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Brexit referendum and negotiations 2016-18

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    Keep your eyes on the bigger picture. MPs against crashing out will do whatever it takes to stop it and they will manage it somehow with the connivance of the EU is necessary. The big picture is this: The ERGs think they are Barcelona and Ireland is Shamrock Rovers and when push comes to shove they will get what they want. They are mistaken. A better analogy is The ERGs are Hitler's Germany, Ireland is Poland and the EU is Britain.
    Ignore noise and the Marian Fcuk-Lucans, crashing out would be Armageddon for the UK.
    When the Irish/British negotiations over NI were dragging on and the PIRA decided to re concentrate minds by blowing up different parts of London City every now and then...... not to mention Enniskillen...........the wailing and teeth gnashing could be heard on the moon's surface. "Now there is NO possibility of an agreement!!" "Send the paras in to the Falls to clear it out once and for all" etc. Reality is when people cool down they start to be realistic about what will work.
    If we got to 1 hour to Halloween and crashing was immanent I'd predict a parliamentary coup or something similar.
    Nobody wants a 'no deal' crash and they'll wriggle out of as the witching hour approaches.
    A 2nd referendum is the sensible way forward.

    Comment


      Originally posted by tippete7trees View Post

      True. But that's because he knows it's pointless. So his strategy was to make 'no deal' his apparent goal. It's pointless negotiating if you have NO leverage. They actually think the EU, in this situation will ditch Ireland, and/or massive pressure will come on Ireland to compromise. They think like this because they haven't a rashers regarding the thinking in Dublin or Brussels. There will not be a crashing out for a number of reasons and IF there was, Doris himself would be the 1st casualty as Britain would likely plummet into a recession with negative inflation. No, he's bluffing for the moment to see if they get anything from that and when not a GE will be next on the agenda even if that's through a vote of no confidence in Doris which a good number of Tories will back. He might call it himself if they think they have decent poll numbers.

      Johnson wants a hard exit, because it both kills the Brexit party and fulfills the "reset" ******** he has subscribed to. This isn't a bluff, this is actually what he wants.

      I'd imagine Cummings is actually praying Corbyn calls a no confidence vote in early Sept as it plays exactly into their strategy.

      So for me, GE after Brexit has been delivered.
      ​​​​
      In the event of a hard exit, I think the Tories would actually win a majority; remain is split left, right and centre and their will be cohort of jingoistic old fools who will row in behind the "blitz spirit".

      There are only a handful of plays the remain side have, but they are too disjointed presently to be effective as an opposition to this coup.



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      Comment


        Despair and panic. Panic and despair.

        You are doing Cummings job for him and so is the Guardian.

        The Brexiteers have long accepted that no-deal was the only Brxit possible as the downside can be sold as the EU's fault. Cummings knows that there is one chance left to deliver this. I think Boris was right when he said the odds of ne deal were 1 in 1,000,000. what he lied about were that they were still aiming for that.

        There are multiple routes to prevent no deal but they rely generally on calm heads.

        Comment


          My despair is based on what I believe is the most likely outcome. I'd rather not see a no deal, but tell me what the "multiple" routes are then?

          Because you'll find that the few routes that are available have some fairly large caveats attached.


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            There are two clear facts on the ground and any assessment of scenarios need to be anchored in BOTH. One of course is that no-deal departure at midnight on 31 October is the default option. However the second is that there is no majority in parliament for no-deal and no majority among the public for no deal (no poll has found more that 30% in favour of it and it can be assumed that some of those expressing themselves to be in favor are just "pulling on the white jersey", i.e. not wanting to undermine the governments negotiating position while not actually wanting a no deal outcome). No deal is a fringe preference.

            Multiple options:
            1. Forcing a GE while extending A50. Under the fixed term parliaments act BoJo cannot just call a GE. Labour would need to support this like in 2017. The price would be A50 extension as there is no way that enough Labour MPs vote for a dissolution that locks in no-deal.
            2. No confidence motion in BoJo along with national unity government under Starmer, Lucas, Cable or even Hammond with A50 extension and GE early next year.
            3. Legislation to tie BoJo government's hands to avoid no-deal (i.e. change the default) and let him continue as PM under fire from all sides like May.

