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Brexit referendum and negotiations 2016-19

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    Originally posted by Major TNT View Post
    Perhaps boris and his tory eton mates will appeal the supreme court judgement to the european court of appeal....
    Brilliant! I love it
    "There are a lot of points that we’ve left behind and this is with a young group. That probably tells you what they’re capable of and that they’re a very good side.

    Probably next year or the year after next they will take some stopping"

    Anthony Foley, May 2016. Axel RIP

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      Today in New York: one found to have unlawfully suspended parliament; the other now facing a formal impeachment enquiry. A special relationship alright.

      "I don't believe in fairytales," O'Connell once told me, "even though it feels like I've been lucky enough to live through a few. However it ends, I'll feel lucky."
      Donald McRae, Guardian Rugby, October 2015

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        I was shocked with the verdict to be honest..I at best I though a 8-3 split but 11 -0 is incredible.
        ​​​​
        ​​​​Much, much laughter listening to the gammon on talk radio for the last few days. It would appear that they didn't actually want British judges in British courts after all.

        A little snippet - 10 of the 12 Supreme Court justices were appointed on recommend from Tory ministers.

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          The crazy thing is that even with all this madness, the polls point to the Tories coming back with a majority + a mandate for a hard BREXIT. Corbyn’s looney left backed by the unions will do very well to hold onto existing seats. BREXIT party will harden the Torres even more. Lib Dems will get some gains but not enough.

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              Originally posted by The Last Stand View Post
              The crazy thing is that even with all this madness, the polls point to the Tories coming back with a majority + a mandate for a hard BREXIT. Corbyn’s looney left backed by the unions will do very well to hold onto existing seats. BREXIT party will harden the Torres even more. Lib Dems will get some gains but not enough.
              I think the Tories' lead will be hit if the 31 October "do or die" deadline passes and the UK is still a member of the EU. That does mean that the Brexit party will gain ground, but if ultimately a second referendum does come to pass and a genuinely meaningful vote between "this exit deal or staying in" sees a reversal of the 2016 vote, then a lot of the wind will be gone from their sails.

              I wouldn't be so dismissive of "Corbyn's loony left". Admittedly my first reaction to the fudge at the Labour conference could best have been summed up by "Ah FFS!". But on reflection, I wonder whether the Lib Dems' jump to say they are now a party of Revoke (i.e. without even putting it to a second referendum) may end up shifting the Overton window in such a way as to enable Labour to portray itself as the reasonable option, and thereby gain support for their approach from enough of the moderate Tory electorate to hold their noses, swing things back in their favour.

              Not saying that's likely, mind you - it'd be an astounding feat of political sleight of hand, by a party not in the recent habit of behaving as a coherent or united entity. But I don't think it's impossible either.
              Tis but a scratch.

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                Originally posted by mr chips View Post

                I think the Tories' lead will be hit if the 31 October "do or die" deadline passes and the UK is still a member of the EU. That does mean that the Brexit party will gain ground, but if ultimately a second referendum does come to pass and a genuinely meaningful vote between "this exit deal or staying in" sees a reversal of the 2016 vote, then a lot of the wind will be gone from their sails.

                I wouldn't be so dismissive of "Corbyn's loony left". Admittedly my first reaction to the fudge at the Labour conference could best have been summed up by "Ah FFS!". But on reflection, I wonder whether the Lib Dems' jump to say they are now a party of Revoke (i.e. without even putting it to a second referendum) may end up shifting the Overton window in such a way as to enable Labour to portray itself as the reasonable option, and thereby gain support for their approach from enough of the moderate Tory electorate to hold their noses, swing things back in their favour.

                Not saying that's likely, mind you - it'd be an astounding feat of political sleight of hand, by a party not in the recent habit of behaving as a coherent or united entity. But I don't think it's impossible either.
                The Lib Dems are desperate. They know no party could ever win an election on a remain platform but they'll settle for ensuring Labour don't get to lead the country to remain.

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                    And during this time, in EU...

                    https://twitter.com/BBCkatyaadler/st...-politics-live
                    The Scots (originally Irish, but by now Scotch) were at this time inhabiting Ireland, having driven the Irish (Picts) out of Scotland; while the Picts (originally Scots) were now Irish (living in brackets) and vice versa. It is essential to keep these distinctions clearly in mind (and verce visa).

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                      Doris' cunning plan won't be accepted. He has 2 choices: Either throw Marlene and Tammy under the bus or an extension.

