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    Originally posted by tippete7trees View Post
    There will be no 'no deal' Brexit PM. If there is an election - there will be no Tory gov, If no election a parliamentary revolt will block a no deal scenario, whatever device they pull out to block that. There is a big parliamentary majority against no deal and the EU doesn't want it either. They will find a way to block it.
    re. "There will be no 'no deal' Brexit PM"

    The bookies suggest otherwise...

    What is the basis for your statement?

    After having their arshes kicked by the Brexit Party difficult to see anything other than Brexiteer getting elected Tory leader PM.
    ​​​​​​#GiveLeinsterTheHCupNow

    Originally Posted by mr chips
    AG gets the responses he does because he is a journalist..

    Comment


      If there is an election this will end in a coalition government led by Labour. Farago's party is only looking good because the Brexit voters are motivated to protest, which is what EU elections can be sometimes. The bookies are a very good barometer usually but you need to understand the context. Their odds are determined by betting patterns so they are often enough wrong because popular opinion is wrong and also usually formed by past events that might not apply now. I believe this is the end of the Tory party as a major force. The ERGs are away with the fairies and don't have the numbers to force a no deal Brexit. They are stuck since any deal that contains the backstop is actually a sort of EU membership but worse than proper membership so they cannot compromise but......they will not have the numbers to get their way so a disastrous split is immanent. Both sides of the Tory part are heading for the cliff and cannot stop. BTW, the EU deadline for Oct is NOT really set in stone, it is a devise to stop May hanging on with rolling cliff edges and force the Brits to try something else. If there is a no deal PM with no GE, parliament will stop him from forcing a no deal exit. This will precipitate a GE anyway followed by a non Tory gov.

      Comment


        The most likely timeline is that BJ gets elected PM and then tries and fails to get concessions to the agreement. No deal will surely be voted down, so the govt collapses.

        BJ will have no option but to go to the country. The Tories will deselect any moderates, so they will win back the hardcore Brexit vote.

        The key is Labour. What will they do? Will Watson or Starmer make a move on JC before any election? If they do they will win an election by a country mile.
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        Comment


          Originally posted by tippete7trees View Post
          If there is an election this will end in a coalition government led by Labour. Farago's party is only looking good because the Brexit voters are motivated to protest, which is what EU elections can be sometimes. The bookies are a very good barometer usually but you need to understand the context. Their odds are determined by betting patterns so they are often enough wrong because popular opinion is wrong and also usually formed by past events that might not apply now. I believe this is the end of the Tory party as a major force. The ERGs are away with the fairies and don't have the numbers to force a no deal Brexit. They are stuck since any deal that contains the backstop is actually a sort of EU membership but worse than proper membership so they cannot compromise but......they will not have the numbers to get their way so a disastrous split is immanent. Both sides of the Tory part are heading for the cliff and cannot stop. BTW, the EU deadline for Oct is NOT really set in stone, it is a devise to stop May hanging on with rolling cliff edges and force the Brits to try something else. If there is a no deal PM with no GE, parliament will stop him from forcing a no deal exit. This will precipitate a GE anyway followed by a non Tory gov.
          I hope you are right, but it seems to me you are predicting what you want to happen. A very common occurrence in the world of predicting.

          re. "The bookies are a very good barometer usually but you need to understand the context. Their odds are determined by betting patterns so they are often enough wrong because popular opinion is wrong and also usually formed by past events that might not apply now"

          I have to confess to quite an (over) familiarity with these matters.
          ​​​​​​#GiveLeinsterTheHCupNow

          Originally Posted by mr chips
          AG gets the responses he does because he is a journalist..

