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Brexit referendum and negotiations 2016-19

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    #46
    Originally posted by Sulla View Post
    Boris only saying vote no to embarrass Cameron, he just can't accept he made to Conservative leader and PM before himself.
    It is purely political opportunism. I think it is more about the future than the past.

    If leave EU wins then it will be Boris not Osborne who will be in line to succeed Cameron.

    Ironic really that Boris was born in the US and part of his education was at the European school in Brussels.

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      #47
      Originally posted by The Last Stand View Post
      The UK will really feel it in negotiations with the US as they will not get the same terms as the EU will get. Not only that but they have not had to do real direct trade negotiations for 30 years.
      The Brexit camp are already spinning that as an opportunity!?!?

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        #48
        Originally posted by the plastic paddy View Post
        The Brexit camp are already spinning that as an opportunity!?!?
        There is no way in hell that the UK will get a better deal than the EU. Size matters.

        The problem for Ireland will be our exports to the UK. Cheap US beef could be a problem (and a massive problem for UK producers too) but then we will just have to ensure that we can access EU markets better.

        There will be no winners in this in the short term. The only positive is that the referendum will happen in 2016 and not 2017.

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          #49
          Originally posted by The Last Stand View Post
          It is purely political opportunism. I think it is more about the future than the past.

          If leave EU wins then it will be Boris not Osborne who will be in line to succeed Cameron.

          Ironic really that Boris was born in the US and part of his education was at the European school in Brussels.
          Even if they lose, he's pretty much guaranteed a slot in the final group of contenders. He's not generally been regarded as having a very strong Westminster power base, but he's just laid claim to one that will make sure he's in the running.

          It will be interesting to see how he plays his hand now.
          "We will not walk in fear, one of another. We will not be driven into an age of unreason if we dig deep into our history and remember we are not descended from fearful men" Edward R Murrow

          "Little by little, we have been brought into the present condition in which we are able neither to tolerate the evils from which we suffer, nor the remedies we need to cure them." - Livy


          "I think that progress has been made by two flames that have always been burning in the human heart. The flame of anger against injustice and the flame of hope that you can build a better world" - Tony Benn

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            #50
            Originally posted by The Last Stand View Post
            It is purely political opportunism. I think it is more about the future than the past.

            If leave EU wins then it will be Boris not Osborne who will be in line to succeed Cameron.

            Ironic really that Boris was born in the US and part of his education was at the European school in Brussels.
            Doubt it, Boris is Michael Heseltine to Cameron's Thatcher, the Tory party won't warm to him for this.
            Nulla semper amicus, servivit mihi, in iniuriam mihi neminem quem non persolvi

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              #51
              Originally posted by The Last Stand View Post
              There is no way in hell that the UK will get a better deal than the EU. Size matters.

              The problem for Ireland will be our exports to the UK. Cheap US beef could be a problem (and a massive problem for UK producers too) but then we will just have to ensure that we can access EU markets better.

              There will be no winners in this in the short term. The only positive is that the referendum will happen in 2016 and not 2017.
              Food will not be an issue in the UK, you are talking about the most long term
              Urbanised country on earth, people have zero connection to the land.

              Comment


                #52
                Brexit referendum taking place on Thurs 23rd June 2016

                Originally posted by Sulla View Post
                Doubt it, Boris is Michael Heseltine to Cameron's Thatcher, the Tory party won't warm to him for this.
                The reality may be different but this is where Boris is coming from. He is ambitious.

                And the context here is that Cameron has said he will not continue so the leadership contest is already live. Boris is 51 - now is his time.
                Last edited by The Last Stand; 22nd-February-2016, 11:32.

