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Brexit referendum and negotiations 2016-19

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    Originally posted by KerryRed View Post
    There seems to be a gradual swing towards Remain according to polls. Though the aren’t 100% reliable as shown with Brexit & the US election. It’s most probably because leavers are generally an older generation, and while remainers are generally young, rather then people changing there minds. Looks like the trend will continue to go towards remain as time goes on.

    POLL - Support for Remain highest since referendum with big 12-pt gap

    Remain - 56%

    Leave - 44%

    Source: YouGov poll taken after Tuesday's defeat for May's deal. Commissioned by People's Vote but conducted independently
    Jesus fella, the older voters are dying but not that fast! Not until Brexit happens anyway.

    Comment


      Originally posted by The Last Stand View Post

      Mea Culpa as I had not seen polls that they were ahead. It is the lack of leadership and championing of a policy (they go hand in hand) that is frustrating. It seems to be calculated indecision and Brexit of some sort seems to be his instinct.
      Looking again You Gob still has Lanour behind so not quite straightforward that Labour would win that election - and probably not with the same fudged position on Brexit https://yougov.co.uk/topics/politics...bour-34-13-14-

      Comment


        Originally posted by The Last Stand View Post

        Mea Culpa as I had not seen polls that they were ahead. It is the lack of leadership and championing of a policy (they go hand in hand) that is frustrating. It seems to be calculated indecision and Brexit of some sort seems to be his instinct.
        It is by no means certain who would win. A right wing Tory leader with a simple anti EU slogan and a promise to talk tough in ''fresh' negotiaionsn could easily win with the Sun cheering from the sidelines.

        Currently because of the general chaos I don't think anyone wants .a GE. If Corbyn lost again clearly he would be have to resign.

        Another week or so of muddle before some sort of no deal consensus emerges....hopefully.


        ​​​​​​#GiveLeinsterTheHCupNow

        Originally Posted by mr chips
        AG gets the responses he does because he is a journalist..

        Comment


          It's all set up for the softest of Brexit's 'backed ' by a late consensus, or a second vote likely resulting in a string remain mandate.

          either way the UK will be deferring article 50 now, as all options are logistically impossible without doing that at least.
          ____________________________________________
          Munster were great when they were Munster.

          alas they are just north munster now.......
          ____________________________________________

          Comment


            Originally posted by The Last Stand View Post

            Looking again You Gob still has Labour behind so not quite straightforward that Labour would win that election - and probably not with the same fudged position on Brexit https://yougov.co.uk/topics/politics...bour-34-13-14-
            The latest poll was carried out by The Daily Express and Com Res last Monday / Tuesday.
            Labour 39%
            Tories 37%

            https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Opinio..._election#2019


            Although Labour are polling high (as are the Tories) the real issue is that the Lib Dems are polling so poorly.
            Given that they are the main pro EU party, that in itself says a lot.
            Please support Milford Hospice. Click here to donate.

            Comment


              Originally posted by fitzy73 View Post

              The latest poll was carried out by The Daily Express and Com Res last Monday / Tuesday.
              Labour 39%
              Tories 37%

              https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Opinio..._election#2019


              Although Labour are polling high (as are the Tories) the real issue is that the Lib Dems are polling so poorly.
              Given that they are the main pro EU party, that in itself says a lot.
              I'm not sure what that says. The British have a strange antipathy to a 3rd party and given the mixed views in both Labour and Tories to Brexit judging the LibDems on the sole issue of their antiBrexit position may not be sensible.
              ​​​​​​#GiveLeinsterTheHCupNow

              Originally Posted by mr chips
              AG gets the responses he does because he is a journalist..

              Comment


                Article in New York Times re Brexit and British ruling class:



                The Malign Incompetence of the British Ruling Class

                Describing Britain’s calamitous exit from its Indian empire in 1947, the novelist Paul Scott wrote that in India the British “came to the end of themselves as they were” — that is, to the end of their exalted idea about themselves. Scott was among those shocked by how hastily and ruthlessly the British, who had ruled India for more than a century, condemned it to fragmentation and anarchy; how Louis Mountbatten, accurately described by the right-wing historian Andrew Roberts as a “mendacious, intellectually limited hustler,” came to preside, as the last British viceroy of India, over the destiny of some 400 million people.

