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Brexit referendum and negotiations 2016-19

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    Originally posted by tippete7trees View Post
    Amber Rudd resigns the whip over Brexit policy. Doris is a goner. Just a question of time. The new 'Churchill' will be turfed out ignominiously.
    She saw which way the wind was blowing. Or else was promised a lighter solution from Boris who cannot deliver on it.

    Comment


      Originally posted by lawrence View Post

      Thanks, haven’t seen that explained elsewhere, is there not some restriction on laws being passed so quickly? It’s hardly a good idea for something so complex to be rushed

      The lack of a binding nature to the new law is interesting, what’s to stop parliament never approving a deal or a NO deal and ensuring the PM has to seek continuous extensions?
      The only restriction is how fast Parliament is willing to work. Normally it does take longer. Second readings for most bills are done in committee before being brought for a vote in the full house so that amendments can be properly considered on their merits away from the theatre of party politics. But it is not unique for the House of Commons (or the Dail) to act as what is called a 'committee of the whole' and rush things through without a committee stage in case of emergency. It's also very odd for a legislature to tie the hands of the executive this much in an international negotiation. I think it's fair to say that both sides are pushing constituational convention to its absolute limits. (I've honestly felt since the referendum result that the U.K. will break up. I don't think all of the Civil War references in the past 6 months are overblown. Hopefully it won't be as violent but the long term implications will be as big).

      Nothing stops Parliament from blocking no deal or any deal. That is the central part of Parliamentary sovereignty. There is no cut off by which the MUST have given effect to the referendum result. In Ireland for example the Dail never legislated properly after the Supreme Court rulings on the X and C cases and there was no way of anyone really forcing that to happen apart from making it an election issue and voting in TDs who wanted to make that a priority. In Ireland that didn't happen. I think in the U.K. It will and in the end a new House of Commons will get elected to deal with thisone way or the other.

      Comment


        Originally posted by The Last Stand View Post

        She saw which way the wind was blowing. Or else was promised a lighter solution from Boris who cannot deliver on it.
        Ken Clarke did an Interview over the last few days where he said that Boris admitted to him that in the Leadership campaign that he didn't really believe in. Remit bit had to get it done now. I think some moderate Tories like Rudd and Hankock thought that Boris would be the only one who could sell a deal to the extremists. (In Ireland only FF could have sold the removal of Art 2 and 3 - Bruton would have been slaughtered for suggesting it).

        Since July two things have become clearer (to many they were already clear) the ERG will not vote for any deal that moght be available and Boris doesn't have any magic wand that's can change that.

        Comment


          Originally posted by AwayFromHome View Post

          The only restriction is how fast Parliament is willing to work. Normally it does take longer. Second readings for most bills are done in committee before being brought for a vote in the full house so that amendments can be properly considered on their merits away from the theatre of party politics. But it is not unique for the House of Commons (or the Dail) to act as what is called a 'committee of the whole' and rush things through without a committee stage in case of emergency. It's also very odd for a legislature to tie the hands of the executive this much in an international negotiation. I think it's fair to say that both sides are pushing constituational convention to its absolute limits. (I've honestly felt since the referendum result that the U.K. will break up. I don't think all of the Civil War references in the past 6 months are overblown. Hopefully it won't be as violent but the long term implications will be as big).

          Nothing stops Parliament from blocking no deal or any deal. That is the central part of Parliamentary sovereignty. There is no cut off by which the MUST have given effect to the referendum result. In Ireland for example the Dail never legislated properly after the Supreme Court rulings on the X and C cases and there was no way of anyone really forcing that to happen apart from making it an election issue and voting in TDs who wanted to make that a priority. In Ireland that didn't happen. I think in the U.K. It will and in the end a new House of Commons will get elected to deal with thisone way or the other.

          I remember a piece of legislation being rushed through the Dail granting the government the powers to Shut down all mobile communication networks as a safety measure for the visit of a US president, that was done and dusted signed by the president In only a couple
          of days.

          More and more lately I’m wondering how both sides of the Brexit vote are not out protesting at the behaviour of their elected officials. Neither side is getting what they want, with no sign of it happening for either, and the commons is just a room full of maladjusted kids attempting to come up with the greatest backhanded insult for some other right honourable gentleman.

          Comment


            Originally posted by lawrence View Post


            I remember a piece of legislation being rushed through the Dail granting the government the powers to Shut down all mobile communication networks as a safety measure for the visit of a US president, that was done and dusted signed by the president In only a couple
            of days.