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                  #53
                  If I was living in Britain I'd be very tempted to vote to leave the EU
                  This 'ever closer union' aspiration doesn't appeal to me at all.
                  I'd be quite happy with the closeness we had pre-Nice thanks and I certainly don't want
                  us getting even closer or becoming part of a country that includes everything from here
                  to the Caspian Sea.
                  Just chucking everyone into one country isn't the cure for the world's problems,
                  Look at the soviet union, Yugoslavia and Europe itself was doing pretty well, post-Napoleon, until
                  the Prussians decided to make a German Union.
                  I think that something needs to happen to put a stop to this doctrine and maybe it's the Brits voting to leave
                  that will be the wake up call Europe needs.

                  Comment


                    #54
                    This Brexit thingy is certainly going to be interesting both in itself, but on deeper examination on the issues it will raise for other parties e.g. Ireland, and the Irish UK relationships, Scotland, Wales, The UK EU, UK US and hence US EU relationships, and of course the EU itself.

                    I think it probably won't be passed, but of course I might be wrong, but even so it will probably slow t the Franco German push for closer EU integration and also expansion, which may be not be any bad thing.

                    There's alot at stake here, andI ironically in many ways even more at stake outside the UK, in that the implications of those things impacted by this will have a bigger overall impact on Europe and the World.
                    Last edited by Daithi; 22nd-February-2016, 12:23.
                    ____________________________________________
                    Munster were great when they were Munster.

                    alas they are just north munster now.......
                    ____________________________________________

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                      #55
                      Originally posted by the plastic paddy View Post
                      Food will not be an issue in the UK, you are talking about the most long term
                      Urbanised country on earth, people have zero connection to the land.
                      You dont need a connection to the land to be hungry, UK imports the vast majority of its foodstuffs much from the price manipulated EU agri sector, a shift in this dynamic has obvious effects on the underlying market.

                      Comment


                        #56
                        I am pro EU from an Irish perspective but this idea of ever closer union is nuts. The US has huge diversity from state to state in terms of many laws but they also share a currency. This idea of a common and harmonised approach across more and more areas in a diverse Union is killing the EU - which should be a union of nation states.

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                          #57
                          Originally posted by bundi View Post
                          You dont need a connection to the land to be hungry, UK imports the vast majority of its foodstuffs much from the price manipulated EU agri sector, a shift in this dynamic has obvious effects on the underlying market.
                          The UK produced about 80% of its food requirements in the 1980s, less now due to changes in EU farm policy.
                          If push came to shove the UK could be food self sufficient but unless world trade is shut down there's no desire or necessity for that.

                          Comment


                            #58
                            Oddly enough you are very wrong about Boris..he happens to be one of the most popular politicians in England.People forget the English love eccentricity.
                            Take Boris lightly at your Peril.
                            Outside London..the EEC is not popular..the English people generally do not like being told what to do especially by Eurocrats.
                            It will be a very tight call in June.
                            Everything we hear is an opinion, not a fact. Everything we see is a perspective, not the truth. (Marcus Aurelius, 121-189 AD)

                            Comment


                              #59
                              Originally posted by Pythagoras View Post
                              The UK produced about 80% of its food requirements in the 1980s, less now due to changes in EU farm policy.
                              If push came to shove the UK could be food self sufficient but unless world trade is shut down there's no desire or necessity for that.
                              There are more than ten million extra mouths to feed now, also its the effect on the market which would hurt most of all. Security of supply is the bottom line.

                              Comment


                                #60
                                How many of Fleet St's finest will be backing Brexit? All of them bar the Guardian and the Mirror, I'd say. The Telegraph has lost it's collective mind already. It wouldn't surprise me to see its leader writers storm the beaches of Normandy so they could sail home triumphantly from Dunkirk.

                                In my experience the attitude in England to the EU runs from outright hatred to a sniffy distaste. Who's going to campaign in favour of staying in? Bankers, Blairites and Theresa May? The most despised people in the land.

                                If I was Enda, when the Brits exit I'd hire the likes of Bertie and Bill Clinton to seek to negotiate a special status for Ireland within the EU. To keep the entire island inside the EU, in some special status way while obviously recognising NornIrn as a UK jurisdiction.
                                Munster – Champions of Europe 2006, 2008, 2020.

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