                Britain’s rupture with the European Union is proving to be another act of moral dereliction by the country’s rulers. The Brexiteers, pursuing a fantasy of imperial-era strength and self-sufficiency, have repeatedly revealed their hubris, mulishness and ineptitude over the past two years. Though originally a “Remainer,” Prime Minister Theresa May has matched their arrogant obduracy, imposing a patently unworkable timetable of two years on Brexit and laying down red lines that undermined negotiations with Brussels and doomed her deal to resoundingly bipartisan rejection this week in Parliament.


                Such a pattern of egotistic and destructive behavior by the British elite flabbergasts many people today. But it was already manifest seven decades ago during Britain’s rash exit from India.

                Mountbatten, derided as “Master of Disaster” in British naval circles, was a representative member of a small group of upper- and middle-class British men from which the imperial masters of Asia and Africa were recruited. Abysmally equipped for their immense responsibilities, they were nevertheless allowed by Britain’s brute imperial power to blunder through the world — a “world of whose richness and subtlety,” as E.M. Forster wrote in “Notes on the English Character,” they could “have no conception.”

                Forster blamed Britain’s political fiascos on its privately educated men, callow beneficiaries of the country’s elitist public school system. These eternal schoolboys whose “weight is out of all proportion” to their numbers are certainly overrepresented among Tories. They have today plunged Britain into its worst crisis, exposing its incestuous and self-serving ruling class like never before.

                From David Cameron, who recklessly gambled his country’s future on a referendum in order to isolate some whingers in his Conservative party, to the opportunistic Boris Johnson, who jumped on the Brexit bandwagon to secure the prime ministerial chair once warmed by his role model Winston Churchill, and the top-hatted, theatrically retro Jacob Rees-Mogg, whose fund management company has set up an office within the European Union even as he vehemently scorns it, the British political class has offered to the world an astounding spectacle of mendacious, intellectually limited hustlers.

                Even a columnist for The Economist, an organ of the British elite, now professes dismay over “Oxford chums” who coast through life on “bluff rather than expertise.” “Britain,” the magazine belatedly lamented last month, “is governed by a self-involved clique that rewards group membership above competence and self-confidence above expertise.” In Brexit, the British “chumocracy,” the column declared, “has finally met its Waterloo.”

                It is actually more accurate, for those invoking British history, to say that partition — the British Empire’s ruinous exit strategy — has come home. In a grotesque irony, borders imposed in 1921 on Ireland, England’s first colony, have proved to be the biggest stumbling block for the English Brexiteers chasing imperial virility. Moreover, Britain itself faces the prospect of partition if Brexit, a primarily English demand, is achieved and Scottish nationalists renew their call for independence.

                It is a measure of English Brexiteers’ political acumen that they were initially oblivious to the volatile Irish question and contemptuous of the Scottish one. Ireland was cynically partitioned to ensure that Protestant settlers outnumber native Catholics in one part of the country. The division provoked decades of violence and consumed thousands of lives. It was partly healed in 1998, when a peace agreement removed the need for security and customs checks along the British-imposed partition line.

                The re-imposition of a customs and immigration regime along Britain’s only land border with the European Union was always likely to be resisted with violence. But Brexiteers, awakening late to this ominous possibility, have tried to deny it. A leaked recording revealed Mr. Johnson scorning concerns about the border as “pure millennium bug stuff.”

                Politicians and journalists in Ireland are understandably aghast over the aggressive ignorance of English Brexiteers. Business people everywhere are outraged by their cavalier disregard for the economic consequences of new borders. But none of this would surprise anyone who knows of the unconscionable breeziness with which the British ruling class first drew lines through Asia and Africa and then doomed the people living across them to endless suffering.

                The malign incompetence of the Brexiteers was precisely prefigured during Britain’s exit from India in 1947, most strikingly in the lack of orderly preparation for it. The British government had announced that India would have independence by June 1948. In the first week of June 1947, however, Mountbatten suddenly proclaimed that the transfer of power would happen on Aug. 15, 1947 — a “ludicrously early date,” as he himself blurted out. In July, a British lawyer named Cyril Radcliffe was entrusted with the task of drawing new boundaries of a country he had never previously visited. ....... (more in article)



                https://www.nytimes.com/2019/01/17/o...unday%20Review
                "There are a lot of points that we’ve left behind and this is with a young group. That probably tells you what they’re capable of and that they’re a very good side.