          Comment


            Originally posted by AdolphusGrigson View Post

            I hope you are right, but it seems to me you are predicting what you want to happen. A very common occurrence in the world of predicting.

            re. "The bookies are a very good barometer usually but you need to understand the context. Their odds are determined by betting patterns so they are often enough wrong because popular opinion is wrong and also usually formed by past events that might not apply now"

            I have to confess to quite an (over) familiarity with these matters.
            That is no doubt true but the salient issue here is an existential crisis in the Tory party. There is no practical, unbiased and experienced commentator who takes the economic/political arguments of the ERG seriously. They equate membership if the EU as some sort of subordination that they think they must escape from, it's an instinctive thing, a perverse form of tribalism. They rationalise a no deal Brexit on many grounds, one being that the EU is doomed anyway. But Tories with common sense see the catastrophic fiasco the reality of a no deal Brexit would be . There no reconciliation possible here and the ERG will bring the Tories down. It's almost a death cult like Daesh. There will be a GE before long and the Tories will be destroyed because there's not enough hard core Brexiteer voters out there to save them. My gut instinct is there will be a 2nd referendum and a cancellation of the withdrawl. BTW, this Wednesday's winning Lotto numbers will be 1,4,11, 22, 34, 38 for those of you short of cash.

            Comment


              I don't think so. I think if the Brexit party plus other associated parties - UKIP SDP etc win 40% then with BJ as PM, I can't see the UK voting to extend Article 50 in October. Equally I think with Macron and a few others I think the EU will not chase them. For me the odds of a no deal are about 70%. If there was a strong voice for remain we should be hearing it now for these elections. We aren't. Remain, and even a managed leave are gone, gone with O'Leary in the grave.
              Seven social sins: politics without principles, wealth without work, pleasure without conscience, knowledge without character, commerce without morality, science without humanity, and worship without sacrifice



              Comment


                Originally posted by scotscor View Post
                I don't think so. I think if the Brexit party plus other associated parties - UKIP SDP etc win 40% then with BJ as PM, I can't see the UK voting to extend Article 50 in October. Equally I think with Macron and a few others I think the EU will not chase them. For me the odds of a no deal are about 70%. If there was a strong voice for remain we should be hearing it now for these elections. We aren't. Remain, and even a managed leave are gone, gone with O'Leary in the grave.
                Boris will try to avoid a vote and it will then require a vote of no confidence. DUP in the bag but hopefully a few Tories will jump ship sign up to Change UK and force a GE.

                EU elections will probably show a majority for Remain assuming Labour say something on 2nd referendum before EU elections - and if so that should indicate likely outcome of GE.

                ​​​​​​#GiveLeinsterTheHCupNow

                Originally Posted by mr chips
                AG gets the responses he does because he is a journalist..

                Comment


                  It looks like May will be gone by the end of the weekend at the latest.

                  https://www.independent.co.uk/news/u...-a8926426.html
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                  Comment


                    Originally posted by fitzy73 View Post
                    The most likely timeline is that BJ gets elected PM and then tries and fails to get concessions to the agreement. No deal will surely be voted down, so the govt collapses.

                    BJ will have no option but to go to the country. The Tories will deselect any moderates, so they will win back the hardcore Brexit vote.

                    The key is Labour. What will they do? Will Watson or Starmer make a move on JC before any election? If they do they will win an election by a country mile.

                    I don't think Boris can become PM without a GE. This govt has lost 41 ministers since 2017, and he's hated by large swathes of the parliamentary Tory party. He can't just step into the role, as far as I understand it - in order to be PM he would have to demonstrate that he can form a govt that can pass govt business. May's govt declined to present a Queen's Speech, and lost its own Finance Bill.

                    I can't see how, vague as the UK constitution is, the current configuration of the Tory Govt could be seen to be viable. It's passed no legislation of any note for how long now?

                    A few Tories have said they'll depart if Boris is leader. If that happens (and Tories talk rebellion a lot more ferociously than they actually rebel) then a GE is inevitable. I suspect it's inevitable anyway.

