the issue open until the last minutes - the EU will cave, and if they don't it might well be that they think they have a device to make no deal unstoppable, his 2nd choice if he can't get the deal he wants.
                            That wont happen because the opposition are alert to that and intend to enforce the extension well before the 31st. They have a few possibilities. Doris will be the biggest personal loser in this in the end.

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                              Originally posted by tippete7trees View Post
                              Doris is stupid. Trump has got away with murder because he's enabled by a deranged Republican Party. Luckily for the Brits their legislators are largely sane. So Trump style tactics won't work for Doris. It seems he trying to foster uncertainty and keep the issue open until the last minutes - the EU will cave, and if they don't it might well be that they think they have a device to make no deal unstoppable, his 2nd choice if he can't get the deal he wants.
                              That wont happen because the opposition are alert to that and intend to enforce the extension well before the 31st. They have a few possibilities. Doris will be the biggest personal loser in this in the end.
                              Johnson is many things: idle, vain, self centred, arrogant, narcissistic, the list is endless, one thing he most certainly isn’t is stupid. And neither is Cummings. Corbyn is now saying he won’t do anything until after the summit, that is very ticklish, especially when it involves a piece of legislation that has never been used, the fixed term Parliament act. And as for Corbyn, he is the only leader in this whole debacle who has always been unequivocally opposed to the UK being in the EU. He is principled enough to not sing the National anthem but his principles don’t extend to his beliefs on the UK’s membership of the EU? Pull the the other one...

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                                Originally posted by mr chips View Post
                                Interesting that the PSNI have said they will have no part of policing any border infrastructure. Very unusual to make an intervention which could be seen as so overtly political, but entirely understandable.
                                Will they police NI to UK border infrastructure if the customs border ends up in the Irish Sea?

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