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Brexit referendum and negotiations 2016-19

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    The mood music seems to indicate that the revocation of article 50 is a long way from being a unilateral competence. Sure as I am that the ECJ are beyond political influence (!?!?) the council have argued, strongly, that revocation has to be by unanimous agreement of the 28. I suspect that could come with more than a couple of conditions attached. The idea the UK can hold a second referendum, Remain win narrowly and the UK can waltz back into the club without conditions is fanciful, to say the least. The idea I have seen from the likes of Campbell that the UK are going to be at the centre of reforming the EU, should they vote to Remain, is insulting.

    Comment


      Originally posted by the plastic paddy View Post
      The mood music seems to indicate that the revocation of article 50 is a long way from being a unilateral competence. Sure as I am that the ECJ are beyond political influence (!?!?) the council have argued, strongly, that revocation has to be by unanimous agreement of the 28. I suspect that could come with more than a couple of conditions attached. The idea the UK can hold a second referendum, Remain win narrowly and the UK can waltz back into the club without conditions is fanciful, to say the least. The idea I have seen from the likes of Campbell that the UK are going to be at the centre of reforming the EU, should they vote to Remain, is insulting.
      Have you heard about the Lisbon Treaty,? We voted wrong the first time so they asked us to have another go and vote right the second time
      I am the million man.

      Comment


        Originally posted by Cowboy View Post

        Have you heard about the Lisbon Treaty,? We voted wrong the first time so they asked us to have another go and vote right the second time
        We could have told them to feck off again. It's not like we didn't have a choice.

        Comment


          Originally posted by whimpersnap View Post

          We could have told them to feck off again. It's not like we didn't have a choice.
          Also for the Nice referendum. Both of which, first time out the FF Govt of the day took yes for granted, campaigned poorly, and were the subject to lots of mid-information on non relevant issues such as abortion and neutrality plus the 50/50 rule on broadcasters. Referendums also have an element of kicking the Govt in situ.

          Since then our structures have improved considerably particularly with the referendum commission and the requirement to have balanced information on what people are voting for.

          The first mistake of Cameron was to agree to a referendum (although I suspect he thought a another coalition with Lib Dem’s was on the cards), the second mistake was not to put in place Irish type structures to govern referendum campaigns although 20+ years of mis-information is difficult to reverse, the 3rd mistake was to try to bully the EU 27 on reforms before the vote went (significant concessions were offered but were not easily explainable) - perhaps the smarter thing was to have the referendum and use that as a lever for Reform.

          May has probably achieved the best WA deal possible. However, she has made lots of mistakes on the way. 1) Becoming PM - it should have been given to a hard Brexiteer, 2) calling that election - although the rationale for that was to build a majority to such an extent that the hard brexiteers would have less power, 3) getting into bed with the DUP (the delicate nature of the GFA) could have given a reasonable excuse not to although politics and power trumped common sense.

          She did try to get Brexiteers such as Raab and Davis to be in the hot seat but it seems they were so awful and lazy in the case of Davis to the extent that the other side were running rings around them that She with the civil service led the negotiations.

          It really is a a complete mess. My best guess (right now and the reality is no one knows what will happen) is that they will engineer a way for a false start vote on the deal. It will be struck down and the markets/sterling will take a sizeable hit. Expect stronger messaging from the EU that it is this, stay or crash out. It will then go back to Parliament and will be agreed with the assistance of some Labour MPs from ‘Leave’ constituencies.

          I have been one to hope that sense would prevail, that they would go back to the people and would stay in the EU but alas...

          Comment


            https://www.theguardian.com/politics...are-for-brexit


            Frankfurt has always coveted the London financial services and the Torys/May are in the process of making their dream come through.

            Any Irish living in UK knows the power of London and the individual wealth around the "City", all will be desperate for a 2nd referendum.

            It's akin to flushing £50- notes down the toilet, centuries of dominance and skills.

            Comment


              EU court advocate general has concluded (as many of us suspected they would) that Article 50 can be unilaterally rescinded.

              People’s Vote followed by repeal now by some way the clearest proposition on the table. Unknowns attached to everything else. It will be interesting to see how that plays out.
              "We will not walk in fear, one of another. We will not be driven into an age of unreason if we dig deep into our history and remember we are not descended from fearful men" Edward R Murrow

              "Little by little, we have been brought into the present condition in which we are able neither to tolerate the evils from which we suffer, nor the remedies we need to cure them." - Livy


              "I think that progress has been made by two flames that have always been burning in the human heart. The flame of anger against injustice and the flame of hope that you can build a better world" - Tony Benn

              Comment


                Once the "best available deal" is voted down by Parliament it seems as if there's now a fairly clear path to a second referendum, albeit one they'll have to hurry down.
                "It’s not the team you support, it’s the club you should support. The team on the pitch will ebb and flow because that’s the nature of sport. No team has ever been successful decade on decade. The club has the history and that’s the passion you should have."

