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Brexit referendum and negotiations 2016-19

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    Just looking at the figures and it could be 200 votes.

    The phone ins on UK radio this morning have been corkers. Lots of very very angry white older men.
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      Originally posted by scotscor View Post
      Corbyn for one
      OK, I see your logic.

      I still think Corbyn will get to a stage where he as to whip the Labour party to vote in favour of something. I can't tell whether or not he has played a political blinder so far by being non-committal or if he lives in a fantasy world where May get Brexit delivered, gets ousted and then he gets into No 10 afterwards to deliver his socialist utopia. However whichever it is he won't be able to muddle on into next week without voting FOR something and carrying 99% of Labour with him (Hoey et all don't count - their rebellion is assured and has zero impact on his leadership).

      Obviously the ideal for him is a vote of no confidence in the Gov't, but it seem unlikely he can win that and afterwards he'll have to come out and say that he is explicitly in favour of n-deal or he is explicitly in favour of one of the remaining options outside of a GE. That is most likely a 2nd ref.

      Comment


        Originally posted by HenryFitz View Post

        Not the DUP, the MPs who voted against the government last week. If they see no deal being seriously considered, they will vote the government out.
        She has made it clear that it is her Deal or Remaining. No Deal is not an option. And I don’t think she is bluffing...EDIT and I don’t think she is going to give the arseholes the chance to take over and take everyone over the cliff. It will have been a long time coming but I actually think I might win my bet with AG and Brexit might not happen.
        Last edited by the plastic paddy; 14th-January-2019, 13:11.

        Comment


          Originally posted by HenryFitz View Post

          Not the DUP, the MPs who voted against the government last week. If they see no deal being seriously considered, they will vote the government out.
          I'm not sure that it is in the interests of Soubry, Clarke, Grieve et al to vote May out without a plan for what happens after. The ensuing chaos makes the path to their objective (People's Vote) less clear. A House rising in last January/early February for a general election in late February/early March would have a high probability of assuring a no-deal outcome as there may be no government in place to extend or revoke A50. There interests lie in pushing Corbyn within the existing parliamentary arithmetic.

          Comment


            Originally posted by AwayFromHome View Post

            OK, I see your logic.

            I still think Corbyn will get to a stage where he as to whip the Labour party to vote in favour of something. I can't tell whether or not he has played a political blinder so far by being non-committal or if he lives in a fantasy world where May get Brexit delivered, gets ousted and then he gets into No 10 afterwards to deliver his socialist utopia. However whichever it is he won't be able to muddle on into next week without voting FOR something and carrying 99% of Labour with him (Hoey et all don't count - their rebellion is assured and has zero impact on his leadership).

            Obviously the ideal for him is a vote of no confidence in the Gov't, but it seem unlikely he can win that and afterwards he'll have to come out and say that he is explicitly in favour of n-deal or he is explicitly in favour of one of the remaining options outside of a GE. That is most likely a 2nd ref.
            Supposing that May's deal gets voted down, the Labour party vote of confidence fails and JC calls for a second referendum (a lot of ifs there) is there a majority in the HoC for a second referendum? I'm not entirely sure there is.

            And supposing they get as far as a vote on a 2nd referendum and it fails ... What then?!
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              Originally posted by fitzy73 View Post

              Supposing that May's deal gets voted down, the Labour party vote of confidence fails and JC calls for a second referendum (a lot of ifs there) is there a majority in the HoC for a second referendum? I'm not entirely sure there is.

              And supposing they get as far as a vote on a 2nd referendum and it fails ... What then?!
              Many ifs but all reasonable ones to be fair. May's deal is almost certain to be voted down. Lab no-confidence also and then the Labour conference outcome would start to bite and a 2nd ref becomes likely to be policy so I would guess all of your ifs combined have a probably of more than 66%. My personal views (and this is what I was asking scotscor last week) is that the same group of 300-310 who defeated the government last week would do so again on a 2nd referendum.

              The next if becomes the problem - will the government move a motion to pass legislation for a second referendum after that vote? I'm not sure about that - May would have some political ground to stand on by saying she feels more bound by the 2016 referendum than by a humble address. And in addition she would have the threat to her own centre to say that she is willing to resign and have the Tory party taken over by Johnston or Gove. In that scenario she would most likely seek to extend A50 and would have to try for a renegotiation (before doing that she would have to put No-deal to a vote in parliament as coverage). She may also choose to put no brexit to a vote in parliament to expose Corbyn but her advisors will probably stop her from doing that on the risk she would lose (She is bloody minded though and I'd still have that as an outcome with a greater than 5% chance).

              Comment


                Like you I think Mays deal will fail and JCs confidence motion will fail.

                However after that it's a landmine.