            More and more lately I’m wondering how both sides of the Brexit vote are not out protesting at the behaviour of their elected officials. Neither side is getting what they want, with no sign of it happening for either, and the commons is just a room full of maladjusted kids attempting to come up with the greatest backhanded insult for some other right honourable gentleman.
            I think people actually care alot less about Brexit than politicians and the media think they do. Boris and Corbyn probably realize this more than most. Most people vote on economic issues not cultural ones or legalistic ones. Economic issues are also seen at the micro level. That's why Enda's keep the recovery going fell flat because while the national level statistics were showing progress most people didn't FEEL they had 'recovered'

            Small business owners don't like some of the EU red tape and some working class voters don't like the increased competition for jobs from Eastern European migrants. Both groups have heard enough in the past two years to feel that Brexit may not make this game better off. That's why BoJo's campaign so far has been built around investing in the NHS and police etc - things that make people feel better off.

            Comment


              Originally posted by AwayFromHome View Post

              I think people actually care alot less about Brexit than politicians and the media think they do. Boris and Corbyn probably realize this more than most. Most people vote on economic issues not cultural ones or legalistic ones. Economic issues are also seen at the micro level. That's why Enda's keep the recovery going fell flat because while the national level statistics were showing progress most people didn't FEEL they had 'recovered'

              Small business owners don't like some of the EU red tape and some working class voters don't like the increased competition for jobs from Eastern European migrants. Both groups have heard enough in the past two years to feel that Brexit may not make this game better off. That's why BoJo's campaign so far has been built around investing in the NHS and police etc - things that make people feel better off.
              I met a friend of mine at a wedding a few weeks ago, he works in London for a Tourism / Leisure based company that trades internationally which is very susceptible to global issues.

              Asked him about brexit and he said they take no notice of it. We in Ireland have an unhealthy fascination with everything that happens in UK politics and whatever Trump is doing that day, when in reality both affect us far far less than the time and attention they get.

              Comment


                While it is true that the country isn't out demonstrating every day, recent "calls to arms" have seen a million plus people out UK wide looking for a second referendum. I do agree that most people are pretty fed up with it now, and depending on their stance, either want a no deal or a second referendum.

                On a day to day basis it's all a bit "don't mention the B word", though. I'd doing a piece of work for someone at the moment, where a no deal Brexit would have a profound impact on their operating model. Yet when I called this out as a risk, I was told to remove it as it was "too politically divisive". So they are looking a business case for a large system investment without the biggest existential risk being mentioned, which is frankly idiotic.


                Please support Milford Hospice. Click here to donate.

                Comment


                  Bercow has announced that he is resigning as speaker on 31st Oct (as long as there isn't an election before that), allowing parliament rather than the Conservatives to appoint his successor.

                  Comment


                    Originally posted by AwayFromHome View Post

                    I think people actually care alot less about Brexit than politicians and the media think they do. Boris and Corbyn probably realize this more than most. Most people vote on economic issues not cultural ones or legalistic ones. Economic issues are also seen at the micro level. That's why Enda's keep the recovery going fell flat because while the national level statistics were showing progress most people didn't FEEL they had 'recovered'

                    Small business owners don't like some of the EU red tape and some working class voters don't like the increased competition for jobs from Eastern European migrants. Both groups have heard enough in the past two years to feel that Brexit may not make this game better off. That's why BoJo's campaign so far has been built around investing in the NHS and police etc - things that make people feel better off.
                    This is markedly different, I think. Polling suggests that Brexit stances are over-riding party political ones, and other issues are being submerged.

                    It's not about the technicalities of Brexit, but it's become a proxy for what has always been the fundamental dividing line in British (or rather English) culture.
                    "We will not walk in fear, one of another. We will not be driven into an age of unreason if we dig deep into our history and remember we are not descended from fearful men" Edward R Murrow

                    "Little by little, we have been brought into the present condition in which we are able neither to tolerate the evils from which we suffer, nor the remedies we need to cure them." - Livy


                    "I think that progress has been made by two flames that have always been burning in the human heart. The flame of anger against injustice and the flame of hope that you can build a better world" - Tony Benn

                    Comment


                      Originally posted by lawrence View Post

                      I met a friend of mine at a wedding a few weeks ago, he works in London for a Tourism / Leisure based company that trades internationally which is very susceptible to global issues.

                      Asked him about brexit and he said they take no notice of it. We in Ireland have an unhealthy fascination with everything that happens in UK politics and whatever Trump is doing that day, when in reality both affect us far far less than the time and attention they get.
                      A no deal Brexit will have a profound impact on Ireland, and deserves all the attention it's getting.

                      Every major corporate I'm aware of has been doing scenario and mitigation planning for a fair while now. Major investment decisions have already been shaped by it.
                      "We will not walk in fear, one of another. We will not be driven into an age of unreason if we dig deep into our history and remember we are not descended from fearful men" Edward R Murrow

                      "Little by little, we have been brought into the present condition in which we are able neither to tolerate the evils from which we suffer, nor the remedies we need to cure them." - Livy


                      "I think that progress has been made by two flames that have always been burning in the human heart. The flame of anger against injustice and the flame of hope that you can build a better world" - Tony Benn

                      Comment


                        Originally posted by Balla Boy View Post

                        A no deal Brexit will have a profound impact on Ireland, and deserves all the attention it's getting.

