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Brexit referendum and negotiations 2016-19

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    Feasible. But what a pain in the hole for everyone.

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      Originally posted by KerryRed View Post
      From what I understand the UK is at a inpass. As said above they wouldn’t be in this situation if Labour had a more centralist leader the the far left Euroceptic Corbyn, who only cares about getting into No.10. He’ll sit on the fence playing to both sides. Between the Torres & Corbyns Labour, the 48% who voted to remain aren’t represented in the main parties only in the more minor parties such as the Lib Dems, Greens or the SNPs.
      If Labour had elected another Milibandesque leader, then May would have a 25 seat majority and would be cruising.

      Every other senior Labour figure was committed to accepting the Tory narrative on austerity. Labour would be nowhere if Corbyn hadn't made the alternative case.

      "We will not walk in fear, one of another. We will not be driven into an age of unreason if we dig deep into our history and remember we are not descended from fearful men" Edward R Murrow

      "Little by little, we have been brought into the present condition in which we are able neither to tolerate the evils from which we suffer, nor the remedies we need to cure them." - Livy


      "I think that progress has been made by two flames that have always been burning in the human heart. The flame of anger against injustice and the flame of hope that you can build a better world" - Tony Benn

      Comment


        Originally posted by Balla Boy View Post

        If Labour had elected another Milibandesque leader, then May would have a 25 seat majority and would be cruising.

        Every other senior Labour figure was committed to accepting the Tory narrative on austerity. Labour would be nowhere if Corbyn hadn't made the alternative case.
        May lost the election with the most complacent and arrogant campaign since 1945, Corbyn didn’t win it. I don’t think Corbyn would do any better now but the Tories won’t take the risk until 2022 no matter what happens.

        Comment


          Originally posted by the plastic paddy View Post

          May lost the election with the most complacent and arrogant campaign since 1945, Corbyn didn’t win it. I don’t think Corbyn would do any better now but the Tories won’t take the risk until 2022 no matter what happens.

          Corbyn recorded the biggest swing since 1945. That wasn't for nothing. And yes, May fought a miserable campaign. But that was at least in part because Corbyn's campaign shut down the lines she would otherwise have taken.

          He also produced a fully costed manifesto with a raft of extremely popular policies.

          Impossible to tell where the parties are now with the Brexit variable confounding most polling, but May would have rolled over any Labour leader taking the stance that most were taking in the leadership election.
          "We will not walk in fear, one of another. We will not be driven into an age of unreason if we dig deep into our history and remember we are not descended from fearful men" Edward R Murrow

          "Little by little, we have been brought into the present condition in which we are able neither to tolerate the evils from which we suffer, nor the remedies we need to cure them." - Livy


          "I think that progress has been made by two flames that have always been burning in the human heart. The flame of anger against injustice and the flame of hope that you can build a better world" - Tony Benn

          Comment


            The fact that Corbers did better than expected or better than some others might have done or better than any other Labour person since whenever does not mean he or Labour can or will be elected next time. Coming 2nd is losing and polls don't suggest even yet that he can win

            He may now have thrown away the ''Irish" vote as well except for the diehard Labour supporters by ideologically cuddling up to the DUP over the backstop.

            ​​​​​​#GiveLeinsterTheHCupNow

            Originally Posted by mr chips
            AG gets the responses he does because he is a journalist..

            Comment


              Of the last three polls, two showed Labour having a good lead. Where it didn't, it was carried out by You gov, who I wouldn't trust to poll my sock drawer.

              Edit

              Having said that I think it's madness that Corbyn would even contemplate a TV debate with May on Brexit. No win situation, opportunity to be painted (yet again) by the right wing press a a commie, moves the narrative from real issues like the NHS, homelessness etc.
              Last edited by fitzy73; 28-November-2018, 08:04.
              Please support Milford Hospice. Click here to donate.

