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Brexit referendum and negotiations 2016-19

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    Originally posted by the plastic paddy View Post
    Michael White has written an article arguing that parliament could ignore the result.


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    I read the piece, and he's always interesting. But even in that he glides pretty quickly over the actual question of it being ignored as he doesn't feel it's practical politically.

    The broader issue that he addresses is the key one - that the referendum isn't ultimately going to shake the terms of UK withdrawal. That will be in the hands of govt and parliament.

    So if, say, the EU were to insist that continued access to the market for a Non-Member UK requires the continued free movement of people (a la Norway) where does the UK stand? Is the UK committed to remaining a member of the EEA? The referendum doesn't address that and won't decide it. Will it be part of EFTA? Switzerland isn't.

    A vote to leave is going to throw up a whole host of questions about what happens next, and none of the Brexiteers have the mandate or the capability to address them as far as I can see.

    A world in which Boris, Farage, Gove and IDS are leading the charge on detailed international agreements really doesn't bear thinking about.
    "We will not walk in fear, one of another. We will not be driven into an age of unreason if we dig deep into our history and remember we are not descended from fearful men" Edward R Murrow

    "Little by little, we have been brought into the present condition in which we are able neither to tolerate the evils from which we suffer, nor the remedies we need to cure them." - Livy


    "I think that progress has been made by two flames that have always been burning in the human heart. The flame of anger against injustice and the flame of hope that you can build a better world" - Tony Benn

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      I listened to radio 4 this morning and there is a big campaign to get people registered to vote by deadline of 12 tonight. The highest ever registration of over 260,000 was yesterday(or Sunday not sure) and 150,000 of those are under 35 years. It is crucial to get young registered and voting. I agree that a high turnout will make a difference and I still believe that Remain will shade it. I do not think that parliament could disregard the vote of the citizens, however if the vote is for Brexit then the terms could be such that a Parliament would have to go back to the country. Those voting for out are essentially voting for speculation as I do not see the EU as offering any nice deals if UK vote to go.
      There will be civil war in the Tory party regardless. We are involved in this wasteful exercise because of the Tory fear of UKIP and the Eurosceptics in their party. It was believed that a referendum in Scotland would put the nationalist argument to bed for a generation; a tight result there makes it look like an empty victory.

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        Originally posted by londongirl View Post
        I listened to radio 4 this morning and there is a big campaign to get people registered to vote by deadline of 12 tonight. The highest ever registration of over 260,000 was yesterday(or Sunday not sure) and 150,000 of those are under 35 years. It is crucial to get young registered and voting. I agree that a high turnout will make a difference and I still believe that Remain will shade it. I do not think that parliament could disregard the vote of the citizens, however if the vote is for Brexit then the terms could be such that a Parliament would have to go back to the country. Those voting for out are essentially voting for speculation as I do not see the EU as offering any nice deals if UK vote to go.
        There will be civil war in the Tory party regardless. We are involved in this wasteful exercise because of the Tory fear of UKIP and the Eurosceptics in their party. It was believed that a referendum in Scotland would put the nationalist argument to bed for a generation; a tight result there makes it look like an empty victory.
        Speaking of empty victories, I was thinking this morning about Cameron and how he'll be remembered. In winning the last GE outright it looked like he'd be written up as the guy who led the Tory party back into office. There are a myriad of ways over the next few months/years in which he could be the guy who consigned it to years of infighting and, possibly, a long term split.
        "We will not walk in fear, one of another. We will not be driven into an age of unreason if we dig deep into our history and remember we are not descended from fearful men" Edward R Murrow

        "Little by little, we have been brought into the present condition in which we are able neither to tolerate the evils from which we suffer, nor the remedies we need to cure them." - Livy


        "I think that progress has been made by two flames that have always been burning in the human heart. The flame of anger against injustice and the flame of hope that you can build a better world" - Tony Benn