                    And I don't think the Tory Party can win a GE.
                    "We will not walk in fear, one of another. We will not be driven into an age of unreason if we dig deep into our history and remember we are not descended from fearful men" Edward R Murrow

                    "Little by little, we have been brought into the present condition in which we are able neither to tolerate the evils from which we suffer, nor the remedies we need to cure them." - Livy


                    "I think that progress has been made by two flames that have always been burning in the human heart. The flame of anger against injustice and the flame of hope that you can build a better world" - Tony Benn

                    Comment


                      Can we consider that the end of May on the 24th is a consequence of global warming or is it a local phenomenon due to the boiling minds in UK?..
                      "To be energetic and self-sufficing is to be happy; but while one desire remains in the heart happiness may not come there. For to desire is to be incomplete: it is the badge of dependence, the signal of unhappiness, and to be freed from that is to be freed from every fetter that can possibly be forged." (James Stephens, Deirdre)

                      Comment


                        Originally posted by Balla Boy View Post


                        I don't think Boris can become PM without a GE. This govt has lost 41 ministers since 2017, and he's hated by large swathes of the parliamentary Tory party. He can't just step into the role, as far as I understand it - in order to be PM he would have to demonstrate that he can form a govt that can pass govt business. May's govt declined to present a Queen's Speech, and lost its own Finance Bill.

                        I can't see how, vague as the UK constitution is, the current configuration of the Tory Govt could be seen to be viable. It's passed no legislation of any note for how long now?

                        A few Tories have said they'll depart if Boris is leader. If that happens (and Tories talk rebellion a lot more ferociously than they actually rebel) then a GE is inevitable. I suspect it's inevitable anyway.

                        And I don't think the Tory Party can win a GE.
                        Hmm. Thats a point.

                        How would it work though? Labour would have to table a motion of no confidence, and rely on the support of the 60 or so One Nation Tories. Those 60 would effectively be signing their own de-selection letters by voting against the party.

                        I do agree that there will be GE in the near future - just not sure it will be before Boris has a few monhts talking to Barnier.

                        And on a GE, god only knows what will happen, I saw a poll yesterday that showed Labour +14 points to mid 30s if they include (and by include I maen shout it from the rooftops) that they support a 2nd ref. But sadly they are too ideologically tone deaf at the top to listen to reason.

                        The thought of the Brexit party holding the balance of power is utterly, utterly terrifying.
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                        Comment


                          Originally posted by fitzy73 View Post

                          Hmm. Thats a point.

                          How would it work though? Labour would have to table a motion of no confidence, and rely on the support of the 60 or so One Nation Tories. Those 60 would effectively be signing their own de-selection letters by voting against the party.

                          I do agree that there will be GE in the near future - just not sure it will be before Boris has a few monhts talking to Barnier.

                          And on a GE, god only knows what will happen, I saw a poll yesterday that showed Labour +14 points to mid 30s if they include (and by include I maen shout it from the rooftops) that they support a 2nd ref. But sadly they are too ideologically tone deaf at the top to listen to reason.

                          The thought of the Brexit party holding the balance of power is utterly, utterly terrifying.

                          Farage has been in this position before with UKIP, and couldn't win a parliamentary seat. I think they'd come second in a fair few places, but FPTP holds them in check.

                          I think the actual business of ousting the Tories will be complex. One option is that Labour moves to revoke the fixed term parliament act. Other than that, yes, some turkeys may have to vote for Christmas.

                          I don't even see how the Tories can survive having a leadership election at this point. I know we've become accustomed to their chaos, but today - on an election day - there are cabinet ministers quitting and senior figures demanding meetings with the PM. Even as they're out asking people to vote for them.
                          "We will not walk in fear, one of another. We will not be driven into an age of unreason if we dig deep into our history and remember we are not descended from fearful men" Edward R Murrow

                          "Little by little, we have been brought into the present condition in which we are able neither to tolerate the evils from which we suffer, nor the remedies we need to cure them." - Livy


                          "I think that progress has been made by two flames that have always been burning in the human heart. The flame of anger against injustice and the flame of hope that you can build a better world" - Tony Benn

                          Comment


                            Originally posted by Balla Boy View Post


                            Farage has been in this position before with UKIP, and couldn't win a parliamentary seat. I think they'd come second in a fair few places, but FPTP holds them in check.