              Comment


                Originally posted by AwayFromHome View Post

                That in effect is the current deal. There is still a need for a backstop however. On 30/03/2019 when the UK leaves the EU and enters that transition period it can do whatever the fup it wants effectively (keeping in mind that like all things doing whatever you want has consequences). Therefore the UK in the absence of a treaty the UK can erect whatever border and trade barriers it choses between NI and ROI on 01/04/2019. It can also take a series of action that would in effect require Ireland to impose such a border in order to maintain compliance with its obligations as an EU member.

                I think what you meant to say rather than indefinite transition is to extend A50 period until the final agreement on the future relationship is agreed. That is not an easy win because the Brexiteers will feel betrayed if membership drags on forever and the EU does not want to be dealing with this for the next 5-10 years. This is why on sequencing the E said withdrawal first future relationship afterwards. David Davis promised the "battle of the summer" on this issue of sequencing in 2017 and then gave in on day 1 of the formal negotiations without even a nasty press release.
                My impression was that the transition period is as legally operative as the backstop. It guarantees the primacy of the ECJ and the UK's participation in the single market and the EU Customs Union. Which would mean no border. It has been decided by agreement that it ends in January 2020 and can only be extended until 2022, but that strikes me as being negotiable.

                The backstop, aside from its provisions for NI, is in place to ensure that both parties have an incentive to conclude talks on the future relationship. It was necessary to appease various Brexiters in the Tory party, who wanted a time-limited transition period. For Labour, that's not as much of an issue. It would be a hard sell to Brexit voters, but the ugly alternative of the backstop might be sufficiently persuasive. For the EU, there would be some danger in allowing an indefinite transition period, as it would give the UK some privileges it should not have, but the carrot is that lots of Brexit voters will die before the transition period ends and the future relationship is agreed, increasing the chances of Remain or, at worst, Norway plus. It is also the least disruptive option for both sides as it does not require interim arrangements.

                Labour are currently walking their voters and MPs through the process of getting a second referendum or a no-confidence vote. The second referendum seems like an easier goal, which is probably why McDonnell has begun talking about what it should contain, which is a choice between May's Deal and Remain. A rejection by the electorate of May's Deal would surely, under normal circumstances, bring down the government. Corbyn doesn't seem keen, but he never has. He has people around him who get to do the ugly compromises with reality that get Labour an election.

                For the Brexiter Tories, their gateway to Canada Plus is the Tory Membership, who are just about stupid and senile enough to vote for a Brexiter. May is still popular with them, though, so they need her out of the way first. They will be walking that tightrope between disloyalty in the service of the nation and outright rebellion for the next few weeks. They probably have a better chance than Labour of taking the reins of government, but are they clever enough to actually get them and can they hold onto them when they do?

                Comment


                  Originally posted by the plastic paddy View Post

                  A referendum is a possibility. I cannot see any Conservative politician calling an early GE unless they are 100% certain they are going to win. I genuinely don’t think neutral observers appreciate quite how terrified of Corbyn the Tories are. Honestly, if Corbyn won an election I wouldn’t be entirely surprised if the UK saw an attempted coup.
                  There's a sub stratum of Hooray Henry's for whom Labour is more evil than Beelzebub but I think you are overegging the visions of Corbyn horror among the rank and file (beyond the routine tribalism).
                  A 'No deal' is 'out!' May is bolliqsed between the various factions and a referendum ending in remain is the most sensible route for all.
                  Stand up for the Ulcer men

                  Comment


                    Originally posted by HenryFitz View Post

                    My impression was that the transition period is as legally operative as the backstop. It guarantees the primacy of the ECJ and the UK's participation in the single market and the EU Customs Union. Which would mean no border. It has been decided by agreement that it ends in January 2020 and can only be extended until 2022, but that strikes me as being negotiable.