        Comment


          Originally posted by londongirl View Post
          I listened to radio 4 this morning and there is a big campaign to get people registered to vote by deadline of 12 tonight. The highest ever registration of over 260,000 was yesterday(or Sunday not sure) and 150,000 of those are under 35 years. It is crucial to get young registered and voting. I agree that a high turnout will make a difference and I still believe that Remain will shade it. I do not think that parliament could disregard the vote of the citizens, however if the vote is for Brexit then the terms could be such that a Parliament would have to go back to the country. Those voting for out are essentially voting for speculation as I do not see the EU as offering any nice deals if UK vote to go.
          There will be civil war in the Tory party regardless. We are involved in this wasteful exercise because of the Tory fear of UKIP and the Eurosceptics in their party. It was believed that a referendum in Scotland would put the nationalist argument to bed for a generation; a tight result there makes it look like an empty victory.
          I cannot agree it is a wasteful exercise. The simple fact is that the UK taxpayer is a net contributor to the EU. Plenty of people think that is value for money, plenty don't but after 41 years it is right that the taxpayers are asked whether they still want to be part of the club. Maybe other EU politicians should ask their employers whether they still want to be part of the club.


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            Originally posted by Balla Boy View Post
            Speaking of empty victories, I was thinking this morning about Cameron and how he'll be remembered. In winning the last GE outright it looked like he'd be written up as the guy who led the Tory party back into office. There are a myriad of ways over the next few months/years in which he could be the guy who consigned it to years of infighting and, possibly, a long term split.
            Wishful thinking, BB. Governing is always the priority for the Tories and
            After the result they will shake hands and get on with it. Osborne V Boris will be a landslide for the latter and Boris will probably win the next election.


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              Originally posted by the plastic paddy View Post
              Wishful thinking, BB. Governing is always the priority for the Tories and
              After the result they will shake hands and get on with it. Osborne V Boris will be a landslide for the latter and Boris will probably win the next election.


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              Major vs Redwood? The Eurosceptics have torn the house down before, and aren't above doing it again. An anonymous MP was quoted in the Guardian the other day as saying "I don't want to stab the Prime Minister in the back. I want to stab him in the front so I can see his face. Our best hope at this point is that he's found with a live boy or a dead girl".

              Gove has betrayed Cameron, as far as Cameron is concerned.

              I'd be very surprised if there was hand shaking.
              "We will not walk in fear, one of another. We will not be driven into an age of unreason if we dig deep into our history and remember we are not descended from fearful men" Edward R Murrow

              "Little by little, we have been brought into the present condition in which we are able neither to tolerate the evils from which we suffer, nor the remedies we need to cure them." - Livy


              "I think that progress has been made by two flames that have always been burning in the human heart. The flame of anger against injustice and the flame of hope that you can build a better world" - Tony Benn

              Comment


                Originally posted by Balla Boy View Post
                Major vs Redwood? The Eurosceptics have torn the house down before, and aren't above doing it again. An anonymous MP was quoted in the Guardian the other day as saying "I don't want to stab the Prime Minister in the back. I want to stab him in the front so I can see his face. Our best hope at this point is that he's found with a live boy or a dead girl".

                Gove has betrayed Cameron, as far as Cameron is concerned.

                I'd be very surprised if there was hand shaking.
                Cameron will be gone by the end of 2017, regardless of the result of the referendum, and Boris will be the next PM. If Corbyn is still Labour leader in 2020, Boris will win the election with a 100 seat majority at least.


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                  Originally posted by the plastic paddy View Post
                  Cameron will be gone by the end of 2017, regardless of the result of the referendum, and Boris will be the next PM. If Corbyn is still Labour leader in 2020, Boris will win the election with a 100 seat majority at least.


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                  I'd be amazed. I think he's been exposed as a thorough going light weight in this process, and has sacrificed his reputation as being outside the "nasty party" bracket with some of his racist lunging.

                  When you have the likes of Matthew Paris going on the attack, you know that a fair chunk of the party is railing against him. In the Tory structure, MPs choose 2 candidates to go forward to member vote, rather than the large group that Labour fielded.

                  Generally, that has meant the party aligning behind compromise candidates chosen to knock an apparent certainty to the side. Major won because enough people disliked Heseltine. Hague won because enough people disliked Clarke. IDS won because he wasn't Portillo or Clarke. David Davis was the front runner before Cameron overhauled him.

