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Brexit referendum and negotiations 2016-18

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    Originally posted by tippete7trees View Post
    There's a very very strong likelihood that the pig ignorance of right wing Brits, which visited pillage and slaughter around the world over centuries is marching headless chickenlike towards the calamity of Scottish independence, Irish unity, no Brexit and the end of the Tory party.
    You seem to be well informed T7T, whats your likeliest outcome here? I am astounded at the arrogance of the Brits, they really are a posh bunch of twats on one side and a useless opposition with a loser leader. Rory Stewart already destroying Boris in public saying that Boris privately reassured him recently that he would not push for no deal were he to gain power and now Boris is coming out saying he will leave with or without a deal. This whole thing is deeply regrettable.
    \"Only Pienaar, Botha and Ferris would be in contention for a place on our first 15. That\'s a fact.\" - Tickettout\'s take on Ulster April 2011.

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      Originally posted by Talking Sense View Post

      You seem to be well informed T7T, whats your likeliest outcome here? I am astounded at the arrogance of the Brits, they really are a posh bunch of twats on one side and a useless opposition with a loser leader. Rory Stewart already destroying Boris in public saying that Boris privately reassured him recently that he would not push for no deal were he to gain power and now Boris is coming out saying he will leave with or without a deal. This whole thing is deeply regrettable.
      Flattery will get you everywhere........I see the core of the problem for the Tories is that the party is hopelessly split. The Brexiteers over estimate their value to the EU and continue to think a better deal is out there. But the EU cannot afford to ditch Ireland as this would destabilize it fatally. There a big British voter constituency who don't like the EU and they are cheerleading the ERG lemmings to the cliff. Even if Doris is bluffing.........that will end in a slaughter at the next election. Conservatives see the world as evil (a lot of projection in that) and plan to get their retaliation in first which often becomes a self fulfilling prophecy (Iraq invasion). The EU is one of those 'progressive' ideas that we would have to invent if we didn't have it. The ERGs are certain the EU is on the point of collapse, another fatal delusion (and projection). I don't think they (Tories) can save themselves. It will be like the collapse of the Liberal party. Suddenly irrelevant. Interesting times. Scotland going independent will put the spotlight on NI. Corbyn, while ideologically over rigid, is actually a genuine humanist and might do very well as PM. That would finish the mad dogs once and for all.

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        Haha I really enjoyed that, excellent post thanks
        \"Only Pienaar, Botha and Ferris would be in contention for a place on our first 15. That\'s a fact.\" - Tickettout\'s take on Ulster April 2011.

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          But Corbyn doesnt have any charisma or presence, the fact that he hasnt achieved a general election is an indictment of his ability. What do you think is the likeliest outcome of it all? I would love a 2nd referendum.
          \"Only Pienaar, Botha and Ferris would be in contention for a place on our first 15. That\'s a fact.\" - Tickettout\'s take on Ulster April 2011.

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            There is little chance of a 2nd referendum imho.

            Boris may call an early GE, which he would win handsomely. Once he has a proper mandate I think you'll see some sort of deal be hammered out.

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              I hope you're not on the turn Fitzy. And becoming a Tory.

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                Not much chance of that. Just looking at recent polling, which shows:

                Current - LAB win, short of majority by 36 seats
                • Boris Johnson - CON win, majority of 140
                • Dominic Raab - CON win, short by 57 seats
                • Sajid Javid - LAB win, short by 69 seats
                • Michael Gove - LAB win, short by 73 seats
                • Jeremy Hunt - LAB win, short 84 seats

                Given that polling, and the fact that it's unclear whether he could form a govt, why wouldn't be call an election?
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                  Most likely that will change when the public find out the EU won't even meet Doris and the backstop is still there. Parliament will block no deal and..............the sound of manic laughter will be heard from maison chez Theresa.

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                    Early election, win a majority (not 140, but 30 - 40) and he has a mandate for a no deal. If parliament won't play ball he will prologue it.

                    He genuinely sees himself as a latter day Churchill.
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                      I think you might be underestimating the size of the Tory group that won't serve under Doris deal or no deal, Fitzy. I think there's a very decent chance he won't make it to the last 2. There's also a rogue element to the polls because of public frustration at politicians and when they actually vote it might go different.