                        Every major corporate I'm aware of has been doing scenario and mitigation planning for a fair while now. Major investment decisions have already been shaped by it.

                        Sure its going to have an impact, but the level
                        of coverage that UK politics gets is as much if not greater than the coverage of what’s happening in Ireland, and it’s not coverage of events, it’s coverage of speeches and lines as opposed to facts and decisions, it’s closer to a soap opera than anything else.


                        have a look at the top 4 stories on Rte mobile app currently and tell me Irish media isn’t more
                        concerned with what’s happening in the UK than here.

                        ”no backstop same as no deal Taoiseach tell BOjo“

                        “live House of Commons - Key Vote”

                        ”UK parliament due to be suspended later today”

                        ”Sterling Rebounds on Data Surprise”



                        Last edited by lawrence; 9th-September-2019, 16:29.

                        Comment


                          Originally posted by lawrence View Post


                          Sure its going to have an impact, but the level
                          of coverage that UK politics gets is as much if not greater than the coverage of what’s happening in Ireland, and it’s not coverage of events, it’s coverage of speeches and lines as opposed to facts and decisions, it’s closer to a soap opera than anything else.


                          have a look at the top 4 stories on Rte mobile app currently and tell me Irish media isn’t more
                          concerned with what’s happening in the UK than here.

                          ”no backstop same as no deal Taoiseach tell BOjo“

                          “live House of Commons - Key Vote”

                          ”UK parliament due to be suspended later today”

                          ”Sterling Rebounds on Data Surprise”


                          Do you think it's disproportionate though?

                          Totting it up, we're talking about the rupturing of the Good Friday Agreement, the installation of a hard border between north and south, massive impact on cross border bodies and services, the disappearance of the framework that covers the 11% of Irish exports that go to the UK etc

                          There are opportunities for Ireland in Brexit, but I can't imagine that there's much going on that will have a bigger impact on the country.
                          "We will not walk in fear, one of another. We will not be driven into an age of unreason if we dig deep into our history and remember we are not descended from fearful men" Edward R Murrow

                          "Little by little, we have been brought into the present condition in which we are able neither to tolerate the evils from which we suffer, nor the remedies we need to cure them." - Livy


                          "I think that progress has been made by two flames that have always been burning in the human heart. The flame of anger against injustice and the flame of hope that you can build a better world" - Tony Benn

                          Comment


                            It is a general media problem playing out on a bait and long scale; it's bloody hard to explain the connections between complex interconnected outcomes and day to day decisions. As Lawrence says above, most of what is being reported is not actually a decision but at the same time the gradual evolution of events will shape whatever decision is taken. Analysts need to be able to know about and reflect on what is going on and assess the implications. The man on the clapham omnibus doesn't, but he is still being bombarded with information and he's probably getting mightily pissed off with it all.

                            Ultimately two contradictory things can be true at the same time. In this case that daily events on Brexit will have huge impacts on everyone on these islands over the medium term and that ordinary people don't really need to and probably can't absorb the day by day accounts of it.

                            Comment


                              Originally posted by Balla Boy View Post

                              Do you think it's disproportionate though?

                              Totting it up, we're talking about the rupturing of the Good Friday Agreement, the installation of a hard border between north and south, massive impact on cross border bodies and services, the disappearance of the framework that covers the 11% of Irish exports that go to the UK etc

                              There are opportunities for Ireland in Brexit, but I can't imagine that there's much going on that will have a bigger impact on the country.


                              Completely disproportionate, its not talking about the rupturing of the GFA, or the installation of border infrastructure and all that comes with it, its the millionth article that says these things might happen. We don’t need coverage that a vote will take place later, we need the results and implications when that vote is returned. If sterling as dropped that doesn’t effect the majority of people on this island, why not report on the value of the Euro, the ****ing currency we use.

                              The media here is leaving the Beef strikes on the small pages, something that effects Irish people just as much as Brexit.

                              How many other issues are on the back burner media wise because the media’s focus is on something We have no control over. Homelessness heading into another winter, infrastructure projects, children’s hospital, national broadband plan, cervical check debacle. All non issues as long as BOJO is throwing out the sound bites.


                              With brexit We just have to take the medicine we are given whenever it is given if we like it or not.

                              Comment


                                [QUOTE=lawrence


                                With brexit We just have to take the medicine we are given whenever it is given if we like it or not.[/QUOTE]

                                Not true. We have to plan ahead to minimize the pain. That does involve assessing developments day by day. But I agree with you that the average person doesn't really need minute by minute reporting.

                                Comment

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