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Brexit referendum and negotiations 2016-19

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    Originally posted by aupa les rouges View Post

    The real Portugal Mark 2 deserves a lot of respect. Doing okay thank you.
    GUARDIAN:
    https://www.theguardian.com/business...rash-austerity


    Portugal


    Lisbon followed the post-crash route charted by the UK and Ireland of punishing austerity before voters in 2015 ditched the rightwing government led by Pedro Passos Coelho in favour of the socialist leader António Costa. Since then, austerity has eased, consumer and business confidence has recovered and GDP growth has stayed above 2%. Portuguese prime minister Antonio Costa with Angela Merkel

    Portuguese prime minister Antonio Costa with Angela Merkel during a visit to Lisbon by the German chancellor.
    Costa recently told the European parliament that, thanks to his government’s alternative economic approach, Portuguese people, in contrast to many European countries, had regained their “trust in the democratic institutions and in their belief in the EU”.

    He reeled off a list of economic achievements, including reduced inequality, increasing employment and a budget deficit well within EU rules. Last year the European commission released Portugal from its bailout conditions.

    Last October Costa swept the board in local elections that gave the socialists a record haul of 158 town halls out of the country’s 308 cities and towns.

    Like Ireland, Greece and Spain, the country suffered an exodus of young people in the wake of the crash, many of whom are unlikely to return. With a public-debt-to-GDP ratio of 146% last year, there is still a mountain to climb to reduce the credit bill.
    Apologies I was too lazy to notice that some of the PIGS actually flew!

    ok, maybe the UK a cross between Sweden and Pakistan

    Comment


      Originally posted by rathbaner View Post
      I think it's fairly clear that the 'plan' is designed to be rejected, to be angrily rejected in fact. And they've described it as a final 'offer' which the EU can take or leave. And that's because there's an outside chance that the EU might all their bluff and say that they're willing to talk about it,

      So what's the point of it? IMHO the point of it is to force an election in the UK asap. If he can't get a deal, & won't ask for an extension then it's up to parliament to kick him out and whatever happens with the Benn Act there's an election called after two weeks.

      Interesting to see whether Jo Swinson will block a temporary govt. there's a lot of hedge funds willing to pay big political contributions for her to take a 'principled' stand against Labour. just like they did against Gordon Brown and Ed Milliband.
      Jo Swinson will accept Corbyn as a temp PM, never forget, when a lady says 'NO', she usually means, 'maybe'.

      Comment


        Significant progress in what was offered. Deserves two minutes consideration and then should be burned. EU is being smart seeking legal text rather than dismissing off hand.

        Comment


          Originally posted by tippete7trees View Post

          Jo Swinson will accept Corbyn as a temp PM, never forget, when a lady says 'NO', she usually means, 'maybe'.
          It doesn’t matter about Swinson, if anyone think Nicholas Soames or any of the other former Tory MPs are going to give Corbyn the keys to number 10 they are insane. Looking like Boris’ plan might be passed in Parliament anyway, the focus groups etc are indicating that the majority just want the whole business over and done with and a few MPs are getting squeaky bum time. I expect a proper old Fudge to emerge, with a time limit to the backstop squirrelled away somewhere to be clarified at a later date and the UK to leave with a deal on the 31st October. Imagine the relief of the other MEPs if they no longer have to go to work and be confronted by the hideous spectre of Ann Widecombe every day.

          Comment


            Originally posted by the plastic paddy View Post

            It doesn’t matter about Swinson, if anyone think Nicholas Soames or any of the other former Tory MPs are going to give Corbyn the keys to number 10 they are insane. Looking like Boris’ plan might be passed in Parliament anyway, the focus groups etc are indicating that the majority just want the whole business over and done with and a few MPs are getting squeaky bum time. I expect a proper old Fudge to emerge, with a time limit to the backstop squirrelled away somewhere to be clarified at a later date and the UK to leave with a deal on the 31st October. Imagine the relief of the other MEPs if they no longer have to go to work and be confronted by the hideous spectre of Ann Widecombe every day.
            (1) It won't get through the commons, it's not an authentic plan.

            (2) The protocol is that the leader of the opposition gets 1st chance to replace the ex PM. After some public hand wringing Corbyn will get it (if they go for the plan to put Doris out that way). Nobody thinks it's giving Corbyn the the keys to No. 10. It just a tactic to bin Doris which will be followed pronto by an election.


            Comment


              Originally posted by tippete7trees View Post

              (1) It won't get through the commons, it's not an authentic plan.

              (2) The protocol is that the leader of the opposition gets 1st chance to replace the ex PM. After some public hand wringing Corbyn will get it (if they go for the plan to put Doris out that way). Nobody thinks it's giving Corbyn the the keys to No. 10. It just a tactic to bin Doris which will be followed pronto by an election.

              Without the votes from the 21 former Tories nothing will happen. They will not vote for Corbyn to become PM, however temporarily. The bickering between Swinson and Labour is a red herring and just both parties lining up for a general election that I am not entirely sure we are going to see anyway. I expect, after the two minute to midnight deal the prodigal Tories will be welcomed back into the fold and the party will maintain their grip on power. The economy will enjoy a substantial bounce as all the withheld investment etc splurges in and, as long as Corbyn remains leader of the opposition, Boris will call an election when he is guaranteed a 50 seat majority in the spring.
              Last edited by the plastic paddy; 3rd-October-2019, 10:28.

