Announcement

Collapse
No announcement yet.

Brexit referendum and negotiations 2016-18

Collapse
X
  • Filter
  • Time
  • Show
Clear All
new posts

    Originally posted by the plastic paddy View Post
    My prediction is they will back the withdrawal agreement, avoiding the EP election, she will resign, a nutter will take over and call an election for the autumn running on a ticket to tear up the WA. I can’t see a GE unless and until a new Tory leader is in place.
    "running on a ticket to tear up the agreement" ........................there's more chance of Elvis Presley crashing a UFO, built by bigfoot in his garage, into the Lock Ness monster than that ticket will deliver the Tories an election win.

    Comment


      Labour will hopefully hold out for a referendum to rubber-stamp May's deal plus some sort of CU.

      If they don't hold out for a referendumr they will be crucified outside of the North. Equally the Tories will be sesriously split if they agree a deal with Labour which involves the CU.

      Both parties are trapped by mutual animosity and divisions amongst their supporters so possibly parliament can have more advisory votes which will end up with the (not a) CU with a referendum.

      The EU elections should be a good bell weather of support for a 2nd referendum.....assuming the Labour Party actually make their position clear beforehand.



      ​​​​​​#GiveLeinsterTheHCupNow

      Originally Posted by mr chips
      AG gets the responses he does because he is a journalist..

      Comment


        Owen Smith writing in today's Graun:

        The numbers don’t lie: Labour must back a people’s vote to win the next election

        The decision by the European Union to accept Theresa May’s call for an extension of the article 50 period means that for politicians and the public there is a brief and welcome break from Brexit-mania – and a chance to reflect on a route out of our current cul-de-sac. For Labour, this should focus on the electoral impact of the Brexit position we ultimately adopt. The strategy of constructive ambiguity that has allowed the party to look both ways on Brexit since 2016, sustaining a coalition of leave and remain voters, has now run out of road. The pitiless gaze of the public in the forthcoming European elections will melt Labour’s fudge.

        For a few Bennite nostalgics, the rationale for this hedging is ideological – an attempt to maintain their fantasy of a leftwing Brexit, or Lexit, in which we’d be free from the EU’s falsely ascribed neoliberalism. But for others, it is rooted in wholly reasonable concerns about how a pro-people’s vote agenda would affect Labour’s vote, especially in constituencies where a majority opted to leave. The claim of MPs such as John Mann in Bassetlaw or Caroline Flint in Don Valley is, in essence, that “working-class” Labour voters would abandon us if we were seen to block the 2016 referendum result, thus denying Labour power for generations to come.

        It is a powerful, emotional argument, of course, especially in a party born out of the working class. But it is not an argument supported by engagement with the facts. The facts are quite clear and have been repeatedly reinforced by polling evidence and analysis, most recently in the work of Christina Pagel and Christabel Cooper in research funded by University College London. Their polling of over 5,000 people shows that, on average, about two-thirds of Labour voters across the UK voted remain in 2016, ranging from 74% in London to 66% in Scotland and 59% in the Midlands.

        Those majorities are big enough for the psephologists to agree that, in practically every current Labour seat, most of our voters voted remain. Meaning that the biggest threat we face in retaining support is losing remain voters disillusioned by our prevarication on a people’s vote. That fact also applies to the 80 seats that Labour has to win at the next election if we are to form a majority. Arguably, more so, as almost half of those target seats voted remain overall in 2016, whereas 60% of the seats we hold voted leave.

        The UCL analysis shows that in every region of the UK, the majority of voters who put a cross next to Labour in the general election of 2017 but say they won’t vote Labour next time, are switching to a party they see as more pro-European. In London, where Labour dominated in 2017, a third of Labour voters who know how they intend to vote now say they will vote for another party, but voters switching to a party seen as more pro-remain outnumber those switching to a more pro-leave party by five to one. In the north of England, the number switching is fewer, at just 20% – but again the number switching to a more pro-remain party outnumber those switching to the Tories or Ukip by four to one.

        In the Midlands, where a quarter of Labour voters say they are switching, remainers outnumber leavers by five to one. Starkest of all is Scotland, where Labour must win 23 of those 80 seats to form a government. There, 48% of our 2017 voters now say they plan to defect, 45% to a more pro-remain party, just 3% the other way – a ratio of 15 to one.

        But will moving towards a people’s vote and remain alienate Labour’s leave voters? Pagel and Cooper’s work shows that Labour leave voters are much more likely to have changed their minds on Brexit than any other voters. By contrast, our remain voter base are barely changing their minds at all. Of Labour’s 2017 support who voted to leave, the UCL analysis shows 18% have now shifted to remain. That stands in stark contrast to the position among Tory voters, of whom just 4% have switched from leave to remain, against 28% of Tory remainers who now want the hardest of Brexits.

        The study suggests that finances are the reason for this change of heart among almost a fifth of Labour’s leave voters. Struggling leave voters who voted Labour in 2017 fear the financial consequences of Brexit. Labour has far more to lose by equivocating on Brexit than we have to gain by “respecting the referendum”.

        One of the few truisms to emerge from the Brexit saga is that there are no perfect political choices to be made by either party. The Conservative party is split between 44% at one end of the spectrum, who want to cleave the waters of the English Channel with the hardest of Brexits, and 20% at the other, who still want to remain. For Labour, however, the numbers should stiffen the resolve of our leadership to take a clearer position; pro-people’s vote and remain. The numbers should also give succour to those who fear Labour leave-voter support is hardening against us, especially in constituencies that voted overall to leave.

        For us, there clearly are some choices that are better in terms of electoral self-interest. At the last election, we put off making those choices, seeking to look both ways on Brexit, and to some extent, it worked, with 8 million remain voters and 4 million leavers putting their cross next to Labour. But that coalition could not be sustained through a European poll, another six months of Brexit chaos and into the general election that surely must come before the year is out. The time has come for Labour to decide which way to face.

