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Brexit referendum and negotiations 2016-19

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    Originally posted by KerryRed View Post

    Or if he ran a proper remain campaign to begin with the UK wouldn’t be in this scenario... and would of avoided the countless damage already caused. His only long game is becoming PM
    He campaigned for remain. And Labour voter's support for the EU proved far more durable than that of Tory voters.

    Blaming him for this ahead of anyone in blue is just an extension of people's general obsession with talking him down.
    "We will not walk in fear, one of another. We will not be driven into an age of unreason if we dig deep into our history and remember we are not descended from fearful men" Edward R Murrow

    "Little by little, we have been brought into the present condition in which we are able neither to tolerate the evils from which we suffer, nor the remedies we need to cure them." - Livy


    "I think that progress has been made by two flames that have always been burning in the human heart. The flame of anger against injustice and the flame of hope that you can build a better world" - Tony Benn

    Comment


      Originally posted by HenryFitz View Post

      The backstop is necessary because the transition arrangement is time limited. The transition arrangement is time limited because Tory Brexiters are impatient to get out. Its purpose is evident and necessary for other parties, and it has been nurtured and given form by them. However, its feckless parents are the ERG.
      A transition arrangement will always be temporary - that's kind of the definition of a transition, i.e. the point is to get somewhere else not stay in the transition. The backstop is not timelimited. This is the circular peg that the squares in the ERG can't get heads around, and it won't be changing shape no matter how long the transition last.

      Comment


        Originally posted by AwayFromHome View Post

        McDonnell is already busily flying that kite.

        https://www.theguardian.com/politics...john-mcdonnell
        It's been my sense right from the off that the only point at which Brexit could be effectively stopped and reversed was when the Govt inevitably put a **** deal on the table. It has to be seen by a chunk of it's previous supporters to have failed on its own terms, and can then be blocked by people who can legitimately claim that they were open to supporting the right deal.


        It's an odd formula, but I can't see another one that can work. Adonis shouting at Farage isn't going to move anyone, and vice versa.
        "We will not walk in fear, one of another. We will not be driven into an age of unreason if we dig deep into our history and remember we are not descended from fearful men" Edward R Murrow

        "Little by little, we have been brought into the present condition in which we are able neither to tolerate the evils from which we suffer, nor the remedies we need to cure them." - Livy


        "I think that progress has been made by two flames that have always been burning in the human heart. The flame of anger against injustice and the flame of hope that you can build a better world" - Tony Benn

        Comment


          Originally posted by Balla Boy View Post

          He campaigned for remain. And Labour voter's support for the EU proved far more durable than that of Tory voters.

          Blaming him for this ahead of anyone in blue is just an extension of people's general obsession with talking him down.
          Very Very Weakly. It was obvious he had major reservations. He won’t even confirm if he voted whether to leave or remain. To say Corbyn or Labour actually actively campaigned to stay in the EU simply isn’t true. There isn’t an agenda out to get him any more then any other politician. The right wing media will show him in a darker light, as the left wing media show him in a positive light. I’ve nothing against him personally. But he’s just been a very poor leader. And quite a costly one. And if the was a more pro - EU leader was in charge, like Blair (who I actually majorly dislike after the Iraq/Afghan wars) I honestly believe Brexit probably wouldn’t of happened. A lot of leave Labour voters may have gone down party lines, considering how close the vote was and poor turnout for the remain side and protest votes.
          "The PRO12 is our domestic league, it's what you earn your bread and butter from; it's what pays the bills. We need to broaden our emphasis and get an understanding in Irish rugby that the domestic league from now on is most important and that's what qualifies you now for Europe.'' Garrett Fitzgerald, CEO Munster

          Comment


            Originally posted by Balla Boy View Post

            Adonis shouting at Farage isn't going to move anyone, and vice versa.
            It'll move me to....

            to another channel

            [/waldorf and statler]

            Comment


              Originally posted by KerryRed View Post

              Very Very Weakly. It was obvious he had major reservations. He won’t even confirm if he voted whether to leave or remain. To say Corbyn or Labour actually actively campaigned to stay in the EU simply isn’t true. There isn’t an agenda out to get him any more then any other politician. The right wing media will show him in a darker light, as the left wing media show him in a positive light. I’ve nothing against him personally. But he’s just been a very poor leader. And quite a costly one. And if the was a more pro - EU leader was in charge, like Blair (who I actually majorly dislike after the Iraq/Afghan wars) I honestly believe Brexit probably wouldn’t of happened. A lot of leave Labour voters may have gone down party lines, considering how close the vote was and poor turnout for the remain side and protest votes.
              I don't think that the assertion that he's been a "very poor leader" is that easily substantiated.

