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Brexit referendum and negotiations 2016-19

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    #31
    Originally posted by the plastic paddy View Post
    But one of the good things that comes from the EU, free trade, is not going to end, even with Brexit because the Germans make a lot more out of the deal than the UK.
    It is not straight forward.

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      #32
      Originally posted by The Last Stand View Post
      It is not straight forward.
      Free trade will continue no matter what happens, to suggest otherwise would send voters, in their droves, to the Brexit camp because it insults their intelligence. Cameron has got to make a positive case for staying in Europe, scaremongery will have the opposite affect, IMHO.

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        #33
        Originally posted by the plastic paddy View Post
        But one of the good things that comes from the EU, free trade, is not going to end, even with Brexit because the Germans make a lot more out of the deal than the UK.

        Hmm. I think that's complacent, to be honest. To put the reverse position - the rather paltry compromise that Cameron returned from Brussels with was the absolute maximum that the EU would go to in order to keep Britain in. Do you really think that they won't seek to extract a price should Britain depart?

        I don't think the UK realises just how **** tired the rest of the EU is with its in/out/in/out ballsology. There's no way that the EU is going to allow Sunderland an equal footing with Wolfsburg as a manufacturing base for EU markets.
        "We will not walk in fear, one of another. We will not be driven into an age of unreason if we dig deep into our history and remember we are not descended from fearful men" Edward R Murrow

        "Little by little, we have been brought into the present condition in which we are able neither to tolerate the evils from which we suffer, nor the remedies we need to cure them." - Livy


        "I think that progress has been made by two flames that have always been burning in the human heart. The flame of anger against injustice and the flame of hope that you can build a better world" - Tony Benn

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          #34
          Free movement of goods, people and services is not a given. An Argentinian engineer can't just hop on a plane and work here for example.
          My computer thinks I'm gay
          What's the difference anyway
          When all the people do all day
          Is stare into a phone

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            #35
            Originally posted by the plastic paddy View Post
            Free trade will continue no matter what happens, to suggest otherwise would send voters, in their droves, to the Brexit camp because it insults their intelligence. Cameron has got to make a positive case for staying in Europe, scaremongery will have the opposite affect, IMHO.
            Balla has answered that quite well. The UK Has to negotiate its exit over two years and needs the other 27 MS to agree it by QMV.

            Norway has free trade but for that it contributes to the EU budget and has to transpose many directives.

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              #36
              I hope we don't get to find out, but I very much doubt that a potential end to free trade will feature heavily in the stay in camp. One thing to which voters will not respond positively is being bullied, as was evidenced with the swing to the independence vote in Scotland. It will be an interesting few months, anyway.

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                #37
                What will certainly feature in any 'stay' argument is the UKs perilous position regarding food security, European agriculture massively subvented , the advantages of these market manipulations are unlikely to be shared freely outside the union.

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                  #38
                  Originally posted by bundi View Post
                  What will certainly feature in any 'stay' argument is the UKs perilous position regarding food security, European agriculture massively subvented , the advantages of these market manipulations are unlikely to be shared freely outside the union.
                  Farming and food will have zero bearing on this referendum. British people could not care less about the provenance of their food, memories of being weeks from being starved out of the second war by the u boats have been erased. In their ignorance, many voters would welcome the prospect of farming subsidy ending with Brexit, not that farming subsidy would end with Brexit it would just be the UK government paying it direct.

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                    #39
                    Originally posted by Balla Boy

                    I don't think the UK realises just how **** tired the rest of the EU is with its in/out/in/out ballsology. There's no way that the EU is going to allow Sunderland an equal footing with Wolfsburg as a manufacturing base for EU markets.
                    I think they do. Indeed, a reporter on the Beeb World Service said exactly that after the agreement was made.

                    Boris joining the out camp is a big boost for them. This is going to become a pretty nasty, jingoistic battle, with the flag being hoisted.


                    While people in both camps can wither on about economic pro's and con's, I think the battle grown will be a "them" v "us". Given the overwhelmingly anti Eu nature of the UK press, thats going to be a battle and a half for the stay in side.

                    I was pretty sure of an in vote up until a month ago, but now I'm really not so sure.

                    The in side need some traction, and fast.

                    Otherwise, it'll be a case of " Fog in the Channel, Britain cut off"!
                    Please support Milford Hospice. Click here to donate.

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                      #40
                      Borris it seems went in with both feet and no brain . I don't know,Freudian slip maybe.https://twitter.com/maxkeiser/status/701463584434421760

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                        #41
                        Originally posted by sewa View Post
                        Ireland Inc.
                        Ah Jaysis.

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                          #42
                          Originally posted by the plastic paddy View Post
                          Free trade will continue no matter what happens, to suggest otherwise would send voters, in their droves, to the Brexit camp because it insults their intelligence. Cameron has got to make a positive case for staying in Europe, scaremongery will have the opposite affect, IMHO.
                          In the long term, of course free trade would resume because that's the point of the EU. But in the short-medium term I think you underestimate how inhospitable the EU core would be towards Britain outside the EU. There's a not unjustified perception that Britain wants the enjoy the benefits of being in the European Union without making a proportional contribution.

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                            #43
                            Originally posted by whimpersnap View Post
                            In the long term, of course free trade would resume because that's the point of the EU. But in the short-medium term I think you underestimate how inhospitable the EU core would be towards Britain outside the EU. There's a not unjustified perception that Britain wants the enjoy the benefits of being in the European Union without making a proportional contribution.
                            The UK will really feel it in negotiations with the US as they will not get the same terms as the EU will get. Not only that but they have not had to do real direct trade negotiations for 30 years.

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                              #44
                              Originally posted by bundi View Post
                              Borris it seems went in with both feet and no brain . I don't know,Freudian slip maybe
                              Boris only saying vote no to embarrass Cameron, he just can't accept he made to Conservative leader and PM before himself.
                              Nulla semper amicus, servivit mihi, in iniuriam mihi neminem quem non persolvi

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                                #45
                                Poll in the Guardian saying that Boris is second only to Cameron in terms of who people trust in making their decision on the vote. The pound is losing value which won't upset Osborne.

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