        Many Labour men and women believe that our values should always have made that an obvious choice, but electoral calculus always plays a part in political decision-making. Fear that Labour will lose the next election if it stands firm for a people’s vote and a chance for voters to reassess has clearly played a part in our prevarication. But the numbers don’t lie. Labour has much more to lose than we might win by acquiescing in Brexit, or worse, enabling it. We are a remain party in our hearts and in our heartlands and the route to winning the next election is to be true to both and support the people’s right to change their mind.

        • Owen Smith is Labour MP for Pontypridd
        Tis but a scratch.

        Comment


          Pelosi and US Congress again state that No Free trade deal for the UK unless GFA is fully maintained (ie: an open border on the island) No mention in the UK (Brexit) press, surprisingly..
          Nulla semper amicus, servivit mihi, in iniuriam mihi neminem quem non persolvi

          Comment


            It’s great to see her taking a strong stance on this
            "There are a lot of points that we’ve left behind and this is with a young group. That probably tells you what they’re capable of and that they’re a very good side.

            Probably next year or the year after next they will take some stopping"

            Anthony Foley, May 2016. Axel RIP

            Comment


              Originally posted by Sulla View Post
              Pelosi and US Congress again state that No Free trade deal for the UK unless GFA is fully maintained (ie: an open border on the island) No mention in the UK (Brexit) press, surprisingly..
              Even the Guardian seemed to miss it. Channel 4 News (always excellent) picked it up.

              Comment


                RIP Lyra McKee. Without that fecking shambles, you would probably still be alive.Ce n'est PAS POSSIBLE, ils ne vont PAS recommencer?!!!!!!! Dead the day before the Good Friday... Let's pray (I am atheist...) they did not open the Pandora Box again.
                Last edited by JN.Allezdax.com; 19th-April-2019, 19:48.
                "To be energetic and self-sufficing is to be happy; but while one desire remains in the heart happiness may not come there. For to desire is to be incomplete: it is the badge of dependence, the signal of unhappiness, and to be freed from that is to be freed from every fetter that can possibly be forged." (James Stephens, Deirdre)

                Comment


                  This is a very good article. Her point about the BBC is a particular irritation for me. The Remain side of this business have been so serially incompetent it almost defies belief. Farage topping the EP elections should make the EU finally realise that they need to be shot of the UK or they will end up with the ulcerous sore that is the Brexit party inspiring every other disaffected nut job across the continent. https://www.theguardian.com/commenti...e_iOSApp_Other

                  Comment


                    Originally posted by the plastic paddy View Post
                    This is a very good article. Her point about the BBC is a particular irritation for me. The Remain side of this business have been so serially incompetent it almost defies belief. Farage topping the EP elections should make the EU finally realise that they need to be shot of the UK or they will end up with the ulcerous sore that is the Brexit party inspiring every other disaffected nut job across the continent. https://www.theguardian.com/commenti...e_iOSApp_Other
                    Sky news is generally better than the BBC....

                    All that is happening with the Brexit Party is that a bunch of people who.thought the Tories would deliver Brexit have switched sides.

                    A long as Labour declare for a 2nd rererndum then the combined 2nd referendum vote should 'win' the Euros and the pressure will be seriously on for a 2nd vote - and the Brexit party having the most seats should be irrelevant.
                    ​​​
                    ​​​​​​#GiveLeinsterTheHCupNow

                    Originally Posted by mr chips
                    AG gets the responses he does because he is a journalist..

                    Comment


                      Originally posted by AdolphusGrigson View Post

                      Sky news is generally better than the BBC....

                      All that is happening with the Brexit Party is that a bunch of people who.thought the Tories would deliver Brexit have switched sides.

                      A long as Labour declare for a 2nd rererndum then the combined 2nd referendum vote should 'win' the Euros and the pressure will be seriously on for a 2nd vote - and the Brexit party having the most seats should be irrelevant.
                      ​​​
                      I don’t think it will be irrelevant for Macron etc who had reservations about granting an extension a couple of weeks ago.

                      Comment


                        Originally posted by the plastic paddy View Post

                        I don’t think it will be irrelevant for Macron etc who had reservations about granting an extension a couple of weeks ago.
                        I agre but extension granted now.

                        Labour now need to get its act together.
                        ​​​​​​#GiveLeinsterTheHCupNow

                        Originally Posted by mr chips
                        AG gets the responses he does because he is a journalist..

                        Comment


                          Originally posted by AdolphusGrigson View Post

                          I agre but extension granted now.

                          Labour now need to get its act together.
                          Can’t think there is enough time for a referendum by October.

                          Comment


                            Originally posted by the plastic paddy View Post

                            Can’t think there is enough time for a referendum by October.
                            Tight. But the British have a weakness for extensions.
                            ​​​​​​#GiveLeinsterTheHCupNow

                            Originally Posted by mr chips
                            AG gets the responses he does because he is a journalist..

                            Comment


                              Originally posted by AdolphusGrigson View Post

                              Tight. But the British have a weakness for extensions.
                              Cannot see France allowing another extension, and they would be right.

                              Comment


                                Originally posted by the plastic paddy View Post

                                Cannot see France allowing another extension, and they would be right.
                                The next extension will only be a runner if there is a definite plan and will probably be signalled a few months out - June/July. I'd imagine MPs will not be going on summer holidays until the way forward settled.

                                France will not be seen as the country that blocks a 2nd referendum, but would correctly block (as would others) an extension for the sake of it.
                                ​​​​​​#GiveLeinsterTheHCupNow

                                Originally Posted by mr chips
                                AG gets the responses he does because he is a journalist..

                                Comment

                                Working...
                                X