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Brexit referendum and negotiations 2016-19

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    Originally posted by fitzy73 View Post

    It's not just the Tories - a hell of a lot of MPs are going to vote against May based on their constituency vote. There were a fair few backbench Tory MPs today who said they could not support the deal - these were so called "rump" Tories.

    She needs ERG, Pro Remain Tories and DUP to vote with her. All of them.

    I just can't see that happening.
    The ERG are falling over themselves to say they withdrew their letters. Ken Clarke is saying he is going to vote for her Deal and she has brought about a 20% + change in the polls for her personal approval rating. Meanwhile Corbyn is threatening to go into coalition with a bunch of Neanderthals who are opposed to abortion and gay marriage!?!?

    She is going to get her deal through Parliament. The only problem she might have is that, in the process, she might make a rod for her own back by facilitating the removal from power of her single biggest asset, the singularly most incompetent and over exposed party leader British politics has ever seen, and I include Howard and IDS in that calculation, in Corbyn.

    Maybe, just maybe, if someone who has a little more charisma than the produce of the leader’s allotment manages to grab hold of the Labour Party and rescue it from it’s death spiral, there might be a chance of a second vote, but right now May is getting a free ride and hurtling the UK towards Brexit without any meaningful opposition. And, incredibly, her popularity is increasing as a result.

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      I'm willing to wager that she won't (at least the first time around) get the deal through.

      https://www.buzzfeed.com/amphtml/ale...mpression=true

      Of the 84 she will turn some, but not enough. She hasn't a hope of turning the DUP.

      It a numbers thing PP and she doesn't have them.
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        May's deal to go through after defeat in parliament in a referendum. Two options on the menu her deal or Remain.
        ​​​​​​#GiveLeinsterTheHCupNow

        Originally Posted by mr chips
        AG gets the responses he does because he is a journalist..

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          Originally posted by fitzy73 View Post
          I'm willing to wager that she won't (at least the first time around) get the deal through.

          https://www.buzzfeed.com/amphtml/ale...mpression=true

          Of the 84 she will turn some, but not enough. She hasn't a hope of turning the DUP.

          It a numbers thing PP and she doesn't have them.
          I am not sure it will be first time around either but she will get it through, quite possibly with substantial Labour support. I wouldn’t rule out the DUP changing their minds either. And the rats are fleeing the good ship ERG.

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            Gove, Loathsome signed up now. Bit of tinkering at the weekend and all bar JRM and BJ will be on the bus. Those l’ngers will be left behind because they don’t understand the timetable. Meanwhile, Corbyn is claiming he would negotiate a deal without a back stop... and is being condemned by the SDLP for his stance. A matter of time before Labour MPs start expressing support for May’s Deal.

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              Originally posted by AdolphusGrigson View Post
              May's deal to go through after defeat in parliament in a referendum. Two options on the menu her deal or Remain.
              That is the nuclear option which will bring the ERG and DUP into line in a second HOC vote. But I actually think her Deal would beat Remain in the unlikely circumstance it went to a second referendum; not because it is a better option, I hasten to add, but because it comes with an end to FOM. A second referendum on that basis would be ticklish as hell for the Labour Party and a nightmare for ERG and the DUP. I think she has got this sown up...

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                Originally posted by the plastic paddy View Post

                That is the nuclear option which will bring the ERG and DUP into line in a second HOC vote. But I actually think her Deal would beat Remain in the unlikely circumstance it went to a second referendum; not because it is a better option, I hasten to add, but because it comes with an end to FOM. A second referendum on that basis would be ticklish as hell for the Labour Party and a nightmare for ERG and the DUP. I think she has got this sown up...
                Corbyn and DUP now in bed together.

                Coalition of c***s. (Not chaos) .

                May's deal should have just picked up the Irish vote in Britain.
                ​​​​​​#GiveLeinsterTheHCupNow

                Originally Posted by mr chips
                AG gets the responses he does because he is a journalist..

                Comment


                  Originally posted by the plastic paddy View Post

                  I think she has got this sown up...
                  But ... it's still a desperately awful deal. Good politics maybe, terrible governing.
                  "I don't believe in fairytales," O'Connell once told me, "even though it feels like I've been lucky enough to live through a few. However it ends, I'll feel lucky."
                  Donald McRae, Guardian Rugby, October 2015

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                    Originally posted by AwayFromHome View Post
                    Seems like we are going to be watching the Guinness Book for Records attempt for the largest game of chicken ever played in the next month or so. It is clear that only about 35-40 % of the Commons finds this deal to be within their definition of "good". Can May find the 10-15% on the Labour benches who can view it as acceptable? Much attention is paid to the centrist opposition to Brexit and the hard leftist Brexiters, but most of the 230ish Labour MPs have a fairly low profile and will look at this through the lens of how their constituents will be impacted in the immediate future. It is not inconceivable that a large group of them may find this status quo for now approach infinitely preferable to a no-deal outcome. Corbyn didn't strike much of a conciliatory tone at PMQ earlier though so my guess is she won't be able to get the numbers to pass this in the Commons.

