Announcement

Collapse
No announcement yet.

Brexit referendum and negotiations 2016-19

Collapse
X
 
  • Filter
  • Time
  • Show
Clear All
new posts

    Originally posted by blackwarrior View Post
    Freedom of movement is, or course, a two-way street. The impending restricted movement of UK nationals to EU countries will be a huge setback for a generation or more of young Brits.
    The 60:40 in England, outside of London, who voted for Brexit are not in a position to avail themselves of FOM. And even if they were the full extent of their interest in “foreign” is eating English food, with English people somewhere hot every summer and they will still be able to do that with May’s Deal (if they can afford it). Brexit is a complete rejection of the liberal status quo that has been the prevailing orthodoxy in the UK for the last 50 years. The be all and end all of the vote and any Brexit Deal was always going to be stopping FOM.
    Last edited by the plastic paddy; 24-November-2018, 16:33.

    Comment


      Originally posted by AdolphusGrigson View Post

      Absolutely - the British would have to live with choice - until they rejoin.
      If the price for rejoining is Shenghen, the Euro and joining a Euro army, which I would imagine would be the minimum requirements, I would be amazed if the UK rejoin the EU.

      Comment


        The EU will evolve, humanity embraces reality from time to time although invariably after deranged anti humanists like Trump (and Farage who double jobs with his derenaged clown career as well) show them the REALITY of their perspective. GB will merge again with an EU evolving more towards its positive incarnation.
        If dat doesn't work we can go for an 132 county Republic of the whole British Isles with the ERG/Loons/fascists and DUP planted into the annexed 6 county NI.
        Stand up for the Ulcer men

        Comment


          Originally posted by the plastic paddy View Post

          The 60:40 in England, outside of London, who voted for Brexit are not in a position to avail themselves of FOM. And even if they were the full extent of their interest in “foreign”. Is eating English food, with English people somewhere hot every summer and they will still be able to do that with May’s Deal (if they can afford it). Brexit is a complete rejection of the liberal status quo that has been the prevailing orthodoxy in the UK for the last 50 years. The be all and end all of the vote and any Brexit Deal was always going to be stopping FOM.
          Have you listened to Tintan O'Foole in the guardian, you can read it too but he makes the argument that this all harks back to dealing with the Nazis tbh. Imperial mindsets are that UK saved Europe from the Nazis and never really got the recognition it believed it deserved

          The Brexiters made the euro project a quasi nazism2.0 and plucky England needed to stand up to the bullies! It's heavy going but whoever they got to read the article is a talented orator

          Click image for larger version

Name:	Screenshot_20181124-093323.jpg
Views:	0
Size:	27.3 KB
ID:	2547878
          I am the million man.

          Comment


            Comment


              So, what is the Labour Party going to do? It seems fairly clear that the EU aren’t going to offer anything more substantial than this deal, someone late of this parish is questioning elsewhere whether Barnier can, legally, continue to negotiate. Can Corbyn continue to rule out a second referendum?

              Comment


                Originally posted by the plastic paddy View Post

                The 60:40 in England, outside of London, who voted for Brexit are not in a position to avail themselves of FOM. And even if they were the full extent of their interest in “foreign” is eating English food, with English people somewhere hot every summer and they will still be able to do that with May’s Deal (if they can afford it). Brexit is a complete rejection of the liberal status quo that has been the prevailing orthodoxy in the UK for the last 50 years. The be all and end all of the vote and any Brexit Deal was always going to be stopping FOM.

                They are really, they just don't. There's three quarters of a million working age Brits living in other EU countries, which is the lowest of all EU countries.

                It's true, on the whole, though that the British don't value FOM. It's remarkable really how few Brits consider living and working outside of their country, and those that do tend to head to Australia, New Zealand, Canada and the US. The language barrier is clearly a big one.

                It might be felt a bit more in relation to tourism, and there are certain industries that will be hard hit. Haulage and transportation, obviously, but I'd expect an awful lot of Scots involved in oil and gas will be pretty horrified to see big walls going up between Scotland and Norway/Baltic etc.


