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Brexit referendum and negotiations 2016-19

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    There is no majority in the HoC for a no deal. There is no desire in the EU27 for a no-deal outcome. These are 2 very important facts. Of course they don't make a no-deal impossible but they make it an outlier scenario. Intergovernmental negotiators rarely through each other over real legal cliffs, particularly ones as close the the UK and EU27.

    If the HoC does not approve the current deal then an extension under A50 would seem the most likely outcome. It is 50/50 as to whether Labour could force a GE but closer to 99/1 that Labour would get enough votes to require PM to request extension of A50 process. That would only require about 10-20 defections from the Tory side (or maybe somewhere around 30 abstentions). Of course the EU would probably prefer to be dealing with a new "strong and stable" government than the current shower but realpolitik is realpolitik.

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      The fixed term parliament act can be repealed by a simple majority. Remove that, call a no confident vote, and I think you've an election. Ordinarily I'd think this the least likely option but these are not ordinary times.

      Lots of other legal challenges going on as well.

      https://twitter.com/StevePeers/statu...69837739540480
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        The ECJ is due to rule shortly on whether or not Article 50 can in fact be be reversed - https://www.theguardian.com/politics...an-be-reversed
        Tis but a scratch.

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          Originally posted by mr chips View Post
          The ECJ is due to rule shortly on whether or not Article 50 can in fact be be reversed - https://www.theguardian.com/politics...an-be-reversed
          The issue of whether it can be revoked unilaterally is open to interpretation - that will be rule on in this case.

          The issue of whether the 2 year period can be extended is not open to interpetation. It is specified in Article 50.3 "The Treaties shall cease to apply to the State in question from the date of entry into force of the withdrawal agreement or, failing that, two years after the notification referred to in paragraph 2, unless the European Council, in agreement with the Member State concerned, unanimously decides to extend this period."

          In fact rereading this would suggest that if the UK rejects the withdrawal deal the European Council could initiate the extension. It wouldn't even need to be triggered by an opposition motion in the HoC.

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            Originally posted by fitzy73 View Post
            The fixed term parliament act can be repealed by a simple majority. Remove that, call a no confident vote, and I think you've an election. Ordinarily I'd think this the least likely option but these are not ordinary times.

            Lots of other legal challenges going on as well.

            https://twitter.com/StevePeers/statu...69837739540480
            There is no way an attempt to repeal the Fixed term parliament act would get through parliament. Not even the Lib Dem’s could initiate a piece of legislation that could be so easily circumvented.

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              Originally posted by AwayFromHome View Post
              There is no majority in the HoC for a no deal. There is no desire in the EU27 for a no-deal outcome. These are 2 very important facts. Of course they don't make a no-deal impossible but they make it an outlier scenario. Intergovernmental negotiators rarely through each other over real legal cliffs, particularly ones as close the the UK and EU27.

              If the HoC does not approve the current deal then an extension under A50 would seem the most likely outcome. It is 50/50 as to whether Labour could force a GE but closer to 99/1 that Labour would get enough votes to require PM to request extension of A50 process. That would only require about 10-20 defections from the Tory side (or maybe somewhere around 30 abstentions). Of course the EU would probably prefer to be dealing with a new "strong and stable" government than the current shower but realpolitik is realpolitik.
              A last minute amendment to include a referendum in the 1st parliamentary vote or the promise/threat of such an amendment to the 2nd parliamentary vote should get her deal through perhaps subject to a to referendum where as a soft Brexit or Cameron Plus Brexit it would probably pass.

              Such a parliamentary amendment (backstop) is yer only man - times like these.
              ​​​​​​#GiveLeinsterTheHCupNow

              Originally Posted by mr chips
              AG gets the responses he does because he is a journalist..

              Comment


                Originally posted by the plastic paddy View Post

                There is no way an attempt to repeal the Fixed term parliament act would get through parliament. Not even the Lib Dem’s could initiate a piece of legislation that could be so easily circumvented.
                It's hated by MPs though - even more so in the current climate. As I've said it's unlikely, but at this stage nothing short of Thatcher rising from the dead and joined the Brexit debate would surprise me.
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                  Originally posted by fitzy73 View Post

                  It's hated by MPs though - even more so in the current climate. As I've said it's unlikely, but at this stage nothing short of Thatcher rising from the dead and joined the Brexit debate would surprise me.
                  It was always an extremely dangerous piece of legislation because it made it very difficult/ nearly impossible to remove the executive from power between elections and had the potential to prop up a government incapable of getting legislation through Parliament.... But the ERG aren’t Turkeys who will vote for Christmas and Corbyn is the priority for Tory members. If a centrist was Labour leader I think May would have been toast months ago but the ERG darent facilitate a GE.

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                    If May is serious about reining in the Tory right and securing her deal with the EU then the only weapon she has to make them fall into line is either to call a gereral electon or a referendum on her deal.

                    There is no alternative.
                    Munster – Champions of Europe 2006, 2008, 2020.

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                      Govt now refusing to release full legal advice before debate, despite Parliament passing a motion demanding it.

                      Because it’s all about democracy and sovereignty like...
                      "We will not walk in fear, one of another. We will not be driven into an age of unreason if we dig deep into our history and remember we are not descended from fearful men" Edward R Murrow

                      "Little by little, we have been brought into the present condition in which we are able neither to tolerate the evils from which we suffer, nor the remedies we need to cure them." - Livy


                      "I think that progress has been made by two flames that have always been burning in the human heart. The flame of anger against injustice and the flame of hope that you can build a better world" - Tony Benn

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                        BTW - It horrifies me that the FTPA might matter. The thought of a zombie govt staggering along with the support of less than 50% of the house just seems unimaginable. The FTPA was always a **** piece of legislation, but this is really crystalising why.