            Of course all of these options have challenges. The last and most important point to bare in mind is that in the short run the implications and pain of no-deal are mainly in the hands of the EU. If there was a view that a government in firm control was pressing ahead with no-deal then the EU could be expected to make them feel the full pain of the choice (3 day delays both ways at Calais, NO services trade, airlines unable to operate after March next year or whenever the existing agreement ends).

            The risks of chlorinated chickens and other non compliant goods crossing borders in the short run is low. UK business and UK border control will still be functioning under EU rules on 1 November because making changes would be MORE costly than continuing with existing practices. Therefore if the EU sees that the no-deal government are on the brink of teetering they can dial up and down the consequences on a daily basis.

            Comment


              Originally posted by AwayFromHome View Post
              Multiple options:
              1. Forcing a GE while extending A50. Under the fixed term parliaments act BoJo cannot just call a GE. Labour would need to support this like in 2017. The price would be A50 extension as there is no way that enough Labour MPs vote for a dissolution that locks in no-deal.
              2. No confidence motion in BoJo along with national unity government under Starmer, Lucas, Cable or even Hammond with A50 extension and GE early next year.
              3. Legislation to tie BoJo government's hands to avoid no-deal (i.e. change the default) and let him continue as PM under fire from all sides like May.
              1. Agree. This won't happen so a red herring

              2. The national unity govt is, frankly, the longest of long shots. Corbyn won't stand aside, Swinson won't go near any unity govt unless he does, the SNP distrust the Lib Dems. All this to be put aside in 14 days? Sadly, that's unicorn Brexiteer stuff.

              3. They would need to suspend standing order 48, get through committees and all the stages legislation has to got through. A possible scenario, but there are a host of practical obstacles.

              So multiple option are really two options, neither of which are very strong contenders for actually happening.

              If I were gaming this, the simplest, easiest thing to do would be to lay down an amendment to the Fixed Term Parliament Act requiring the PM to set a date before the Brexit deadline. Bercow would need to allow the motion - there would be uproar, but I think he would. There are issues around the time it takes to organise an election, and at best it would only be a matter of days before the deadline. And if it's a hung Parliament .....

              The despair I'm feeling is borne out by probability: you may be right that there are some mechanisms to stop no deal but there are many, many reasons why they will just stumble over the cliff.


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              Comment


                Originally posted by AwayFromHome View Post
                There are two clear facts on the ground and any assessment of scenarios need to be anchored in BOTH. One of course is that no-deal departure at midnight on 31 October is the default option. However the second is that there is no majority in parliament for no-deal and no majority among the public for no deal (no poll has found more that 30% in favour of it and it can be assumed that some of those expressing themselves to be in favor are just "pulling on the white jersey", i.e. not wanting to undermine the governments negotiating position while not actually wanting a no deal outcome). No deal is a fringe preference.

                Multiple options:
                1. Forcing a GE while extending A50. Under the fixed term parliaments act BoJo cannot just call a GE. Labour would need to support this like in 2017. The price would be A50 extension as there is no way that enough Labour MPs vote for a dissolution that locks in no-deal.
                2. No confidence motion in BoJo along with national unity government under Starmer, Lucas, Cable or even Hammond with A50 extension and GE early next year.
                3. Legislation to tie BoJo government's hands to avoid no-deal (i.e. change the default) and let him continue as PM under fire from all sides like May.

                Of course all of these options have challenges. The last and most important point to bare in mind is that in the short run the implications and pain of no-deal are mainly in the hands of the EU. If there was a view that a government in firm control was pressing ahead with no-deal then the EU could be expected to make them feel the full pain of the choice (3 day delays both ways at Calais, NO services trade, airlines unable to operate after March next year or whenever the existing agreement ends).

