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Brexit referendum and negotiations 2016-19

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    Anti no deal crash MPs will do whatever it takes to prevent it.

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      Originally posted by tippete7trees View Post
      Anti no deal crash MPs will do whatever it takes to prevent it.
      So will the EU.

      Comment


        Originally posted by the plastic paddy View Post

        So will the EU.
        They won't compromise on the backstop......What they want is another plan, a PV or a general election or something new. No rolling cliff edge which is predicated on the fecksiteers delusion that the EU WILL compromise. Basically they have Die Englanders by die hoden and the squeezing will go on until morale improves.
        Last edited by tippete7trees; 20th-March-2019, 17:16.

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          You are vastly underestimating how driven May is to deliver Brexit - with or without a deal, how the ERG will throw every spanner they can into scuppering any deal, and most importantly of all how utterly sick the EU is of the British.

          The EU do not want a no deal, but not at the expense of EP elections and their plans going forward. So if it's no deal, it's no deal. They didn't choose it, but they will enable it.

          Unless something extraordinary happens, either the May deal goes through or its no deal.

          ​​​​​​And no deal is a lot, lot closer to happening than many think.

          ​​​
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            And much of that is down to Bercow. That said, if MV 3 is still no then it will be a long extension and Parliament will vote for it.

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              Wake up in the mornings
              check Guardian headlines - say to myself, she cannot be that Cupid a stunt can she?
              realise throughout the day she is, in fact that big a Cupid stunt!

              I am the million man.

              Comment


                Originally posted by fitzy73 View Post
                You are vastly underestimating how driven May is to deliver Brexit - with or without a deal, how the ERG will throw every spanner they can into scuppering any deal, and most importantly of all how utterly sick the EU is of the British.

                The EU do not want a no deal, but not at the expense of EP elections and their plans going forward. So if it's no deal, it's no deal. They didn't choose it, but they will enable it.

                Unless something extraordinary happens, either the May deal goes through or its no deal.

                ​​​​​​And no deal is a lot, lot closer to happening than many think.

                ​​​
                I have a perverse faith that when it comes to the crunch, people usually choose survival. No deal would lead to the biggest upheaval seen in Britain since god knows when. Could destroy the Tories and make them the new Liberal party 2. The ERGs are up for it but there's too many sensible MPs to allow it.

                Comment


                  Originally posted by tippete7trees View Post

                  I have a perverse faith that when it comes to the crunch, people usually choose survival. No deal would lead to the biggest upheaval seen in Britain since god knows when. Could destroy the Tories and make them the new Liberal party 2. The ERGs are up for it but there's too many sensible MPs to allow it.
                  Yes, there is a majority for no deal. Yes, the EU would prefer a deal.

                  However, there is no majority for anything at the moment. None. Zero. Nada. In the absence of a majority for May's deal, then no deal is the default and is legislated to happen next Friday at 11pm.

                  They have a week to agree to a MV3, table admendments, vote on and legislate an alternative that does not exist.

                  Further, for anyone paying attention to Tusk, Barnier etc in the last few days the message could not be clearer - support May's deal, come up with a viable alternative pretty damn quickly, or it's no deal.
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                    Originally posted by fitzy73 View Post

                    Yes, there is a majority for no deal. Yes, the EU would prefer a deal.

                    However, there is no majority for anything at the moment. None. Zero. Nada. In the absence of a majority for May's deal, then no deal is the default and is legislated to happen next Friday at 11pm.

                    They have a week to agree to a MV3, table admendments, vote on and legislate an alternative that does not exist.

                    Further, for anyone paying attention to Tusk, Barnier etc in the last few days the message could not be clearer - support May's deal, come up with a viable alternative pretty damn quickly, or it's no deal.
                    There won’t be a No Deal, there is just too much risk for everyone in such a scenario. If they vote down MV3 then it will be a long extension or revocation of article 50. Enough opposition MPs will vote for that to counter balance the ERG. The ERG and DUP know that and will back the deal.

                    Comment


                      Originally posted by the plastic paddy View Post

                      There won’t be a No Deal, there is just too much risk for everyone in such a scenario. If they vote down MV3 then it will be a long extension or revocation of article 50. Enough opposition MPs will vote for that to counter balance the ERG. The ERG and DUP know that and will back the deal.
                      How will they do that? What is their alternative? How will they do it in a week?

                      ​​​​​
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                        Originally posted by the plastic paddy View Post

                        There won’t be a No Deal, there is just too much risk for everyone in such a scenario. If they vote down MV3 then it will be a long extension or revocation of article 50. Enough opposition MPs will vote for that to counter balance the ERG. The ERG and DUP know that and will back the deal.
                        I'm not so sure about that. The DUPE have painted themselves into a corner over the backstop, while the ERGs cannot stomach indefinite customs union...........that's a circle to be squared.........

                        Comment


                          Originally posted by fitzy73 View Post

                          How will they do that? What is their alternative? How will they do it in a week?

                          ​​​​​
                          If she manages to get a third vote next week, anything can happen in terms of amendments. I'd expect a PV amendment to be put down, and even a revocation amendment could be tabled.

                          I don't think she's going to be able to force it through. For Parliament to allow itself to be forced to the brink by the executive in such a deliberate and calculated manner would be unprecedented. She's the leader of a minority govt trying to force on the House a deal that's been massively defeated twice already. The votes haven't even been close.

                          "We will not walk in fear, one of another. We will not be driven into an age of unreason if we dig deep into our history and remember we are not descended from fearful men" Edward R Murrow

                          "Little by little, we have been brought into the present condition in which we are able neither to tolerate the evils from which we suffer, nor the remedies we need to cure them." - Livy


                          "I think that progress has been made by two flames that have always been burning in the human heart. The flame of anger against injustice and the flame of hope that you can build a better world" - Tony Benn

                          Comment


                            As per your previous point, I'm still unsure how a MV3 would happen now. No vote, no admendments.

                            Honestly I think everyone is waiting for a duex ex machina that I just cannot see happening.
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                            Comment


                              Originally posted by fitzy73 View Post
                              As per your previous point, I'm still unsure how a MV3 would happen now. No vote, no admendments.

                              Honestly I think everyone is waiting for a duex ex machina that I just cannot see happening.
                              That's the key question I think.

                              She can't bring back a renewed deal, because she's got no time to negotiate one. Even if we imagine an emergency summit in Brussels, a dash back to Westminster, what's going to clear the Speaker's threshold and still command a majority?

                              It's not like she needs a 5 vote swing.

                              PV or No Deal I think.
                              "We will not walk in fear, one of another. We will not be driven into an age of unreason if we dig deep into our history and remember we are not descended from fearful men" Edward R Murrow

                              "Little by little, we have been brought into the present condition in which we are able neither to tolerate the evils from which we suffer, nor the remedies we need to cure them." - Livy


                              "I think that progress has been made by two flames that have always been burning in the human heart. The flame of anger against injustice and the flame of hope that you can build a better world" - Tony Benn

                              Comment


                                Originally posted by the plastic paddy View Post

                                There won’t be a No Deal, there is just too much risk for everyone in such a scenario. If they vote down MV3 then it will be a long extension or revocation of article 50. Enough opposition MPs will vote for that to counter balance the ERG. The ERG and DUP know that and will back the deal.
                                I dunno boss, I know the Guardian is quite remain-centric but now the local councils are enacting Operation Pisswater its quite quite worrying. It'll be a little story like this that will set a wildfire of panic ablaze would be my worry

                                https://www.theguardian.com/politics...ut-into-action
                                I am the million man.

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