                  The Tory party doesn't have a great track record in handing it's notional stars the reigns. Largely because it's Parliamentary party is packed with people who have crafted the bearing of grudges to a fine art.
                  "We will not walk in fear, one of another. We will not be driven into an age of unreason if we dig deep into our history and remember we are not descended from fearful men" Edward R Murrow

                  "Little by little, we have been brought into the present condition in which we are able neither to tolerate the evils from which we suffer, nor the remedies we need to cure them." - Livy


                  "I think that progress has been made by two flames that have always been burning in the human heart. The flame of anger against injustice and the flame of hope that you can build a better world" - Tony Benn

                  Comment


                    Brexit referendum taking place on Thurs 23rd June 2016

                    Originally posted by Balla Boy View Post
                    I'd be amazed. I think he's been exposed as a thorough going light weight in this process, and has sacrificed his reputation as being outside the "nasty party" bracket with some of his racist lunging.

                    When you have the likes of Matthew Paris going on the attack, you know that a fair chunk of the party is railing against him. In the Tory structure, MPs choose 2 candidates to go forward to member vote, rather than the large group that Labour fielded.

                    Generally, that has meant the party aligning behind compromise candidates chosen to knock an apparent certainty to the side. Major won because enough people disliked Heseltine. Hague won because enough people disliked Clarke. IDS won because he wasn't Portillo or Clarke. David Davis was the front runner before Cameron overhauled him.

                    The Tory party doesn't have a great track record in handing it's notional stars the reigns. Largely because it's Parliamentary party is packed with people who have crafted the bearing of grudges to a fine art.
                    He is extremely popular among the membership, this process had raised his profile and he is winning the argument, judging by the polls. And he won two mayoral elections in London as a Tory. I think he is a much sharper operator than people credit. That said, he would be a bad PM, imho.

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                    Last edited by the plastic paddy; 7-June-2016, 12:25.

                    Comment


                      Originally posted by the plastic paddy View Post
                      He is extremely popular among the membership, this process had raised his profile and he is winning the argument, judging by the polls. And he won two mayoral elections in London as a Tory. I think he is a much sharper operator than people credit. That said, he would be a bad PM, imho.

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                      Corbyn is popular with his members too. And Ken Livingstone won two Mayoral elections. I think the higher he climbs the more he'll be exposed.
                      "We will not walk in fear, one of another. We will not be driven into an age of unreason if we dig deep into our history and remember we are not descended from fearful men" Edward R Murrow

                      "Little by little, we have been brought into the present condition in which we are able neither to tolerate the evils from which we suffer, nor the remedies we need to cure them." - Livy


                      "I think that progress has been made by two flames that have always been burning in the human heart. The flame of anger against injustice and the flame of hope that you can build a better world" - Tony Benn

                      Comment


                        Originally posted by Balla Boy View Post
                        Corbyn is popular with his members too. And Ken Livingstone won two Mayoral elections. I think the higher he climbs the more he'll be exposed.
                        London is a very left wing city to have a Tory mayor.


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                          Boris's big success was coming across/actually being such a harmless-looking buffoon that people forgot or didn't realise he was a tory.

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                            Originally posted by whimpersnap View Post
                            Boris's big success was coming across/actually being such a harmless-looking buffoon that people forgot or didn't realise he was a tory.
                            Do you think that would be enough to win a second London Mayoralty? Sorry but I don't believe that the London electorate would reelect a fella on the basis that he is a bit of a clown.


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                              Originally posted by the plastic paddy View Post
                              Do you think that would be enough to win a second London Mayoralty? Sorry but I don't believe that the London electorate would reelect a fella on the basis that he is a bit of a clown.


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                              Well it's the only explanation that reflects moderately well on them. Then again they elected Livingstone twice in a row too so maybe the voters of London are actually just thick as pig****.

                              Comment


                                Is it true that Turkey and Iceland enjoy tariff free trade with the rest of Europe? If yes, do they pay for access?


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