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Brexit referendum and negotiations 2016-19

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    Originally posted by Old Dog View Post
    Presumably you didn't study Anthony Eden in hedge school.
    Or Edward Heath or Jim Callaghan or indeed Maggie.


    Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk

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      Ambrose Evans-Pritchard
      27 JUNE 2016 • 6:50PM
      Italy is preparing a €40bn rescue of its financial system as bank shares collapse on the Milan bourse and the powerful after-shocks of Brexit shake European markets.


      An Italian government task force is watching events hour by hour, pledging all steps necessary to ensure the stability of the banks. “Italy will do everything necessary to reassure people,” said premier Matteo Renzi.


      “This is the moment of truth we have all been waiting for a long time. We just didn’t know it would be Brexit that set the elephant loose,” said a top Italian banker.


      The share price of banks crashed for a second trading day, with Intesa Sanpaolo off 12.5pc, and falls of 12pc for Banka MPS, 10.4pc for Mediobana, and 8pc for Unicredit. These lenders have lost a third of their value since Britain’s referendum.


      “When Britain sneezes, Italy catches a cold. It is the weakest link in the European chain,” said Lorenzo Codogno, former director-general of the Italian treasury and now at LC Macro Advisors.


      The country is the first serious casualty of Brexit contagion and a reminder that the economic destinies of Britain and the rest of Europe are intimately entwined. Morgan Stanley warned in a new report that eurozone GDP would contract by almost as much as British GDP in a "high stress scenario".


      Italian officials are studying a direct state recapitalisation of the banks, to be funded by a special bond issue. They also want a moratorium of so-called ‘bail-in’ rules and bondholder write-downs, but these steps are impossible under EU laws. Mr Renzi raised the subject urgently at a meeting with German Chancellor Angela Merkel and French president Francois Hollande at a Brexit summit in Berlin on Monday.


      “There has to be a suspension of the bail-in rules and state aid rules at the highest political level in the EU, otherwise I don’t see how this can work,” said Mr Codogno.


      Unlike the eurozone debt crisis in 2011-2012, there is no serious trouble yet in the sovereign debt markets. The ECB is effectively capping yields under quantitative easing.


      The stress gauge in this episode is the health of the private banks. The Euro STOXX index of bank stocks has collapsed by half since last July, and is now probing depths seen in the white heat of the debt crisis. British bank shares have also plummeted since Brexit but this has no systemic implication so far. It chiefly reflects recession fears, and potential loss of access to the EU market for business.




      The share price of Italy's biggest bank Unicredit has collapsed
      Italy’s banks are the Achilles Heel of the eurozone financial system. Non-performing loans have ratcheted up to 18pc of total balance sheets as a result the country’s slide into depression after the Lehman crisis.


      The new bail-in reform this year has brought matters to a head, catching EU authorities off guard. It was intended to protect taxpayers by ensuring that creditors suffer major losses first if a bank gets into trouble, but was badly designed and has led to a flight from bank shares. The Bank of Italy has called for a complete overhaul of the bail-in rules.


      It is now almost impossible for Italian banks to raise capital. They are caught in a pincer as the ECB simultaneously demands compliance with tougher capital adequacy buffers, in some case demanding fresh infusions of capital three or four times. Mr Codogno said the ECB is unwittingly destabilizing the banks in an overzealous attempt to make Europe’s banks safer.


      Italy is now paralyzed under the existing eurozone structure. Analysts say it desperately needs a US-style bank rescue along the lines of the ‘TARP’ in 2008, which used federal funds to mop up bad assets and stabilize the banks. This is forbidden by the eurozone.


      The government introduced a €5bn rescue fund called Atlante earlier this year, but this was funded largely by the banks themselves rather than the state and has been overwhelmed by events.


      Mr Codogno said Italy is caught in a low-growth trap that is slowly eroding debt dynamics. “I don’t think the Italian system is about to blow up. We could muddle through for years, but we need to get out of this loop,” he said.


      Italy's public debt has jumped despite austerity measures. There is little buffer left against a global downturn
      Hedge fund veteran George Soros warned that Italy faces the risk of a “full-blown banking crisis” that could bring the rebel Five Star Movement to power as early as next year.


      The banking squeeze has become politically explosive in Italy after thousands of small depositors were wiped out at four regional banks late last year. They were classified as junior bondholders, even though most of them were just ordinary savers who did not realize what was being done with their money.


      Mr Renzi may be forced to take matters into his own hands and enact a unilateral sovereign rescue of the Italian banking system in defiance of the EU, unless he wins concessions soon from Brussels. Those who know him say he will not go down in flames for the sake of European ideological purity.
      My computer thinks I'm gay
      What's the difference anyway
      When all the people do all day
      Is stare into a phone

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        Irish passport office in London forecasting 1 million passport applications.

        Won't it take years to process that number?

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          Originally posted by mikerob View Post
          Irish passport office in London forecasting 1 million passport applications.

          Won't it take years to process that number?
          Who knows? They don't answer the phone. In fact, when you phone the number on their website you get an automated message telling you that they don't answer the phone and to stop phoning them.

