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Brexit referendum and negotiations 2016-19

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    Lots of bad language in this but well argued

    https://mobile.twitter.com/janeygodl...17182005747714

    "There are a lot of points that we’ve left behind and this is with a young group. That probably tells you what they’re capable of and that they’re a very good side.

    Probably next year or the year after next they will take some stopping"

    Anthony Foley, May 2016. Axel RIP

    Comment


      Is there any chance this will be the issue that will lead the centre of the Labour party to split with the Corbynites? A genuine pro EU, pro-Business social democratic party. Would the unions stick with old Labour?

      Comment


        Originally posted by The Last Stand View Post
        Is there any chance this will be the issue that will lead the centre of the Labour party to split with the Corbynites? A genuine pro EU, pro-Business social democratic party. Would the unions stick with old Labour?
        Who knows but it's very very difficult to set up a new party in the UK - the FPTP system means you really need a Macron style movement. I don't see anyone currently in UK politics with enough charisma to build that from the ground up. If Blair wasn't so tainted by Iraq he might have been the guy I suppose

        I'm not so sure it's really needed either. The media have done an incredible job in painting Corbyn as a Trot, and while I'm pished with their handing of Brexit, the actual general policies they have put forward for a GE are fairly mainstream.

        Please support Milford Hospice. Click here to donate.

        Comment


          Yes I know it's RT but ...

          https://www.rt.com/uk/444391-tories-...crash-economy/

          Theresa May’s government are planning to “engineer a financial crash” if parliament fails to back their Brexit deal – in an attempt to frighten MPs into voting it through at a second vote, claims a source close to the PM’s aides.

          Since agreeing a draft Brexit withdrawal deal with the EU on Wednesday, May has had to contend with a string of cabinet resignations and a huge backlash from rebel MPs.

          The Sunday Times reports that, faced with the prospect of the deal being voted down, the UK government will attempt to plunge the financial markets into chaos – in a bid to scare MPs into eventually voting it through on a second vote.


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          Comment


            Originally posted by The Last Stand View Post
            Is there any chance this will be the issue that will lead the centre of the Labour party to split with the Corbynites? A genuine pro EU, pro-Business social democratic party. Would the unions stick with old Labour?
            Not unless they're very foolish. The performance of the LDs shows that there's no demand from the British public for that sort of proposition.

            In the UK - England in particular - the only way of combating Conservatism is for those who are broadly socially minded to co-operate within one party and reach compromise around their differences on a range of issues.

            The party was always a broad church, and it shouldn't be forgotten that it was the Labour "modernisers" that created the notion that there was an all or nothing battle to be won for the "soul of the party". They're now reaping what they sowed, unfortunately.

            And, pedantic a point as it is, it's not the centre of the Labour party. It's the right. And it's not particularly moderate - it's ideologically liberal to a marked extent. The "centre" of the parliamentary party (and it's largest block by some way) are people like Ed Miliband, Emily Thornberry, Angela Rayner, Sadiq Khan (when he was an MP), and the "Open Labour" types (Sobel, Platt, Duffield).

            Those who make noises about splitting are the Progress types. Umunna, Berger, Streeting, Flint et al.

            There's not many of them at all, and too little analysis focuses on that three way split in the PLP.

            "We will not walk in fear, one of another. We will not be driven into an age of unreason if we dig deep into our history and remember we are not descended from fearful men" Edward R Murrow

            "Little by little, we have been brought into the present condition in which we are able neither to tolerate the evils from which we suffer, nor the remedies we need to cure them." - Livy


            "I think that progress has been made by two flames that have always been burning in the human heart. The flame of anger against injustice and the flame of hope that you can build a better world" - Tony Benn

            Comment


              Iain Duncan Smith was fiercely critical of the deal yesterday in parliament, and Dominic Raab has said today that staying in the EU is better than this deal. A statement of the obvious, perhaps. Daniel Hannan has been on the telly saying Theresa May misunderstood the mood of the nation by sacrificing sovereignty for control of immigration. As the Karl Marx of Brexit, what he says will carry some weight. Ultimately, the aim of the ERG is to get this deal shelved, with May's resignation as an inevitable result, and then have one of their boys accede to the throne. They probably have the numbers to do it too, and if the vote goes to the membership, they will pick a Brexiter. May's manoeuvres have been a good effort, but she set the stage for this by calling her general election and now it is time for her just deserts. What the Brexit lads will do is anybody's guess, but I'd expect a transition arrangement and Canada or a game of chicken over no deal.

              Comment


                There are now 89 Tory MPs who have either said outright they will not support the deal or have indicated thus.

                She will need a lot of them to do an about face, a lot of Labour MPs to defy the whip and all of the DUP to vote with her.
                Please support Milford Hospice. Click here to donate.

                Comment


                  What were May's biggest mistakes?
                  - Insisting to the bitter end that the "will of the people" meant Brexit?
                  - Her infamous red lines?
                  - Early sending of A50?
                  - General election flop?

                  She has been an unmitigated disaster for Britain. The current "deal" is farcical compared with full EU membership.

                  Can anybody stop this, even at this late stage?
                  "I don't believe in fairytales," O'Connell once told me, "even though it feels like I've been lucky enough to live through a few. However it ends, I'll feel lucky."
                  Donald McRae, Guardian Rugby, October 2015

                  Comment


                    Originally posted by blackwarrior View Post
                    What were May's biggest mistakes?
                    - Insisting to the bitter end that the "will of the people" meant Brexit?
                    - Her infamous red lines?
                    - Early sending of A50?
                    - General election flop?