                    The backstop, aside from its provisions for NI, is in place to ensure that both parties have an incentive to conclude talks on the future relationship. It was necessary to appease various Brexiters in the Tory party, who wanted a time-limited transition period. For Labour, that's not as much of an issue. It would be a hard sell to Brexit voters, but the ugly alternative of the backstop might be sufficiently persuasive. For the EU, there would be some danger in allowing an indefinite transition period, as it would give the UK some privileges it should not have, but the carrot is that lots of Brexit voters will die before the transition period ends and the future relationship is agreed, increasing the chances of Remain or, at worst, Norway plus. It is also the least disruptive option for both sides as it does not require interim arrangements.

                    Labour are currently walking their voters and MPs through the process of getting a second referendum or a no-confidence vote. The second referendum seems like an easier goal, which is probably why McDonnell has begun talking about what it should contain, which is a choice between May's Deal and Remain. A rejection by the electorate of May's Deal would surely, under normal circumstances, bring down the government. Corbyn doesn't seem keen, but he never has. He has people around him who get to do the ugly compromises with reality that get Labour an election.

                    For the Brexiter Tories, their gateway to Canada Plus is the Tory Membership, who are just about stupid and senile enough to vote for a Brexiter. May is still popular with them, though, so they need her out of the way first. They will be walking that tightrope between disloyalty in the service of the nation and outright rebellion for the next few weeks. They probably have a better chance than Labour of taking the reins of government, but are they clever enough to actually get them and can they hold onto them when they do?
                    The backstop itself only relates to NI. Its purpose is to give Ireland "an all-weather guarantee" that there will not be a hard border imposed in future as a result of Brexit. That has been Dublin's request from day 1 (despite the fact that our real economic interests are in not having a border in the Irish Sea - but there is nothing we can really do about that). There is no legal obligation on the UK to accept this request but Whitehall understands the implications of not agreeing to it (internal implications for security in the UK and political implications of pissing off an EU27 member who can veto the sh!t out of any future trade deal).

                    The approach to implementing the backstop has been done not to accommodate the Tory hardliners (who would happily throw NI under their big red fun bus) but to accommodate rationale unionist opinion (the problem is that in the media maelstrom nobody seems to speak for this position apart from the PM, because the One Nation Tories want a people's vote or the softest possible Brexit and the Scots are focused on their fishing votes)

                    Comment


                      As far as I’ve seen during this process. Labour under Corbyn, they failed to make any real campaign to stay in the EU, he has sat on the fence playing to both sides. If they had the referendum really could of been different. In many ways he’s letting the Torries do his bidding as an ani establishment/Euroceptic. He may well end up PM eventually due to this tactic. But at the expense of the UK.

                      And I think it’s quite damning for him that possibly the worst chaotic populist government in modern UK history, on the verge on committing economic suicide, still somehow manages to poll ahead of his party and May ahead of him. Think Labour made gains in the last election due to Torry mismanagement not due to Corbyns leadership or lack there off.
                      "The PRO12 is our domestic league, it's what you earn your bread and butter from; it's what pays the bills. We need to broaden our emphasis and get an understanding in Irish rugby that the domestic league from now on is most important and that's what qualifies you now for Europe.'' Garrett Fitzgerald, CEO Munster

                      Comment


                        Originally posted by KerryRed View Post
                        As far as I’ve seen during this process. Labour under Corbyn, they failed to make any real campaign to stay in the EU, he has sat on the fence playing to both sides. If they had the referendum really could of been different. In many ways he’s letting the Torries do his bidding as an ani establishment/Euroceptic. He may well end up PM eventually due to this tactic. But at the expense of the UK.

                        And I think it’s quite damning for him that possibly the worst chaotic populist government in modern UK history, on the verge on committing economic suicide, still somehow manages to poll ahead of his party and May ahead of him. Think Labour made gains in the last election due to Torry mismanagement not due to Corbyns leadership or lack there off.
                        I think the mess that is the Tory party helped Labour out in the last GE but Labour also put together a well costed and sensible manifesto which assured protection for social and public services after years of a fairly disastrous austerity campaign. You don't achieve the biggest swing in 80 years just because the main opposition have run a bad campaign.