              He's built the largest political movement in Europe. He's achieved the largest electoral swing to Labour in post war history. He pulled back something like 20 points in opinion polling over the course of the GE campaign.

              The Indie ref in Scotland destroyed the Labour Party for a generation. The Tories are on the cusp of implosion. I think both of those facts give some context to the balancing act he's had.

              It might annoy you that he's not more Pro - Remain. You might disagree with it. It doesn't mean he's doing a bad job of leading Labour.
              "We will not walk in fear, one of another. We will not be driven into an age of unreason if we dig deep into our history and remember we are not descended from fearful men" Edward R Murrow

              "Little by little, we have been brought into the present condition in which we are able neither to tolerate the evils from which we suffer, nor the remedies we need to cure them." - Livy


              "I think that progress has been made by two flames that have always been burning in the human heart. The flame of anger against injustice and the flame of hope that you can build a better world" - Tony Benn

              Comment


                Brexit has already caused huge loss in Foregin Direct Investment, caused huge job loses both in creation & relocating, a surge in hate crime actually up 100% after the referendum, which is quite terrifying, reputational loss, and caused a major climate of uncertainty for businesses and households alike. It will blow a whole in the UKs budget that will lead to more austerity for possibly decades. Corbyns indecision aided in a far right Brexiteer victory. That’s on him, no one else, he played that role. All the good causes will be mute, even if Labour oust the Torries as the UK will be broke. Not unlike the dems in the states when they eventually oust Trunps Republicans. In a different time Corbyn may of been a better leader. But he’s royalty messed up the UKs future in the biggest issue for half a century maybe barring the Iraq/Afghan wars. He can never recover from that. There is nothing he can do to resolve the damage already done. Therefore IMO he’s a terrible leader.
                "The PRO12 is our domestic league, it's what you earn your bread and butter from; it's what pays the bills. We need to broaden our emphasis and get an understanding in Irish rugby that the domestic league from now on is most important and that's what qualifies you now for Europe.'' Garrett Fitzgerald, CEO Munster

                Comment


                  Originally posted by KerryRed View Post
                  Brexit has already caused huge loss in Foregin Direct Investment, caused huge job loses both in creation & relocating, a surge in hate crime actually up 100% after the referendum, which is quite terrifying, reputational loss, and caused a major climate of uncertainty for businesses and households alike. It will blow a whole in the UKs budget that will lead to more austerity for possibly decades. Corbyns indecision aided in a far right Brexiteer victory. That’s on him, no one else, he played that role. All the good causes will be mute, even if Labour oust the Torries as the UK will be broke. Not unlike the dems in the states when they eventually oust Trunps Republicans. In a different time Corbyn may of been a better leader. But he’s royalty messed up the UKs future in the biggest issue for half a century maybe barring the Iraq/Afghan wars. He can never recover from that. There is nothing he can do to resolve the damage already done. Therefore IMO he’s a terrible leader.
                  Who made the referendum a manifesto promise? Who followed through with that promise? Who allowed prominent members of their party a free vote on that referendum and let them use the Party's brand recognition to lead the leave campaign? Who inflicted a decade of austerity budgets that left northern England feeling kicked in the n*ts? Not Corbyn - Cameron and Osborne.

                  Of course with hindsight Corbyn could have campaigned harder in the Tory civil war. Of course had he done so and remain had won the UK would probably be looking into the face of a Con/UKIP coalition in a general election next year and 10 more years of "austerity" (otherwise known as state dismantling).

                  With respect to the outcome of the Brexit process Corbyn's legacy can be judged on what happens in the next six months. He is now comfortably established as leader - the centre grudgingly accept that he helps the party electorally and organizationally. He has let the public see what Brexit deals are really on the table and he is letting his party policy be driven by its members and by wider public opinion. The slow shift to remain via a second referendum from someone who is not seen as an insider or part of a cosy elite is probably a stronger voice for remaining than anything he could have said in 2016.

                  Comment


                    Originally posted by KerryRed View Post
                    Brexit has already caused huge loss in Foregin Direct Investment, caused huge job loses both in creation & relocating, a surge in hate crime actually up 100% after the referendum, which is quite terrifying, reputational loss, and caused a major climate of uncertainty for businesses and households alike. It will blow a whole in the UKs budget that will lead to more austerity for possibly decades. Corbyns indecision aided in a far right Brexiteer victory. That’s on him, no one else, he played that role. All the good causes will be mute, even if Labour oust the Torries as the UK will be broke. Not unlike the dems in the states when they eventually oust Trunps Republicans. In a different time Corbyn may of been a better leader. But he’s royalty messed up the UKs future in the biggest issue for half a century maybe barring the Iraq/Afghan wars. He can never recover from that. There is nothing he can do to resolve the damage already done. Therefore IMO he’s a terrible leader.
                    The Brexit vote was a Tory initiative proudly supported by Tories and ex-Tories. 2016 Conservative voters voted nearly 60% in favour of Brexit.