              Comment


                PP there is zero chance of that passing through the EU.

                It's as if Johnson sent something that he knew wouldn't be acceptable, so that he could blame the EU for being difficult ....
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                Comment


                  Originally posted by fitzy73 View Post
                  PP there is zero chance of that passing through the EU.

                  It's as if Johnson sent something that he knew wouldn't be acceptable, so that he could blame the EU for being difficult ....
                  We will see, my fiver would be on the UK leaving with a deal on the 31st October.
                  Last edited by the plastic paddy; 3rd-October-2019, 10:49.

                  Comment


                    Originally posted by fitzy73 View Post
                    PP there is zero chance of that passing through the EU.
                    I think you're being wildly optimistic there F73. The chances of that passing are 1000 leagues below zero.

                    Comment


                      Originally posted by tippete7trees View Post

                      I think you're being wildly optimistic there F73. The chances of that passing are 1000 leagues below zero.
                      Still more likely than Winston Churchill’s grandson voting to put Corbyn into number 10....

                      Comment


                        When you have one of his fellow expelled grandees, Ken Clarke, stating that a Corbyn government would be less harmful than a no-deal exit, I wouldn't be so quick to rule it out.
                        Tis but a scratch.

                        Comment


                          Originally posted by mr chips View Post
                          When you have one of his fellow expelled grandees, Ken Clarke, stating that a Corbyn government would be less harmful than a no-deal exit, I wouldn't be so quick to rule it out.
                          He can say what he wants, hell will freeze over before those Tories vote to put Corbyn in number 10. If we are looking at a No Deal scenario, it will be Harman/ Clarke etc who will have to lead it and I expect Corbyn to reject that and settle for No Deal instead. But there is going to be a Deal thrashed out, just wait and see.

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                            There is only one deal that can be made now before 31 October - NI staying in SM and CU; Boris just brought Arlene 55% of the way there with a smile on her face.

                            If he brings 10-20 Labour MPs On board then Arlene, Dodds, Paisley and Sammy will be feeling the cold hard wheels of a Routemaster Wrightbus rolling over their broad shoulders.

                            Given the number of MPs in the Labour for a deal group I'd say 40% chance of deal being struck. EU would immediately accept NI in CU&SM. The main unknowable now is whether ERG would reject a deal that the DUP doesn't like. I think that the ERG will go with Boris and JRM before they back the DUP as they do feel there is a risk of no Brexit now and they don't really care about NI or the Union all that much.

                            Comment


                              Originally posted by AwayFromHome View Post
                              There is only one deal that can be made now before 31 October - NI staying in SM and CU; Boris just brought Arlene 55% of the way there with a smile on her face.

                              If he brings 10-20 Labour MPs On board then Arlene, Dodds, Paisley and Sammy will be feeling the cold hard wheels of a Routemaster Wrightbus rolling over their broad shoulders.

                              Given the number of MPs in the Labour for a deal group I'd say 40% chance of deal being struck. EU would immediately accept NI in CU&SM. The main unknowable now is whether ERG would reject a deal that the DUP doesn't like. I think that the ERG will go with Boris and JRM before they back the DUP as they do feel there is a risk of no Brexit now and they don't really care about NI or the Union all that much.
                              Absolutely, and the single thing that would possibly make Corbyn electable is a No Deal Brexit and avoiding such an eventuality is the most important thing for the Tories now. There is also the very real danger that, in the short term No Deal is no where near being, ostensibly, catastrophic enough and the maniacs could sweat and spit away about how “they told you so. Also worth bearing in mind that the best chance of the Labour Party getting rid of Corbyn is avoiding No Deal, hence why I would expect many of the centrists to back a Deal, especially when it is clear that Corbyn would sooner see No Deal than a sensible caretaker PM.

                              Comment


                                Originally posted by AwayFromHome View Post
                                There is only one deal that can be made now before 31 October - NI staying in SM and CU; Boris just brought Arlene 55% of the way there with a smile on her face.

                                If he brings 10-20 Labour MPs On board then Arlene, Dodds, Paisley and Sammy will be feeling the cold hard wheels of a Routemaster Wrightbus rolling over their broad shoulders.

                                Given the number of MPs in the Labour for a deal group I'd say 40% chance of deal being struck. EU would immediately accept NI in CU&SM. The main unknowable now is whether ERG would reject a deal that the DUP doesn't like. I think that the ERG will go with Boris and JRM before they back the DUP as they do feel there is a risk of no Brexit now and they don't really care about NI or the Union all that much.
                                This is the end game I have been predicting for some time.
                                Johnson wants to be the man to deliver Brexit and doing so with a deal is much more favourable.
                                Like all deals though the devil will be in the detail ,NI staying in the CM and the SM is not what the DUP want but if he can swing the votes watch Johnson throw them under his English bus.

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