                Comment


                  Originally posted by Jenta View Post
                  Once the "best available deal" is voted down by Parliament it seems as if there's now a fairly clear path to a second referendum, albeit one they'll have to hurry down.
                  As the UK AG hurtles towards being held in contempt of Parliament for refusing to share his legal advice to the Govt.

                  The emergent options will be:

                  Call the whole **** show off

                  No Deal

                  May's deal with an indefinite backstop that they can't exit unilaterally and that sees the UK accept Brussels regulation with no representation.

                  The Govts own analysis shows all exit options as economically damaging to the UK, so talk of Dividends will be hard to sustain through a 2nd campaign.

                  The unicorns are exiting the paddock at a rate.

                  "We will not walk in fear, one of another. We will not be driven into an age of unreason if we dig deep into our history and remember we are not descended from fearful men" Edward R Murrow

                  "Little by little, we have been brought into the present condition in which we are able neither to tolerate the evils from which we suffer, nor the remedies we need to cure them." - Livy


                  "I think that progress has been made by two flames that have always been burning in the human heart. The flame of anger against injustice and the flame of hope that you can build a better world" - Tony Benn

                  Comment


                    Originally posted by Balla Boy View Post
                    EU court advocate general has concluded (as many of us suspected they would) that Article 50 can be unilaterally rescinded.

                    People’s Vote followed by repeal now by some way the clearest proposition on the table. Unknowns attached to everything else. It will be interesting to see how that plays out.
                    I wouldn’t be too quick to conclude that the ECJ will follow the advice. EDIT I am not sure that the prodigal returning to the fold would be the best thing for the EU. I also wonder whether the Brexit dividend that is being seen in Ireland might cool very suddenly and many EU states might think there should be a price for Ireland to pay for their unanimous support over the border issues. If the ECJ follows the advice, however, a second vote looks inevitable. I wouldn’t bet the house on Remain though, TM’s Deal is crap relative to Remaining BUT Brexit has always been about immigration and there are plenty of people in the UK who would cheerily cut off their noses to spite their faces for the sake of controlling immigration.
                    Last edited by the plastic paddy; 4th-December-2018, 11:34.

                    Comment


                      It also isn’t inconceivable that TM resigns, is replaced by a new Tory leader who immediately revokes article 50 in order to create “consensus” (or some such ********) about how they are going to actually achieve Brexit.

                      Comment


                        Originally posted by the plastic paddy View Post

                        I wouldn’t be too quick to conclude that the ECJ will follow the advice. EDIT I am not sure that the prodigal returning to the fold would be the best thing for the EU. I also wonder whether the Brexit dividend that is being seen in Ireland might cool very suddenly and many EU states might think there should be a price for Ireland to pay for their unanimous support over the border issues. If the ECJ follows the advice, however, a second vote looks inevitable. I wouldn’t bet the house on Remain though, TM’s Deal is crap relative to Remaining BUT Brexit has always been about immigration and there are plenty of people in the UK who would cheerily cut off their noses to spite their faces for the sake of controlling immigration.
                        A 3 or 4 percent swing and it's done. I think the core Brexit vote isn't large enough. The NHS Bus Believers will drift off, those reassured by promises of an easy FTA will have their doubts. Just demographically, a welter of under 18's will have qualified to vote while a slew of brexiteers will have died.

                        The fervour with which the Brexit core is resisting a 2nd vote tells me that they don't back themselves to repeat their feat a 2nd time.

                        And with good reason, because I think you're underselling what the likes of Cummings achieved.

                        Look at what we now know:

                        There was no consensus in the remain campaign as to what the UKs relationship with the EU would look like post-Exit.

                        There were no models or forecasts that suggested an economic dividend

                        Senior members of the campaign literally didn't know how the EU works


                        Cummings largely conceived a platform that avoided any of those things being discussed. They allowed Farage to blow his dog whistles on another platform while they focussed on delivering the other voters that they knew would be needed to get over the line - people concerned with public services, people concerned at the potential impacts of losing trading relationships with the EU.

                        Senior figures repeatedly insisted that it wasn't a vote on the single market or the customs union.


                        The situation now is that those assurances can no longer be given, all of the Govts models suggest negative economic impact, and the open rancour between those notionally leading the process is plainly visible.


                        And they would basically have to deliver every single vote they won last time out.


                        "We will not walk in fear, one of another. We will not be driven into an age of unreason if we dig deep into our history and remember we are not descended from fearful men" Edward R Murrow

                        "Little by little, we have been brought into the present condition in which we are able neither to tolerate the evils from which we suffer, nor the remedies we need to cure them." - Livy


                        "I think that progress has been made by two flames that have always been burning in the human heart. The flame of anger against injustice and the flame of hope that you can build a better world" - Tony Benn

                        Comment


                          BB, i think you are missing the stiff upper lip side of things. 'Whether I voted yes or no is irrelevant the country voted no, I don't like to be asked twice' types.