                    Labour (including Corbyn) campaigned against Brexit and 2016 Labour voters voted almost 70% to remain.

                    I'm not sure how you can put this mess on Corbyn.
                    "It’s not the team you support, it’s the club you should support. The team on the pitch will ebb and flow because that’s the nature of sport. No team has ever been successful decade on decade. The club has the history and that’s the passion you should have."

                    Comment


                      Obviously the conservatives are at fault. No one in there right mind would disagree with that.

                      My point is Corbyn rolled over and let them win. He didn’t strenuously go out campaigning like the Scottish Independence referendum. He had a job as the opposition party leader to a hard right party in power. And he failed miserably, he sat on the fence and let it all happen. The Torries are what there are. Won’t get into that. He is very guilty in his role. Sitting on the side lines pointing his finger and shrugging his shoulders. His leagacy will always be just that. Even if the UK manage to pull themselves out of this mess. The consequences on Brexit are well under way. Corbyn can’t reverse this. He by his own actions obviously cares more about getting into government then doing what’s right. That my beef with him. And probably why he receives so much criticism.
                      "The PRO12 is our domestic league, it's what you earn your bread and butter from; it's what pays the bills. We need to broaden our emphasis and get an understanding in Irish rugby that the domestic league from now on is most important and that's what qualifies you now for Europe.'' Garrett Fitzgerald, CEO Munster

                      Comment


                        Originally posted by KerryRed View Post
                        Obviously the conservatives are at fault. No one in there right mind would disagree with that.

                        My point is Corbyn rolled over and let them win. He didn’t strenuously go out campaigning like the Scottish Independence referendum. He had a job as the opposition party leader to a hard right party in power. And he failed miserably, he sat on the fence and let it all happen. The Torries are what there are. Won’t get into that. He is very guilty in his role. Sitting on the side lines pointing his finger and shrugging his shoulders. His leagacy will always be just that. Even if the UK manage to pull themselves out of this mess. The consequences on Brexit are well under way. Corbyn can’t reverse this. He by his own actions obviously cares more about getting into government then doing what’s right. That my beef with him. And probably why he receives so much criticism.
                        If the UK has a 2nd referendum and decides to stay then the consequences of the 2016 vote will be small in the medium term. This is the issue also with those who smear remainers with the name "Project Fear" - the consequences of an actual Brexit are not even remotely being felt by the British economy yet because it hasn't happened much of the business community has been hoping it might not happen. 12 months of postponed investments does not really have major long term damage. The economic bounce of a reversal would be quite big and would probably give a Labour govt an uptick in tax receipts to address some of their manifesto promises on the reversal of the impact of austerity (in fact if they manged to reverse Brexit the likes of the CBI would probably give them a little bit of leeway with tax rises for infrastructure investment).

                        Comment


                          Just because the Tories have made such a fiasco of the divorce negotiations and just because the consequences look so bad, that doesn't mean that the EU has improved in the eyes of Leave voters.

                          The EU is still wedded to policies many of those voters find unacceptable and while they might be defeated in a referendum it doesn't mean that they cannot decisively sway a general election.

                          Anyone of Corbyn's longevity will remember the number of times that splits in Labour's GE vote cost them power, whether it was the Lib Dems or UKIP.

                          Corbyn won't make that mistake. On top of that he doesn't want to fight an election on Brexit knowing that Fleet St will be at its jingoistic worst "standing up to the Bosch" and reliving Their Finest Hour when they "stood alone against the evil tide of" yadda yadda.

                          Corbyn will want to fight on Labour's ability to provide substantive solutions to low pay, housing and the NHS. That works.
                          Munster – Champions of Europe 2006, 2008, 2020.