                My worry, which I've had all along, is that there is no clear support for anything. Given the vacuum that exists between Mays ears, she could trigger a GE to wind the clock down. I know people insist that Starmer won't let that happen but if she privately reaches out to JC and offers a GE with no A50 extension, he will take it.
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                  It really comes down to May. In my head she is a small bit spiteful. She'd almost go No-deal to piss off the remainers and no brexit to piss off the ERG/DUP if her own deal fails. I think there would be a majority for a delay to article 50, I don't see a majority for anything else.
                  Seven social sins: politics without principles, wealth without work, pleasure without conscience, knowledge without character, commerce without morality, science without humanity, and worship without sacrifice



                  Comment


                    The day by day assessment is obviously a damning indictment of the British establishment in and of itself but when you zoom out and look and the bigger picture the scale of the incompetence is mind boggling:

                    Firstly, the people who are talking today about Norway for now or Canada plus plus plus should all be tied up with a very strong piece of rope and pushed overboard on the Hull to Zeebruge ferry for the good of the overall genepool. Whatever future relationship that you want there needs to be a withdrawal agreement. No withdrawal agreement - no functioning future relationship for many years. That should be clear to primary school children nevermind elected members of parliament some of whom have served as cabinet ministers and some of whom have been around European and British politics for their ENTIRE lives (I'm looking at you Stephen Kinnock).

                    Perhaps dealing with the complete denial of reality evidenced above explains why the Maybot can't seem to reboot herself. However even still it is astonishing that she should have arrived at this point this late in the day. Since triggering A50 it has been made clear to her that a WA would need to deal with money, Irish border and citizens rights. Frankly it doesn't seem that you could get any majority to block any of the citizens rights issues so that can be discounted as a short term problem (there are of course hard choices to make here but my point is that she was always going to get a majority in the HoC for whatever set of choice she made on this). Also the EU does not have a single voice on this because many of the relevant rules are determined at national level, so the outcome on the EU side was always going to be to generally replicate whatever the UK decided to do (i.e. making the softest choice for the EU citizens in UK was always good leverage for her in the negotiations).

                    Since her disastrous general election it has been clear that she had a problem with the DUP and the ERG. The DUP would never accept differentiation between GB and NI. The ERG would never accept staying in CU. The ERG would also never accept paying money (at the very least not until the future relationship was clear). Therefore for more than 18 months it has been fully clear to her that there was no deal that both the DUP and the ERG could vote for. In seeing this she decided to pursue the only deal that the BOTH could vote against AND failed to reach out to the opposition to find support for that. Absolutely fupping amazing, There was clearly majority support in the HoC for delivering Brexit based on paying the divorce money, granting existing EU citizens residing in the UK permanent right to remain subject to no criminal convictions, and avoiding a hard border in Ireland by keeping NI in the single market and softening this by keeping the UK in some form of customs union. That fact that we have arrived at this stage of the process in this state of affairs is just astonishing. History will not look kindly on her. JRM, BoJo and Arlene will be long forgotten by the average person in 30-40 years but May's incompetence will live on in infamy for many many decades to come.

                    Comment


                      Originally posted by fitzy73 View Post
                      Like you I think Mays deal will fail and JCs confidence motion will fail.

                      However after that it's a landmine.

                      My worry, which I've had all along, is that there is no clear support for anything. Given the vacuum that exists between Mays ears, she could trigger a GE to wind the clock down. I know people insist that Starmer won't let that happen but if she privately reaches out to JC and offers a GE with no A50 extension, he will take it.
                      I think the EU would finagle a way to allow A50 to be suspended for an election to happen in Britain, even if the Brits didn't ask for it.

                      They'd just be helping the people the same way they helped us by forcing a bailout on us
                      Munster – Champions of Europe 2006, 2008, 2020.

                      Comment


                        It seems Michael Gove has said that the Labour spokesperson on Brexit has described Labour's Brexit Policy using "a word which in Spanish translates as 'cojones' and in English rhymes with 'rollocks'."

                        He further alluded to certain " distinguished citizens in this country [ a reference to the Speaker's wife] who have put on their cars a poster or sticker saying '******** to Brexit' - but we now know from Labour's own frontbench that their official Brexit position is ********."

                        He also thanked the Labour Spokesman for pointing out the "testicular nature" of the policy.

                        When asked, the Speaker stated that in his opinion, " there was nothing disorderly about the use of the word - I think it is a matter of taste."

                        Comment


                          May loses by 230 (432 v 202). Corbyn has tabled his no-confidence vote, for debate tomorrow. Let the games begin.
                          Tis but a scratch.

                          Comment


                            May's deal voted down by 432-202

                            Corbyn's tabled a vote of no confidence for tomorrow, co-sponsored by SNP, Lib Dems, Green, Plaid Cymru.

                            Down to Tory rebels and DUP now.
                            "We will not walk in fear, one of another. We will not be driven into an age of unreason if we dig deep into our history and remember we are not descended from fearful men" Edward R Murrow

                            "Little by little, we have been brought into the present condition in which we are able neither to tolerate the evils from which we suffer, nor the remedies we need to cure them." - Livy


                            "I think that progress has been made by two flames that have always been burning in the human heart. The flame of anger against injustice and the flame of hope that you can build a better world" - Tony Benn

                            Comment


                              Must have been over 100 Conservative MPs who voted against May's deal.

                              Comment


                                Biggest Govt defeat in UK history, apparently. But Kuenssberg tweeting that DUP will back Govt in NCV tomorrow.
                                "We will not walk in fear, one of another. We will not be driven into an age of unreason if we dig deep into our history and remember we are not descended from fearful men" Edward R Murrow

                                "Little by little, we have been brought into the present condition in which we are able neither to tolerate the evils from which we suffer, nor the remedies we need to cure them." - Livy


                                "I think that progress has been made by two flames that have always been burning in the human heart. The flame of anger against injustice and the flame of hope that you can build a better world" - Tony Benn

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