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Brexit referendum and negotiations 2016-18

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    Hard not to see Johnson's Cabinet picks and his No Deal posing as an attempt to stem the flow of support to the Brexit Party. A few more weeks of sabre rattling and he could well call a snap GE. He will frame it as a rallying cry to give him a majority to deal with Brussels as the only party capable of delivering Brexit and of saving the Union.
    I'd imagine that Cummings is in there purely to plot an election campaign and the Tories have already been A/B testing hundreds of facebook adverts. So the shadow online election campaign may in fact have already begun.
    Munster – Champions of Europe 2006, 2008, 2020.

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        The first few days of Nero haven't gone that well. A rake of people can out to boo him in Scotland, and the bounce he got as new party leader has been tiny. The pound is falling through the floor, becoming the defacto opposition to a no deal.

        The only thing going for a GE is that any opposition to the Tories is fragmented. The LD and Labour will not enter in an election pact, and Corbyns continued ambivalent attitude to Europe means it's hard for voters to know where to turn.

        ​​
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          Originally posted by fitzy73 View Post
          The first few days of Nero haven't gone that well. A rake of people can out to boo him in Scotland, and the bounce he got as new party leader has been tiny. The pound is falling through the floor, becoming the defacto opposition to a no deal.

          The only thing going for a GE is that any opposition to the Tories is fragmented. The LD and Labour will not enter in an election pact, and Corbyns continued ambivalent attitude to Europe means it's hard for voters to know where to turn.

          ​​
          Corbyn has been a disgrace. No vision. No backbone.

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            These are defining times for Leo and FG. He needs to look Doris in one eye and spit in the other cock-eye. "No deal"? Bring it on! Fcuking clown!

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              I may have this wrong, and God knows the UK electorate (+ body politic) have been a conundrum since 2016, but I think the likely outcome is now a GE , followed by a 2nd referendum with labour, the LDs and maybe greens distancing themselves from the conservative brexit fiasco and each of them trying to consign both the conservatives and Brexit to history together....

              Boris and his war cabinet are only heightening tensions and the probability of an electoral lashing...
              good riddance to them, but I don't fancy Corbyn either tbh...
              ____________________________________________
              Munster were great when they were Munster.

              alas they are just north munster now.......
              ____________________________________________

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                Originally posted by Daithi View Post
                I may have this wrong, and God knows the UK electorate (+ body politic) have been a conundrum since 2016, but I think the likely outcome is now a GE , followed by a 2nd referendum with labour, the LDs and maybe greens distancing themselves from the conservative brexit fiasco and each of them trying to consign both the conservatives and Brexit to history together....

                Boris and his war cabinet are only heightening tensions and the probability of an electoral lashing...
                good riddance to them, but I don't fancy Corbyn either tbh...
                Only if Labour can rid themselves of Corbyn soon - a lot of middle ground Labour abhor him (actually, make that all ) - he is unelectable as PM (imo)
                "I've got lots of potatos that need peeling and manure that needs shovelling" -M. Burns

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                  Originally posted by SkullinPints View Post

                  Only if Labour can rid themselves of Corbyn soon - a lot of middle ground Labour abhor him (actually, make that all ) - he is unelectable as PM (imo)
                  How are you defining Middle Ground though? The reality is that the sort of Lib Dem lite centrist type that has the greatest issue with Corbyn a) aren't as great in number as they imagine and b) are increasingly politically irrelevant. This has been demonstrated by those that split into the Change/Independent Group/Independent Group for Change/Independent Change front of Judea and promptly vanished.

                  They held a particular prominence during the era of the Blair/Clinton triangulation due to how FPTP works, but the ground has shifted around them and now the electorate is more fragmented and no longer has a single, central fulcrum. Unfortunately they still hold the (frankly bizarre) view that they're not a minority ideological group, and somehow speak for the nation. Most of the noise is them railing against the dying of the light. And not just in the UK - they're mewling and squeaking in the Presidential debates in the US at the moment too as Sanders and Warren blow holes in them.

                  Corbyn's personal polling is weak (which is unsurprising given the all out assault on him in the media) but if Labour adopt an unambiguous remain and reform platform then the next government either be a minority Labour administration or a Labour led coalition. There remains a desire in the electorate for things to be done differently, and the Centre Right, including those in the Labour Party, don't have an answer for it.