                            I think the actual business of ousting the Tories will be complex. One option is that Labour moves to revoke the fixed term parliament act. Other than that, yes, some turkeys may have to vote for Christmas.

                            I don't even see how the Tories can survive having a leadership election at this point. I know we've become accustomed to their chaos, but today - on an election day - there are cabinet ministers quitting and senior figures demanding meetings with the PM. Even as they're out asking people to vote for them.
                            FPTP issues work both ways though. While it can prevent a party with 15% of the vote from getting any seats it can also catapult a Party with 35% of the vote into an overall majority. Nobody expected UKIP to replicate the 2014 Euro results in a GE. It was a protest vote at austerity and Cameron blinked. If the Brexit Party get 30-35% of the vote in theis EP election they start to become a realistic force in a GE and will win seats. The Tories will be in total disarray. There is an outcome where Labour and the LbDem step in and win a whole swathe of safe Tory seats in the midlands and southwest respectively if the Tory vote holds at 50% rather than collapsing. There is an equally possible outcome where Labour/LibDem/Green competition + total Tory collapse allows the Brexit Party to win those seats while also taking safe Labour seats in the North East and Wales.

                            Its going to be a very scary few months ahead I don't see how it would be possible NOT to have a GE by year end and would expect it to happen in September/October. Some of those One Nation Tories will want to get on the LibDem bandwagon before a local candidates are selected - perhaps via ChangeUK as a stepping stone. Also the DUP don't really fear for their seats. Their individual majorities will hold even on a 3-4% swing to the UUP/Alliance. So for me the turkeys voting for Christmas thing doesn't hold.

                            Comment


                              An article in The Guardian explains EU citizens from abroad cannot vote today...
                              Compared to that, my son is in Germany since end of january for an internship. He received a certificate giving him a voter number allowing him to vote for EU elections till the end of his life if he is in Germany at these occasions. My wife is german, and she will vote with me next sunday. That's the rule in EU, and I cannot understand how this right his denied in UK. Shame on them. if it's indeed the case.
                              Last edited by JN.Allezdax.com; 23rd-May-2019, 16:30.
                              "To be energetic and self-sufficing is to be happy; but while one desire remains in the heart happiness may not come there. For to desire is to be incomplete: it is the badge of dependence, the signal of unhappiness, and to be freed from that is to be freed from every fetter that can possibly be forged." (James Stephens, Deirdre)

                              Comment


                                Originally posted by AwayFromHome View Post

                                FPTP issues work both ways though. While it can prevent a party with 15% of the vote from getting any seats it can also catapult a Party with 35% of the vote into an overall majority. Nobody expected UKIP to replicate the 2014 Euro results in a GE. It was a protest vote at austerity and Cameron blinked. If the Brexit Party get 30-35% of the vote in theis EP election they start to become a realistic force in a GE and will win seats. The Tories will be in total disarray. There is an outcome where Labour and the LbDem step in and win a whole swathe of safe Tory seats in the midlands and southwest respectively if the Tory vote holds at 50% rather than collapsing. There is an equally possible outcome where Labour/LibDem/Green competition + total Tory collapse allows the Brexit Party to win those seats while also taking safe Labour seats in the North East and Wales.

                                Its going to be a very scary few months ahead I don't see how it would be possible NOT to have a GE by year end and would expect it to happen in September/October. Some of those One Nation Tories will want to get on the LibDem bandwagon before a local candidates are selected - perhaps via ChangeUK as a stepping stone. Also the DUP don't really fear for their seats. Their individual majorities will hold even on a 3-4% swing to the UUP/Alliance. So for me the turkeys voting for Christmas thing doesn't hold.
                                Good analysis but there is zero chance of ex Tory MPs being selected by the Lib Dems. Change UK maybe, but they look like a spent force already.

                                The only saving grace in a GE is that the Tories will deselect any moderates and stuff the race with white, older, slightly xenophobic men. That'll take back the core 35% of hard core leavers from the Brexit Party.

                                If the Labour party can get rid of Corbyn and install someone sensible like Watson, they will absolutely walk a GE.

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