                "We will not walk in fear, one of another. We will not be driven into an age of unreason if we dig deep into our history and remember we are not descended from fearful men" Edward R Murrow

                "Little by little, we have been brought into the present condition in which we are able neither to tolerate the evils from which we suffer, nor the remedies we need to cure them." - Livy


                "I think that progress has been made by two flames that have always been burning in the human heart. The flame of anger against injustice and the flame of hope that you can build a better world" - Tony Benn

                Comment


                  Originally posted by the plastic paddy View Post
                  So, what is the Labour Party going to do? It seems fairly clear that the EU aren’t going to offer anything more substantial than this deal, someone late of this parish is questioning elsewhere whether Barnier can, legally, continue to negotiate. Can Corbyn continue to rule out a second referendum?
                  Labour's position of not having a position was reasonable up until May got a deal but now they need to go for a referendum or May's deal rather than pretending there can be a re-negotiation

                  They are now seriously risking a no deal for the fairly remote chance of getting a general election.

                  Labour now in the fantasy big red renegotiation bus with Moggy and the ERG.



                  ​​​​​​
                  ​​​​​​#GiveLeinsterTheHCupNow

                  Originally Posted by mr chips
                  AG gets the responses he does because he is a journalist..

                  Comment


                    Originally posted by the plastic paddy View Post
                    So, what is the Labour Party going to do? It seems fairly clear that the EU aren’t going to offer anything more substantial than this deal, someone late of this parish is questioning elsewhere whether Barnier can, legally, continue to negotiate. Can Corbyn continue to rule out a second referendum?

                    I don't think he can. The pragmatism of it is too compelling.

                    I don't know who is continuing to push the idea that a renegotiation is the way forward. It's self evident nonsense.

                    And that will be even more true in a GE. He can't go to the country with the promise of some as yet to be defined settlement subject to EU agreement. He'll be shot out of the water.

                    "We will not walk in fear, one of another. We will not be driven into an age of unreason if we dig deep into our history and remember we are not descended from fearful men" Edward R Murrow

                    "Little by little, we have been brought into the present condition in which we are able neither to tolerate the evils from which we suffer, nor the remedies we need to cure them." - Livy


                    "I think that progress has been made by two flames that have always been burning in the human heart. The flame of anger against injustice and the flame of hope that you can build a better world" - Tony Benn

                    Comment


                      There seems to be a pretty easy win available in the negotiations. The indefinite transition period. No change to the status quo until the future relationship is agreed. It's self-evidently better than the backstop, and has already been agreed in principle.

                      Comment


                        Originally posted by Balla Boy View Post


                        I don't think he can. The pragmatism of it is too compelling.

                        I don't know who is continuing to push the idea that a renegotiation is the way forward. It's self evident nonsense.

                        And that will be even more true in a GE. He can't go to the country with the promise of some as yet to be defined settlement subject to EU agreement. He'll be shot out of the water.
                        Its ironic that Corbyn seems to be as terrified of his leaver voters as Cameron was when he created the whole mess. However I think it may help in the coming months that it is clear that the objective of his opposition to the deal is not to get a 2nd referendum but to get a different Brexit. It is much easier to go to the people on the basis that "the Tories can't deliver a good Brexit" than "Brexit is bad". The determining issue will be whether Starmer gets a commitment to a referendum on any deal in a manifesto or a programme for gov't in the a case of a national unity gov't (almost impossible to see the national unity gov't happening with current numbers in HoC)

                        Comment


                          Originally posted by HenryFitz View Post
                          There seems to be a pretty easy win available in the negotiations. The indefinite transition period. No change to the status quo until the future relationship is agreed. It's self-evidently better than the backstop, and has already been agreed in principle.
                          That in effect is the current deal. There is still a need for a backstop however. On 30/03/2019 when the UK leaves the EU and enters that transition period it can do whatever the fup it wants effectively (keeping in mind that like all things doing whatever you want has consequences). Therefore the UK in the absence of a treaty the UK can erect whatever border and trade barriers it choses between NI and ROI on 01/04/2019. It can also take a series of action that would in effect require Ireland to impose such a border in order to maintain compliance with its obligations as an EU member.