                Probably next year or the year after next they will take some stopping"

                Anthony Foley, May 2016. Axel RIP

                Comment


                  Originally posted by whimpersnap View Post

                  Jesus fella, the older voters are dying but not that fast! Not until Brexit happens anyway.
                  Male 18-24 61% 39%
                  Male 25-49 53% 47%
                  Male 50-64 39% 61%
                  Male 65+ 38% 62%
                  Female 18-24 80% 20%
                  Female 25-49 54% 46%
                  Female 50-64 40% 60%
                  Female 65+ 34% 66%
                  Breakdown of age & gender demographics for Brexit vote.

                  Remain were polling ahead of Leave by 4 points coming into the vote (52-48%). However there was major complacency on the Remain side after a very poorly run campaign. Leave was quite the opposite having ran a very effective all be it unethical campaign. Full of passion with a strong message of “taking back control”, that resonated strongly with the North England & Wales. Whose economies never recovered from the closure of the coal/steel industries. Tapping into people who had become so disillusioned by offering change who never voted before. While remain politications tended to take a very impassionate logical approach. Probably too careful about upsetting there constituency.

                  On the day it swung 4 points and Leave won with 52%. In this total though, it must be said, were a lot of protest votes towards the government, wanting to run the vote as close as possible. Remember watching a lot of interviews with people who instantly regretted there decision.

                  Presuming that the original poll was in fact correct, which it is line with recent polls. Which 54-46% in favour of Remain only a little over a year ago. Now 56-44%. And remain simply didn’t mobilise remain supporting voters as they should. Assuming that people don’t get more anti-EU as they get older. And it is more of an idealogical opinion. And that the trend of younger voters continue being pro-remain. Which is another assumption I know. And nothing major happens to change opinion. With death rates of 2 1/2 years of voters, strong pro leave, being replaced with strong pro remain. Particularly amongst female voters. With a increasing population. In 5 years time it would suggest over 60-40% Remain. If not much sooner. The younger generation who now are able to vote, who are strong remainers, are basically replacing strong leavers, the Leave base.

                  Essentially this speil suggests Leave will eventually lose. Even though the won the referendum, the numbers will everually win, even if they leave, they’ll eventually rejoin. And fighting for Brexit particularly for politicians/parties is folly. And will be punished long term.
                  Last edited by KerryRed; 18th-January-2019, 15:24.
                  "The PRO12 is our domestic league, it's what you earn your bread and butter from; it's what pays the bills. We need to broaden our emphasis and get an understanding in Irish rugby that the domestic league from now on is most important and that's what qualifies you now for Europe.'' Garrett Fitzgerald, CEO Munster

                  Comment


                    https://www.rte.ie/news/newslens/201...it-billboards/
                    I am the million man.

                    Comment


                      Fantastic efforts. Too often these days what was said 10 minutes ago is already forgotten.
                      The whole world cries out peace, freedom and a few less fat bastards eating all the pie.

                      Comment


                        My take as of today.... Rees Mogg softening a little and realising the hard line will end up in remain as no deal will kill the conservatives for decades. Boris looking like a Dick and positioning himself against the rest of perceived wisdom like a twit. The message reaching the DUP that not only are agri and business serious about a no deal scenario but that in fact a hard border will lead to a united Ireland (and also realising Leo is a bluffer)... could mean two scenarios:

                        Scenario A. Variation of the current WA

                        Some pre-cooked compromises from the EU this weekend (lots of noises but little change in reality) which will mean that a WA that is far more palatable than a Corbyn Govt is agreed - and the Brexiteers will live to fight another day (greater divergence over time)... and the U.K. will leave even if it is softer than some want and harder than others want. The strength and unified EU position has surprised them and they naively think it is just the Paddies when the reality is that many EU countries want the U.K. out because they block the federalist agenda and they can do all this in the name of solidarity.

                        Scenaro B - an even lighter Brexit (Norway style)

                        May needs to get enough votes in the HOC which means cross-party support. The DUP is realising that a hard Brexit will destroy it as a party given the opposition it faces on the ground in NI and the prospect it could harden support for a United Ireland and is now leaning towards a customs union. Labour is split between people’s vote and a soft Brexit with a. Customs union and access to the single market. If May can get the remain element of the tories and the lighter Brexiteers on board plus the DUP and an element of Labour she may get the numbers for such a deal which is likely to be palatable to the EU.