                    She has been an unmitigated disaster for Britain. The current "deal" is farcical compared with full EU membership.

                    Can anybody stop this, even at this late stage?
                    The General Election flop made the negotiations impossible. The red lines and the other stuff were just capitulations to political reality. The British people refused to give her a mandate for "her" Brexit and she has spent the last year and a bit stymied by the DUP, the ERG and a few vocal Remainers. She also hasn't been particularly clever though. The UK wide backstop is her idea, and is her model for the future relationship. EFTA minus free movement and budget contributions. Which seems improbable to me.

                    Comment


                      "Do you want trade or control? The extent to which you give up one allows you more of the other. But even now, as we lose our status in the world, it is just an unresolved as it ever was. We don't know where the hell we're going.

                      "Instead of acknowledging this, May has just lied and lied lied. She lied when she said we could make a success of Brexit. She lied when she said we could secure full market access while maintaining full sovereignty. She lied when she said she could get a trade deal before the end of Article 50. She lied when she said there would be no need for transition. She lied when she said it would not need to be extended. She lied when she said Britain might choose between either extension or the backstop. She's lying now when she says this is a good deal for Britain, or that any kind of economic or political success might follow from it, or that it is in the national interest. Her administration has been defined by a relentless attempt to conceal the reality of Brexit from public and parliament, so she can survive another day, another week, another month. It is such a shabby, tawdry spectacle."



                      Ian Dunt in a fine technical assessment of the deal and what's likely to happen next.

                      This is the stark reality of the Brexit deal with the EU Theresa May has come back with. It is intolerable on a democratic, political, economic or logical basis.
                      "I don't believe in fairytales," O'Connell once told me, "even though it feels like I've been lucky enough to live through a few. However it ends, I'll feel lucky."
                      Donald McRae, Guardian Rugby, October 2015

                      Comment


                        Spin upon spin.

                        The idea that someone who has a deal which would avoid financial meltdown - would be responsible for financial meltdown rather than the people who voted for (at least the serious risk of) financial meltdown ERG, Labour, Tory Remainers, SNP is good un.

                        Just goes to show that politicians can argue 2 and 2 is five and people will say "I'm with that that guy- adding up is not everything."
                        Last edited by AdolphusGrigson; 23rd-November-2018, 12:38.
                        ​​​​​​#GiveLeinsterTheHCupNow

                        Originally Posted by mr chips
                        AG gets the responses he does because he is a journalist..

                        Comment


                          Originally posted by blackwarrior View Post
                          What were May's biggest mistakes?
                          - Insisting to the bitter end that the "will of the people" meant Brexit?
                          - Her infamous red lines?
                          - Early sending of A50?
                          - General election flop?

                          She has been an unmitigated disaster for Britain. The current "deal" is farcical compared with full EU membership.

                          Can anybody stop this, even at this late stage?

                          I'm not sure that there were mistakes as such. If they'd delayed A50 they'd be in the same mess further down the line. If she'd not made a balls of the GE, she'd not necessarily have any more command of her Parliamentary party.


                          Overall, her generally terrible performance on all fronts throughout and since the GE has drained her of personal authority, so that's been a big factor. She doesn't have MPs who feel they owe her their seats in the way that Cameron did when he won his majority.


                          In terms of the genuinely appalling deal she's brought back, I think the biggest flaw in her position, and that of Brexiteers generally, is that their only red line has proven to be the end of Freedom of Movement.

                          She's offered up pretty much everything else.

                          "We will not walk in fear, one of another. We will not be driven into an age of unreason if we dig deep into our history and remember we are not descended from fearful men" Edward R Murrow

                          "Little by little, we have been brought into the present condition in which we are able neither to tolerate the evils from which we suffer, nor the remedies we need to cure them." - Livy


                          "I think that progress has been made by two flames that have always been burning in the human heart. The flame of anger against injustice and the flame of hope that you can build a better world" - Tony Benn

                          Comment


                            Originally posted by Balla Boy View Post


                            I'm not sure that there were mistakes as such. If they'd delayed A50 they'd be in the same mess further down the line. If she'd not made a balls of the GE, she'd not necessarily have any more command of her Parliamentary party.


                            Overall, her generally terrible performance on all fronts throughout and since the GE has drained her of personal authority, so that's been a big factor. She doesn't have MPs who feel they owe her their seats in the way that Cameron did when he won his majority.


                            In terms of the genuinely appalling deal she's brought back, I think the biggest flaw in her position, and that of Brexiteers generally, is that their only red line has proven to be the end of Freedom of Movement.

                            She's offered up pretty much everything else.
                            Yep Softly softly Brexit with Freedom of Movement.- basically Cameron + or Cameron - depending on your point of view.
                            ​​​​​​#GiveLeinsterTheHCupNow

                            Originally Posted by mr chips
                            AG gets the responses he does because he is a journalist..

                            Comment


                              Freedom of movement is, or course, a two-way street. The impending restricted movement of UK nationals to EU countries will be a huge setback for a generation or more of young Brits.
                              "I don't believe in fairytales," O'Connell once told me, "even though it feels like I've been lucky enough to live through a few. However it ends, I'll feel lucky."
                              Donald McRae, Guardian Rugby, October 2015

                              Comment


                                Originally posted by blackwarrior View Post
                                Freedom of movement is, or course, a two-way street. The impending restricted movement of UK nationals to EU countries will be a huge setback for a generation or more of young Brits.
                                Absolutely - the British would have to live with choice - until they rejoin.
                                ​​​​​​#GiveLeinsterTheHCupNow

                                Originally Posted by mr chips
                                AG gets the responses he does because he is a journalist..

                                Comment

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