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Brexit referendum and negotiations 2016-19

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    Originally posted by the plastic paddy View Post

    Can she offer Parliament a binary choice between No Deal or an extension?
    I don't think so.

    Parliament works on the basis of Aye or No.

    It has to be No Deal or Not and then an Extension or Not.

    It is, therefore, possible for both No Deal and the Extension to be voted down.

    Comment


      Correct. And I think they will vote against the extension because it's a time limited one and produces an actual real, proper cliff edge..

      Getting ahead of myself there but if it gets to that I've no idea what will happen.
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        I presume the terms of any extension would need to be agreed with the EU in advance.
        "It’s not the team you support, it’s the club you should support. The team on the pitch will ebb and flow because that’s the nature of sport. No team has ever been successful decade on decade. The club has the history and that’s the passion you should have."

        Comment


          Originally posted by fitzy73 View Post
          Correct. And I think they will vote against the extension because it's a time limited one and produces an actual real, proper cliff edge..

          Getting ahead of myself there but if it gets to that I've no idea what will happen.
          Corbyn might vote for an extension because it will make May’s life very difficult with the ERG and the DUP, and also in the hope (forlorn imho) of her calling a GE.

          Comment


            • Aditya Chakrabortty should not have based his argument for Labour to support a people’s vote on the often-quoted TSSA poll of Labour leave voters (If Labour aids this Tory plot it will be crushed by what follows, 25 February). The relevant statistics are not the greater number of pro-remain over pro-Brexit Labour voters. The more relevant data concerns the numbers of leave voters in the 20 Labour-held marginals most vulnerable to the Tories – 16 of these constituencies voted for leave. Almost as relevant are the 45 Tory-held Labour target seats. More than two-thirds – 37 – of these had leave majorities.

            If Labour does not win a majority in both these types of marginal, they will not win a general election in which Brexit is a major issue. Holding on to its predominantly remain-voting constituencies will not give Labour the 64 extra seats necessary to get the majority to form a government. Irrespective of whether a new referendum could reverse the result of 2016, Labour would most probably lose a subsequent general election

            This letter in the Grauniad succinctly illustrates Labour’s Brexit dilemma.

            Comment


              Originally posted by Jenta View Post
              I presume the terms of any extension would need to be agreed with the EU in advance.
              I am the million man.

              Comment


                Originally posted by Jenta View Post
                I presume the terms of any extension would need to be agreed with the EU in advance.
                I *think* she has been told they can have an extension to the end of June as a free pass, but beyond that it's not feasible (unless they take part in European elections).

                We could be here in the 30th of March in exactly the same situation.
                ​​​​​
                ​​​​​​This is chess on a grand scale, save the fact that no one has ever played the game before and thinks it's draughts.





                ​​​​
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                  No deal won't happen, in spite of what's said by all sides. What might happen is, there is no agreement for anything and 'no deal' is the only piece left on the board. But, since 'no deal' would be such a disaster very very particularly for the UK, and there is certainly a majority for no crashing out with no deal, a crisis summit would be convened and some interim arrangement cobbled. The funny thing here is......it's only the British playing chicken here. Absolutely pathetic, but the good news is........this will demolish the ERGs for all time. No more having to look at Boris and the chinless Gove and deranged Farage, not to mention the Rev Mogg.

                  Comment


                    To rule out no deal you need clarity of what you do want. Saying "we want a deal" but not being able to express what that is won't cut the mustard.

                    The UK is way closer to a no deal than most people realise.
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                    Comment


                      If the motion to extend article 50 is amendable, a longer extension is possible. The problem for MPs trying to stop May running down the clock is that the UK will only get one extension. If it's a short one and the Tories are still in government, nothing will change. The same problems will still exist.

                      Comment


                        Originally posted by HenryFitz View Post
                        If the motion to extend article 50 is amendable, a longer extension is possible. The problem for MPs trying to stop May running down the clock is that the UK will only get one extension. If it's a short one and the Tories are still in government, nothing will change. The same problems will still exist.
                        A short extension will almost guarantee Mays deal gets voted through.

                        A longer one and another referendum is a distinct possibility.

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                        Comment


                          Originally posted by tippete7trees View Post
                          No deal won't happen, in spite of what's said by all sides. What might happen is, there is no agreement for anything and 'no deal' is the only piece left on the board. But, since 'no deal' would be such a disaster very very particularly for the UK, and there is certainly a majority for no crashing out with no deal, a crisis summit would be convened and some interim arrangement cobbled. The funny thing here is......it's only the British playing chicken here. Absolutely pathetic, but the good news is........this will demolish the ERGs for all time. No more having to look at Boris and the chinless Gove and deranged Farage, not to mention the Rev Mogg.
                          It seems unlikely that there will be a no deal unless the parliamentary arithmetic changes in a general election and the Tories and Labour get a shed load of Brexiteers in.

                          In the scheme of things there is not much difference between Mays deal (which has a semi-permanent customs Union) and what Labour wants (a permanent customs Union) and as each deadline nears the pressure to vote through Mays deal will grow. Numbers still too low in parliament to get 2nd referendum even if linked to Mays deal (as Labour now suggesting).

                          When the deal is next defeated (which seems likely) moderate (Tories and Labour) will Shirley come to some sort of understanding... stick in something in Mays deal that allows it to be rebranded as not just Tory but is Labour as well - should do the job.
                          ​​​​​​#GiveLeinsterTheHCupNow

                          Originally Posted by mr chips
                          AG gets the responses he does because he is a journalist..

                          Comment


                            One thing that has to be factored into the No Deal/ extension argument is the willingness of the EU to trigger No Deal if parliament has rejected that option. I just can’t see them risking something that calamitous if it is a default.
                            Last edited by the plastic paddy; 28th-February-2019, 05:55.

                            Comment


                              It's slightly galling to see analysts who have been baying for more action finally realise what some of us have been saying all along - that any opportunity to reverse Brexit would come when the details of the likely deals had been specified, and when time and events had been given an opportunity to work their magic.

                              The FBPE types who've been calling for Labour to stick their colours to the mast for the last 2 years were fundamentally wrong. A 2nd ref, and reversal, could not have been achieved until this exercise had unravelled.

                              Labour are now able to legitimately say "We cleared the way and gave the govt a free hand, only insisting on scrutiny from Parliament, and it's obvious that the Brexit promised cannot be delivered".

                              The question for me is whether, if a 2nd ref is called, Labour will campaign for Remain. I genuinely think that at that point Corbyn should step back from the fray a bit, let Starmer lead Labour Remain, let Flint lead Labour Brexit and declare the issue a matter of personal conscience.

                              "We will not walk in fear, one of another. We will not be driven into an age of unreason if we dig deep into our history and remember we are not descended from fearful men" Edward R Murrow

                              "Little by little, we have been brought into the present condition in which we are able neither to tolerate the evils from which we suffer, nor the remedies we need to cure them." - Livy


                              "I think that progress has been made by two flames that have always been burning in the human heart. The flame of anger against injustice and the flame of hope that you can build a better world" - Tony Benn

                              Comment


                                https://www.theguardian.com/politics...e_iOSApp_Other

                                Fingers crossed this makes it through.

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