                        Reality is that no one knows - interesting times ahead.
                        Last edited by The Last Stand; 19th-January-2019, 08:06. Reason: Further reflections

                        Comment


                          Labour’s dilemma:

                          https://www.theguardian.com/politics...e_iOSApp_Other

                          Comment


                            Originally posted by the plastic paddy View Post
                            I don't think it's as big a dilemma as the headline suggests. 30% of Labour voters voted for Brexit so it's no shock that some or most of those voters would move elsewhere if Labour back a PV. The article also seems to be suggesting that they'd pick up nearly as many votes from other parties as they'd lose.

                            I actually think Corbyn's best shot at a Labour majority is backing a PV. The problem being that he wants Britain out.
                            "It’s not the team you support, it’s the club you should support. The team on the pitch will ebb and flow because that’s the nature of sport. No team has ever been successful decade on decade. The club has the history and that’s the passion you should have."

                            Comment


                              Originally posted by Jenta View Post

                              I don't think it's as big a dilemma as the headline suggests. 30% of Labour voters voted for Brexit so it's no shock that some or most of those voters would move elsewhere if Labour back a PV. The article also seems to be suggesting that they'd pick up nearly as many votes from other parties as they'd lose.

                              I actually think Corbyn's best shot at a Labour majority is backing a PV. The problem being that he wants Britain out.
                              I really don't think that's the problem. I don't think Labour's position is being stymied by Corbyn being secretly committed to Brexit.

                              I think the problem is that he's quite agnostic about it.

                              People assessing Labour's current position in the polls etc are oblivious to the driving mindset that's at the core of his leadership group. The Labour Left hasn't been this close to power in 40 years.

                              They see this as possibly a once in a lifetime opportunity for a group who have spent their entire political careers on the margins of British politics.

                              Brexit for Corbyn, I think, is a distraction.

                              The calculus of the Milne line (and again it's just an informed guess) is that if a soft rather than hard Brexit emerges, then the focus of UK politics will switch back to domestic issues and those Labour remainers will vote Labour anyway.


                              Personally, I think it's a miscalculation. I think that in particular they've underestimated the impact of the Brexit issue on the youth vote.

                              But the confounding issue here is that Corbyn, ultimately, is seeking to triangulate on the issue with a view solely to gaining a left wing government in the UK. And he'll take that in or out of the EU.
                              "We will not walk in fear, one of another. We will not be driven into an age of unreason if we dig deep into our history and remember we are not descended from fearful men" Edward R Murrow

                              "Little by little, we have been brought into the present condition in which we are able neither to tolerate the evils from which we suffer, nor the remedies we need to cure them." - Livy


                              "I think that progress has been made by two flames that have always been burning in the human heart. The flame of anger against injustice and the flame of hope that you can build a better world" - Tony Benn

                              Comment


                                Originally posted by Balla Boy View Post

                                I really don't think that's the problem. I don't think Labour's position is being stymied by Corbyn being secretly committed to Brexit.

                                I think the problem is that he's quite agnostic about it.

                                People assessing Labour's current position in the polls etc are oblivious to the driving mindset that's at the core of his leadership group. The Labour Left hasn't been this close to power in 40 years.

                                They see this as possibly a once in a lifetime opportunity for a group who have spent their entire political careers on the margins of British politics.

                                Brexit for Corbyn, I think, is a distraction.

                                The calculus of the Milne line (and again it's just an informed guess) is that if a soft rather than hard Brexit emerges, then the focus of UK politics will switch back to domestic issues and those Labour remainers will vote Labour anyway.


                                Personally, I think it's a miscalculation. I think that in particular they've underestimated the impact of the Brexit issue on the youth vote.

                                But the confounding issue here is that Corbyn, ultimately, is seeking to triangulate on the issue with a view solely to gaining a left wing government in the UK. And he'll take that in or out of the EU.
                                I'd agree that Corbyn's primary goal is a left wing government but I think you underestimate how much the Labour left sees the EU as a barrier to effective left wing governance. Despite its rebranding over the past couple of years the EU is still an economically neo-liberal enterprise. I think Corbyn recognises that a Norway model would make his manifesto far easier to implement, given that restrictive rules on state aid would be out of the way.
                                "It’s not the team you support, it’s the club you should support. The team on the pitch will ebb and flow because that’s the nature of sport. No team has ever been successful decade on decade. The club has the history and that’s the passion you should have."

                                Comment

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