                        I would agree that Corbyn hasn't been brilliant on Brexit. I'm not sure I buy too much into the idea of the difficult balancing act between Labour voters in Leave constituencies and Remain constituencies. Labour voters were more or less equal with Lib Dem voters in terms of how they voted in the referendum and the Lib Dem message on Brexit certainly hasn't been unclear. Corbyn's main problem is that he doesn't want the UK in the EU. The EU is still a neo-liberal behemoth in his eyes.
                        "It’s not the team you support, it’s the club you should support. The team on the pitch will ebb and flow because that’s the nature of sport. No team has ever been successful decade on decade. The club has the history and that’s the passion you should have."

                        Comment


                          Originally posted by AwayFromHome View Post

                          The backstop itself only relates to NI. Its purpose is to give Ireland "an all-weather guarantee" that there will not be a hard border imposed in future as a result of Brexit. That has been Dublin's request from day 1 (despite the fact that our real economic interests are in not having a border in the Irish Sea - but there is nothing we can really do about that). There is no legal obligation on the UK to accept this request but Whitehall understands the implications of not agreeing to it (internal implications for security in the UK and political implications of pissing off an EU27 member who can veto the sh!t out of any future trade deal).

                          The approach to implementing the backstop has been done not to accommodate the Tory hardliners (who would happily throw NI under their big red fun bus) but to accommodate rationale unionist opinion (the problem is that in the media maelstrom nobody seems to speak for this position apart from the PM, because the One Nation Tories want a people's vote or the softest possible Brexit and the Scots are focused on their fishing votes)
                          The backstop is necessary because the transition arrangement is time limited. The transition arrangement is time limited because Tory Brexiters are impatient to get out. Its purpose is evident and necessary for other parties, and it has been nurtured and given form by them. However, its feckless parents are the ERG.

                          Comment



                            "Labour figures" suggesting to Peston today that Corbyn will come out for a people's vote once May's deal is defeated, on the basis that with no consensus in Parliament the decision should go back to the people.

                            If he does, his many detractors would have to credit him with having managed a very long and very complex game far better than they suggested he might.
                            "We will not walk in fear, one of another. We will not be driven into an age of unreason if we dig deep into our history and remember we are not descended from fearful men" Edward R Murrow

                            "Little by little, we have been brought into the present condition in which we are able neither to tolerate the evils from which we suffer, nor the remedies we need to cure them." - Livy


                            "I think that progress has been made by two flames that have always been burning in the human heart. The flame of anger against injustice and the flame of hope that you can build a better world" - Tony Benn

                            Comment


                              Originally posted by Balla Boy View Post
                              "Labour figures" suggesting to Peston today that Corbyn will come out for a people's vote once May's deal is defeated, on the basis that with no consensus in Parliament the decision should go back to the people.

                              If he does, his many detractors would have to credit him with having managed a very long and very complex game far better than they suggested he might.
                              Or if he ran a proper remain campaign to begin with the UK wouldn’t be in this scenario... and would of avoided the countless damage already caused. His only long game is becoming PM
                              "The PRO12 is our domestic league, it's what you earn your bread and butter from; it's what pays the bills. We need to broaden our emphasis and get an understanding in Irish rugby that the domestic league from now on is most important and that's what qualifies you now for Europe.'' Garrett Fitzgerald, CEO Munster

                              Comment


                                Originally posted by Balla Boy View Post
                                "Labour figures" suggesting to Peston today that Corbyn will come out for a people's vote once May's deal is defeated, on the basis that with no consensus in Parliament the decision should go back to the people.

                                If he does, his many detractors would have to credit him with having managed a very long and very complex game far better than they suggested he might.
                                McDonnell is already busily flying that kite.

                                https://www.theguardian.com/politics...john-mcdonnell

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