                        "We will not walk in fear, one of another. We will not be driven into an age of unreason if we dig deep into our history and remember we are not descended from fearful men" Edward R Murrow

                        "Little by little, we have been brought into the present condition in which we are able neither to tolerate the evils from which we suffer, nor the remedies we need to cure them." - Livy


                        "I think that progress has been made by two flames that have always been burning in the human heart. The flame of anger against injustice and the flame of hope that you can build a better world" - Tony Benn

                        Comment


                          Originally posted by rathbaner View Post
                          If May is serious about reining in the Tory right and securing her deal with the EU then the only weapon she has to make them fall into line is either to call a gereral electon or a referendum on her deal.

                          There is no alternative.
                          A referendum is a possibility. I cannot see any Conservative politician calling an early GE unless they are 100% certain they are going to win. I genuinely don’t think neutral observers appreciate quite how terrified of Corbyn the Tories are. Honestly, if Corbyn won an election I wouldn’t be entirely surprised if the UK saw an attempted coup.

                          Comment


                            Originally posted by the plastic paddy View Post

                            A referendum is a possibility. I cannot see any Conservative politician calling an early GE unless they are 100% certain they are going to win. I genuinely don’t think neutral observers appreciate quite how terrified of Corbyn the Tories are. Honestly, if Corbyn won an election I wouldn’t be entirely surprised if the UK saw an attempted coup.
                            May might just run out of patience with the bully boys, she knows she's finished anyway so she has nothing to lose.

                            There have been a few positve noises about McDonnell's economic plans from the rational UK media, including the FT. There is an underlying structural economic crisis even without Brexit that is causing some worry. In particular the end of the link between work and prosperity. Most people on benefits are working now, no one on double the average industrial wage can afford a home in much of southern England where the jobs are.

                            A lot of desperate people expect Brexit to deliver more prosperity and better services. (I know!!). There will be serious anger on the streets when things worsen. May could do much worse than take her deal to the country in an election or referendum.

                            If there was tp be a coup following a Corbyn election victory, I'd imagine it would take place within the Labour Party first. But you'll get plenty of notice of what the plan will be by reading the Telegraph and the Mail.
                            Munster – Champions of Europe 2006, 2008, 2020.

                            Comment


                              Originally posted by the plastic paddy View Post

                              A referendum is a possibility. I cannot see any Conservative politician calling an early GE unless they are 100% certain they are going to win. I genuinely don’t think neutral observers appreciate quite how terrified of Corbyn the Tories are. Honestly, if Corbyn won an election I wouldn’t be entirely surprised if the UK saw an attempted coup.
                              The polls will be interesting with neither side probably wanting a GE and therefore making a 2nd referendum more likely.
                              ​​​​​​#GiveLeinsterTheHCupNow

                              Originally Posted by mr chips
                              AG gets the responses he does because he is a journalist..

                              Comment


                                From what I understand the UK is at a inpass. As said above they wouldn’t be in this situation if Labour had a more centralist leader the the far left Euroceptic Corbyn, who only cares about getting into No.10. He’ll sit on the fence playing to both sides. Between the Torres & Corbyns Labour, the 48% who voted to remain aren’t represented in the main parties only in the more minor parties such as the Lib Dems, Greens or the SNPs.

                                What I can see happening is, firstly they’ll be no vote for Mays deal. As it is doomed by both the majority of Remain/voters disliking it. It’ll be shot down by both sides across the isle. After this there could be a no confidence vote in May. This will fail as the Brexiteers obviously aren’t as strong as thought, as seen by Reece Moggs failure to get enough letters in to tigger a vote already. Either or, that’s irrelevant. They have no chance. Labour will try and tigger a no confidence vote in the government and fail. As the Torries won’t vote against there own party. Party loyalty will outweigh the good of there country. The DUP will follow the Torres as no one else would adhere to there bullsh*t! They’ll cling to whatever power they’ll get for as long as they can. May could go back to the EU looking for concessions to try and push through the deal. However they’ll have had enough. The reality is the UKs only bargaining chip was played beforehand. And they’ll just want to move on. Just to put things into perspective, the Japan trade deal (the third biggest economy behind the US and China) is a lot more important to the bloc. Consider the Singapore & Canada deals. Brexit is old news and has become a pain. They’ll have enough as already stated the deal is already agreed.

                                After all of this a they’ll be panic and a second referendum may be considered but they’ll be no appetite amongst the Torries or Corbyns Labour and will probably fail again. Which is sad because I think if there was remain would win by the mid 50s. Mostly due to the age disparity between voters. Older voters dying off/younger voters being able to vote for the first time. Plus a few who changed there minds.

                                Time will be running out at this stage. And Mays deal could be brought back to the table again to avoid a “no deal” scenario. The majority of the parliament are against a no deal. And will probably be stopped. This is were it’s tough to call. It could pass due to sheer panic. The parliament may say enough is enough and take control, agreeing to a sort term deal that would keep the UK in the single market whilst leaving the EU, basically the “Norway deal” - EFTA type agreement and end up in a limbo for the foreseeable future. The EU would agree to this, as it’s nothing new as it’s already in force with obviously Norway. All precedents are already set. I honestly think this is the most likely scenario and that rationality will eventually win out...

                                But that may be wishful thinking.
                                Last edited by KerryRed; 27th-November-2018, 23:27.
                                "The PRO12 is our domestic league, it's what you earn your bread and butter from; it's what pays the bills. We need to broaden our emphasis and get an understanding in Irish rugby that the domestic league from now on is most important and that's what qualifies you now for Europe.'' Garrett Fitzgerald, CEO Munster

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