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Brexit referendum and negotiations 2016-19

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    Originally posted by fitzy73 View Post
    May has a presser at 17:00. Will she throw in the towel?
    Will she f’ck. She is tough as old boots and isn’t going anywhere. I tell you, by hook or by crook she will get this deal through. Business is coming out in favour of the deal and the ERG are looking increasingly flustered. Even Ken Clarke has issued a tacit approval of her leadership. The w’nkers Thought they could bully her like they have every Tory leader since Thatcher and she has faced them down. For the first time since the referendum vote I am beginning to think the UK might actually leave the EU.

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      Originally posted by fitzy73 View Post

      What other option is available if the deal is voted down? I'm assuming May stays on; even if she doesn't and a GE is called Labour can run on a platform of offering a second referendum.

      Of course someone mad Brexiteer could take over from May and press the nuclear button (no deal) followed by the nuclear button (big red one).
      There will not be a GE, the fixed term parliament act and Corbyn leading the Labour Party all but rules it out. She will get the deal through because there is no alternative for the Tories that doesn’t involve Corbyn in Downing Street and they will cut off their own thumbs before they facilitate that. I genuinely don’t think people appreciate quite how terrified the Tories are of Corbyn.

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        She doesn't have the numbers PP. There are 40 or so hard core Brexiteer MPs who will vote against her. The DUP would be strung up if they voted with her. Labour will whip votes.

        Again, it's a numbers game. And she doesn't have them.

        I'll send you a box of cider if she does!
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            Originally posted by the plastic paddy View Post

            Will she f’ck. She is tough as old boots and isn’t going anywhere. I tell you, by hook or by crook she will get this deal through. Business is coming out in favour of the deal and the ERG are looking increasingly flustered. Even Ken Clarke has issued a tacit approval of her leadership. The w’nkers Thought they could bully her like they have every Tory leader since Thatcher and she has faced them down. For the first time since the referendum vote I am beginning to think the UK might actually leave the EU.
            The deal is feck all different to what the Labour Party were saying they wanted. At least the ERG are operating on principle - a dangerous stupid principle but a principle. Labour party cosying up to the DUP - if they sink this deal and there is no backstop - that is a disaster for Ireland.

            Business will largely support the deal with Corbers and Moggy and the DUP all risking a no deal.
            ​​​​​​#GiveLeinsterTheHCupNow

            Originally Posted by mr chips
            AG gets the responses he does because he is a journalist..

            Comment


              Originally posted by fitzy73 View Post
              She doesn't have the numbers PP. There are 40 or so hard core Brexiteer MPs who will vote against her. The DUP would be strung up if they voted with her. Labour will whip votes.

              Again, it's a numbers game. And she doesn't have them.

              I'll send you a box of cider if she does!
              The ERG will turn in on each other. And I wouldn’t rule out centrist labour support once the polls show that the public have had enough of the whole business and want to move forward.

              Comment


                A comprehensive poll of 20000 people carried out across the UK last week showed that the electorate has shifted in favour of Remain, by a larger margin than the original Leave vs Remain vote - once the don't knows are removed, it was 54% Remain, 46% Leave. Remain has strengthened in Scotland and NI, while both Wales and England have shifted in favour of it. That's before this week's fun & games, of course.

                On a lighter note, John Crace's Guardian piece has a brilliant one-liner about Raab's resignation - "The cabinet’s loss was geography’s gain." :smile2:
                Tis but a scratch.

                Comment


                  Similar to fitzy's graphic above, this allows you to play god with the voting numbers of the various factions in parliament - shows quite clearly how difficult it will be to get the deal through.

                  https://www.theguardian.com/politics...ugh-parliament
                  Tis but a scratch.

                  Comment


                    Originally posted by the plastic paddy View Post

                    The ERG will turn in on each other. And I wouldn’t rule out centrist labour support once the polls show that the public have had enough of the whole business and want to move forward.
                    That might happen,

                    The Labour party have been saying that the EU has been telling them there is another deal to be had. The EU have now said the negotiations are over. That means the Labour partys position of 'we can get a better deal' doesn't hold up any more.