                          I think what you meant to say rather than indefinite transition is to extend A50 period until the final agreement on the future relationship is agreed. That is not an easy win because the Brexiteers will feel betrayed if membership drags on forever and the EU does not want to be dealing with this for the next 5-10 years. This is why on sequencing the E said withdrawal first future relationship afterwards. David Davis promised the "battle of the summer" on this issue of sequencing in 2017 and then gave in on day 1 of the formal negotiations without even a nasty press release.

                          Comment


                            Originally posted by AwayFromHome View Post

                            Its ironic that Corbyn seems to be as terrified of his leaver voters as Cameron was when he created the whole mess. However I think it may help in the coming months that it is clear that the objective of his opposition to the deal is not to get a 2nd referendum but to get a different Brexit. It is much easier to go to the people on the basis that "the Tories can't deliver a good Brexit" than "Brexit is bad". The determining issue will be whether Starmer gets a commitment to a referendum on any deal in a manifesto or a programme for gov't in the a case of a national unity gov't (almost impossible to see the national unity gov't happening with current numbers in HoC)


                            Prime electoral triangulation on this is:


                            Corbny pushes for re-negotiation toward "better Brexit" to "honour the referendum" etc

                            But given shifts in what is known, once that deal is on the table, the Starmer lean into a People's Vote is included with a remain option.


                            If they got an opportunity to take that into GE, I think they'd manage to hold what is a very difficult coalition together.


                            Without a GE, it gets so much trickier. They can vote down May's deal in Parliament, but who knows what happens then? To keep leavers in the fold Corbyn has to be seen to be committed to making some form of Brexit happen, but soft Brexit won't appease Remain voters and Labour will be punished for facilitating it.
                            "We will not walk in fear, one of another. We will not be driven into an age of unreason if we dig deep into our history and remember we are not descended from fearful men" Edward R Murrow

                            "Little by little, we have been brought into the present condition in which we are able neither to tolerate the evils from which we suffer, nor the remedies we need to cure them." - Livy


                            "I think that progress has been made by two flames that have always been burning in the human heart. The flame of anger against injustice and the flame of hope that you can build a better world" - Tony Benn

                            Comment


                              Originally posted by Balla Boy View Post



                              Prime electoral triangulation on this is:


                              Corbny pushes for re-negotiation toward "better Brexit" to "honour the referendum" etc

                              But given shifts in what is known, once that deal is on the table, the Starmer lean into a People's Vote is included with a remain option.


                              If they got an opportunity to take that into GE, I think they'd manage to hold what is a very difficult coalition together.


                              Without a GE, it gets so much trickier. They can vote down May's deal in Parliament, but who knows what happens then? To keep leavers in the fold Corbyn has to be seen to be committed to making some form of Brexit happen, but soft Brexit won't appease Remain voters and Labour will be punished for facilitating it.
                              I just don’t understand how there can be a GE without the Tories choosing to call it. A strategy based on a potential GE is unicorns riding on flying pigs.

                              Comment


                                Originally posted by the plastic paddy View Post

                                I just don’t understand how there can be a GE without the Tories choosing to call it. A strategy based on a potential GE is unicorns riding on flying pigs.
                                If May's deal is defeated in Parliament, I genuinely don't see where she goes. I don't know if a GE will happen, but Labour would be right to press for it.

                                If the Prime Minister can't command support in Parliament for her proposal on the biggest issue in facing the country then they should go. In any other era, they would. Unquestionably.

                                But I guess we live in a more cynical political age, possibly.

                                At the very least I think it would be a constitutional crisis. At least on a par with a failure to pass a budget.

                                May is given consent by the Queen based on her ability to form and lead a viable government.
                                "We will not walk in fear, one of another. We will not be driven into an age of unreason if we dig deep into our history and remember we are not descended from fearful men" Edward R Murrow

                                "Little by little, we have been brought into the present condition in which we are able neither to tolerate the evils from which we suffer, nor the remedies we need to cure them." - Livy


                                "I think that progress has been made by two flames that have always been burning in the human heart. The flame of anger against injustice and the flame of hope that you can build a better world" - Tony Benn

                                Comment

                                Working...
                                X