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Brexit referendum and negotiations 2016-19

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    Originally posted by Balla Boy View Post
    This is a numbers game now.


    May has 316 MPs in a Parliament of 650. The 9 DUP seats only give her a majority because the Speaker is neutral.

    If the DUP vote against, which they surely will, then you're left with real nip and tuck. How many Tories will rebel? How many Labour MPs will defy Corbyn and Starmer and support the bill? Which way will the 6 Independents go?


    However that breaks out, it's clear that it doesn't need a massive Tory rebellion to defeat this government. The ERG has a broad caucus of about 70. Anna Soubry has put her estimation of the hard core of that at 35.

    And any Labour MP that votes behind May and props her up has a reasonable chance of deselection between now and a GE. And quite rightly.


    So....given that this is the last chance saloon, with no promises of jam tomorrow of the sort that caved Grieve et al in last time, my gut says May can't get this through, and it's a non starter as an agreement.
    A lot of the centrist Labour MPs are facing deselection anyway and May getting this deal through will be devastating for Corbyn which might make deselection less likely. A lot of the ERG will be guided by their constituents who are weary of the battle. I think May will get it through.

    Comment


      Originally posted by Balla Boy View Post
      I stand corrected.....it's already happened. Northern Ireland minister has resigned.
      I expected a lot more than that. She has faced them down. If the ERG drag her down and facilitate a Corbyn government they will never be forgiven by the rank and file. Europe is a minor issue compared to the possibility of a Corbyn government.

      Comment


        Originally posted by the plastic paddy View Post

        I expected a lot more than that. She has faced them down. If the ERG drag her down and facilitate a Corbyn government they will never be forgiven by the rank and file. Europe is a minor issue compared to the possibility of a Corbyn government.

        It's 8.30. I think there'll be more.


        She hasn't "faced anyone down". This heroic language of struggle is inappropriate. She's an incompetent who has clung to power despite her obvious failings, and at the expense of the country. That she still clings to office as she throws this pile of ****e on the table isn't an act of political courage. She's just too venal to resign.

        And I think you're wrong about the ERG. They're ideologues who now see her as a traitor. The knife will go in.

        The worst prime minister in post war history, which is some going after the pig ****er.
        "We will not walk in fear, one of another. We will not be driven into an age of unreason if we dig deep into our history and remember we are not descended from fearful men" Edward R Murrow

        "Little by little, we have been brought into the present condition in which we are able neither to tolerate the evils from which we suffer, nor the remedies we need to cure them." - Livy


        "I think that progress has been made by two flames that have always been burning in the human heart. The flame of anger against injustice and the flame of hope that you can build a better world" - Tony Benn

        Comment


          Originally posted by the plastic paddy View Post

          A lot of the centrist Labour MPs are facing deselection anyway and May getting this deal through will be devastating for Corbyn which might make deselection less likely. A lot of the ERG will be guided by their constituents who are weary of the battle. I think May will get it through.
          A handful, no more. And if they vote with May they'll assure it.


          My only concern is whether Corbyn will whip the vote. If he doesn't, I hope he's gone ASAP.
          "We will not walk in fear, one of another. We will not be driven into an age of unreason if we dig deep into our history and remember we are not descended from fearful men" Edward R Murrow

          "Little by little, we have been brought into the present condition in which we are able neither to tolerate the evils from which we suffer, nor the remedies we need to cure them." - Livy


          "I think that progress has been made by two flames that have always been burning in the human heart. The flame of anger against injustice and the flame of hope that you can build a better world" - Tony Benn

          Comment


            Raab gone. The actual SoS for Brexit doesn’t support the deal.


            Now we’re cooking. Leadership challenge in the offing. I’d expect Javid will go shortly.
            "We will not walk in fear, one of another. We will not be driven into an age of unreason if we dig deep into our history and remember we are not descended from fearful men" Edward R Murrow

            "Little by little, we have been brought into the present condition in which we are able neither to tolerate the evils from which we suffer, nor the remedies we need to cure them." - Livy


            "I think that progress has been made by two flames that have always been burning in the human heart. The flame of anger against injustice and the flame of hope that you can build a better world" - Tony Benn

            Comment


              Mordaunt, McVeigh....anyone with leadership ambitions will go I’d say.
              "We will not walk in fear, one of another. We will not be driven into an age of unreason if we dig deep into our history and remember we are not descended from fearful men" Edward R Murrow

              "Little by little, we have been brought into the present condition in which we are able neither to tolerate the evils from which we suffer, nor the remedies we need to cure them." - Livy


              "I think that progress has been made by two flames that have always been burning in the human heart. The flame of anger against injustice and the flame of hope that you can build a better world" - Tony Benn

              Comment


                I thought, incorrectly, that whatever she and Brussels had thrashed out would be at least considered by her cabinet or she wouldn't have brought it back to London with her

                More fool me


                Someone break out the Abba CD again for her
                I am the million man.