                    The Labour party now have to come out in favour of a no deal, a 2nd referendum or May's deal.

                    Thems the only 3 choices.
                    ​​​​​​#GiveLeinsterTheHCupNow

                    Originally Posted by mr chips
                    AG gets the responses he does because he is a journalist..

                    Comment


                      The Labour offer was a customs union and free movement, with some state aid privileges repatriated. The counter offer from the EU would probably be better for that than May's pink lines and Gove promising to renege on everything at a later date.

                      Comment


                        Originally posted by HenryFitz View Post
                        The Labour offer was a customs union and free movement, with some state aid privileges repatriated. The counter offer from the EU would probably be better for that than May's pink lines and Gove promising to renege on everything at a later date.
                        There was no way they would have got anything on free movement.

                        but the ship has sailed now.... so they need to select from the available options ... pretending like the ERG ... they can get a better deal is ...real side of the bus stuff
                        ​​​​​​#GiveLeinsterTheHCupNow

                        Originally Posted by mr chips
                        AG gets the responses he does because he is a journalist..

                        Comment


                          Originally posted by AdolphusGrigson View Post

                          There was no way they would have got anything on free movement.

                          but the ship has sailed now.... so they need to select from the available options ... pretending like the ERG ... they can get a better deal is ...real side of the bus stuff
                          You think the EU would not have agreed to free movement? And offered nothing for that concession? The deal is as it is because it was done with the Tory party, which is infested with Brexit pests. This is the best deal such a party could negotiate. The Labour membership is overwhelmingly in favour of Remain. The worst deal such a party would negotiate would be more or less indistinguishable from membership. Which is the best deal available.

                          Comment


                            The usual cliff hanger stuff of negotiations, which is what all this still is. There.......will....be....NO....hard..........Brex it. The Tories would rather give the Falklands, the Isle of Wight and the Isle of Man to the Argies rather than face a hard one. (they'd give them NI too but nobody wants it). The Deal will be voted out. There will be panic, wailing and the Rev Rees Mogg will swallow his bible but the end result will be another referendum. There is it direct from the horse's butt.

                            Comment


                              Originally posted by HenryFitz View Post

                              You think the EU would not have agreed to free movement? And offered nothing for that concession? The deal is as it is because it was done with the Tory party, which is infested with Brexit pests. This is the best deal such a party could negotiate. The Labour membership is overwhelmingly in favour of Remain. The worst deal such a party would negotiate would be more or less indistinguishable from membership. Which is the best deal available.
                              Whether the Labour party would have got a better deal or not is irrelevant now . The Tories made a pigs Mickey of the negotiations is not in doubt.

                              But where we are now means the EU negotiation shutters are down. Labour now can pick from.the available options and that does not include renegotiating with the EU
                              ​​​​​​#GiveLeinsterTheHCupNow

                              Originally Posted by mr chips
                              AG gets the responses he does because he is a journalist..

                              Comment


                                Originally posted by tippete7trees View Post
                                The usual cliff hanger stuff of negotiations, which is what all this still is. There.......will....be....NO....hard..........Brex it. The Tories would rather give the Falklands, the Isle of Wight and the Isle of Man to the Argies rather than face a hard one. (they'd give them NI too but nobody wants it). The Deal will be voted out. There will be panic, wailing and the Rev Rees Mogg will swallow his bible but the end result will be another referendum. There is it direct from the horse's butt.
                                If May falls to the Tory right, then a no deal is a real possibility as the default position, which parliamentary deadlock will result in, is to crash out and the EU righly will not renegotiate with Boris and Co (as they won't with Labour).

                                Labour need to enter into negotiation with May about how they can resolve the mess. This is s mess created by the Tories and now the Labour party need to decide if they want to add to that mess or help sort it.
                                Last edited by AdolphusGrigson; 15th-November-2018, 22:26.
                                ​​​​​​#GiveLeinsterTheHCupNow

                                Originally Posted by mr chips
                                AG gets the responses he does because he is a journalist..

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