          I can't see "dealing with an enormous surge in demand" being slap bang in their sweet spot, to be honest.
          "We will not walk in fear, one of another. We will not be driven into an age of unreason if we dig deep into our history and remember we are not descended from fearful men" Edward R Murrow

          "Little by little, we have been brought into the present condition in which we are able neither to tolerate the evils from which we suffer, nor the remedies we need to cure them." - Livy


          "I think that progress has been made by two flames that have always been burning in the human heart. The flame of anger against injustice and the flame of hope that you can build a better world" - Tony Benn

          Comment


            Originally posted by mikerob View Post
            Irish passport office in London forecasting 1 million passport applications.

            Won't it take years to process that number?
            Then O'Neill and Joe will have much more available "irish" players... :D
            The Scots (originally Irish, but by now Scotch) were at this time inhabiting Ireland, having driven the Irish (Picts) out of Scotland; while the Picts (originally Scots) were now Irish (living in brackets) and vice versa. It is essential to keep these distinctions clearly in mind (and verce visa).

            Comment


              Originally posted by mikerob View Post

              Irish passport office in London forecasting 1 million passport applications.

              Won't it take years to process that number?
              Yes - maybe we'll recruit some redundant UK Eurocrats to help out.

              And it's time for the government to double - no treble - the application fee! Because €80 for a 10 year passport is a real steal!
              New infraction avoidance policy: a post may be described as imbecilic, but its author should never be described as an imbecile.

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                German MEP Christian Ehler, a member of Angela Merkel's Christian Democrat Party, says there is "no other way" for the UK to start negotiations other than by triggering Article 50.
                There will be "no back door" and no informal negotiations, he tells The World at One.
                He suggests that the UK cannot be "Switzerland with nukes and a global perspective", adding: "We are going to expel Switzerland at the beginning of the next year from all of the European programmes" because the Swiss people rejected freedom of movement in a recent referendum.
                Why should we treat anyone else differently than we treat Switzerland?"

                My computer thinks I'm gay
                What's the difference anyway
                When all the people do all day
                Is stare into a phone

                Comment


                  Depending on what he was aiming to do, that speech was dreadful. He's Alan Partridge.
                  "We will not walk in fear, one of another. We will not be driven into an age of unreason if we dig deep into our history and remember we are not descended from fearful men" Edward R Murrow

                  "Little by little, we have been brought into the present condition in which we are able neither to tolerate the evils from which we suffer, nor the remedies we need to cure them." - Livy


                  "I think that progress has been made by two flames that have always been burning in the human heart. The flame of anger against injustice and the flame of hope that you can build a better world" - Tony Benn

                  Comment


                    Laura Kuenssberg
                    @bbclaurak


                    Meanwhile at home... 23 shadow ministers are left, 52 frontbenchers have now resigned - shadow cabinet met missing 7 or 8 posts
                    My computer thinks I'm gay
                    What's the difference anyway
                    When all the people do all day
                    Is stare into a phone

                    Comment


                      Originally posted by sewa View Post
                      Laura Kuenssberg
                      @bbclaurak


                      Meanwhile at home... 23 shadow ministers are left, 52 frontbenchers have now resigned - shadow cabinet met missing 7 or 8 posts

                      And Diane "Squealer" Abbott is appealing to the £3 yellowpack Labour Party members to save Jeremy.

                      To the thinking man, it's all eerily reminiscent of the way that Napoleon deployed the sheep in Animal Farm; although I doubt that either Abbott or Corbyn have reached the level of emotional intelligence required to understand Orwell's message.
                      New infraction avoidance policy: a post may be described as imbecilic, but its author should never be described as an imbecile.

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                        Tory and labour party chaos.

                        LibDems wherefore art thou?

                        Tuition fees, all is forgiven...
                        Last edited by AdolphusGrigson; 28th-June-2016, 14:08.
                        ​​​​​​#GiveLeinsterTheHCupNow

                        Originally Posted by mr chips
                        AG gets the responses he does because he is a journalist..

                        Comment


                          Originally posted by mikerob View Post
                          Irish passport office in London forecasting 1 million passport applications.

                          Won't it take years to process that number?
                          It's not just as easy as applying for a passport. Anyone claiming a passport through their grandparents, for example, has to register to become a citizen. And you need a sh*t load of evidence to prove that link.

                          I know, because for months I've been bending the Mrs' ear to get a move on (her granny was Irish) but she genuinely didn't think an out vote was plausible.

                          On Friday she suddenly became more Irish than Tony Cascarino.
                          Please support Milford Hospice. Click here to donate.

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                            Farage really is some pr(ck. The EU holds most of the cards - antagonising them really isn't wise at the moment.
                            Please support Milford Hospice. Click here to donate.

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                              Originally posted by fitzy73 View Post

                              It's not just as easy as applying for a passport. Anyone claiming a passport through their grandparents, for example, has to register to become a citizen. And you need a sh*t load of evidence to prove that link.

                              I know, because for months I've been bending the Mrs' ear to get a move on (her granny was Irish) but she genuinely didn't think an out vote was plausible.

                              Start here: https://www.dfa.ie/passports-citizen...foreign-birth/

                              Now.

                              Today.
                              New infraction avoidance policy: a post may be described as imbecilic, but its author should never be described as an imbecile.

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                                Originally posted by fitzy73 View Post
                                Farage really is some pr(ck. The EU holds most of the cards - antagonising them really isn't wise at the moment.
                                Come on - denied a platform at home having pulled off the biggest political manouvere of our times he deserves his moment - excellent speech.
                                ​​​​​​#GiveLeinsterTheHCupNow

                                Originally Posted by mr chips
                                AG gets the responses he does because he is a journalist..

                                Comment

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