                Comment


                  Gove is currently sticking his head out the window in Whitehall and seeing what way the wind is blowing.
                  Please support Milford Hospice. Click here to donate.

                  Comment


                    This thing has no chance of making it through Parliament, does it?
                    "It’s not the team you support, it’s the club you should support. The team on the pitch will ebb and flow because that’s the nature of sport. No team has ever been successful decade on decade. The club has the history and that’s the passion you should have."

                    Comment


                      Originally posted by Jenta View Post
                      This thing has no chance of making it through Parliament, does it?
                      Parliament seems like a building where the smoke detectors have just started the fire alarm and everyone is heading for the doors this morning.

                      There are so many groups within groups and false dawns with this shambles its hard to know whats going to happen next, never mind the final outcome.

                      Farage probably on a plane up from France as we speak
                      I am the million man.

                      Comment


                        McVey gone.
                        "It’s not the team you support, it’s the club you should support. The team on the pitch will ebb and flow because that’s the nature of sport. No team has ever been successful decade on decade. The club has the history and that’s the passion you should have."

                        Comment


                          Originally posted by Jenta View Post
                          This thing has no chance of making it through Parliament, does it?
                          No. Unless Labour do an about turn. There is no way this passes the 6 tests though. 50 - 60 Hardlines outs will vote against, 20 - 30 pro side against, Labour (mostly) against, DUP have no choice but to vote against.

                          I've asked this before and I'm still not entirely clear on it - if she is defeated can she still go ahead with the deal? Political pressure aside, I *think* she can.
                          Please support Milford Hospice. Click here to donate.

                          Comment


                            Originally posted by fitzy73 View Post

                            No. Unless Labour do an about turn. There is no way this passes the 6 tests though. 50 - 60 Hardlines outs will vote against, 20 - 30 pro side against, Labour (mostly) against, DUP have no choice but to vote against.

                            I've asked this before and I'm still not entirely clear on it - if she is defeated can she still go ahead with the deal? Political pressure aside, I *think* she can.
                            She can’t. I mean she could in theory pass “the deal” but that will then mean passive a raft of measures into law, and she won’t be able to do that.

                            "We will not walk in fear, one of another. We will not be driven into an age of unreason if we dig deep into our history and remember we are not descended from fearful men" Edward R Murrow

                            "Little by little, we have been brought into the present condition in which we are able neither to tolerate the evils from which we suffer, nor the remedies we need to cure them." - Livy


                            "I think that progress has been made by two flames that have always been burning in the human heart. The flame of anger against injustice and the flame of hope that you can build a better world" - Tony Benn

                            Comment




                              Oh, and interesting line I saw re: Brexit die hards in labour. A few, like Skinner, are also Corbyn loyalists and will see a chance to collapse a Tory govt. They won’t all vote in support.

                              its the centrists in Leave seats that are the soft underbelly. They don’t care about damaging Corbyn and are focussed solely on retaining their own seat.
                              "We will not walk in fear, one of another. We will not be driven into an age of unreason if we dig deep into our history and remember we are not descended from fearful men" Edward R Murrow

                              "Little by little, we have been brought into the present condition in which we are able neither to tolerate the evils from which we suffer, nor the remedies we need to cure them." - Livy


                              "I think that progress has been made by two flames that have always been burning in the human heart. The flame of anger against injustice and the flame of hope that you can build a better world" - Tony Benn

                              Comment


                                Will a lot of Remainers on the Labour / Lib Dem side of things weigh this deal up against the possibility of a second referendum? The deal on the table is obviously better for the country than no deal, but if there's a chance that voting this down pushes the idea of a second referendum to the fore they might vote against?
                                "It’s not the team you support, it’s the club you should support. The team on the pitch will ebb and flow because that’s the nature of sport. No team has ever been successful decade on decade. The club has the history and that’s the passion you should have."

                                Comment

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