                The risks of chlorinated chickens and other non compliant goods crossing borders in the short run is low. UK business and UK border control will still be functioning under EU rules on 1 November because making changes would be MORE costly than continuing with existing practices. Therefore if the EU sees that the no-deal government are on the brink of teetering they can dial up and down the consequences on a daily basis.
                In other words, Doris is basically bluffing because any other option is just Theresa may Mark 2. He's hoping that whatever emerges out of the shenanigans will give him a fighting chance of winning a majority in the coming GE. It won't because there's a big constituency out there waiting to punish Doris, the Tories and all their works. The Remainers on all sides just need a bit of cool thinking, get their ducks in a row, and they'll see off SS-Sturmscharführer Grease-Dogg and the rest of the Bar Stewards.
                Bannon is a deluded weirdo.Go ahead, break the system, you'll be the last one asked to put it together again.

                Comment


                  Making Britain Great Again

                  Comment




                    "Every photo of Cummings going into Downing Street sees him shiftily meeting the camera’s gaze with the same defensive sneer you’d see on the proprietor of a holiday caravan park who has just been released on police bail after a fatal gas explosion thought to have been caused by poor maintenance" (Grauniad)

                    Comment


                      Seems very hard to fathom but it's beginning to look as if Doris and the Ergs really did believe that the EU would ditch the backstop rather than face a 'no deal' Brexit. Because after a week of spitting on even the suggestion of negotiating with the EU there's a fair amount of wriggling going on in sending out feelers. It looks like the kind of amateurish wheeze a bunch of schoolboys would try thinking blackmail was an easy peasy get rich quick jape.

                      Comment


                        Parliament (+Bercow) blocking 'no deal' carries the bonus of strangulating Doris' jape as PM before it even gets started. His career will plunge like a harpooned whale.

                        Comment



                          So much confusion among those looking to stop no deal, as far as I can see. Labour want Corbyn in as caretaker to call a GE on the basis that Parliament keeps voting down a Second Referendum, and that the Referendum will have more legitimacy if it's implemented by a Govt with that in its manifesto at a GE.

                          Lib Dems say vote of NC, then an immediate second referendum. They're talking broadly of "figures who can command a majority", but that seems to be the extent of the plan. I've not really seen any suggestion that they can get the numbers for a 2nd ref. This is largely due to Labour MPs who have voted against a 2nd Ref before, but wouldn't dare to support Johnson in a vote of NC as far as I can see.

                          Greens and Nats, and even Tory rebels, talking to Corbyn.

                          If the LDs don't cough, I don't see a way forward. Swinson has played her hand badly in ruling out co-operation with the leader of the opposition from day 1.
                          "We will not walk in fear, one of another. We will not be driven into an age of unreason if we dig deep into our history and remember we are not descended from fearful men" Edward R Murrow

                          "Little by little, we have been brought into the present condition in which we are able neither to tolerate the evils from which we suffer, nor the remedies we need to cure them." - Livy


                          "I think that progress has been made by two flames that have always been burning in the human heart. The flame of anger against injustice and the flame of hope that you can build a better world" - Tony Benn

                          Comment


                            I'd say Vince Cable is fairly angry with himself for stepping down now. He could have won 60-100 seats in a GE. Swinson sh!tting the bed so much in the last 48 hours makes the Lib Dems a much less credible entity. (This is not really a blessing for Labour though as it is likely to lead to Conservatives holding on to 40-50 very vulnerable seats across the south east and south west).

                            I think the public letter this week was the shrewdest piece of politics Corbyn has played since becoming leader. The coming weeks will show whether that was him upping his game or just luck.

                            Comment


                              If Comrade Corbyn holds his nerve Princess Swinson will enlist for even the Red Army Stalinists before allowing 'No Deal'

                              Comment


                                This said, it's hard to imagine Jeremy Corbyn unifying a common anti-brexit deal with Greens, Lib-Dems and Tory rebels, when you already see how he struggles to keep a clear line in the Labour and you see the bad results in the last elections. And claiming the post of (even transitional) PM for himself shows how his first objective his to become the caliph at the place of the caliph as we say here.
                                BB, you wrote "caretaker of GE", I am afraid this man will more likely be the undertaker of Labour like Hollande killed the Parti Socialiste during is mandate as President of my country...
                                "To be energetic and self-sufficing is to be happy; but while one desire remains in the heart happiness may not come there. For to desire is to be incomplete: it is the badge of dependence, the signal of unhappiness, and to be freed from that is to be freed from every fetter that can possibly be forged." (James Stephens, Deirdre)

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