                    I don't see any EU Parliament or Government blocking this deal.
                    The game of chicken continues. I don't think my original estimate of what she was going to need was too far off the mark. 25-40 Labour votes will be needed for this deal to pass the Commons. I think she has done well in the past days to minimize that number towards the lower end and with today's announcements on the political declaration on the future relationship I think she will probably have manged to secure some of those needed Labour votes. Her triangulation of the numbers has to be admired.

                    People often criticize politicians for not delivering on their promises but I think its fair to say (whatever your politics) that she is making a decent fist of delivering what she promised when she entered No. 10.

                    My best guess though is that tribalism will probably win out and she will fall short of the Labour numbers required. If the deal gets through it will probably be on the back of a climb down from the ERG and 10 Labour votes or 15-20 Labour/SNP abstentions.(I say SNP because some of their more exotic thinkers may just want to get this out of the way so they can get on with IndyRef 2.0)

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                      Originally posted by blackwarrior View Post
                      But ... it's still a desperately awful deal. Good politics maybe, terrible governing.
                      FOM is all that matters. Terrible deal or no terrible deal.

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                        Bercow indicating that the deal will be tabled as an amendable motion, i.e. MPs will be able to vote on amendments first before voting on whether to accept the deal or not.

                        As someone who would like to see a 2nd referendum and a remain outcome this seems good at face value but there would never be any international treaty ratified if this was normal practice.

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                          Originally posted by AwayFromHome View Post
                          Bercow indicating that the deal will be tabled as an amendable motion, i.e. MPs will be able to vote on amendments first before voting on whether to accept the deal or not.

                          As someone who would like to see a 2nd referendum and a remain outcome this seems good at face value but there would never be any international treaty ratified if this was normal practice.
                          How can it be amenable though? If they change a dot or a comma it's a new document - one which has not been agreed by the EU.

                          Are they really going to go back to the EU and say "here is the new deal we want"?? They'll be laughed out of it.
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                          Comment


                            Originally posted by fitzy73 View Post

                            How can it be amenable though? If they change a dot or a comma it's a new document - one which has not been agreed by the EU.

                            Are they really going to go back to the EU and say "here is the new deal we want"?? They'll be laughed out of it.
                            That was my point about implications for treaties more generally. They may actually get away with it in this instance (EU would probably accept a limited set of amendments to secure a deal and the EU27 are generally more collegial than most international fora) but if the House of Commons or the US Congress decides that it has a right to amend any deal brought back (rather than a right to reject it which of course they should have) then international agreements would become impossible. That might actually be a greater prize for the nationalists than Brexit!

                            However some of the reporting on this suggested that the aim may be for Labour centrists to make acceptance conditional on a second vote! (i.e. the deal would not change from the EU perspective but the ratification process in the UK would become more complicated). That would get Labour out of the accusation that they are stymieing the will of the people by accepting the deal and Brexit if the people do also.

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                              What was required from the start in this process was Parties operating in the 'National interest'.

                              Now with Corbers trying to get his leg over with Arlene and Theresa trying to get her leg over any passing Labour MPs(of either gender) these is still likely to be parliamentary deadlock.

                              Of course the answer is for Corbers to get his leg over with Theresa (or vice versa) in the 'National Interest' or a bunch of MPs from both sides to opt for a 2nd referendum - before the 1st parliamentary vote (which Bercow has now enabled) and agree to put May's deal or Remain on the referendum menu.

                              Allegedly 'the Markets' have priced in a fall in Sterling - but I dont buy that - the markets don't yet think there will be no deal and this will only be a realistic possibility if the 1st parliamentary vote loses and there is no 2nd referendum agreed - at that point I'd say Sterling will fall by about 10% initially and further if there is not an agreement on a way forward.

                              You would think 'the sensible middle' in both main parties will have a chinwag BEFORE the 1st vote and Sterling does a nosedive.
                              ​​​​​​#GiveLeinsterTheHCupNow

                              Originally Posted by mr chips
                              AG gets the responses he does because he is a journalist..

                              Comment


                                It's worth looking up the interview Channel 4 News did about half an hour ago with Pascal Lamy, who was the European Commissioner for Trade from 1999-2004 and is also a former Director General of the World Trade Organisation. It's only a couple of minutes long, but it's as clear and concise as anything I've seen about what the UK is doing to itself.
                                Tis but a scratch.

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