                          I remember feeling that way regarding the Lisbon treaty.
                          Seven social sins: politics without principles, wealth without work, pleasure without conscience, knowledge without character, commerce without morality, science without humanity, and worship without sacrifice



                          Comment


                            Originally posted by Balla Boy View Post

                            A 3 or 4 percent swing and it's done. I think the core Brexit vote isn't large enough. The NHS Bus Believers will drift off, those reassured by promises of an easy FTA will have their doubts. Just demographically, a welter of under 18's will have qualified to vote while a slew of brexiteers will have died.

                            The fervour with which the Brexit core is resisting a 2nd vote tells me that they don't back themselves to repeat their feat a 2nd time.

                            And with good reason, because I think you're underselling what the likes of Cummings achieved.

                            Look at what we now know:

                            There was no consensus in the remain campaign as to what the UKs relationship with the EU would look like post-Exit.

                            There were no models or forecasts that suggested an economic dividend

                            Senior members of the campaign literally didn't know how the EU works


                            Cummings largely conceived a platform that avoided any of those things being discussed. They allowed Farage to blow his dog whistles on another platform while they focussed on delivering the other voters that they knew would be needed to get over the line - people concerned with public services, people concerned at the potential impacts of losing trading relationships with the EU.

                            Senior figures repeatedly insisted that it wasn't a vote on the single market or the customs union.


                            The situation now is that those assurances can no longer be given, all of the Govts models suggest negative economic impact, and the open rancour between those notionally leading the process is plainly visible.


                            And they would basically have to deliver every single vote they won last time out.

                            Being forced to vote again? I can see already how the Mail. The Sun and The Telegraph will paint that,

                            Let's say Leavers have a core vote of 40%, an underestimate IMHO. People who have seen the cost, understand the risks and still are of the opinion that Britain is better off outside. That means that there's a battle on for the last 10% or so of the electorate. That's not unbridgeable.

                            The arguments about staying in are fairly clear now. But if Brexit is an assertion of English nationalism, as many think, then the arguments for leaving will again be primarily emotional and unconnected to experts and trading figures. The same austerity that afflicts the English experience of life is practiced across Europe and is enforced by the EU.

                            I think the truth about the EU can be just as damning, perhaps moreso, than those casual lies on the side of a bus.

                            Big business doesn't have a vote. And bigger remain votes in NI, Wales and Scotland won't swing it.

                            Asking the English to vote again to accept German hegemony is non trivial.

                            And what happens if Leave wins again?
                            Last edited by rathbaner; 4th-December-2018, 13:03.
                            Munster – Champions of Europe 2006, 2008, 2020.

                            Comment


                              Originally posted by rathbaner View Post
                              And what happens if Leave wins again?
                              Any referendum held should be binary, [Remain in the EU Yes / No]. If No wins out I could see a second commons vote on TM's deal and if that is defeated, a no deal Brexit. Although with the threat of a no deal Brexit looming I'd imagine pragmatism would win the day there.

                              Regardless of what happens I think the EU should move quickly to remove the right of a Member State to unilaterally withdraw an Article 50 notification (presuming the ECJ follows the AG's opinion). Any state serving an Article 50 notice after this cluster**** should not have the opportunity to do a 180.
                              "It’s not the team you support, it’s the club you should support. The team on the pitch will ebb and flow because that’s the nature of sport. No team has ever been successful decade on decade. The club has the history and that’s the passion you should have."

                              Comment


                                Originally posted by Jenta View Post

                                Any referendum held should be binary, [Remain in the EU Yes / No]. If No wins out I could see a second commons vote on TM's deal and if that is defeated, a no deal Brexit. Although with the threat of a no deal Brexit looming I'd imagine pragmatism would win the day there.

                                Regardless of what happens I think the EU should move quickly to remove the right of a Member State to unilaterally withdraw an Article 50 notification (presuming the ECJ follows the AG's opinion). Any state serving an Article 50 notice after this cluster**** should not have the opportunity to do a 180.
                                I'd disagree.


                                Three way vote with a single transferable vote. Third placed option after first cuts has 2nd choices redistributed.

                                That produces a straight mandate for either one of May's Deal vs No Deal vs Remain.


                                And in answer to the previous question, if either of the Leave options wins then that's enacted.

                                "We will not walk in fear, one of another. We will not be driven into an age of unreason if we dig deep into our history and remember we are not descended from fearful men" Edward R Murrow

                                "Little by little, we have been brought into the present condition in which we are able neither to tolerate the evils from which we suffer, nor the remedies we need to cure them." - Livy


                                "I think that progress has been made by two flames that have always been burning in the human heart. The flame of anger against injustice and the flame of hope that you can build a better world" - Tony Benn

                                Comment

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