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                        Commemorate Nevin Spence here -
                        http://www.mycharity.ie/event/munste..._nevin_spence/

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                          Meanwhile..................back on planet Earth............it's impossible to fathom any sensible rationale for Doris' strategy other than as a device to get him PM. We're well used to the DUPEs having no clue. No Deal Brexs*it still leaves the UK needing a deal with the EU but now in a much weaker bargaining position. Dream on about WT rules etc. By the time that's resolved the UK will be Portugal Mark 2. The reality is they would end up more or less trying to get back into the EU. If the DUPEs had half a brain between them they'd be grabbing remain with both hands because 'No Deal ' will bring a United Ireland long before the UK recovers. The irony is: The Republic is now closer to the spirit of Presbyterianism than the DUPEs themselves who've perverted it into a rigid sectarian bigoted life denying hate dogma.

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                            Originally posted by tippete7trees View Post
                            Doris' cunning plan won't be accepted. He has 2 choices: Either throw Marlene and Tammy under the bus or an extension.
                            I think it's fairly clear that the 'plan' is designed to be rejected, to be angrily rejected in fact. And they've described it as a final 'offer' which the EU can take or leave. And that's because there's an outside chance that the EU might all their bluff and say that they're willing to talk about it,

                            So what's the point of it? IMHO the point of it is to force an election in the UK asap. If he can't get a deal, & won't ask for an extension then it's up to parliament to kick him out and whatever happens with the Benn Act there's an election called after two weeks.

                            Interesting to see whether Jo Swinson will block a temporary govt. there's a lot of hedge funds willing to pay big political contributions for her to take a 'principled' stand against Labour. just like they did against Gordon Brown and Ed Milliband.
                            Last edited by rathbaner; 2nd-October-2019, 12:23.
                            Munster – Champions of Europe 2006, 2008, 2020.

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                              Originally posted by tippete7trees View Post
                              Meanwhile..................back on planet Earth............it's impossible to fathom any sensible rationale for Doris' strategy other than as a device to get him PM. We're well used to the DUPEs having no clue. No Deal Brexs*it still leaves the UK needing a deal with the EU but now in a much weaker bargaining position. Dream on about WT rules etc. By the time that's resolved the UK will be Portugal Mark 2. The reality is they would end up more or less trying to get back into the EU. If the DUPEs had half a brain between them they'd be grabbing remain with both hands because 'No Deal ' will bring a United Ireland long before the UK recovers. The irony is: The Republic is now closer to the spirit of Presbyterianism than the DUPEs themselves who've perverted it into a rigid sectarian bigoted life denying hate dogma.
                              The real Portugal Mark 2 deserves a lot of respect. Doing okay thank you.
                              GUARDIAN:
                              https://www.theguardian.com/business...rash-austerity


                              Portugal


                              Lisbon followed the post-crash route charted by the UK and Ireland of punishing austerity before voters in 2015 ditched the rightwing government led by Pedro Passos Coelho in favour of the socialist leader António Costa. Since then, austerity has eased, consumer and business confidence has recovered and GDP growth has stayed above 2%. Portuguese prime minister Antonio Costa with Angela Merkel

                              Portuguese prime minister Antonio Costa with Angela Merkel during a visit to Lisbon by the German chancellor.
                              Costa recently told the European parliament that, thanks to his government’s alternative economic approach, Portuguese people, in contrast to many European countries, had regained their “trust in the democratic institutions and in their belief in the EU”.

                              He reeled off a list of economic achievements, including reduced inequality, increasing employment and a budget deficit well within EU rules. Last year the European commission released Portugal from its bailout conditions.

                              Last October Costa swept the board in local elections that gave the socialists a record haul of 158 town halls out of the country’s 308 cities and towns.

                              Like Ireland, Greece and Spain, the country suffered an exodus of young people in the wake of the crash, many of whom are unlikely to return. With a public-debt-to-GDP ratio of 146% last year, there is still a mountain to climb to reduce the credit bill.
                              Last edited by aupa les rouges; 2nd-October-2019, 12:22.

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                                It's absolutely clear by now that Johnson will take whatever steps he needs to to leave with no deal. He is now a fully paid up member to the Bannon shtick of "knock it down to build it up" nonsense. Further, this also plays to his inbuilt concept and illusions of grandeur - he genuinely sees himself as a modern day Churchill.

                                Sadly I have no faith in parliaments ability to stop him, either before 31st Oct or after an election. Labour is a mess, the Lib Dems shot themselves in the foot with their revoke A50 stance, and if (and it's a massive if in my book) there is an election the Tories will win a majority imho.

                                I hope I'm wrong, but the next few months could be a tinderbox.
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