                  "We will not walk in fear, one of another. We will not be driven into an age of unreason if we dig deep into our history and remember we are not descended from fearful men" Edward R Murrow

                  "Little by little, we have been brought into the present condition in which we are able neither to tolerate the evils from which we suffer, nor the remedies we need to cure them." - Livy


                  "I think that progress has been made by two flames that have always been burning in the human heart. The flame of anger against injustice and the flame of hope that you can build a better world" - Tony Benn

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                    The DUPE are whining about Leo being confrontational. That's like Yosemite Sam telling somebody not to be so tetchy.

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                      Made me laugh
                      Excellence is hard to keep quite - Sherrie Coale

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                        Originally posted by Balla Boy

                        Corbyn's personal polling is weak (which is unsurprising given the all out assault on him in the media) but if Labour adopt an unambiguous remain and reform platform then the next government either be a minority Labour administration or a Labour led coalition. There remains a desire in the electorate for things to be done differently, and the Centre Right, including those in the Labour Party, don't have an answer for it.
                        The problem is that they have not yet adopted an unambiguous remain and reform platform, and even if they did that now many Labour people can trust Corbyn to deliver it?

                        I would fear that if there is an election in September, Labour will lose substantially but perhaps can do enough to be the second party in a coalition.

                        But then again I am looking at this from afar - you have a fairly deep knowledge and understanding.

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                          Originally posted by Balla Boy View Post

                          How are you defining Middle Ground though? The reality is that the sort of Lib Dem lite centrist type that has the greatest issue with Corbyn a) aren't as great in number as they imagine and b) are increasingly politically irrelevant. This has been demonstrated by those that split into the Change/Independent Group/Independent Group for Change/Independent Change front of Judea and promptly vanished.

                          They held a particular prominence during the era of the Blair/Clinton triangulation due to how FPTP works, but the ground has shifted around them and now the electorate is more fragmented and no longer has a single, central fulcrum. Unfortunately they still hold the (frankly bizarre) view that they're not a minority ideological group, and somehow speak for the nation. Most of the noise is them railing against the dying of the light. And not just in the UK - they're mewling and squeaking in the Presidential debates in the US at the moment too as Sanders and Warren blow holes in them.

                          Corbyn's personal polling is weak (which is unsurprising given the all out assault on him in the media) but if Labour adopt an unambiguous remain and reform platform then the next government either be a minority Labour administration or a Labour led coalition. There remains a desire in the electorate for things to be done differently, and the Centre Right, including those in the Labour Party, don't have an answer for it.
                          The FPTP system and the rise of both the Brexit Party and the Lib Dems, Greens and Nationalists in recent elections (local and European) makes predicting the outcome of a GE a total mugs game. Cummings and Crosby have been quite good a running campaigns over the past decade and given the fragmentation of the electorate the Tories winning an overall majority in the HoC on the back of less than 30% of the national vote is not impossible. It is impossible for Labour as they simply are not going to take enough seats from the SNP to maximize the seat bounce of a 29% national vote. A Lab/LD/SNP +++ administration would collapse before it could even rerun a referendum pushing the UK back into the hands of the Tories.

                          The idea that it is possible to create a left wing government built around Corbyn and McDonnell in the UK in the next decade is every bit as delusional as Chuka/Adonis/Swinson notion of a "third way" taking hold. Neither are anywhere close to credible. The proponents of both fantasies need to wake the f*ck up and realize that unless they work together the UK is being handed over to the likes of Rees-Mogg and Farage. This has implications for the welfare of all Europeans. Talk of Labour Party members and elected representatives being "centre right" is just SWP horsesh!t and frankly beneath you..

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                            Lib Dems take Brecon and Radnorshire By Election.

                            Labour come fourth on 5.3%

                            Plaid Cymru and the Greens did not field a candidate to give Remain candidates a better chance of winning.

                            Boris's majority is down to one.
                            Last edited by Piquet; 2nd-August-2019, 09:05.

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                              Some really great twitter threads over the last few days. Required reading imho.


                              1. David Henig (UK Trade Policy expert) on why the backstop is not annexation, might be undemocratic but that could be negotiated by a mature UK Government, and is required because of history, identity and normal border procedures

                              https://threadreaderapp.com/thread/1...652701697.html


                              2. Katy Howard (QUB) on what the backstop actually is

                              https://threadreaderapp.com/thread/1...142533632.html


                              3.Peter Foster (Telegraph) on the politics of no deal and the Tory approach

                              https://threadreaderapp.com/thread/1...942892544.html
                              Last edited by The Last Stand; 2nd-August-2019, 09:46.

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                                Last night to be just the first of a bonanza of Doris inspired and engineered fiascoes that will warm the cockles of our hearts to the music of the ERGs wailing about the betrayal of Democracy.

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