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Brexit referendum and negotiations 2016-19

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    Originally posted by acskerries View Post

    Me father always said when he was going out to the hill-face to search out recalcitrant sheep that you'd never go wrong so long as you had a few cold boiled spuds in your pocket....
    Hence the well known Munster ceilidh hall quip: "Is dah a spud in your pocket........or are you just pleased to see me"

    Comment


      Originally posted by Balla Boy View Post

      Tusks statements is referring to her red lines surely?

      And the border issue matters. There are hospital patient transfers across the border as we speak. WTO rules will make that impossible.
      My understanding is there has to be a hard border if the UK crashes out without a WA. I just cannot see the EU allowing that to happen. FWIW I can’t see the Tories (even the ERG) allowing it to happen. This is all just a monumental game of chicken. Maybe the fact that the ERG are a bunch of swivel eyed loons gives them an advantage in such a dangerous game of Russian roulette. Like I say, the comparisons with the destruction of the ERC are eerie.

      Comment


        Hmmm .... Maybe there was some substance in Tusks remarks after all. Will May move her red lines? Ministers Think A Permanent Customs Union With The EU Is The Price For Solving The Backstop

        https://www.buzzfeed.com/amphtml/ale...ith-the-eu-is?
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        Comment


          Originally posted by fitzy73 View Post
          Hmmm .... Maybe there was some substance in Tusks remarks after all. Will May move her red lines? Ministers Think A Permanent Customs Union With The EU Is The Price For Solving The Backstop

          https://www.buzzfeed.com/amphtml/ale...ith-the-eu-is?
          STATE of these ****ers.

          "We'll agree to something bigger, as long as it's not legally binding and we can renege on it".

          "We will not walk in fear, one of another. We will not be driven into an age of unreason if we dig deep into our history and remember we are not descended from fearful men" Edward R Murrow

          "Little by little, we have been brought into the present condition in which we are able neither to tolerate the evils from which we suffer, nor the remedies we need to cure them." - Livy


          "I think that progress has been made by two flames that have always been burning in the human heart. The flame of anger against injustice and the flame of hope that you can build a better world" - Tony Benn

          Comment


            The Backstop is there 'till something better is found that prevents a Hard Border.

            Staying in the Customs Union would prevent a Hard Border so it would supercede the Backstop, wouldn't it?

            Comment


              From the article -
              Two prominent Brexiteers told BuzzFeed News a commitment to some form of customs union in the political declaration would be preferable to the backstop.

              “We cannot leave the backstop. A permanent customs union you could leave,” said one, referring to the fact any commitment to a customs union would come in the non-legally binding political declaration, rather than the legally-binding withdrawal agreement.

              A second agreed, arguing that a future prime minister could remove the UK from its commitment to a customs union and seek a looser free trade deal: “With the political declaration it doesn’t have the same legal weight. A different person in charge could get us out.”
              Tis but a scratch.

              Comment


                Originally posted by mr chips View Post
                From the article -
                Two prominent Brexiteers told BuzzFeed News a commitment to some form of customs union in the political declaration would be preferable to the backstop.

                “We cannot leave the backstop. A permanent customs union you could leave,” said one, referring to the fact any commitment to a customs union would come in the non-legally binding political declaration, rather than the legally-binding withdrawal agreement.

                A second agreed, arguing that a future prime minister could remove the UK from its commitment to a customs union and seek a looser free trade deal: “With the political declaration it doesn’t have the same legal weight. A different person in charge could get us out.”
                Christ on a bike
                "It’s not the team you support, it’s the club you should support. The team on the pitch will ebb and flow because that’s the nature of sport. No team has ever been successful decade on decade. The club has the history and that’s the passion you should have."

                Comment


                  Originally posted by Piquet View Post
                  The Backstop is there 'till something better is found that prevents a Hard Border.

                  Staying in the Customs Union would prevent a Hard Border so it would supercede the Backstop, wouldn't it?
                  The backstop doesn’t even come into play unless, in the transition period, the Uk and EU can’t agree a deal that prevents a hard border.


                  The Brexiteers objection is to an arrangement that’s not even supposed to happen.

                  "We will not walk in fear, one of another. We will not be driven into an age of unreason if we dig deep into our history and remember we are not descended from fearful men" Edward R Murrow

                  "Little by little, we have been brought into the present condition in which we are able neither to tolerate the evils from which we suffer, nor the remedies we need to cure them." - Livy


                  "I think that progress has been made by two flames that have always been burning in the human heart. The flame of anger against injustice and the flame of hope that you can build a better world" - Tony Benn

                  Comment


                    Originally posted by scotscor View Post

                    Supposedly they can't get WTO levels without an agreement from all nations in the WTO, not likely for years. With no border in nordieland there could be a lot of wheelbarrows crossing the border
                    Most favoured nation is in fact bottom of the heap - a friend described it as a title to make people feel good about themselves. But you are right that there seems to be some kind of quirk that under a transition they can have free trade with the EU without having to offer same terms to everyone else in the absence of a free trade agreement. But with a no deal, they are out, and if they offer EU any terms they will have to offer it to everyone else.