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                        That polling is deeply sketchy Torygraph propaganda, to be honest. They're pulling hard for Boris, and monstering his opponents. Now they've got Comres to pull this nonsense together.

                        Asking voters to predict their own response to a hypothetical general election with different hypothetical leaders at some point in the future, and then using that for seat projections? You could get to any number you like, really.

                        I'm very wary of predicting anything at the moment. Would a GE be before or after Brexit? Grieve is talking about collapsing the Govt to prevent no deal, and I think he's serious.

                        "We will not walk in fear, one of another. We will not be driven into an age of unreason if we dig deep into our history and remember we are not descended from fearful men" Edward R Murrow

                        "Little by little, we have been brought into the present condition in which we are able neither to tolerate the evils from which we suffer, nor the remedies we need to cure them." - Livy


                        "I think that progress has been made by two flames that have always been burning in the human heart. The flame of anger against injustice and the flame of hope that you can build a better world" - Tony Benn

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                          Originally posted by Balla Boy View Post
                          That polling is deeply sketchy Torygraph propaganda, to be honest. They're pulling hard for Boris, and monstering his opponents. Now they've got Comres to pull this nonsense together.

                          Asking voters to predict their own response to a hypothetical general election with different hypothetical leaders at some point in the future, and then using that for seat projections? You could get to any number you like, really.

                          I'm very wary of predicting anything at the moment. Would a GE be before or after Brexit? Grieve is talking about collapsing the Govt to prevent no deal, and I think he's serious.
                          Wise words. See, those brain tablets do work

                          The Tory party is fatally split. It's similar to the collapse of the (original) Liberals. Asquith wanted a civilised WW1 but the public didn't care. Lloyd George faced reality and took to the Tories for a workable government. After that the former Liberal voters went to Labour and the Libs never recovered.
                          The Brexiteers are truly chasing illusions. The iceberg the SS Brexit is coming towards is that the EU has to allow a 'no deal' for many reasons. Not least it would be infinitely more disastrous for the UK than the EU. They will not compromise on the 'Backstop', in fact they might well tell Doris not to bother even coming for talks just to make it more clear, if he's PM. In the end it might well bring the UK back in the EU. So, everybody's a winner
                          That conservative constituency who won't accept the EU are deluded like Asquith, AND (it's a visceral thing) reasoning won't work on them. But there's almost certainly a majority for 'Remain' (in fact, 'Leave' probably won originally due to complacency on the 'Remain' side). So the tide is against the ERGs.
                          The sensible wing of the Tories will defy anything to stop a 'no deal'. It'd be like voting to attack Russia, just it's not that clear to the brexit voters.
                          Doris fancies herself as Churchill. But really she's Asquith.

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                            https://www.theguardian.com/politics...eal-government

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                              Originally posted by tippete7trees View Post
                              I think you might be underestimating the size of the Tory group that won't serve under Doris deal or no deal, Fitzy. I think there's a very decent chance he won't make it to the last 2. There's also a rogue element to the polls because of public frustration at politicians and when they actually vote it might go different.
                              Boris will win in a landslide. The notion that he won't make the final two is for the birds.

                              I think the Telegraph poll is wrong as well, but I do think he would win a GE. The press will push the "reds under the bed" narrative about Corbyn, and further it's unlikely that the Labour party will have clearly pivoted to a 2nd ref by then. In such an instance tbe LDs will win a bunch of seats and could be kingmakers.
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                                Originally posted by fitzy73 View Post

                                Boris will win in a landslide. The notion that he won't make the final two is for the birds.

                                I think the Telegraph poll is wrong as well, but I do think he would win a GE. The press will push the "reds under the bed" narrative about Corbyn, and further it's unlikely that the Labour party will have clearly pivoted to a 2nd ref by then. In such an instance tbe LDs will win a bunch of seats and could be kingmakers.
                                Yep, they got their (lame) ducks in a row there. But it'll be short termed joy.
                                Last edited by tippete7trees; Yesterday, 14:55.

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