                          Comment


                            Originally posted by AwayFromHome View Post

                            If the UK has a 2nd referendum and decides to stay then the consequences of the 2016 vote will be small in the medium term. This is the issue also with those who smear remainers with the name "Project Fear" - the consequences of an actual Brexit are not even remotely being felt by the British economy yet because it hasn't happened much of the business community has been hoping it might not happen. 12 months of postponed investments does not really have major long term damage. The economic bounce of a reversal would be quite big and would probably give a Labour govt an uptick in tax receipts to address some of their manifesto promises on the reversal of the impact of austerity (in fact if they manged to reverse Brexit the likes of the CBI would probably give them a little bit of leeway with tax rises for infrastructure investment).
                            I agree with most of that. Except that the consequences are already underway. It’s not prosponed investment... that investment has gone elsewhere. Businesses relay on continuity, how can they makes plans, order stock or take on contracts for goods and services when they don’t know prices or if they’ll be able to deliver. Just look at the mess of just in time. Look at the mess farmers are in. They have no idea of how much stock to breed, or the rules/regulations of that stock come spring. Companies moving headquarters or deciding not to go to the UK. Households putting off large purchases such as cars or houses. People stocking medicine. Reputional damage, there won’t be too many big companies such as the car manufacturers setting up in Sunderland in a hurry. The drop in pound, leading to increases in food prices, The reality is the worse off will get hit the most. In a macro perspective you are right, the UK economy will come out with a few cuts and bruises, if it was called off today/second referendum. But in a real life, the micro perspective, people’s lives/livelihoods will be already damaged.
                            "The PRO12 is our domestic league, it's what you earn your bread and butter from; it's what pays the bills. We need to broaden our emphasis and get an understanding in Irish rugby that the domestic league from now on is most important and that's what qualifies you now for Europe.'' Garrett Fitzgerald, CEO Munster

                            Comment


                              I'm not sure how persuasive Corbyn, or any mainstream politician, could have been on the EU referendum. Messaging was what dominated. Vote Leave promised sovereignty and more money for the NHS and Leave.EU promised an end to immigrants. Remain had less enticing promises. The vote crystallised the UK's general lack of interest in the future of the EU. Nobody in the UK campaigned on what the EU should become. Because they don't see it as their project any more. They got the single market 25 years ago and the rest they don't really care about. Even the increased democratic legitimacy brought about by the Lisbon treaty is of no interest to them. The EU is not subject to the whims of the English electorate, therefore it is not democratic. It's a club for elites etc. Even if the UK votes grudgingly to remain, it will be as the most recalcitrant of partners. So maybe it's better if they go Norway plus. A small amount of disruption to trade, and the UK able to throw its weight around in EFTA and the EEA.

                              Comment


                                Originally posted by HenryFitz View Post
                                I'm not sure how persuasive Corbyn, or any mainstream politician, could have been on the EU referendum. Messaging was what dominated. Vote Leave promised sovereignty and more money for the NHS and Leave.EU promised an end to immigrants. Remain had less enticing promises. The vote crystallised the UK's general lack of interest in the future of the EU. Nobody in the UK campaigned on what the EU should become. Because they don't see it as their project any more. They got the single market 25 years ago and the rest they don't really care about. Even the increased democratic legitimacy brought about by the Lisbon treaty is of no interest to them. The EU is not subject to the whims of the English electorate, therefore it is not democratic. It's a club for elites etc. Even if the UK votes grudgingly to remain, it will be as the most recalcitrant of partners. So maybe it's better if they go Norway plus. A small amount of disruption to trade, and the UK able to throw its weight around in EFTA and the EEA.
                                I think the Norway model is a rational compromising way to go. I do believe though just on Corbyn, I’m boring myself at this stage. He could of turned the head of 1 out of 50 voters going from leave to remain. Especially Labour members. Maybe inspired a few more that this is important and to go out and vote. If he had made it a steadfast party line and actually owned it. People do follow party lines. He really didn’t. That’s how close the vote actually was.

                                But you are right about the mentality. When I lived in Yorkshire a number of years back. I couldn’t get over the sheer ignorance for want of a better word to what the EU was? Nor did they want to know. I’d regularly hear why do we need the EU when we have our own United Kingdom or commonwealth. I think there is an identity aspect to it. A romantic idea of a sea bearing nation out on there ships against the waves conquering the world, creating the British empire. They are a very strong nationalist country. Many don’t condsider themselves Europeans which is daft as it’s the continent they belong to. You can see this by them shoving poppies down everyone’s throats. They could never really reconcile the EU with that identity of Britishness. They could never just be a part of union. They needed to be the ones in charge. All that being said, I think there is a shift amongst the younger generation. Ones who actually do see themselves as part of Europe and grew up in the ECC or EU.

                                This will drag on and on and on. If there is any positive to it all which is a stretch, people may be slightly better informed going forward, and give a second thought to other populist parties around Europe, as to going down the same path.
                                "The PRO12 is our domestic league, it's what you earn your bread and butter from; it's what pays the bills. We need to broaden our emphasis and get an understanding in Irish rugby that the domestic league from now on is most important and that's what qualifies you now for Europe.'' Garrett Fitzgerald, CEO Munster

                                Comment

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