                    Comment


                      Originally posted by mr chips View Post
                      Although all we'd bothered with since about November was to buy a few extras each time we shopped in terms of flour/dried pasta/tinned food etc, we are now, incredibly, starting to plan how we can stock up in a bigger way given the increased likelihood of the the Tories engineering a crash out and taking everyone in NI with them. Food, fuel, meds, even hygiene/sanitation - we now have to prepare for all these to either jump in price or become harder to acquire, and are trying to figure out how many months' worth we can afford to buy before the end of March. Just ordered a refill of home heating oil, and have to think in terms of stuff we can freeze plus basics like loo roll, toothpaste, even soap. I also have to talk to the GP about getting a longer-term prescription for a couple of essential meds, i.e. several months' worth.

                      If anyone had told me they were thinking along these lines even last summer, I'd probably have made a sarcastic comment about tinfoil hats, but here we are. It just beggars belief that we have to think in these terms in this day & age. Thankfully we have a garden where I've been growing fruit & veg for the past number of years anyway - never thought I might end up doing so out of necessity rather than by choice.
                      I am reminded of this - https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=_bTKb_X7Hx8

                      And yes, get the meds although my feeling is down South we will be in far more danger as most supplies come from the UK based supply chains, and expect that the meds will stick there.
                      Last edited by The Last Stand; 30th-January-2019, 19:38.

                      Comment


                        Originally posted by Balla Boy View Post

                        The backstop doesn’t even come into play unless, in the transition period, the Uk and EU can’t agree a deal that prevents a hard border.


                        The Brexiteers objection is to an arrangement that’s not even supposed to happen.
                        Except they don't really care if that happens. They are not rational human beings. They don't care if this brings poverty or suffering. the same class who have sent millions to die in war, And Corbyn is propping them up.

                        Comment


                          already happening. I went to get my month's meds a couple of weeks back, was told one of them is not available (they offered an alternative). I tried two different local pharmacies to find the same situation each time. I was told that some drugs are just not coming into Ireland in sufficient volume.

                          Comment


                            Originally posted by The Last Stand View Post

                            Most favoured nation is in fact bottom of the heap - a friend described it as a title to make people feel good about themselves. But you are right that there seems to be some kind of quirk that under a transition they can have free trade with the EU without having to offer same terms to everyone else in the absence of a free trade agreement. But with a no deal, they are out, and if they offer EU any terms they will have to offer it to everyone else.
                            Most favoured nation means they need to treat everyone equally. So, for example, if they say they will not impose tarriffs on goods coming in from the EU, they have to do the same for goods coming from everywhere. Note the WTO doesn't police this, they only act when anotber country complains about different tarriffs for the same goods.

                            Most favoured nation is also a massive issue for the EU, as if it gave the UK a better deal than say Canada, then under most favoured nation the Canadians could rightly ask for the same tarriffs to be applied to their goods.

                            From reading around there are only a handful of countries like South Sudan trading on WTO only - pretty much everyone else has bilateral trade agreements in place with multiple countries.

                            WTO is possibly the worse option out there, but the ultra libertians in the Tory party love it because it's the ultimate free market....
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                            Comment



                              The confusion is that there's 2 forms of MFN.

                              There's MFN in WTO terms. That should be called "No most favoured nation", really. It means that unless you have an explicit free trade agreement in place, everyone gets the same terms.


                              The second form of MFN is as a clause within Free Trade Deals. It's a future proofing clause.

                              It means that if, say, the EU signs a deal with country X that includes a 10% tariff, they can put an MFN clause in that deal. The MFN clause means that if that country then signs a deal with the US for 5% tariff, the EU's terms change automatically. It permanently locks the MFN country in at the 'best price'.


                              It impacts on Brexit in two ways. Firstly, it means that the Brexiteers are talking nonsense when they say that the UK could unilaterally hold its tariffs with the EU at zero under WTO. They could only do that if they did for the rest of the world, which would wipe out swathes of industry and agriculture.

                              The second is that, contrary to the propaganda, the UK can't get "better terms" from most of the EU's trade partners.

                              The EU's treaties with Canada, South Korea, Japan, CARIFORUM and Mexico all have MFN clauses in them. Those partners cannot offer the UK better terms than the EU without multilateralising that to the EU. Which is a big drag on UK negotiations.

                              It also means that if the EU strikes a trade deal with the UK, the terms with those other trading partners form the floor in terms of where the EU can go.

                              "We will not walk in fear, one of another. We will not be driven into an age of unreason if we dig deep into our history and remember we are not descended from fearful men" Edward R Murrow

                              "Little by little, we have been brought into the present condition in which we are able neither to tolerate the evils from which we suffer, nor the remedies we need to cure them." - Livy


                              "I think that progress has been made by two flames that have always been burning in the human heart. The flame of anger against injustice and the flame of hope that you can build a better world" - Tony Benn

                              Comment


                                That's very enlightening BB, my knowledge of WTO is severely limited! Thank you for clarifying. Now, if the British media could only copy & paste....

                                Comment

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